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ArcelorMittal is considering shifting European support to India
ArcelorMittal, the second largest steelmaker in the world, said that it is looking at a possible shift of some European business support to India as the steel sector of the region faces increasing pressure due to high costs and increased imports. However, the company said that no steel production would be transferred from Europe to India. The steel industry in Europe has struggled against the oversupply of steel from China. Now, like all other exporters, they face 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum that President Donald Trump announced on Monday "without any exceptions or exclusions". Officials from the government said that India, whom Trump referred to as a "very large abuser" of trade, plans to offer tariff reductions in different sectors, which could increase U.S. exports and earn tariff concessions. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting the United States for talks with Trump this month. In an email statement, ArceloMittal said that the steel industry in Europe faces several major challenges. These are threatening to the future of the steelmaking on the continental continent. It said that it had been studying the expansion and centralisation of certain support functions in India. This was revealed during a European Works Council meeting held on Tuesday. The group said that the initiative was part of its ongoing efforts to optimize processes and align itself with similar moves made by companies in various industries. ArcelorMittal spokesperson said it is too early to give details about which functions or jobs might be affected. The European unit of the company is increasing efforts to reduce non-production costs in response to mounting pressures on the region’s steel industry. Already strained by China’s overcapacity, this sector faces an increased level of stress. Eurofer, Europe's largest steel industry group, has requested a 50% reduction in steel import quotas as part of the EU's protection system. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise; Anna Peverieri)
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Citadel's Griffin believes tariffs pose a risk to US economic growth
Ken Griffin, the founder and CEO at Citadel Investments, stated on Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s tariff policy was a threat to economic growth, and could force other countries into new trade alliances. He also criticized Trump’s "bombastic speech." He told a UBS Group conference that the uncertainty and chaos caused by the tariff dynamics created between the United States and its allies was a barrier to growth. It is difficult for multinationals to plan ahead for the next 5, 10, 15, or 20 years. Trump increased tariffs for steel and aluminum imports to 25% on Monday, "without any exceptions or exclusions," and added 10% on all Chinese goods. He also threatened Canada and Mexico. Griffin, who is a Republican and voted for Trump during the November election, criticizes some of Trump's policy, including tariffs and immigration. He believes that these policies could increase the U.S. debt and make American companies less productive and competitive. Griffin said that a tariff imposed on Canada's energy product could force Canada to diversify their customer base and look for new trading partners such as China. From my perspective, the damage is already done by the bombastic language. This is a terrible mistake when trying to negotiate a deal. It hammers into the heads of CEOs, and policymakers alike, that "we cannot depend on America as our trading partners." He said.
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EIA raises US oil production forecast for 2025
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook Report, released on Tuesday, said that the U.S. production of oil is expected to be higher than previous estimates. However, it did not change its forecast for growth in demand. The EIA now expects U.S. oil production will average 13,59 million barrels per daily (bpd) by 2025. This is up from the previous estimate of 13,55 million bpd. The agency maintained its estimate of U.S. petroleum and liquid fuel consumption at 20.5 millions bpd by 2025. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has pledged to maximize U.S. production while energy executives insist on capital discipline as a priority. The agency predicted that Brent crude prices will average $74 by 2025 but fall to $66 by 2026 due to a gradual increase in production and a relatively slow global demand growth. The EIA stated that OPEC+ will cut production to reduce global oil stocks and maintain crude oil prices at current levels until the first quarter 2025. OPEC+ is expected to increase their production of liquid fuels by 100,000 bpd. EIA reported that the group's production will rise by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, as it unwinds voluntary production cuts. However, they will still remain below their target levels to try and limit global oil inventory increases. Through 2026, the U.S.A., Canada Brazil and Guyana will drive output growth outside OPEC+. EIA stated that the global liquid fuels demand will increase by 1.4m bpd by 2025, and by 1m bpd by 2026. India and China are expected to lead this growth. The EIA stated that the growth is expected to continue at a slower pace than before the pandemic. EIA stated that any future tariffs imposed by Trump on Canada or Mexico are not expected to have a significant impact on global oil supplies. The agency also said the new U.S. Sanctions on Russia and tariffs were a source of uncertainty in oil prices. The EIA stated that the closing of two U.S. refining plants will result in a decrease in net U.S. fuel imports to meet domestic demand. Reporting by Arathy S. Somasekhar, Houston; Editing and rewriting by Mark Porter & David Gregorio
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Pentagon's Hegseth sees growth in defense spending despite Musk review
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated on Tuesday that he wished to increase the overall U.S. military spending. He also played down any concerns about an audit pending by Elon Musk, which is aimed at identifying billions in waste within the Pentagon. Hegseth, speaking in Germany on his first overseas trip, said that he was already in contact with Musk. He also expressed confidence in efforts to cut costs by billions of dollars and make the Pentagon more effective. Hegseth, speaking of Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, said: "There are plenty of places at the Pentagon where we would like the DOGE to keep a keen eye on things. But we will do this in coordination." We won't do anything that would compromise the operational or tactical capability of America. Hegseth, however, said that he had already been "intimately involved" with key committees of Congress regarding the bolstering of the U.S. Military. Musk's companies like SpaceX also have major contracts with Pentagon, raising significant concerns about conflict of interest. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has stated that Musk's DOGE will target the Pentagon first. The DOGE will then review U.S. defence spending after it completes cutting spending at the Department of Education. Musk is expected to uncover hundreds of billions in fraud and abuse within the Pentagon, according to Trump. Leaders across the political spectrum criticize the waste and inefficiency of the Defense Department. Democrats and civil servant unions claim that Musk does not have the expertise needed to restructure Pentagon and that their efforts could expose classified programs. Hegseth downplayed concerns about broad cuts to Pentagon agencies like those seen in the U.S. Agency for International Development by saying: "The Defense Department does not U.S. AID." "U.S. AID is having a lot problems... pursuing globalist policies that have no connection with America First. This is not the Defense Department." Hegseth said Musk could target Pentagon efforts related climate change without providing specifics. Hegseth stated, "I look forward to welcoming Elon at the Pentagon in the near future." Look at all the climate programs the Defense Department has pursued. The Defense Department's business is not to solve the problem of global warming. "We're in business to deter and win wars." Mike Waltz, Trump's National Security Advisor, suggested over the weekend that DOGE could have a particular interest in the Pentagon's processes for shipbuilding. The Pentagon budget is close to $1 trillion per annum. In December, the then-President Joe Biden approved $895 billion of defense spending for fiscal year ending on September 30. Hegseth said that defense spending should be increased, but he also acknowledged his concerns about the growing U.S. national debt which he called "a liability for national security." Hegseth stated, "I believe the U.S. should spend more than what the Biden Administration was willing to do. They historically underinvested into the capabilities of our Military." "The president, just as he did in his first term, is committed to investing in America's military." Hegseth stated that the U.S. defence spending should at least not fall below 3% GDP. According to the World Bank, which cites data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the United States will spend about 3.4% on defense by 2023. (Reporting and editing by Franklin Paul, Marguerita Choy and Idrees Al)
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US Treasury Secretary visits Ukraine to discuss rare earth minerals
Donald Trump announced on Twitter that U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent would be traveling to Ukraine in the next few days. This is the latest of a number of U.S. government officials who will be visiting Europe in the near future. Bessent will be the first cabinet level official from Trump's administration who visits Ukraine. He is expected to discuss the potential U.S. accessibility to Ukraine's rare-earth mineral resources. Both Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy have expressed an interest in a deal that would allow the United States to receive rare earths in exchange for continuing support in repelling invasions by Russia. Other U.S. officials who are traveling to Europe will be discussing the Ukraine War with Kyiv, and other European Allies. The group includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio as well as Vice President JDVance, Defense Sec Pete Hegseth, and Keith Kellogg the U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine. Trump said in a Truth Social posting announcing Bessent’s visit that the U.S. had spent billions of dollars globally, but with little to show for it. Rare earths is a grouping of metals that are used to produce magnets for electric cars, cell phones and missile systems. There are no substitutes and the demand is expected to increase. This week, it was reported that the Trump Administration plans to pressure European allies to purchase more American weapons for Ukraine in advance of possible peace talks with Moscow. (Reporting and editing by Don Durfee and Frances Kerry, Ni Williams and Nissa Williams.)
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Trump's tariffs are expected to have a 10% impact on the value of Spain’s steel and aluminium exports.
According to a Tuesday estimate by the Spanish Chamber of Commerce, the total value of Spanish exports of steel and aluminum to the United States may fall by 10.4% as a result of the new tariffs imposed on metals by President Donald Trump. The lobby stated in a note that "the change in the current trading scheme for aluminum and steel would be detrimental in aggregate terms to the productive fabric," adding that Spain's cast iron and steel total exports to the U.S. will reach 944 million euro ($977 millions) in 2023. The report states that a uniform 25% tariff on all countries and regions exporting goods - which Trump has indicated so far – would not be as damaging for Spain because the relative prices of commodities wouldn't change much. It cautioned, however, that "this wouldn't be the case if tariff increases were discriminatory by country or bloc". The 10.4% value reduction was also its initial estimate. Steel and aluminum tariffs will be in effect from March 12.
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US market watchdog wants to stop lawsuit over climate disclosures
The acting chair of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced on Tuesday that the agency is asking a judge to halt proceedings in a suit over a rule on climate disclosures, which was adopted by his predecessor and quickly stayed after controversy. In a press release, Republican Mark Uyeda, acting SEC chairman, stated that the rule was "deeply flawed" and would cause significant damage to our capital markets and economy. The SEC, under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler (a Democrat whose political party controlled three of the five positions), introduced a requirement that companies disclose a range of climate-related business risks, arguing that the information could prove material to investors. Gensler suspended the rule's entry into effect pending a judicial review after it was sued. Uyeda, in a statement, said that the rule is being challenged by a group of federal appeals courts. Uyeda stated that he asked the court to not take the next step in the process, given that the commission no longer has a Democrat as its chairperson and that Donald Trump ordered a rule-making freeze. The statement read: "I have instructed the Commission staff that they notify the Court and request the Court to not schedule the case to be argued to allow the Commission time to deliberate and determine what the next steps are in these cases." Virginia Furness, Isla Binne and David Evans contributed to the reporting.
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Aperam: Brussels must act in the event of a steel flood into EU as a result Trump tariffs
Aperam, a French steelmaker, called on Brussels on Tuesday to intervene and curb imports in the event that new 25% tariffs for all steel and aluminum imports to the United States cause companies to ship more goods to the European Union. The comments of the company highlight the concerns among European steelmakers over a possible new flood of cheap steel to the EU, as it happened in 2018, under the first Trump Presidency. ArcelorMittal - the second largest steelmaker in the world, from which Aperam was spun off in 2011 - called last week on the European Union (EU) to tighten up trade protection. Mittal Family remains largest shareholder in both companies, with approximately 40% of each. In 2018, the EU implemented safeguard measures in order to limit the amount tariff-free steel that enters the EU in order to prevent an import surge after U.S. Steel Tariffs were implemented by President Donald Trump, effectively closing the U.S. Market. According to World Trade Organization regulations, safeguards are only valid for eight years. This means they will expire during Trump's second presidential term, which is mid-2026. Stephane Sejourne, Executive Vice-President of the European Commission, said that in December he would examine ways to extend these measures as part a plan to protect this sector during its decarbonisation. Aperam, a manufacturer of stainless steels and specialty alloys, said, "Since 2018 we have managed the impact on the 25% duty. We work closely with our customers to come up with mutually acceptable solutions." Joe Biden, former president of the United States, negotiated duty-free agreements with Britain and other countries. "We also expect that the European Commission will take appropriate measures, as it did in 2018, to protect the interests of domestic steel producers if exports to the U.S. from third-country countries are diverted to the European Market." The bloc announced on Tuesday that it would take "firm and proportionate" countermeasures to the new tariffs. The EU's "Steel and Metals Action Plan", also known as the "Steel and Metals Action Plan", aims to streamline or delay certain Green Deal regulations, while promising to maintain EU climate goals and regulate imports via quotas. The plan will be unveiled in the Spring of 2025. Aperam CEO Tim di Maulo said in a Friday call with analysts that reducing steel imports wasn't the only thing that steelmakers wanted. Any review of safeguards that increased inefficiencies would also be a positive. (Reporting by Alessandro Parodi, editing by Alexandra Hudson)
South African rand stable, markets focused on Trump steel tariff impact
The rand of South Africa was flat on Monday as traders assessed the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports such as steel and aluminum, which could spark a multi-fronted trade war.
The rand was trading at the same level as its previous closing price of 18.45 USD/Rand.
Trump increased tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum to 25%, "without exceptions or exclusions", on Monday. The aim was to boost production in the largest economy.
ETM Analytics stated in a research report that South Africa will be "minimally affected".
The note stated that "for now, USD-ZAR is likely to trade with caution and lack of direction until Trump's policy is understood and its implications can be quantified."
Data from the Statistics Agency showed that South Africa's manufacturing production fell by 1.2% in December compared to last year after a decline of 1.9%, but with a revised downward revision in November.
The yield on South Africa's benchmark government bond for 2030 has increased by 5 basis points to 9.15%.
The blue-chip Top-40 Index closed down 0.2% on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Reporting by Sfundo parakozov and Bhargavacharya, Editing by Tannur anders, Ed Osmond and Mark Heinrich
(source: Reuters)