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The high valuations of Australian companies will be put to the test in terms of their earnings.

The high valuations of Australian companies will be put to the test in terms of their earnings.

Next week, corporate Australia will begin its half-year results. While modest growth is anticipated, traders are examining whether the profits justify the stretched valuations. This is especially true in light of U.S. Tariffs.

The ASX200 was trading at a premium of 11% to its average value over the past decade, thanks to a record rally in financial stocks.

While the market as a whole is expected to report modestly or flat earnings, any deviation from expectations could cause companies to lose their high valuations.

The February reporting season is a critical window to the health of corporate Australia. With earnings in aggregate slowing, analysts at Morgans retail stockbroker wrote that valuations appeared to have less margin for error.

The increased global trade uncertainty caused by U.S. trade tariffs, including those on China and other trade partners, the weakening Australian currency, and the potential for fewer rate cuts has put valuations in the spotlight.

Morgans analysts said that they do not expect blue-chip companies with solid fundamentals to miss their earnings estimates, but a growth surprise will be required to justify any additional expansion in valuations.

Morgans and UBS analysts say that Financials, led by Commonwealth Bank, which registered an impressive 28% rise in prices last year, leading to fears of overstretched prices, is primed for a decent growth in earnings as it benefits from high interest rates.

Citi analysts say that Australian banks are likely to have a "relatively benign" reporting season, characterized by stable margins, and solid credit growth. However, high expectations and stretched valuations "seem to be at odds with modest core earnings forecast", they said.

The weakness of the resources sector continues to have a negative impact on the market.

Morgans, Citi, and UBS, among others, cited the weak Chinese commodity demand and increased operating costs as reasons for the low- to mid-double-digit earnings declines in this sector.

Analysts believe that the sector has started to offer "value" to investors following a dismal year last year, the worst performance since 2015. Citi equities analysts Liz Dinh and Liz Dinh think "persistent concerns about demand side and geopolitical risks are overshadowing improving valuation metrics".

Retailers, another important component of the Australian Market, are expected register a positive first half on the back of an increase in household spending. Interest rate reductions in the second half of the year could further boost spending.

Grady Wulff is a Bell Direct market analyst. He said, "We expect rate-sensitive sectors such as tech, consumer discretionary, and real estate to attract investors during the second half of the year." (Reporting from Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru, Additional reporting by Aaditya Govind Rao in Bengaluru. Editing by Sameer Mnekar and Jamie Freed.)

(source: Reuters)