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Scientists warn that China's ability to cope with catastrophic storms will be tested in 2026.
Scientists warn that extreme weather will only become more common this year. Weather systems are expected to bring severe weather conditions that will test the resilience and preparedness of densely populated urban areas as well as rural communities. China's National Climate Center predicts that up to six typhoons will form in the Northwest Pacific Sea and South China Sea by July, more than the average of 3.8. Three of these storms could land, which is more than the average of 1.8. It said that the intensity of cyclones would also be higher. Scientists claim climate change is exposing the second largest economy in the world to more destructive weather events. This year, the El Nino pattern that could fuel stronger typhoons (as hurricanes are called in Asia-Pacific) and increase temperatures, has been a cause for concern. Super Typhoon Bavi is expected to hit China on Saturday, marking the second tropical storm in one week. Bavi, which measures more than 1,000 km in diameter (6221 miles), briefly touched down on Monday in the Western Pacific over the U.S. Island of Rota. Winds were in excess of 180 mph. The storm caused the most damage in the Chinese region?Guangxi. Maysak's remnants also caused at least two tornadoes to form in central China. Benjamin Horton is the dean of City University of Hong Kong's School of Energy and Environment. Horton warned that the magnitude of these events was increasing, and there was no time to recover and become resilient. He expects to see more "frequent and intense" cyclones in this year, which will drop unprecedented amounts rainfall and cause floods, landslides and crop damage, as well as a loss of life. He said, "This will just repeat itself over and over again." WATER, WATER EVERYWHERE Hengzhou, which is at the epicenter of the Guangxi flooding, was hit with heavy floodwaters after the dams in local reservoirs failed. Officials have confirmed that at least six people are dead in Guangxi and 375,000 other people are affected. Death toll expected to increase. A call for assistance posted on Chinese social networks on Tuesday stated that "at least a 1,000 people are trapped in the mountains, it is dark everywhere and we need an urgent rescue." The post has not been independently verified. CCTV reported that after the failure of an intermediate-sized reservoir, on Monday, floodwaters containing large amounts of silt and mud inundated farmland downstream and villages. CCTV reported that in some homes, floodwaters had reached the second-floor, trapping people on roofs while violent torrents rushed all around them. Hengzhou is a largely rural city with more than 1,000,000 residents. It has six reservoirs of medium size and over 200 smaller ones. The canal project, which is expected to be completed in September, will cost 70 billion yuan (10.3 billion dollars). Hui Su is the chair professor of Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He said that "the severe impacts of Maysak and looming threats of Super Typhoon Baavi indicate that 2026 will be more intense and destructive than a 'typical year. El Nino shifts typhoons westward to China's coast,?increasing the risks. Climate change also makes storms more destructive and wetter." The United Nations weather agency increased its forecast last week for the rapid emergence in the next months of a strong El Nino. El Nino, according to World Meteorological Organization, is a periodic increase in sea surface temperature over the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. This could potentially raise global temperatures, and the risk of extreme weather.
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Polyus, a Russian company, plans to stop dividends by 2030 in order to invest
Polyus, Russia's biggest gold producer, announced on Wednesday that it would?suspend all dividend payments until 2030 in order to finance large-scale investment projects. The company stated that the management intends to make a recommendation to the board of directors following a "thorough assessment of the current economic environment". The planned suspension of dividends reflects the high borrowing costs, increasing production expenses, lower prices for gold and risks associated with investment project timelines. Polyus shares fell by nearly 20% on the Moscow Exchange. Gold prices are now around 75% higher than they were two years ago, despite a 26% drop from their peak at $5,600 an ounce. According to Metals 'Focus, Russia will be the second largest gold producer in the world after China by 2025. It is expected to account for?about 9 percent of global mine production. Polyus's key project is the $6 billion Sukhoi log development in Siberia. According to company estimates, the project, which is currently in its construction phase, will double the gold production of the company. Western sanctions cover all major Russian gold miners, including Polyus. In 2022, the United States of America, Britain and Europe will ban imports from Russia. Polyus has resumed dividend payments based on its first nine-month results of 2024, after a pause of over?two years. This was aided by the high gold price. The company will revise its dividend policy in spring 2025 to make it more flexible and responsive to market conditions. The company warned that in the event of a deterioration in conditions and a risk of delaying its flagship Sukhoi Log Project, it would prioritise growth projects above dividends. (Reporting by Anastasia Lyrchikova. Felix Light is the author. Tomasz Janowski and Mark Potter (Editing)
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UAE's ADNOC expands its energy partnership with South Korea
ADNOC, the state-owned oil company of the UAE, announced on Wednesday that it had entered into a long-term partnership with South Korea for energy security. The agreement aims to increase cooperation in areas such as crude supply and emergency supply coordination. The partnership extends existing agreements. This includes a pledge made by the United Arab Emirates in March that they would supply South Korea up to 24,000,000 barrels of crude oil. It was announced at a visit to South Korea by Sultan al-Jaber. ADNOC Group CEO and UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology. ADNOC stated that both parties would seek to?boost long-term crude supplies for Korean refiners and improve coordination in emergency situations, such as finding alternative export routes. They will also advance cooperation on international joint 'crude stockpiling. ADNOC also said that South Korea intends to support discussions on ADNOC access to crude oil facilities in the country including those connected to Korean refinery assets. South Korean Industry Minister?Kim Jung-kwan stated on Wednesday that despite the Middle East entering a new phase, maintaining stable supply chains of core resources remained an important task. He said, "The Korean government needs to strengthen its strategic partnership with the UAE as a major energy supplier." South Korea imports 70% of its oil from the Middle East. The 'war in the Middle East' prompted South Korea to seek alternative energy sources earlier this year. This included countries like Kazakhstan. Reporting by Hyeyooncho. Mark Potter (Editing)
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China auto sales drop again but exports remain strong
In June, car sales in China dropped for the ninth consecutive month as automakers turned to export markets to offset the effects of weak local demand. The China Passenger Car Association reported on Wednesday that domestic passenger vehicle sales dropped 23.4% compared to a year ago, and reached 1.62 million units in June, after a decline of 22.3% in May. Exports of cars jumped by 82.1% last month to 882,000 units. Exports of cars rose by 70.6%, to 4,28 million units, despite a decline in domestic sales of 20.4%. China's sales declines are a reflection of tightening household spending, in an economy that is lagging behind. The most affected by this uneven growth have been price-sensitive customers. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of electrified and gasoline models priced below 80,000 yuan (11,776) fell by 34% and 43% respectively in the first five month of the year. Wang Xianbin is vice president of Gasgoo Research Institute. He said that the premium car segment has been growing. This year, 70% of all new car sales were from buyers upgrading their old gasoline cars to newer models with advanced features like air suspension. Wang said that the trend has benefited new Chinese premium brands like Nio while German traditional marques have struggled. Wang stated that Chinese consumers no longer buy German quality or German-styled luxurious goods. In the industry's transition to smart?electric cars, mass-market brands such as Volkswagen, General Motors and Toyota have lost their market share. In the face of 'cut-throat' competition, foreign companies and their joint ventures with Chinese partners, have increased efforts to expand overseas, especially in Europe, South East Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. BYD, the Chinese EV manufacturer, is close to deciding on a second European auto factory. It has relied on exports to compensate for slowing sales at home. Tesla is a foreign brand that has been able to maintain its sales in China for the first half of the year. The Model Y remains the most popular SUV.
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Aluminium gains in renewed Middle East combat
Aluminum gained on Wednesday as a result of'renewed tensions in the Middle East' after 'fresh U.S. attacks on Iranian targets threatened derailment of a fragile ceasefire. As of 0700 GMT, the benchmark three-month aluminum?on London Metal Exchange was?up by 0.33% to $3,148 per metric ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract rose by 0.68%, to 23,075 Yuan ($3,394.38) per ton. The rise in prices comes after the latest U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets, and projectiles have 'hit ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This could undermine efforts to restore a?normal supply? in the region. Around 9% of the world's aluminium smelting capacity is located in the Middle East. After peace talks between Iran and the U.S., traders 'priced out war risk premiums'. ING stated that the market would still remain in deficit for this year. Lower prices have attracted Chinese buyers, which has provided support. Copper also fell ahead of Wednesday's publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting from June, which could provide clues about the interest rate policy of the central bank. Red metal, which is a beneficiary of economic growth, has been affected by fears that rates will continue to rise. Higher rates dampen global economic activity. Prices on the SHFE and LME fell by 0.19%, respectively. China's copper purchases, as the world's largest consumer, are continuing to grow, thanks to the Yangshan The copper premium, which tracks the buying interest, reached a 13-month peak of $80 per ton on February 2. Nickel lost 0.72%, and tin fell 0.3%. On the SHFE, tin rose 0.55%, while lead fell 0.98%, and nickel gained 0.98%. $1 = 6.7980 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Sonia Cheema).
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Dutch prosecutors file criminal charges against Tata Steel unit
Dutch prosecutors announced on Wednesday that they had opened a criminal case against Tata Steel's Dutch subsidiary for "intentionally polluting" the environment. The prosecutors said a criminal probe?into Tata’s massive plant in?IJmuiden on the Dutch coast, west of Amsterdam, gave clear indications that company did not take enough care to avoid hazardous pollution. Tata was also accused of operating without the necessary licences and inadequate maintenance for its highly polluting coke oven. Tata's Dutch division, which is part of Tata, said that they disagreed with these accusations and had made significant improvements to reduce pollution in the past years. It claimed that it was "unnecessary to file a complaint" over a "limited number" of incidents, which?it stated had been improved. It is not clear yet if Tata executives in the Netherlands will also face personal prosecution. Tata's IJmuiden is one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gasses in the Netherlands. According to government-commissioned research, it is also responsible for many health issues in the region. Tata Steel has stated that its emissions are within legal limits. It also expects to see a reduction in?emissions from the steel plant. Dutch regulators threatened in 2024 to shut down the coke-oven, one of the major ovens at the facility, because they said it continued to operate "in violation of environmental?"regulations. The first hearing will take place on 20 November at the district courts in Amsterdam. (Reporting and editing by Michael Perry; Bart Meijer)
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Oil jumps on Middle East attacks; tech stocks fall due to AI valuation concerns
Oil prices jumped by over 3% Wednesday, bond prices fell as U.S. sanctions against Iranian crude oil?threatened a ceasefire. Stocks wobbled due to concerns that the record AI rally might be losing its buyers. Brent crude futures rose 3.3% to $76.54 per barrel, the highest gain in a single day since May. Although this was far below the peak of $120 at the height of fighting, it was still enough to introduce a new inflation risk in the bond market. Jason Wong is a senior strategist with BNZ Wellington. "Obviously, the market does not like these attacks... But it's still not in full-blown panic mode," he said. The U.S. claimed it had hit Iranian air defences and coastal surveillance sites. Iran's Revolutionary Guards also said that they had targeted U.S. forces in Bahrain and Kuwait where air raid sirens were heard on Wednesday. Washington has also pulled back a concession that allowed Iran to sell its oil on the global market. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said this was a breach of the framework agreement to end the war. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes yields have risen for the seventh consecutive day to a one-month-high of 4.56%. In Europe, yields in Germany and Italy on 10-year bonds reached new highs, at 3,04% and 3.85% respectively. David Chao is the Asia-Pacific Global Market Strategist at Invesco, based in Singapore. "I believe that Brent is still trading at levels which, in my opinion, do not take into account the ongoing flare-ups in the Middle East." The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve's crude oil stocks fell to their lowest level in 1983 this week, making the markets more susceptible to supply shocks. SAMSUNG SINKS European market opened under pressure with the STOXX600 down 0.8% as healthcare and consumer shares saw sales, which offset gains in oil and Gas shares. U.S. stock futures and European stock futures are down between 0.2% and 0.3%. Investors were rattled when Samsung Electronics' shares fell for the second session in a row, despite the company reporting a 19-fold increase in profits. Analysts and investors worry that the demand for memory chips may slow down in the second half. In the past two weeks, the focus has shifted away from the hot chip stocks to other parts of the market. This includes financials and consumer stocks, and then back to so-called hyperscalers who have dominated the market for the past year or so. Samsung's results showed that investors are questioning valuations more and more as the bottlenecks of some parts of AI supply chains, such as data centres or memory chips, start to disappear. Pricing for AI models is also becoming harder to predict. You could see the market trying to determine the exact pricing power, which can lead to fluctuations in valuations. We also see that capex expenditure is increasing relative to EBITDA, meaning that the amount of assistance that can be provided via share buybacks etc. is decreasing. We may'see pressure on valuations within certain parts of the 'AI chain,' said Marieke Blom, ING Chief Economist and Global Head of Research. The dollar was stable on the currency markets. The euro hovered around $1.14, and the yen at 162, which is not far off its 40-year low. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting last month are due on Wednesday. Traders believe that Kevin Warsh, as new chair, may reduce their detail in order to soften any possible policy message. Reporting from Tom Westbrook and Amanda Cooper, both in Singapore; editing by Jamie Freed and Sonali Paul.
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Singapore's Temasek green portfolio rises 7%, sees eneven climate path
Singapore's state-owned investor Temasek announced on Wednesday that its sustainable living portfolio had risen by a little over 7%, to S$49 Billion ($38 Billion), after it invested more money in renewable energy, power grids and other businesses related to the global transition to clean energy. Temasek has invested S$5 Billion in this area for the year ending March 31, 2026. After divestments, including O2 Power, the portfolio increased by S$3 billion. "We are pragmatic because we maintain our ambition to?net zero while remaining commercially disciplined about how and where we allocate capital," said Jasmine Teo at a press briefing. These investments include a?renewable-energy firm based in India, Luminace solar and energy platform, a?U.S. Amperesand is a Singapore-based company that specializes in grid technology. Commonwealth Fusion Systems is a U.S. Temasek reported that S$42 billion was invested in companies with products that support lower emissions, positive outcomes for nature or inclusive growth. Another S$7billion was invested in companies with higher emissions that are moving towards cleaner products and/or services. Temasek's 2050 goal of net-zero emissions remained unchanged. However, it is unlikely to reach its 2030 target of 11 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent due to the surge in electricity demand, increased capital costs, policy instability and exposure to difficult-to-abate sectors. The portfolio's emissions were flat at 21 million tons for the year ending March 2026. This is a 30% decrease from 2020. Temasek expects emissions to increase in the near term with Sembcorp Industries' Alinta purchase. Teo stated that "real-world transition may sometimes increase emissions on a short-term basis." Reporting by Yantoultra ngi Editing by Tomaszjanowski
Gold falls as oil increases after Trump declares Iran peace deal "over"
Gold prices dropped more than 1% on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the interim peace agreement with Iran had "ended". This sent oil prices up and fuelled fears of inflation, as well as higher U.S. rates.
Spot gold dropped 1.02%, to $4,063.67 an ounce, by 0850 GMT. It had fallen to its lowest level since July 2, earlier in the session. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 1.97% to $ 4,074.80/oz. Trump stated that the Memorandum of Understanding signed in June with Iran to end a four-month conflict was "over" and added that he did not want to engage with Tehran. After his remarks, oil prices rose more than 5%.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards had earlier said that they "targeted" U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait after U.S. attacks on Iran?and the revocation?of a license?to allow the country?to sell oil.
Gold is traditionally regarded as a safe-haven metal, but the higher energy costs due to the war has raised concerns about inflation and rising interest rates. This would put pressure on the non yielding metal.
The Fed's Minutes, which are due at 1800 GMT on Wednesday, will be closely monitored for clues about the future of interest rates.
Gold is likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term. For gold to move higher, we need to have a further weakening in U.S. employment data and lower U.S. Inflation figures that allow?Fed officials sound less hawkish with respect to policy decisions," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the markets now expect 66% of a U.S. interest rate increase in September, up from 62% Tuesday. China's central banks reported on Tuesday its largest monthly increase in gold reserves for more than two-and-a-half years.
Silver fell by 2.37% per ounce to $58.59, platinum dropped nearly 3% to 1,591.88 and palladium fell 3.9% to $1,000.18. (Reporting and editing by Sumit in Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)