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Any progress with Hormuz on the line is good.
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the markets will be like in Europe and around the world. The 'off-again-on-again' peace talks between Iran and the U.S. have been making?progress in Asia. After President Trump threatened to 'freshly attack Iran,' and Tehran announced that it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, everything seemed to be in doubt. Iranian negotiators then claimed that progress was made during the first round of talks. Meanwhile, officials from Oman and Pakistan said a committee would be formed to oversee the negotiations with the goal of achieving a deal within 60 days. It was unclear what the status of the strait is. The U.S. Central Command reported that 55 vessels had passed through the strait on Saturday. Tracking showed 32 the day before. Iran said a system would be established to regulate the waterway. This could include a fee for shipping. Brent crude oil reversed course and fell?2.5% below $79.00 per barrel. Meanwhile, Asian share markets rose. Wall Street Treasuries and futures pared their early losses despite the growing risk of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Futures suggest that there is a 75% probability of a rate hike as soon as September, and a 41 basis point tightening at the end of the year. The yields on 2-year Treasuries have reached their highest level since early 2025, at 4.2276%. Trump caused a stir when he posted that Keir Starmer, the UK's Prime Minister, was going to resign. This followed reports in multiple media that Starmer planned to announce his plans in order to allow for a leadership contest by Andy Burnham. Burnham won a seat in Parliament by a landslide last week. Burnham, if true, is expected to take the top job. He will likely shake up the Cabinet - including replacing Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. The gilt market does not know how serious Burnham is about fiscal discipline and is concerned that he may end up borrowing and spending more. Key developments which could affect the?markets on a Monday: - Federal Reserve Board governor Christopher Waller makes a welcome speech ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks with Economy Commissioner Valdis Dobrovskis EU Consumer Confidence for June Canadian Inflation for May
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London Copper prices rise after volatile Mideast Peace Negotiations
The London Metal Exchange saw a slight increase in copper prices on Monday, as the market digested the turbulent weekend of U.S. - Iran peace negotiations. Benchmark three-month Copper on the 'LME rose 0.41% by 0300 GMT to $13,650.5 per metric ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell by 0.46%, to 104 490 yuan per ton ($15 425.16). After the peace talks between the U.S.A. and Iran, traders closely monitored the macroeconomic climate. Mediators confirmed that the first round of high level peace talks concluded on Monday. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened to resume his attacks and Tehran announced that it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Conflict has affected the base metal market, dampening appetite for risk and increasing energy prices. This has had a negative impact on growth expectations. Brent crude fell by 2.04%. Market participants are also watching the potential introduction of U.S. tariffs on copper imports. Copper prices have been supported by tariff concerns and material has been pulled from outside U.S. warehouses. Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, is expected to review the tariff and make a recommendation by the end June. The U.S. is considering a 15% tariff on copper imports starting in 2027 and then a 30% tax from 2028. The SHFE reported on Thursday that copper inventories in the?warehouses it monitors fell by 23.6%. The data from the exchange showed that on Friday, copper inventories in LME registered warehouses dropped by 3,575 tons. This brought their total to 352,150 tonnes. The number of cancelled warrants (indicating metal earmarked to be withdrawn) reached 37%. Aluminium was the least affected metal on the LME, with a 0.01% decrease. Zinc rose by?0.1%, while lead fell 0.13%. Nickel grew 0.94%, and tin jumped?1.12%. Other metals on SHFE have also seen a rise of 0.33%. Zinc has fallen by 0.72%. Lead is down 0.76%. Nickel is down 0.98%. Tin is down 1.69%.
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Business leaders from around the world support a faster shift to electrification
OVER 100 COMPANIES, INCLUDING UBER AND NESTLE?URGE GOVERNMENTS?TO MAKE ELECTRIFICATION CENTRAL IN ECONOMIC STRATEGY 'Nestle' and Ikea, among others, urged government officials to put electrification at the forefront of their economic strategies to reduce exposure to volatile fuel prices and boost energy security. They said that exposure to fossil fuel price shocks undermined their competitiveness. With combined revenues of $1.5 trillion annually, the group also included Iberdrola and Volvo Cars, Mahindra Group and Uber, Nikon Corporation and Levi Strauss. The statement was coordinated by the Global Renewables Alliance and the We Mean Business Coalition. It added that the ability to make this shift depends on a clear and predictable government's policy and reforms. This includes improving electricity market design and investing in grids. The statement noted that many companies and governments are reevaluating their energy strategies as a result of recent price spikes linked to the Iran conflict. The intervention coincides with the start of London Climate Action Week. More than 75,000 people are expected to attend more than 1,000 events, including policymakers, investors, and company executives. This also 'aligns' with a Turkish push, as the host of the COP31 Climate Talks?in November. Turkey wants?countries? to agree on a global goal for electricity to provide 35% of world energy demand by 2035. The statement stated that many of the technologies required to electrify sectors like transport, industry, buildings, and other industries are already available commercially and could help lower the overall energy consumption. (Reporting by Simon Jessop; Editing by Kirby Donovan) (Reporting and editing by Kirsten Doovan; Simon Jessop)
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China export controls on US rare earths and other companies
China has added what it says are 10 'U.S. China has added 10 entities related to the U.S. military on its export control list in retaliation after Washington placed a number Chinese firms on their list earlier this month. Aveox, an Aveox is a specialist motor manufacturer for mission critical applications. Rare earth producers MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are also on the list. This prevents Chinese exporters to sell dual-use products to them. China's Commerce Ministry stated in a Monday statement that the measures were a response to "the U.S. government’s malicious practice". They were also taken to protect national security and interests as well as fulfill international obligations, such as nonproliferation. The report said that any ongoing export activities between these companies and other countries should cease immediately. China's Finance Ministry announced in a separate notice that it had also decided to impose?measures on 46 U.S. firms. Chinese buyers will be unable to purchase any of their products, but U.S. funded enterprises in China can continue to do so. The United States has added Chinese automakers BYD and NIO to a list it believes is aiding Beijing's army. (Reporting and editing by Edwina G. Gibbs, Shanghai newsroom)
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Traders say that China's imports of coking coal will rise due to the Shanxi mine accident, which has affected supply.
China's coking coal imports are expected to increase this year, after a deadly?mine accident reduced the domestic supply. Chinese importers are turning to Canada and Australia as producers for June and July delivery after 155 mines in Shanxi province, China's largest coal producer, closed for safety checks in response to the accident that occurred in late May. Local coking coal costs had soared after the closures. A survey conducted by the consultancy Mysteel revealed that as of June 17th, 64% of production capacity affected had resumed. Johnny Deng, vice-manager of ferrous metals for trading firm Gent Commodity?, told the Singapore Coking Coal Conference on Thursday that production was still below pre-accident levels. He anticipates that the utilisation rate will average between 70% and 80%. This is down from earlier levels of 105% to 110%. Deng said, "We imported a few Canadian loads into China when the prices soared after the accident." The price of coking coal futures reached a 19-month peak on June 8 at 1,486.5 yuan per ton, but has fallen 5% in the last week. State media reported last month that the initial investigation revealed 'further safety concerns at the mines. The government has pledged to leave no stone untouched. Edwin Yeo is a senior manager at trading firm Exen Resources. He expects that there will be a shortage between 20 and 30 million tons, even after the plants are restarted. He told the conference that this was especially true for higher-grade cargoes which are not available from Russia or Mongolia. China's coking coal imports in the first quarter of this year have risen by 20% from their low point a year earlier due to increased supply from major producers like Mongolia and better border logistics. This is despite a drop in steel production of 4.1%. This increase in Chinese imports also prompted concerns about stiffer competition among global suppliers. Junxing Zhang is a manager of PT Kinrui New Energy Technologies Indonesia. The company produces metallurgical coal. Zhang stated that "we cannot compete with them in a market where coals are very popular," adding that they purchase material from countries with less demand for Chinese coal, such as Colombia and the U.S. to keep costs down. Some traders and steelmakers, however, are wary of importing more coal into China due to the tightened steel margins and uncertainty in steel demand. It's difficult to predict the prices in two or three months...we haven't decided to purchase more seaborne cargoes," said an executive from a Chinese Steelmaker at a conference. The manager declined to give his name as he was not authorized to speak to media. The trader also said that the gap in price between imports and domestic coking coal has shrunk, which reduces the incentive to increase shipping. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Eileen Soreng and Amy Lv)
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Steel industry alarm raised over slow progress in green steel
Steel associations in Singapore warned that delays to green steel projects were increasing and government support was far below what was 'needed. According to the World Steel Association, about half of all green steel projects around the world have been delayed. Governments have only committed $20 billion out of the $1.5 trillion required to decarbonise this sector. The industry executives stated that progress in reducing emissions is slow and will likely remain this way without an increase in funding from the state or customers willing pay more for cleaner metal. This gloomy assessment contrasts with renewed investor interest in clean energy and renewable technology after the Iran War, which has pushed up oil & gas prices. Customers won't pay a premium Green steel, which is steel with a reduced carbon footprint, is important because it accounts for 7%-?9% of the global emissions. Shaoliang Zhong is the deputy secretary general of World Steel Association. He said that the current global project pipeline will deliver just 70 million metric tons of green steel per year by the end of this decade. This is a fraction of 2 billion tonnes of total steel production predicted. Zhong said on Friday that about half of this modest pipeline was delayed due to financing issues, a weak demand, or a shortage of green hydrogen. Some producers are hoping it could replace metallurgical coke in blast furnaces. Zhong, speaking of emissions per ton steel produced, said that "over the past decade, steel emission intensity has remained nearly flat, despite steelmakers' commitment to reduce carbon emissions." During the conference, traders and steelmakers said that "many customers are still unwilling to pay more for cleaner steel." Investment in conventional blast furnaces continues to be made across India and Southeast Asia. Some of these facilities can last up to 40-years, thereby locking in emissions over decades. According to OECD estimates, the new blast furnace capacity that is planned for the two'regions' between 2024 and the end of this year will be roughly equal to the global green steel -pipeline outlined in Zhong. Yeoh Choon Kwee told delegates that "producing green steel is great, but first you have to survive." He said that while the focus on green steel was always on the supply side, demand reform was equally important. The government must also play an important role. They should mandate the use green steel for key infrastructure. Reporting by Amy Lv & Lewis Jackson. Ruth Chai, Solomon Cefai and Ruth Chai contributed additional reporting. Mark Potter (editing)
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Russell: There is plenty of crude oil in Asia, but the refined fuels are scarce.
Asia's crude oil imports are expected to return to pre -Iran Conflict? levels, but the flow of refined products is still constrained. Fuel prices reflect this supply stress. According to data compiled by Kpler, the world's largest energy consumer region is expected to import 22.18 millions barrels of crude per day in June. This represents an increase from 20.35million bpd imported in May. The arrivals in June are still below the 26.76m bpd average for the three months leading up to the United States' and Israel's attack on Iran, which took place on February 28. The figures are still well above the 8-year low of 18,77 million bpd that was recorded in April, when the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed by Iran. In July, it's likely that the reopening the narrow waterway where up to 20% of crude oil and refined products were transported before the conflict will enable more oil to be shipped to Asia. Kpler has tracked only?5.76m bpd in seaborne arrivals for June. This figure will likely be revised upwards before the end of the month as more cargoes arrive for assessment, but it confirms that China has dramatically reduced its crude imports due to the increased prices caused by Iran's war. China's seaborne exports fell to their lowest level since February 2018, with Kpler data indicating arrivals of 6.78 million bpd. This is down from an average 11.37 million in the three-month period before the Iran War. It appears that while crude imports in Asia ex China are on the rise, it is more difficult to return flows of refined products to their pre-war level. Asia's refiners will export 9.20 million bpd (light and middle distillates) in June. This is up from 6.99 million bpd, in May, and 6.28 million in April. Although this might seem like a good recovery, the figure for June is still 13% lower than the 10,56 million bpd that was shipped in the three-month period before the beginning of the conflict (February 28). In many Asian countries the refinery inventories are also down, so that there is a tight market for fuels like diesel and gasoline. FUEL PRICE PREMIUM Prices in the region have fallen from their record highs during the conflict but remain elevated in comparison to crude oil prices. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, ended on June 19 at $80.57 per barrel. This is an increase of 11.2% over the close of February 27. It's also a drop of 36.3% compared to April 30's war high of $126.41. Jet fuel was the refined product that suffered the most from the conflict, as it has the smallest buffer of stock and degrades more quickly than other fuels. Singapore jet fuel On June 19, the price of a barrel was $112.49, which is still 20.4% higher than the $93.45 it was the day before war began. Last week, gasoil, which is the main component of diesel, was priced at $111.61 per barrel. This represents a 22.1% increase from the $91.42 price on February 27. Meanwhile, gasoline The closing price of the war ended at $103.56, an increase of 30.6% over its previous close, which was $79.30. As refiners in Asia begin to receive more crude oil, they are likely to start increasing processing rates and increase the supply of refined product. The margins of refineries remain high due to the "premium" of fuels over crude. A typical Singapore refinery enjoys a profit of around $11.51 per barrel, which is a 34% increase on the $8.59 average for the last year. The speed at which refined fuels are able to return to their pre-war levels will depend on the ability of the United States to keep its ceasefire agreement with Iran and the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. In the medium term, it is more important to track vessel movements in the strait rather than the social media bluster of the various parties involved. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Trump threatens new attack after Iran closes Hormuz again
Prices of oil rose on Monday as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was slowed, and talks between U.S. officials and Iranian officials in their first meeting pursuant to an interim "peace" deal got off to a rocky start. Brent crude futures rose 54 cents, or 0.67% to $81.11 per barrel at 0030 GMT after reaching a high price of $82.30 when trading began. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures contract was trading at $78.62 per barrel, an increase of $2.02 or 2.64%, ahead of its expiration later that day. The August contract, which is the most active, rose $1.43 a barrel to $77.28. Due to the holiday, there was no settlement on Friday in the U.S. Shipping data shows that the number of ships passing the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply after Iran closed the waterway again, citing Israelis and Americans for violating the interim peace agreement. MST Marquee's head of energy analysis,?Saul Kavonic, said that the market had been expecting the Strait to open. "Iran will continue to find excuses to stymie the flow of traffic through the Strait as that is their only leverage into the midterms, which they are not likely to give up." U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened to resume attacking Iran, even as U.S. vice president JD Vance met Iranian representatives on Sunday for the initial talks under an interim deal. Meanwhile, Tehran claimed that the U.S. failed to fulfill its commitment to stop fighting in Lebanon. Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed at least twenty people, according to Lebanon's official news agency NNA, one day after Hezbollah and Israel agreed to a ceasefire, which was meant as a way of stopping months of violence. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said in a?note that the situation in Lebanon is a recurring threat to the ceasefire as well as the reopening the Strait. Oil prices dropped by more than 8% in the last week, despite the expectation of increased supply due to the release of cargoes stranded within the Gulf of Mexico and the potential lifting of U.S. oil sanctions against Iran as part of a U.S. Iran?deal. The head of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC),?Hamid Bouvard, said on Sunday that over 25 million barrels have been passed through the virtual blocking line since Monday. In the last week, Kuwait, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have all?offered customers more oil. Iraq will gradually restore crude oil production to between 4.2 and 4.3 millions barrels per day. The Iraqi deputy oil minister responsible for upstream matters said this in a Sunday statement.
China coking coal prices continue to decline despite rising supply
China's futures for coking coal continued to fall on Monday. They were weighed down by the prospect of rising supplies amid a continued production resume after a fatal mine accident in coal rich Shanxi, and?growing imported coal.
By 0330 GMT, the most traded coking coal contract at the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), had fallen 1.93% to $187.32 per metric ton. The DCE's most actively traded coke contract dropped 0.74%, to 2,010.5 Yuan per ton. According to a survey conducted by Mysteel, as of June 17, 63% of the coal mines which had suspended production after the fatal mine disaster in late May have now resumed.
Customs data also showed that China's imports of coking coal in may increased by 51% compared to the previous year, while imports for the entire year jumped by 25%. Traders predict that China's coking coal imports will continue to increase this year. Galaxy Futures analysts said that the recent slump in coking coal prices is not due to a radical change in fundamentals but reflects a shift in traders' focus from fears of a supply shortage to the resumption of production. The analysts at Galaxy Futures said that "uncertainties" still clouded the pace of production for other mines and it was unlikely to recover to pre-accident levels. Investors weighed the still-resilient steelmakers' demand against high portside inventories to determine iron ore prices. The most-traded DCE iron ore contract fell 0.13%, to 745 yuan per ton. As of 0254 GMT, the benchmark July?iron-ore contract on the Singapore Exchange had risen by 0.31% to $98.95 per ton.
Mysteel data show that the average daily 'hot metal output', which is a measure of iron ore consumption, increased by?0.6% from the previous week to 2,42 million tons on June 18. This was the highest level since September 2025.
The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed. Rebar fell 0.32%, while hot-rolled coil dropped 0.42%. Stainless steel was down 0.13%, and wire rod gained 0.51%.
(source: Reuters)