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Russell: China added crude oil to its massive stocks in March. But the outlook has changed.
China built the largest crude oil stockpile in the world during March, even as other countries began to use their inventories to make up for the millions of barrels lost due to the effective closure of Strait of Hormuz. According to calculations based off official data, China, the largest crude importer in the world, had a surplus of 1,74 million barrels a day (bpd). The 'first quarter' of China saw an excess of crude oil of 1,41 million barrels per day, down from a?record high of 2.67million bpd set in December. However, this is still higher than the average of 1,13million bpd over the entire 2025 period. China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of strategic and commercial stocks, but it can be estimated by subtracting the amount processed from total crude produced domestically and imported. Not all of the excess crude is likely to have gone into storage. Some was processed in plants that are not included in the official data. Even if you ignore these gaps, the fact remains that China began importing crude oil at a rate far greater than was necessary to meet its domestic fuel needs in March 2025. In March, China imported 11.77 million barrels per day of crude oil while its domestic production was only?4.49million bpd. Refinery processing reached 14.52 million barrels per day, leaving 1.74 million barrels per day for storage. China's crude oil stockpiles continued to grow in March, despite the fact that imports were not affected by the conflict?in the Middle East which began on February 28, when Israel and the United States launched an aerial attack against Iran. Oil delivered to China before the start of the conflict would have left the Strait of Hormuz, but imports from April will likely be affected. It is important to ask how China will respond to the lower crude imports that are expected to begin in April. These may be further restricted if the U.S. The military successfully executes President Donald Trump's directive to?blockade vessels from Iranian port. Kpler, a commodity analyst, estimates that China's seaborne oil imports for April were 8.7 million barrels per day. While this number is likely to rise as more cargoes arrive before the month's end, arrivals are likely to be at their lowest level since August 2022, when 7.97 million barrels per day arrived. Options If it wants to maintain domestic refinery rates at current levels, China can use some of its vast crude oil stockpile. Beijing has not revealed the exact number of commercial and strategic stocks, but analysts estimate that at least 1.2 million barrels are in these inventories. It would take two years to exhaust the stockpile if China released up to 2,000,000 bpd of its reserves to maintain refinery output. It is clear that this is an extreme situation, but the truth is that crude oil flow from the Middle East is likely to return at some point to levels similar to those prior to the start of the conflict. China can easily continue to refine fuels and increase the amount of processing it, allowing for the export of fuels. Beijing has placed informal limits on this since the beginning of the conflict. Kpler's tracking of shipments for April shows that China exported 1.19 million barrels per day (bpd) of refined fuels. Jet fuel and diesel prices both reached record highs in March due to the loss of refined fuel exports from China. Beijing probably expects the Iran conflict will end within the next few weeks, and that crude oil and other products from the Middle East can resume. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a long time, the risks to China increase. China can keep its domestic fuel supplies for a long time because it has a large amount of crude oil reserves. However, if Asian neighbours experience shortages or their economies begin to shut down, it won't be long before this will affect China's export industries. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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A Frenchman who was jailed in Israel for a hit-and run in Paris is killed in an upscale Parisian street
French prosecutors reported that a Frenchman, whose role in an alleged fatal hit-and run in Israel more than a decade earlier sparked a diplomatic dispute between Paris and Jerusalem, was shot dead on a street of the wealthy Paris suburb Neuilly sur Seine on Thursday. According to the judicial authorities, Eric Robic died at around 9:30 am (0730 GMT), in a?public?street. Early witness accounts described several handgun shots being fired by two men on a scooter. They fled the scene immediately. Robic was best known for the '2011 killing' of Israeli woman Lee Zeitouni who was killed by his speeding SUV. Robic and the passenger fled Israel hours after the accident. This sparked public outrage, and a diplomatic dispute?after France refused Israel’s extradition request due to its policy not to extradite its own citizens. The case led to a sustained public and political pressure in both countries. Robic was subsequently?tried under French law in Paris. In 2014, the French court sentenced him to five years of prison for aggravated involuntary murder and failure to assist a person who was in danger. Authorities have yet to comment on the possible motives behind Thursday's murder. (Reporting and editing by PhilippaFletcher; Charlotte Van Campenhout)
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Stocks return to record highs on Middle East peace hopes
The world stock market rose for the 10th consecutive day on Thursday to reach?new records highs. This marked the end of a six-week journey that began with the massive selloffs caused by Israel and the United States' attacks on Iran. The optimism over a possible 'deal to end war' continues to grow. MSCI 47-country world stock index rose 0.25%, with oil at $95 a barrel now far below the $120 highs of March. Wall Street hoped to see more gains in the future. The S&P 500 reached a new high on Wednesday after rising tech stocks and positive global bank earnings lifted it above 7,000. Manpreet Gil, Chief investment officer for Africa, Middle East, and Europe at Standard Chartered, said: "It looks almost like a perfect V-shaped rebound." He added that the U.S. tech stock market and the falling oil prices were the main drivers of the rebound. European stocks are still not back at their pre-war levels, but they have moved up 0.2% as bond traders continue to reduce bets on sharp interest rate hikes by the top central banks in the region. When the European Central Bank met last month, there were growing fears about a surge in European and worldwide inflation due to energy. Gill stated that rate-makers are more likely to try and "look past" this move if energy prices do now drop, and if inflation is only a temporary one off. He said: "I think everyone is going to be quite careful about whether we can see any second-round impacts that come later." OIL ON BOIL Brent crude oil prices remained volatile at a little above $95 per barrel, after a Tehran-briefed source said that Iran might consider allowing ships sailing freely on the Omani side of Strait of Hormuz to avoid attack in its negotiations with the United States. After eight days of consecutive declines, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, gained around 0.15%. In addition to war-watching, U.S. president Donald Trump has reignited the spat with Fed chair Jerome Powell. He threatened to remove him from his seat as a single member of?the U.S. Central Bank's Board of Governors, unless Powell vacates his seat when his term ends on May 15th. The dollar's movement also caused the euro to lose traction at just below $1.18, after having edged up to within touching distance from its highest level since World War I began. After meeting with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent, Japan's Finance Minister said that Tokyo and the U.S. agreed to intensify their communication?on the exchange rate after her Wednesday meeting. Khoon 'Goh, head of Asia Research at ANZ said: "As the markets price out the war premium we could see further pressure on the dollar and a resumption of the downward trend that has been established basically since last year." AUSSIE DOLLAR AND GOLD GAIN Chinese stocks rose over 1% in the first quarter, and the yuan was nearing a three-year-high of 6.8152 to the dollar on the offshore markets. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2.4%, setting a new record. Taiwan and Korea were not far behind, as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a pillar of the AI industry, posted a 58% increase in profits. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report that they "remain constructive" about emerging market stocks, as the "underlying profit growth will likely be strong". The Australian dollar reached a record high of four years after the release of employment data. Bitcoin and ether, on the other hand, remained at just below $74,700 each and $2,340 in the cryptomarkets.
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Enel assets in Brazil worth $4 billion, according to auditors
Auditors in the annual report of Italian utility Enel said that it has assets valued at about 3,34 billion euros ($3.9billion) and goodwill worth 595 million euro tied to a Brazilian power concession which it could lose. Brazil's Aneel power regulator decided earlier this month to proceed with a forfeiture procedure that could lead to the termination of a power distribution concession held a local Enel unit in?Sao Paulo. This would prevent the automatic renewal contract which expires 2028. Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira urged Aneel in December to begin Enel's termination procedure after power outages affected more than 2 million customers in the Sao Paulo metro area due to extreme weather events. KPMG stated that the recoveryability of Enel’s assets and goodwill relating to the concession in Sao Paulo, and its possible renewal had been an important matter in auditing Enel’s accounts. They added that the 2025 financial statements gave a “true and honest view” of the group’s financial situation. The auditor stated that although Enel’s management had conducted an impairment assessment of the Sao Paulo operation to?determine a recoverable amount under different future scenarios?, the estimates were subjective and included some uncertainty. Enel will have another chance to present its case before the federal government and regulator decide whether or not the concession is granted. Aneel's head recently stated that the Sao Paolo unit could be sold to another firm if a loss is anticipated. Enel reaffirmed its interest in this concession in its February presentation of its long-term strategies, and pledged to strengthen its commitment to Brazil on a long-term basis.
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Hegseth: US forces are ready to resume combat if Iran does not agree on a deal
?U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a Pentagon press briefing that forces in the Middle East were 'postured' to re-start combat operations if Iran refused to agree to a peaceful deal. He said, "You Iran can choose a prosperous, golden future. We hope you will do this for the people of Iran." "But if Iran chooses badly, they will face a blockade, and bombs being dropped on their infrastructure, power, and energy." U.S. forces have imposed a blockade against all ships attempting to enter or exit Iran as part of a campaign to press Tehran into a deal. "We will actively pursue any Iranian flagged ship or any vessel that is attempting to provide material?support?to Iran," stated General Dan Caine. He is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Ships that try to breach the blockade will be intercepted, and they'll be warned "if you don't comply with this blockade we will use force". He told the briefing that enforcement would take place in 'Iran's territorial waters and international waters.
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Gold prices rise as Middle East optimism eases inflation fears
Gold prices rose on Thursday, as a growing 'optimism' about the end of 'conflicts? in the Middle East eased inflation concerns and improved prospects for lowering interest rates. Gold prices rose 0.6% at $4,819.66 an ounce as of 1207 GMT after reaching a month-high in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery gained 0.4%, to $4841.70. This need for liquidity has largely run its course. Shah said that he expects the gold price to remain well supported, as long as there are concerns about central bank independence and devaluation risk. On Thursday, optimism grew that the Middle East war may be close to an end. A key Pakistani facilitator in Tehran and Donald Trump's administration both expressed hope for a deal which would open the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices rose by more than 1% Thursday but remain well below $100 per barrel. "Gold continues to be supported amid renewed optimism about de-escalation. Oil prices are falling, which is helping to ease inflation fears that were weighing on the prices in earlier conflict. Analysts at ING said that the move reflects a broader change in market focus. In Asian trading, global equities soared past their previous all-time peaks as optimism grew around a Middle East?peace?deal. Gold prices fell to $4,097.99 per ounce as a result of high inflation fears due to the soaring price of energy on March 23, as expectations grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve would adopt a more hawkish stance on interest rates, which would weigh on demand for the non-yielding material. Investors now expect at least one U.S. rate cut by 2026, up from just 32% the day before, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Silver rose 0.7% per ounce to $79.59, platinum increased 1.5% to 2,141.45, and palladium increased 0.8% to $1,586.05. (Reporting and editing by Tasimzahid and Jonathan Ananda; Bengaluru, Ishaan Verma and Swati verma.)
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Hungary's carbon tax violates EU rules, top court says
The European Union’s top court ruled on Thursday that Hungary’s tax on CO2 emissions allowances, which will be introduced in 2023 is illegal under EU law because it removes operators’?incentives to invest? in reducing emissions. The tax was imposed by Hungary's departing government, headed by Viktor Orban, whose party lost the Sunday parliamentary elections. The tax is 36 euros (42 dollars) per ton annual emissions produced by the company. The European Court of Justice referred the case to the Veszprem 'High Court of Hungary - who had originally referred it to ECJ. The ECJ ruled that "the Hungarian tax on carbon dioxide?emission allowances seems to be in violation of EU law. It is up to the national court to confirm this." The ECJ, siding with the Hungarian fertilizer maker Nitrogenmuvek said that Budapest's scheme is against the EU's 2003 emission trading directive which is intended to reduce greenhouse gas 'emissions' across the EU. The report warned that taxing free emission permits would strip them of "much" of their value, and take away the incentives meant to encourage companies to reduce their emissions. Orban's government disregarded ECJ rulings in the?past on other issues and the Hungarian Constitutional Court?rejected a complaint against the decree 2024. The TISZA Party of Peter Magyar has not yet commented. He has promised far-reaching reforms and hopes to have his cabinet sworn in before mid-May. $1 = 0.8488 Euros (Reporting and Editing by PhilippaFletcher; Anita Komuves, GianlucaLoNostro)
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Six-week roundtrip
What's important in U.S. markets and the global market today by Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets. After six weeks of war, stocks around the world are back to record levels. New U.S. and Iran?peace negotiations could be in the works as Trump's administration raises hopes of a deal, while a Pakistani mediator arrives at Tehran. Investors feel that they can now switch back to the?market fundamentals. Investors were largely impressed by the first-quarter results of U.S. big banks earlier this week. Now it's time for tech, as Taiwan's chip maker TSMC has released another impressive beat. Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my most recent column about why geopolitics is getting more complicated and how that's affecting stock rebound rates. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast where I talk about China's GDP and other topics. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a week. Don't forget April 23, when I will be hosting a webinar with my ROI colleague Jamie McGeever on how to rethink "safe-haven" assets in uncertain times. Register here. SIX-WEEK RUNDTRIP Global stock prices are rising as investors focus on the impact of the Iran War on the tech sector, and the global economy in general. MSCI's "all-country" index reached a new record on Thursday. The Nikkei also hit a record, closing with a 2.5% gain. South Korea's KOSPI rose by over 2%. The new highs of the major U.S. indices were aided by strong earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on Wednesday. Over 80% have exceeded analysts' expectations. The possibility of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon was another cause for optimism. President Trump said that the leaders from both countries will speak on Thursday. According to a Tehran-briefed source, Iran is also said to be considering allowing ships to sail through the Omani shore of the Strait of Hormuz in the context of a proposal to the U.S. The oil prices are once again following the more positive reports and remain below the crucial $100 per barrel level. Brent crude and WTI crude both rose over 1% to around $96/bbl on Thursday. The dollar, on the other hand, continued to trade near its six-week lows and extended losses against major currencies for an eighth consecutive session. The dollar has now lost most of the gains it made as a safe haven since the Iran War began. China's first-quarter growth was 5.0%, exceeding economists' expectations of 4.8%. This is despite a slowdown of retail sales and industrial output in March. In the United States, President Trump has renewed his attacks against outgoing Fed chair Jerome Powell. He once again threatened to fire him, if he didn't leave his Fed board seat after his term ends next month. Next week, Congressional hearings will begin for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. Chart of the Day China's economy picked-up speed in early 2026. It was riding an export surge, before the Iran War sent energy prices soaring. This put global demand at risk - which is vital for Beijing's ambitions to grow. China's 5.0% growth rate in the first quarter was higher than expected and is above the 4.5%-5.0% target for the full year. This shows China has a high level of resilience, which sets it apart from other countries in Asia. Watch today's events * U.S. weekly jobless claims (8.30 a.m. ET), March industrial output (9.15 a.m. ET) * U.S. corporate ?earnings: BNY, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and to integrity, independence and freedom from bias.
Aluminium reaches four-year high amid Middle East supply concerns
Aluminum prices reached a four-year-high?on Friday as traders assessed?the extent of damage to the global supply caused by the U.S./Israeli war with Iran. Meanwhile, hopes for a possible peace agreement boosted other base metals.
The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.4% to $3.636 per metric ton during official open-outcry trade after reaching $3.672, its highest since March 24, 2020.
The record high was $4,073.5 on March 7, 2022 when the markets were dealing with 'the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion in Ukraine. Global aluminium is experiencing a'supply shortage this year as a result of the Iran War. One Gulf producer said in early April that it could take up to one year to fully restore production at its UAE smelters which were hit by an Iranian strike in late March.
The LME index of six base metal contracts closed on Wednesday at a record high amid strong prices across the complex. Copper and tin also reached their highest levels in early March.
Metals have done well in April so far, thanks to the hopes for a Gulf settlement, production uncertainty, and stress. Alastair Muiro, senior metals strategist, Marex, said that recent gains were due to investment from the financial system.
The LME cash contract is trading at a premium to the benchmark three-month price, despite?elevated LME prices.
The same spread?for other metals comes at a discounted price.
LME copper fell by 0.1% to $13,235 per ton, while zinc rose 0.8% at $3,424, and lead dropped 0.8% at $1,950. Tin gained?0.6%, to $49900, and nickel increased 0.7% to $18,260.
In the morning session, lead reached its highest since March 3 and nickel reached its second consecutive near-three-month high. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Polina Devtt)
(source: Reuters)