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ASIA COPPER WOEEK-Codelco’s record China copper deal sparks threats of walking away, sources say

The relevance of the benchmark to Chinese buyers is being questioned

Three Chinese customers have said they are willing to walk out.

Amy Lv, Tom Daly and Lewis Jackson

SHANGHAI/LONDON - Codelco, the Chilean copper giant that offers record-high prices to Chinese copper buyers is leading some to announce they will not sign the term contracts for next year as concerns grow over the relevance of this benchmark to Chinese buyers.

Codelco's premium is often used to reference global copper supply contracts. Codelco is by far the largest copper producer in the world, and China is its largest consumer.

According to three sources with knowledge of the situation, Codelco only offered Chinese buyers a premium of $350 per ton over London Metal Exchange rates. This is a significant increase from the $89 per ton that was agreed upon during negotiations last year.

One source said that the offers were on a "take it or leave it" basis. Decisions are expected to begin next week.

Sources with knowledge on the subject say that at least three Chinese customers of Codelco have indicated they are willing to opt out of term contracts and instead opt for spot deals this year.

When asked about the premium, a fourth customer who has not yet received an offer said: "Who would buy at this price?"

Codelco didn't immediately reply to questions emailed about the offers.

The willingness of delegates to forgo the closely-watched term deals highlights growing questions among delegates gathered at the World Copper Conference Asia in Shanghai about the benchmark's relevancy for China.

Three traders said that the high premium is partly due to how easily Codelco's cargoes are delivered to the U.S. Comex, where the forward prices for the next year are hundreds more than the LME. Three traders said that the trades were difficult for Chinese buyers and suggested that the premium was instead aimed at large trading houses.

A fourth source, however, said that lower offers will only encourage Chinese buyers who are interested in exporting their cargo to the U.S. to sell to traders.

The commercial nature of the issue made it necessary for all sources to remain anonymous.

Chinese customs data show that China's imports from Chile of refined copper have been steadily declining since 2023, both in absolute value and as a percentage of total imports.

Fears of a copper shortage next year led to a spike in LME copper prices to an all-time high of $11,200 per ton at the end of October. As of 0703 GMT, the metal was trading at $10 868 per ton.

Codelco is the largest copper miner in the world. It has offered to pay its European customers a record premium of $325 per ton for 2026. This represents a 39% increase year-over-year.

(source: Reuters)