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Gold as a safe-haven reaches record highs above $4,100/oz due to Fed rate cuts and trade worries

The gold price surpassed the $4,100 mark on Tuesday. This was boosted by the expectation of a rate reduction this month by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and by investors fleeing to safety following a resurgence in trade tensions with Beijing.

As of 12:46 pm, spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,143.17 an ounce. After hitting a high of $4179.48 in the earlier session, spot gold rose 0.8% to $4143.17 per ounce as of 12:46 p.m.

U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.7% to $4.160.20.

Metal prices have risen 57% in the past year. On Monday, they broke the $4,100 barrier.

The rally was driven by a number of factors including geopolitical uncertainty, the expectation of U.S. rate cuts, central bank purchases and strong ETF inflows. Bank of America analysts and Societe Generale see gold at $5,000/oz by 2026.

The uptick in U.S. - China trade tensions, ongoing government shutdown and expectations of more Fed easing all support gold, said Peter Grant.

Grant said that U.S. president Donald Trump's threat to impose 100% duties on Chinese products, the roll-out of tit for tat port charges by both of the world's largest economies, and a macro-trend of de-dollarization, could push gold up to $5,000/oz in mid-next-year.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Monday that Trump will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea.

Gold that does not yield tends to perform well in low interest rate environments. The markets are expecting a 25 basis-point cut in the Fed's rates this month. This will be followed by another reduction of 25 basis points in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that "based on the data we have, it's fair to say the outlook for inflation and employment has not changed much since the September meeting four week ago."

Silver spot, buoyed up by the same factors that drive gold and tightness on the spot market, reached a record $53.60/oz, before reversing 1.4%, to $51.63.

Palladium rose by 3.5%, to 1,523.73, while platinum rose 0.2%, to $1649.50. (Reporting and editing by Anil D’Silva and Sahal Muhammed in Bengaluru, and Noel John and Pablo Sinha, both of Bengaluru)

(source: Reuters)