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Gold's record rally: Who's keeping it moving?

Gold prices reached a record of $3,532 an ounce on February 2, extending the rally that has seen them rise by more than 90% since 2022. The demand is expected to be robust for a while due to various factors. The main drivers are central bank purchases, strong investment demand visible in the inflows of physical gold exchange traded funds and the upending of Western Security Policy by U.S. president Donald Trump, as well as his trade wars and concerns over the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Will central banks continue to buy more?

Metals Focus estimates that central banks will buy 900 tonnes of gold this year, double the average annual purchase of 457 tons between 2016-2021. After Western sanctions frozen half of Russia's foreign currency reserves by 2022, developing countries are looking to diversify away from the dollar. According to World Gold Council, a trade body, the official numbers reported to the International Monetary Fund represent only 34% the total central bank gold consumption estimate for 2024.

In 2022-2025 they will account for 23% of the total annual demand for gold, which is double the share in the 2010s.

Will the drop in the jewellery sector continue? According to the WGC, demand for gold jewellery, which is the primary source of physical consumption, dropped 14% in the second quarter 2025 to 341 tonnes, its lowest level since the pandemic-ravaged third quarter of 2010. High prices discouraged buyers.

WGC estimates that high prices were the main cause of the decline. The majority came from China and India, whose combined share of the market fell below 50% only for the third time in five years. Metals Focus estimates that gold jewellery production will fall 9% in 2024 to 2,011 tonnes and experience a 16% decline this year.

DO PEOPLE STILL PURCHASE SMALL GOLD COINS AND BARS?

The retail investment market has seen a significant shift in consumer preferences, but overall purchases remain strong. According to the WGC's report, investment demand for gold bars increased 10% by 2024 while coin purchases fell 31%. This trend is expected to continue into this year.

Metals Focus anticipates a 2% increase in net physical investment this year, to 1,218 tonnes. The demand for metals remains strong in Asia amid positive expectations about prices.

Can gold ETFs attract more inflows?

According to the WGC, gold ETFs are now a major source of demand. They recorded inflows of 397 tonnes in the period between January and June, which is their biggest first-half inflow since 2020.

The total gold ETF holdings at the end June reached 3,615,9 tons, the highest since August 2022. Five years ago, their record was 3,915 tonnes. Metals Focus anticipates a net investment of 500 tons in ETPs by 2025, after seven tons inflows in the year 2024.

(source: Reuters)