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China's copper production in 2025 is set to reach a record high despite shortages of feedstock

Analysts say that China's refined output of copper is expected to reach a new record in 2025 as its giant smelting industry powers through the global shortage of ore copper, which is forcing out some overseas competitors.

Five analysts estimate that the refined copper production in China will increase between 7.5% to 12% and surpass the record of 13,64 million metric tonnes set last year.

Copper is essential for power, construction, and manufacturing. Growing output in China, the world's largest producer and consumer, is sucking up copper concentrate. This is the main ingredient used by smelters. It is increasing pressure on competitors, and cementing China’s dominance in the industry.

Concentrate supply began to tighten in late 2023, as mine closures and rapid expansion of smelting capacities in China exacerbated anaemic growth. Processing fees, the amount smelters pay to convert concentrate into metal, fell to record lows. Profitability was also cut and some smelters outside China were forced to stop production.

Alice Fox, commodities analyst at Macquarie Group, explained that Chinese smelters were able to increase their output faster than imports of concentrates because they had depleted inventories, and used scraps from government consumer goods exchange programmes.

Fox stated that "Chinese refinery production was impressively high year-to-date despite low treatment costs and tight concentrates."

China's refined output of copper grew by 9.5% during the first half of this year. Many of its modern smelting facilities offset losses in part with increasing revenue from the sale of byproducts such as sulphuric acids and rare metals.

Analysts had predicted that global ore supplies would increase by 0.3% to 0.87% in 2025. However, China's imports of copper concentrate grew 6.4% during the first half of this year.

This left smelters with insufficient ore for processing in other regions. Sinomine Resource Group, a Chinese company, announced last month that it temporarily suspended operations at its Tsumeb facility in Namibia due to a shortage of concentrate.

Glencore's Philippine copper smelter was put into maintenance by Glencore in February due to the challenging market conditions.

Analysts predict that global refined copper production will grow between 0.9% to 2% this coming year. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, China's share of the global refined copper output will increase to 57% in this year.

BETTER DEMAND

The growth in China's output is being driven by stronger-than-expected exports plus growing investment in the power grid sector, both of which are leading analysts to revise up their copper demand forecasts.

BMI has increased its forecasts for China's growth in copper demand this year from 2.9% to 3.8%. This is compared to a forecast at the start of the year of 2.9%. Macquarie raised its forecast from 2.4% to 4.2%.

It is expected that the big increase in production will also pull down China's refined imports of copper, which stood at 3,74 million tons in 2024 or around 20% of China's national demand. BMI predicts that imports will drop by 8% by 2025.

Imports of refined copper have dropped by 8.6% during the first six months of this year. This is partly because traders shipped more cargoes into the United States in order to avoid the tariffs on copper that U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened since February.

The market has been able to counteract the increasing supply of copper with the benchmark prices up 8.8% this year.

Trump surprised the markets on Wednesday by reducing tariffs on copper wire and pipes to 50%. This was a far cry from the restrictions he had threatened, and it excluded copper concentrates, cathodes, and ores.

Zhao Yongcheng, BMI's Zhao Yongcheng, says that the lower-than-expected tariffs will not have a significant impact on Chinese copper demand or production.

(source: Reuters)