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Andy Home: Aluminium flow shifts after Trump doubles tariffs

Canadian aluminum smelters began diverting primary aluminium away from the United States as a result of the increasing import tariffs. These increased to 25% in march and to 50% in the month of June. Alcoa Corp., which has smelters in both the U.S. and Canada, told analysts during its quarterly earnings call that it had sold more than 100,000 tons of Canadian aluminum to customers outside the U.S. since March.

U.S. primary aluminum imports dropped dramatically in April and in May, even before U.S. president Donald Trump surprised the world with his second surprise tariff in June.

The import gap has been partially filled by the surge in shipments of recycled aluminium. This raw material, as a raw materials is only subject to Trump's lower tariffs.

The physical market dynamics will likely remain fluid, depending on both the U.S. premium as well as Trump's willingness and ability to grant exemptions.

PRIMARY INCOMES DOWN, SCRAP UPS

Imports of primary aluminum in the United States reached a two-year record of 442,000 tonnes in March, as suppliers raced to meet the first deadline for tariffs. No one saw the second increase coming, and it was implemented almost immediately, so there was no time to get ahead of the new 50% tariff. In fact, the 268,000 tons of imports in May were the lowest monthly total since December 2022.

The majority of the volume drop can be attributed to lower shipments from Canada. The biggest supplier of metal to the U.S. is redirecting the metal that has not been committed under annual contracts. In the case of Alcoa, this is about 30% of their Canadian production.

Aluminum is being rerouted towards Europe. WBMS trade statistics show that Canada exported 11,800 tonnes to the Netherlands in March and 25,500 to Italy in April.

The imports of scrap aluminium are increasing, meanwhile, due to the difference between the reciprocal tariffs and the aluminium ones. Arrivals in March-May totaled 227,000 tons, an increase of 40% over the same period in 2024. The European Commission activated its trade surveillance system before possible export restrictions. The European Commission has promised to make a decision before the end of September.

MARKET WATCH

In response to the double tariff increase, the U.S. Midwest Premium has risen from 24 cents ($520 per tonne) in January to an astounding 68 cents. William Oplinger is the CEO and president of Alcoa. He says that this amount does not cover the costs associated with tariffs on Canadian metal.

He said that the Midwest premium should be between 70-75 cents per lb when you take into account both the tariff and base costs of transportation to U.S. customers.

As buyers wait to find out if there will be any exemptions from the current blanket tariffs, they are reducing their inventory instead of making new purchases.

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It is their right.

The Trump administration is reportedly considering lowering or eliminating aluminium tariffs on countries that sign up for broader trade agreements.

This deal with the United Kingdom included a 25% reduction in import tariffs for both steel and aluminium products. According to European Trade Commission Maros SEFCIC, the newly-minted agreement with the European Union includes a potential carving-out for copper, steel, and aluminium. He said that European and U.S. negotiators found a common cause with China's overcapacity. For now, the higher tariff rate is still in place. However, both sides are working to create a "metals partnership" where tariffs would be replaced by a quota-based system.

Canada's importance in the U.S. aluminum supply makes it strange that Canada is not included in this alliance.

High SMELTER Restain Costs

One thing is certain, even though the tariff landscape is constantly changing. It will be a while before the U.S. can reduce its dependence on imports. Two new smelter project are in competition with Big Tech to provide low-cost electricity. Even if the smelters can lock in their energy supply, it would take years to build.

According to the United States Geological Survey, there are also around 670,000 tonnes of unused smelting capacities in the U.S.

Many of the old machines need significant investment. Alcoa's Warrick smelter, in Indiana has a 50,000-ton per year line that is idle. It would cost around $100 million for refurbishment and another year to ramp up production.

Alcoa's Oplinger said that a decision to restart production would require "that the tariffs remain in place for a long time" before it could be justified.

Tariffs are likely to remain in some form, but the question of how many trading partners will be able to avoid paying a full 50% tariff is becoming more and more open.

There won't be many U.S. Smelters restarted until the situation is clarified.

There will be more volatility in the supply chain.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)