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Trump's Trade War: Major Developments
The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump since his inauguration on January 20, 2017 have sent shockwaves through financial markets, and uncertainty has spread throughout the global economy. This timeline shows the major events: Trump imposes tariffs of 25% on Mexican imports, 10% on Chinese goods and most Canadian imports. He demands that they reduce the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl into the U.S. Trump accepts a 30-day suspension of his threat to raise tariffs on Mexico and Canada, in exchange for concessions made on border security and criminal enforcement. The U.S. fails to reach a similar agreement with China. Trump increases tariffs on aluminum and steel to 25%, "without any exceptions or exclusions". March 3 - Trump announces that 25% tariffs will be imposed on imports from Mexico and Canada from March 4, and that all Chinese imports will face a 20% tariff on fentanyl. March 6 - Trump excludes for one month goods from Canada and Mexico as part of a North American Trade Pact. Trump announces a 25% import tariff on cars and light trucks. Trump announces global duties with a base of 10% on all imports, and much higher duties for some of the United States’ biggest trading partners. Trump suspends most of the country-specific tariffs he had imposed less than 24 hours before, after a financial market upheaval that wiped out trillions of dollars on bourses worldwide. The 10% blanket duty on nearly all U.S. imported goods remains in place. Trump has announced that he will increase the tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%, which was the level in effect the day before. The extra duty on Chinese goods is now 145% including the previous tariffs. May 9 - Trump announces a limited bilateral agreement with British Prime Minister Keir starmer that keeps British export tariffs at 10% and reduces U.S. duty on British auto exports. On May 12, the U.S. & China agreed to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs. The U.S. and China agree to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs. May 13: The U.S. reduces the "de minimis", or low-value tariff, on China shipments. Duties for items up to $800 are reduced to 54% instead of 120%. Trump announces on May 23 that he will recommend a tariff of 50% on all goods imported from the European Union, starting June 1. Two days later, he backtracks on his threat. He warns Apple that it will face a 25% tax if the phones it sells in the U.S. are manufactured outside the country. May 29: A federal appeals Court temporarily reinstates Trump's most comprehensive tariffs. It suspends an earlier ruling by a lower court to allow the government to appeal. Trump signs an executive order activating the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 3. Trump warns that he could soon increase auto tariffs. Trump announces a 20% tariff for many Vietnamese exports. Trans-shipments through Vietnam from other countries will be subject to a 40% tax. Trump said on Truth Social, July 6, that countries who align themselves with BRICS' "anti-American policies" will be subject to an additional 10% tariff. Trump announces on Truth Social that the higher additional duties announced earlier in the year will be implemented with a slight delay, on August 1. In letters to 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Serbia, Trump says the tariffs will range between 25 and 40 percent. Trump announced on July 10 that the U.S. would impose a tariff of 35% on Canadian imports in August, and planned to impose tariffs blankets of 15% or 20 % on most other trading partner. Trump threatens to impose 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU and Canada from August 1. Trump announces that the U.S. is imposing a tariff of 19% on Indonesian goods under a new deal. (Compiled in Gdansk by Paolo Laudani, Mateusz Rabiega, and Matt Scuffham; edited by Jamie Freed and Lincoln Feast)
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European stocks are mixed as they await more U.S. inflation figures
Investors were cautious on Wednesday as European stocks were mixed after U.S. data from the previous session suggested that tariffs are causing inflation. This led investors to reduce their bets for rate cuts, and tariff-related uncertainties kept them cautious. Wall Street fell on Tuesday night and U.S. Treasury rates rose as U.S. Consumer Price Data for June showed higher prices for certain goods. The U.S. Tariff Threats also affected the market sentiment, after President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that letters informing smaller countries about their U.S. Tariff Rates would be sent out shortly. Trump announced on Saturday that he would impose a 30 percent tariff on imports coming from Mexico and Europe starting August 1. The MSCI World Equity Index was down by 0.1% at 0835 GMT. It had been knocked from a record high in the previous session following the inflation data. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.2%, while London's FTSE 100 rose by 0.1%. The rate of inflation in Britain's consumer prices rose unexpectedly to its highest level in more than a year. After the data, the pound gained a little against the dollar. The traders will monitor the U.S. Producer Price Data, which is due on Wednesday to determine the extent of inflationary pressures. Vas Gkionakis is a senior economist and strategist with Aviva Investors. It is very likely, but we will have to wait to see when and how it happens. The Fed has kept interest rates at the same level as it waited to see if the tariffs would have an inflationary effect, something that Chair Jerome Powell said he anticipated in the summer. Traders bet that the Fed is going to start cutting interest rates in September. Trump has repeatedly attacked Powell for not reducing interest rates earlier, causing investor concerns about the central bank's ability to remain independent. The dollar index, which was at 98.538 on Wednesday and little changed for the day, had cooled down after hitting multi-week highs on Tuesday. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1620. The benchmark yield on the 10-year German Bund was unchanged at 2.71%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was at 4.4833%. Both yields were down from their previous highs. Investors also pay attention to earnings reports. Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are among the banks that will report earnings on Wednesday. Prices of oil rose on the back of expectations that summer demand in China and the United States will be high. Gold rose 0.5% to $3,339.70 per ounce.
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The Russian oil price has remained below the budget target for 2025
Calculations showed that the average Russian oil price in roubles remained below the budget target for 2025. This added pressure to a budget already facing a growing deficit. The weakness of the rouble is due to its strength, which has increased by around 45% in the past year as a result of the easing of geopolitical tensions. The dollar value of international oil prices has dropped by about 10%. Estimations show that the average price for Russia's oil mix, as calculated for taxation, was 4,701 Rubels per barrel during the first two weeks in July. This is about the same level as June, but 11.1% lower than the revised budget target. Last week, the finance ministry announced that the budget deficit had reached 3,69 trillion roubles (47.31 billion dollars), or 1,7% of the gross domestic product in the first six months of the year. This is the same amount as was expected for the entire year. In April, Russia increased the estimate of the budget deficit for 2025 to 1.7% from 0.5%. This was after it reduced the energy revenue forecasts by 24%. The state's spending on defence increased by a quarter to 6.3% in 2025, the highest level since the Cold War. This was due to the fact that the country is still fighting in Ukraine. Oil markets have been impacted by the economic uncertainty and the increased production of OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its allies including Russia. The price of rouble oil is calculated using a Russian currency exchange rate of 78.39 to $1 during the first two weeks in July, and a barrel average of $59.97. The government has set a target price for oil in roubles of 5,281 per barrel, with a rate of 94.3 roubles to $1. Meanwhile, the price in dollars is set at $56.
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Data shows that Germany has seen record sales of e-cars in the first half of the year.
The German road traffic agency KBA announced on Wednesday that electric car sales had reached a new record in Germany in the first six months of this year. This represents nearly one out of five new registrations. According to the European Automobile Manufacturer's Association, sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe are up significantly this year, despite a decline in total vehicle sales. Germany is among the fastest growing markets. Experts say that the growing interest in electric vehicles in Europe, which is the second largest EV market in the world, is largely a result of new EU emission standards and the introduction of cheaper electric models. The KBA reported that EV sales in Germany had reached 248,726 in the first half of 2025. This is up by 35% from 184,125 in the same time period last year, and beats the previous record in 2023. KBA reported that EVs accounted for 17.7% of all newly registered vehicles during the first half year. The total number of new vehicles registered between January and the end of June was 1.4 million, a drop by 4.7% compared to the same period in the previous year.
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Housing concerns persist despite iron ore rising on the back of stronger Australia-China relations
Iron ore futures rose on Wednesday, boosted by stronger ties between Australia, the world's top producer, and China, its largest consumer. However, gains were limited by worries about persistent weakness in China’s property market. The daytime trading price of the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 773 yuan (107.70 dollars) per metric ton. As of 0754 GMT, the benchmark August iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 1.04% at $99.95 per ton. Anthony Albanese, Australian prime minister, met with Chinese steel industry officials in Beijing on Monday. Following a meeting between Albanese, and Chinese President Xi Jinping the two countries agreed on a new Policy Dialogue on Steel Decarbonisation. This gave Australia an insight into Chinese planning. Albanese said that a decade old free trade agreement between Australia and China, its largest trading partner, will be reviewed. BHP, despite the new dialogue on decarbonisation, has determined that it is too expensive to produce low-carbon steel and has "decided not to produce green steel or iron ourselves." Galaxy Futures, a broker, said that the demand for steel is still high in China's manufacturing industry, and prices have been driven by expectations about supply-side policies. In June, the crude steel production in China fell by 9.2% compared to the previous year, making it its lowest level since 2020. Analysts from ANZ wrote in a recent note that this has offset the positive sentiment built up in recent week on signs of robust consumer demand. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell on the DCE, by 1.48% each and 1.45% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a decline in most steel benchmarks. The price of rebar fell by 0.48%. Hot-rolled coil dropped 0.31%. Wire rod was down 0.45%. Stainless steel was unchanged. ($1 = 7.1771 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Lucas Liew; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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The German spot falls due to more wind and solar, while the French spot rises with temperature.
On Wednesday, European wholesale electricity prices were mixed. France's position gained on warmer weather forecasts while Germany's dropped under pressure from increased renewable energy production. Riccardo Paraviero, LSEG analyst, stated that France would not only see a rise in demand due to another hot spell, but also a slight reduction of its nuclear capacity. He added that the German market would benefit from stable consumption and an increase in wind and solar energy supplies. By 8am GMT, the price of French baseload electricity for Thursday had risen by 49.2% to 91.0 euros (105.71 dollars) per megawatt-hour (MWh). The German contract, which was 94.2 euros less than the French equivalent, maintained a premium. LSEG data put French demand for electricity on Thursday at 46 gigawatts, 500 MW more than Wednesday. They also predicted a temperature increase of 1.7 degrees Celsius in France to 23.8 degrees. German consumption, on the contrary, is likely to fall daily by 900MW, or 52.0GW. The hot weather can lead to a reduction in the amount of water available for cooling thermal power plants and a decrease in hydro-generation. The French nuclear availability dropped two percentage points, to 80% of the installed capacity. The day-ahead forecast showed that German wind power would rise to 15.5 GW, up from 10.3 GW, and German solar power will increase by 1 GW, to 13.6 GW. The German baseload power contract for the year ahead was up 0.4% at 87.1 Euro/MWh, while the French equivalent contracts closed untraded at 64.8 euro. The price of crude oil was boosted by the expectation of a strong summer demand from the United States and China. However, gains were limited by the caution expressed by analysts about the economy as a whole. The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was down 0.5% at 71.2 Euros per metric ton. $1 = 0.8609 Euros (Reporting and Editing by Louise Heavens, Vera Eckert)
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Barclays fined $56 Million by UK for financial crime control lapses
Barclays was fined 42 million pounds ($56.31million) by the British financial regulator on Wednesday, for failing to assess money laundering risks when providing services to Stunt & Co. and WealthTek. The largest portion of the fine relates to its banking relationship to gold bullion company Stunt & Co., a client of Fowler Oldfield which was connected to a large money laundering operation. Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), said that Barclays had not gathered enough information to begin the relationship, nor did it conduct a proper monitoring process. FCA claims that Barclays did not properly vet Stunt & Co., despite the fact that the firm received 46,8 million pounds from Fowler Oldfield. The firm continued to offer services despite regulatory warnings and police raids. Stunt & Co has been liquidated. The FCA stated that Barclays reviewed its exposure to Fowler Oldfield only after learning about the regulator's decision against NatWest for its ties with the same firm. FCA stated that Barclays' provision of ongoing banking services to Stunt & Co. facilitated the transfer of funds related to financial crime. The Financial Watchdog has charged John Dance, a former principal partner of WealthTek with fraud and laundering over 64 million pounds in client accounts. This was done last December. Barclays, according to the FCA, would have known that WealthTek is not allowed to hold client funds if it had checked the Financial Services Register prior opening the account. Barclays didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment. Raechel Thankam Jobs and Yadarisa Shabong, both in Bengaluru, reported the story; Rashmi aich edited it.
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Kuvimba's revised platinum mine plan in Zimbabwe as prices rise
Trevor Barnard, the CEO of Zimbabwe's Kuvimba Mining House, said that the company will move forward with its Darwendale Platinum Project as an open pit instead of the previously planned underground mine. This project is being accelerated as platinum prices are rising. The project, which was launched by the former president Robert Mugabe in September 2014 and Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov, initially consisted of an underground mine. It would have cost $450 million for the first phase. In 2022, the project was put in jeopardy when Kuvimba’s Russian joint-venture partner resigned and prices for platinum group metals, which are mainly used to reduce vehicle emissions, plummeted. Barnard said in an interview that Kuvimba was moving away from its "big-bang approach" and will start with an open mine at a cost of initial $50 million. Barnard stated that the project's scope and phased approach had changed significantly. It's difficult to raise $450 millions for a project in Zimbabwe, let alone a platinum one. He said that instead, the funds would come from Mutapa, Zimbabwe's sovereign fund, as well as cash generated internally and "a bit of debt." The company has also three gold mines which will produce 116,000 ounces of gold in 2024. Analysts believe that rising platinum prices could be used to revive projects that were halted when the price was at its lowest. This is due to a rise in Chinese imports, and a decrease in South Africa's supply. The price of platinum rose by 36% in the second quarter. Prices soared by 28% in June as hedge funds and traders piled into the market. The month was their best since 1986, and they reached a record high of $1432.6 per ounce, an 11-year old high. Tharisa delayed its $391-million Karo PGM mine in Zimbabwe because of low metal prices. On July 9, it said that the company was "working to accelerate the final development", as improved commodity prices helped boost its balance sheet. (Reporting and editing by Nelson Banya, Barbara Lewis and Chris Takudzwa Muronzi)
Gold nears 2-week low following Trump's announcement of Israel-Iran ceasefire
Gold prices dropped to their lowest level in nearly two weeks on Tuesday, as risk appetite increased after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Iran and Israel agreed to a truce. This lowered demand for safe haven assets.
As of 0257 GMT spot gold fell 0.5% to $3351.47 per ounce after reaching its lowest level since the 11th of June earlier in session.
U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.9% to $3365.30.
Ilya Spirak, the head of global macro for Tastylive, said: "It appears that there is a lot of geopolitical risks leaving the market in the near-term after we've seen signs of deescalation between Iran and the U.S."
Trump announced that Israel and Iran would cease all hostilities. This could end the 12-day conflict which saw millions of Iranians flee Tehran, and raised fears about further escalation.
Israel did not immediately comment. Israel has not yet responded. An Iranian official confirmed earlier that Tehran had agreed on a ceasefire. However, the country’s foreign minister stated there would be no cessation unless Israel stopped their attacks.
Oil prices fell to their lowest level in a week after Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Michelle Bowman, Vice-Chairperson for Supervision at the U.S. Federal Reserve, said that it is time to lower interest rates due to possible risks on the job market.
Investors are awaiting the testimony of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to be given before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday. Powell has been careful to signal near-term ease.
Spivak stated that "the bias is in favor of gold prices, but there could be a short-term correction and an increase in the dollar in the near term if Powell can convince markets they won't cut more than two times this year."
In an environment with low interest rates, gold tends to flourish.
Silver spot fell by 0.1% at $36.10 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.2% to 1,292.39 and palladium was down 0.4% to $1,000.05. (Reporting and editing by Rashmia Aich, Mrigank Dhaniwala and Anmol Chaubey from Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)