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Iron ore prices fall on increased Sino-US tensions and China stimulus uncertainty

Iron ore prices fall on increased Sino-US tensions and China stimulus uncertainty

The price of iron ore futures fell on Wednesday as the trade tensions between China and America escalated, causing concerns about demand prospects. Meanwhile, doubts grew over stimulus prospects after a series of positive Chinese data.

The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange recovered some of its earlier losses and ended daytime trading 0.14% lower, at 708 yuan per metric ton.

As of 0717 GMT, the benchmark May iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 1.28% to $97.35 per ton.

Data released on Wednesday showed that China's economy grew by 5.4% in the first quarter of this year, exceeding estimates. This growth was largely due to solid industrial output and consumption.

China's new-home prices were also unchanged from the previous month in March, indicating a slight improvement over February when prices dropped 0.1% on a month-to-month basis.

The hopes that Beijing would launch an aggressive stimulus program to counter U.S. Tariff shocks in order to achieve its annual target of growth have somewhat dimmed. This has put downward pressure on ferrous markets.

Prices fell despite signs that supply was lower and demand was resilient.

Rio Tinto has reported its lowest iron ore shipment in the first quarter since 2019. The company also warned that further weather disruptions may lead to an unmet forecast for 2025.

Brazilian miner Vale has produced 67.7 millions metric tons iron ore during the first quarter 2025. This is down 4.5% compared to a year ago.

China's crude output of steel in March increased 4.6% compared to the previous year. This was due to higher margins and robust international exports.

Coking coal and coke, the other steelmaking ingredients, were both mixed.

The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have lost ground. Rebar dropped 1.06%, while hot-rolled coils fell 1.05%. Wire rod also lost 0.72%, and stainless steel was down by 0.08%.

Analyst Zhuo Quqiu at Jinrui Futures said that the steel demand showed signs of easing from last week. The impact of trade tensions in May will likely be seen.

The focus is on the potential stimulus, its timing and size. (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Colleen Waye and Mrigank Dhaniwala).

(source: Reuters)