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Some China producers begin maintenance due to the falling alumina prices

The falling prices are causing Chinese alumina manufacturers, who rushed to increase capacity last year after prices surged due to a shortage of bauxite as a raw material, to be squeezed. Some have shut down their capacity in April for maintenance.

Alumina prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen by almost half since their December 4 record. This is due to expanded capacity of the key ingredient in aluminium production and the eased supply of bauxite.

Mysteel, a provider of information, predicts that China's alumina production capacity will increase by 20% this year, or 19,8 million metric tonnes. Mysteel's data shows that 60% of the existing capacity operates at a loss, averaging around 300 yuan per ton.

Research firm Aladin reported that small-scale maintenance was carried out in April to reduce alumina output by around 5% in comparison to March. This will be mainly in Shanxi province and Shandong provinces where there is insufficient bauxite locally, forcing producers to import more expensive bauxite.

According to Mysteel, China's alumina production rose by 1% from March 2024.

Analysts and traders say that despite the fact that alumina refineries are reliant on long-term contracts with aluminium melters, it is unlikely they will make large-scale cuts this year.

Our long-term customers would find another supplier if we started maintenance to reduce production. We'd also lose our credibility, said a trader at a medium-sized alumina refining plant, who declined to be identified as he was not authorized to speak to media.

Alumina prices are also being pushed down by the increased supply of bauxite.

Customs data revealed that bauxite imports into China increased by 26% in the first two month of this year. Zijin Tianfeng Futures stated that the 40 million ton expansion of bauxite production planned for this year by Guinea and Australia would be more than enough to offset the 14 millions tons lost last year due Guinea Alumina Corp suspending bauxite imports.

(source: Reuters)