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Sources say that over 100 employees have left the US EIA, which puts vital energy data in danger.
Three sources said that the U.S. Department of Energy's statistics division is likely to lose more than 100 employees following the latest round of resignations offered by the Trump Administration. This puts at risk the world's most closely followed energy reports, they added. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes data weekly, monthly, and annually on crude and fuel stocks, oil and gas production, and price forecasts. These are used as indicators by energy companies and traders to determine supply and demand. These reports can have a significant impact on global oil prices. Two sources stated that the EIA had about 350 employees. They said 40% had either left or accepted buyouts. According to one source, the number of departures could be as high as one third, but other sources, such as three EIA employees, claim that the number is in the dozens. Two sources stated that the agency was assessing which reports it could continue to release and those it may have to stop. The EIA has not responded to a comment request. One source claimed that the agency had discussed changing its release schedule. Source: Staffing issues were cited as the reason for the recent shift in publishing the weekly gasoline and diesel fuel updates on Tuesday mornings instead of Monday afternoons. A source stated that many research initiatives including white papers and working papers have been placed on hold indefinitely due to a lack of staff. Regular reports could be modified or shortened. It's difficult to predict whether the weekly energy data will continue. One source said, "I can't imagine how they'll continue over time." Three sources, without specifying the projects, said that the EIA has put new project development on hold or been delayed. Analysts are concerned about the loss of independent data. The EIA data was a great help in determining prices and leveling the playing field. John Kilduff is a partner at Again Capital. He said that it would be detrimental to not have this data. He has used the EIA data as input in every model for more than 20 year. More than 2,600 Department of Energy employees have accepted resignation offers. The hardest hit offices were those dealing with power grid stability, and loans for high tech energy projects. A DOE spokesperson responded to an article's request for comments by saying that the DOE was conducting a review of its entire organizational structure. The spokesperson stated that "no final decisions have yet been made, and multiple plans still remain under consideration." EIA may be the only government agency that publishes such detailed statistics so frequently. Market participants therefore closely monitor its publications in order to make informed trading decisions. The EIA also publishes smaller articles for the public to help explain the jargon and describe the trends in the energy industry. EIA data is used by industry analysts to create their own models or to confirm their models. According to the website of the agency, its data, analyses and forecasts do not require approval from any officer or employee of U.S. Government, thereby ensuring that it is free of bias. Kilduff stated that "This information will be held closely by companies and I do not think that it would be shared with the industry." Reporting by Arathy S. Somasekhar, Stephanie Kelly, in New York and Valerie Volcovici, in Washington D.C.
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Kennedy to study environmental factors in autism
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the U.S. Secretary of Health, said on Wednesday he intends to commission a number of studies in order to identify environmental factors that contribute to autism. He claims these are related to its increasing prevalence across the nation. Kennedy, speaking at his first Press Conference since becoming Secretary of Health and Human Services said that the studies will examine mold, air and water, food, medicine and ultrasounds as well as parental risk factors such age, obesity and diabetes. Kennedy spoke a day after U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a data-analysis showing that the prevalence of autism in the U.S. for 8-year olds by 2022 was 1 in 31. The data were published in CDC's Weekly Report. Autism is not known to have a cause, but experts believe it may be a result of combining genetic and environmental factors. The increase in autism rates is attributed by many experts to the widespread screening of children and the inclusion of a wider variety behaviors when defining the condition. Kennedy, a former lawyer for the environment, has promoted a link between vaccines, and autism, which is now debunked. He set a deadline of September for the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) to determine the causes behind the increase in U.S. Autism rates. However, he said that by then, "some of these answers" will be available. Previous reports have indicated that the government plans to study the vaccines for measles, rubella, and mumps, as well as autism. Earlier scientific studies found no connection between vaccines, autism and previous scientific studies. Kennedy said he will also move the monitoring of autism rates from the CDC to the newly formed Administration for a Healthy America that he supervises directly. The CDC has previously enjoyed a degree of independence from HHS. Kennedy referred to the rise in autism as a pandemic, but patient advocates and scientist disagreed. The Autism Society is a patient advocacy organization that says the increasing rates are not an outbreak but rather a reflection of diagnostic progress and the need for screenings to be available at a younger age. The Autism Science Foundation released a press release that said researchers are currently investigating how environmental factors could work both independently and together with genes to cause Autism. Last week, a study confirmed that diabetes during pregnancy increases the risk of neurological and brain problems, including autism, in children. Reporting by Ahmed Aboulenein, Manas Mihsra, Julie Steenhuysen, and Sarah Morland, Washington. Additional reporting by Sarah Morland, Washington. Editing by Caroline Humer and Nancy Lapid.
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EU simplifies reporting requirements for deforestation laws by companies
The European Commission has made changes to the anti-deforestation legislation of the European Union that will take effect in December. The law will prohibit imports of products such as soy, beef and cocoa that are linked to the destruction of forests. Brussels delayed the launch of the policy by an entire year due to complaints from Brazil, Indonesia, and the former Biden administration. The Commission, in response to the industry's demands, published a set of rules late Tuesday that require companies to submit due diligence statements annually rather than each time a shipment or batch is placed on the EU marketplace. By the end June, the EU categorises countries as either high, standard, or low risk. Imports from low-risk countries will be subject to a lighter compliance requirement. In a press release, EU Environment Commissioner Jessika Rosawall stated that "our aim is to reduce the administrative burden for businesses while maintaining the goals of regulation." Brussels also rebuffs calls for more policy change and for easier reporting obligations from firms and some sectors, such as the U.S. Paper industry. Some campaigners criticized the changes, saying they weakened the law's efficacy. "Reducing reporting requirements to once a year from every batch is a pendulum that swings extremely from one end to the other. This raises concerns about the effectiveness of monitoring and enforcement," said Antonie Fontaine, director of VOICE Network. The nonprofit campaigned for reform in the cocoa sector. (Reporting and editing by Richard Chang, Maytaal angel and Kate Abnett)
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Mines ministry: Ghana takes over Gold Fields Damang mine
The Mines Ministry announced on Wednesday that Ghana has taken operational control of Gold Fields Damang after rejecting a renewal request from the South African company. The Johannesburg-based mining company announced on Monday that they had been unable to extend their Damang lease which expires on April 18 and were winding down its operations. The company had promised to end the mining operation in a planned manner, but it was still processing stockpiles in Damang. The Mines Ministry said that the return of Damang Mine to state supervision is a crucial step in Ghana's economic re-set, as it ensures its gold reserves benefit directly citizens. The decision was made to align with the policy of stopping the automatic renewals of mining permits in Ghana's gold-producing country, and to reassess the situation to maximize the national benefit. The ministry said that it was looking for value propositions in the use of our minerals resources which are aligned with this. The smaller of Gold Fields’ two mines, Damang is located in Ghana. Tarkwa is the largest open-pit gold mine in Ghana. Damang produced 135,000 gold ounces in 2024. This is about 6% of Gold Fields' total production of 2.15million ounces. The company is considering selling smaller operations, including the Cerro Corona mine in Peru and Damang in Chile. These are being sold to focus on the newly-commissioned Salares Norte project in Canada and the recently-commissioned Salares Norte in Chile. Reporting by Christian Akorlie, Maxwell Akalaare Adombila; Writing by Sofia Christensen and Editing by Kirsten Doovan
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World Bank's Banga is unsure about US aid for funding poor nations, even though Trump's dialogue was 'constructive.'
Ajay Banaga, the World Bank president, said that he had constructive discussions with the Trump Administration about the development lender. However he didn't know how much money the U.S. was going to contribute to the World Bank's fund which is for the poorest countries in the world. Banga told reporters if European countries reduced their pledged funding and the U.S. did not fulfill the $4 billion International Development Association pledge made by former president Joe Biden’s administration last summer, the $100 billion IDA funding round could be cut to $80 or $85 billion. This would be roughly equal to the $82 billion pledged for IDA support in 2019, but lower than the $93 billion replenishment expected in 2021. "We are having a constructive dialog with the U.S. Administration." Banga told reporters a week before the World Bank and International Monetary Fund's spring meetings in Washington that he didn't know how it would end but had no problems with the dialogue he was having. He added, "They ask the right questions and we are trying to give the right answers." CLIMATE STRATEGY ADAPTION When asked if he still supported the World Bank's goal of devoting at least 45% of annual funding to climate-related project by this year, Banga responded that many of the projects that will be included in the target are merely "smart developments" with climate benefits. He said that half of the funding would be used to help countries adapt and resiliency. Banga explained that the roof of a school was painted white, instead of red. This made it cooler in there. It's a heat-resistant variety of seeds and drip irrigation. Or a school which won't be swept away by a hurricane or a road which will not be washed out in a rainstorm. "Those are the things that are important in development." Banga stated that only a small portion of the total bank financing would be allocated to energy projects. Banga stated that the World Bank board will be considering an "all-of-the above" energy plan in June, "which includes not only renewable energy but also a transition strategy for everyone". He said that the World Bank would continue to finance energy projects using "gas, geothermal and hydroelectric power, solar, wind, and nuclear when it makes sense." This is the strategy that we will discuss with our board. Banga also highlighted the World Bank's reforms since he assumed the presidency in June 2023. These include making the lender more efficient and faster, as well as focusing on better development outcomes instead of financing dollars. Banga stated that by 2024, "nearly half of the public sector funding will be performance-based and linked to results. This is up from just 28% 10 years ago." Banga stated that the bank would make progress in its efforts to attract private sector funding to development projects and emerging market. (Reporting and editing by Mark Heinrich; Andrea Shalal and David Lawder)
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Sources say that the top Turkish refiner Tupras has resumed buying Urals crude from Russia.
According to three trading sources, and shipping data, Turkey's biggest oil refiner Tupras is now buying Russian Urals crude after stopping earlier this year because of stronger U.S. Sanctions against Moscow. Tupras didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Three sources confirmed that Tupras had resumed purchases following the price of Urals crude falling to its lowest level since 2023 earlier this month. The price was comfortably below the $60 per barrel G7 cap. The price cap imposed on Russian oil by the Group of Seven, the European Union, and Australia prohibits the use of Western services like insurance, flagging, and transportation, when the Russian oil is priced at or over $60 per barrel. The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions since October on several tankers suspected of violating the price cap. Tupras was one of the largest importers of Russian crude oil after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022. According to data from Turkey’s energy regulator, Russian oil represented 65% of Turkey's total imports of oil in January-November of 2024. In February, the company stopped buying Russian crude oil due to growing concerns about U.S. sanctions after the comprehensive package announced on January 10th. Trading sources familiar with the matter have confirmed that Tupras is expected to receive at least 2 cargoes of Urals in April. Tracking data indicates that one of the cargoes has already been loaded. Kpler, a global provider of real-time analytics and data, showed that the Nissos Christiana had loaded approximately 730,000 barrels (or a little over a million gallons) of Russian Urals oil from Ust-Luga in the Baltic on April 3. It is for delivery to Izmit on April 21, where Tupras operates a 225,800-barrel-per-day capacity oil refinery, the data showed. It was unclear if another vessel had been booked for Tupras to purchase additional cargo. According to LSEG, Tupras has two refineries in Izmit, and Izmir. These refineries have a combined capacity of 467.300 bpd for crude oil processing. Tupras, which had stopped purchasing Russian crude oil, began looking at alternative grades of crude oil, and made its first purchase last month of Brazilian crude. According to Kpler, other sources of crude imports for Tupras in March and April include Guyana (also Nigeria), Libya, and Norway.
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EU abandons idea of sanctions against Russian LNG imports
EU officials say that European officials have given up on pushing for an import ban of Russian liquefied gas in the bloc as part of upcoming packages due to resistance from certain governments and the uncertainty over alternative sources. The Commission instead wants to create a road map that will end the EU's dependence on Russian energy in 2027. The plan will be announced early in May, but there are few details. Officials say that the work on the measures has been slow. The Commission will likely propose a 17th set of sanctions against Russia in June. In January, when the Commission was finalising its 16th proposal package, it floated an idea to ban Russian LNG imports. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has stated that he wants the EU to purchase more American gas. EU officials view this as a potential negotiation tool for convincing the U.S. government to lower its tariffs. Washington has not yet clearly stated its demands. On Monday, the EU's Trade Chief met with his U.S. counterpart to discuss the beginning of negotiations. The Commission stated that the meeting was part of a "scoping process" and pointed out Washington has not yet clarified its demands. "The EU is doing their part. It is now up to the U.S.A. to clarify its position. "As with any negotiation, there must be two sides to this," said the statement. According to a Commission official, the Commission does not want sanctions to lose Russian LNG and thus surrender its negotiating position. The Commission and EU government are also cautious about creating a dependence on the United States. It is the third largest gas supplier in the EU after Russia and Norway. (Reporting and editing by Matthew Lewis in Brussels)
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Gold surpasses $3,300/oz in a bid to protect investors from tariff war
The gold price broke its record on Wednesday to reach $3,300 an ounce. A weaker dollar, and escalating U.S. China trade tensions, pushed investors toward the safe haven asset. As of 10:52 am, spot gold rose 2.5% to $330817 per ounce. After hitting a session high of $3.319.17, gold prices rose 2.5% to $3,308.17 an ounce at 10:52 a.m. ET (1452 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures rose 2.6% to $3324.50. Gold is heavily supported by the broadly weaker dollar and uncertainty surrounding tariff announcements, as well as fears of a global economic recession, said Lukman otunuga senior research analyst at FXTM. Gold prices are largely determined by psychological levels. Bulls could aim for $3,400 or $3,500 and higher. A bout of profit-taking, or positive U.S. China trade developments, could trigger a selling off." The U.S. president Donald Trump ordered on Tuesday an investigation into the possibility of tariffs on U.S. imports of critical minerals, marking an escalation of his dispute with international trade partners as well as an attempt to pressurize China. Investors have been pushed to gold as a safe-haven asset by the latest tensions between two of the world's largest economies. Gold is more appealing to other currency holders as the dollar has fallen against its rivals and held near a low of three years, which was reached last week. The price of gold has increased by nearly $700 in the past year. This is due to tariff disputes, interest rate reduction expectations, and central bank purchases. "The rally is a little unhinged and at risk of corrections." Since more than a decade, we've seen that corrections are shallow and that underlying bids await any setbacks," Ole Hansen said, head of commodity strategies at Saxo Bank. Investors are waiting for a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to be delivered later today. This will provide more information on the direction that interest rates may take. Other metals rose as well. Spot silver increased 1.5% to $22.75 per ounce. Platinum gained 1%, to $968.53. Palladium rose by 0.3%, to $974.20.
Gold's current rally - echoes from the 1980s, but with a more durable core
Gold's recent gallop to record highs has drawn comparisons to the 1980s, when political and economic turmoil was the primary driver of record prices. Market players, however, say that the nature of this rally and its potential ability to last is different.
Analysts say that with tensions high between historical allies due to U.S. trade tariffs, wars in Ukraine, and Middle East, it is unlikely that they will come together quickly to resolve issues that are driving the interest in gold as a safe haven.
HSBC analyst James Steel noted that the metal's recent surge above $3,000 per ounce was driven by President Donald Trump's latest round of tariffs against trading partners. This is the first time since a long period of time when geopolitics and uncertainty in the economy have been the main factors driving the gold market.
Gold spot reached a record of $3,167.57 a troy ounce in the last week. It is up by 16% this year and 27% for 2024. Analysts say that while the market's path will not be linear, gold's entry to uncharted territories looks more sustainable than it did 45 years ago.
Analysts said that because gold has an inverse relationship with trade flows and Trump's tariffs, including the announcement on Wednesday of Washington's highest trade barriers in over 100 years, has driven new investors to gold, fuelled from fear of a full-blown trade war.
Dollars are also known as safe-haven assets, but some signs suggest that their status is eroding due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.
Since taking office two-and-a half months ago, Trump upended the global order by signaling that the U.S. might not guarantee Europe's safety as Washington has done since World War Two and by radically changing the U.S. attitude to the war in Ukraine. He has also suggested that the U.S. could annex Greenland.
HSBC's Steel stated that the issues driving gold in the past 45 years - namely the Iranian Revolution and oil crisis – were resolved relatively quickly. This led to a decline in gold.
He said that the failure of international cooperation over the past few years had led to the price of gold remaining high. It leads one to believe... that there is a larger geopolitical demand in the market.
BREAKDOWN COOPERATION
Gold is being driven higher by a number of factors, including trade tensions.
In the 2020s, we saw a two-year pandemic of coronavirus, followed by Russia's war with Ukraine in 2022, China's property market crisis and Israel's Gaza war.
In the Ukraine War, Western sanctions were used to freeze half of Russia's reserves of foreign currency. Moscow was able to retain only gold. This led non-Western central bankers to turn towards gold as they wanted to diversify away from the US dollar.
Western bullion investment increased last year due to monetary easing, and concerns about budget deficits.
To resolve any of these issues, global cooperation may be required of a type not seen yet in the current chaos surrounding tariffs.
George Griffiths is the head of trading at AMT Futures. He said that unlike other crises in recent years, there was no prospect of global policy alignment.
The market has achieved many milestones this year, but one remains. StoneX analyst Rhona o'Connell pointed out that gold reached its peak in 1980 at $850, which is equivalent to $3,486 in today's dollars.
HSBC's Steel stated that while we had certainly reached new heights in nominal terms, it could be argued that we hadn't achieved the milestone in real terms.
This could change. This backdrop has led to a broader expectation of a longer run up, with 2026 being seen as the peak, rather than this year.
Michael Widmer, commodity strategist at BofA, raised his gold forecast on March 26 to $3,063 in 2025, and $3,350 respectively in 2026, up from $2,750 previously. He reiterated this on Sunday. He sees the spot gold price reaching $3,500 in two years.
Calling for $3,000 is easier than $3,500 in gold. What's the second risk? Widmer said.
"The risk that we go back to the situation of two years ago is that we will be in a world where there are no trade wars and where rates have been raised by the U.S. Federal Reserve, where economies have stabilized, and where sentiment has stabilised." The gold trade would then be over."
"But I don't think that it is likely." (Reporting and editing by Polina Devlin, Veronica Brown, and Jan Harvey).
(source: Reuters)