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Goldman Sachs raises 2025, 2026 average Brent forecast
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent Oil price forecast for 2019 and 2026 due to lower commercial inventories at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. This has led to a tighter oil supply. Goldman Sachs said that it has increased its Brent oil forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $78 and $73 respectively (from $76 previously). It also expects a $80 peak between April and May 2025. Wall Street Bank said that the forecast for OECD's commercial stock in 2025-2026 was lowered. This is mainly due to lower than expected oil supply from non-OPEC nations, excluding the U.S. The current OECD estimate has been reduced by 48 million barrels a day. Goldman Sachs has said that Brent oil could temporarily reach $93 per barrel if sanctions on Iran and Russia result in the supply of crude oil falling by 1,000,000 barrels a day. Joe Biden, the former U.S. president, imposed the most comprehensive package of sanctions against Russia's oil revenues and gas revenues earlier this month. This was done to give Kyiv, and Donald Trump's government, leverage to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine. The bank stated that Brent could fall to low $60s by 2026 under a scenario of a universal 10% tariff. Trump has promised universal tariffs at 10% on all U.S. imported goods. The new president announced on Thursday that he will decide soon whether or not to exclude Canadian oil and Mexican oil imports when he imposes the 25% tariffs on Saturday. Brent crude was trading at around $77 per barrel on Friday. (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema)
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Why is Russia trying to seize the strategically important Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk
After capturing a series of villages in its southern part, Russian forces have begun to surround the strategically significant eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk. Ukraine has also halted its production at its one coking coal mining near this city. Here are some key facts about Pokrovsk - which Russians refer to by its Soviet era name, Krasnoarmeysk - and the battle for power. What is POKROVSK? Pokrovsk, a hub for road and rail in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk Region, had an estimated 60,000 residents before the war. According to a Ukrainian Police statement from late January, the majority of residents have fled. Only 7,000 people remain. The town is located on a major road that the Ukrainian military uses to supply other eastern outposts in conflict, such as the heavily fought-for towns of Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka, both in the Donetsk Region. The only coking coal mine in Ukraine, which was vital to the pre-war economy and its steel industry, is located around 10 km (6 miles) west of Pokrovsk. Metinvest, the Ukrainian steelmaker, announced in mid-January that it had halted the mine's operation due to the deteriorating situation. The steelmakers' union said that the loss of this mine threatens to reduce Ukraine's output by more than half. Pokrovsk is home to the oldest and largest technical university in the region, which has been operating since 2014. Shelling has damaged the university and now many of its windows have been blown out or are boarded up. Why does Russia want Pokrovsk? Moscow claims to have annexed Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk Region and views the control of Pokrovsk, as a crucial step towards incorporating the whole region into Russia. Kyiv, the West and other countries reject Russia's territorial claims and accuse Moscow waging a colonial war. The Russian media refer to the city as "the gateway to Donetsk". This would allow Moscow to disrupt Ukrainian supply routes along the eastern front, and boost its campaign for Chasiv Yar which is located on higher ground, offering the potential to control a larger area. By limiting the Ukrainian military’s access to the nearby road network, Kyiv’s troops would be unable to maintain pockets of territory on either side of Pokrovsk. This could allow Russia advance its front line. Open source data indicates that Russian forces have begun to surround the city from the south and southeast in a pincer-like movement. What is the UKRAINE doing to defend Pokrovsk? The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy replaced Brigadier-General Andriy Hatov on Jan. 26, the commander of eastern front, which includes Pokrovsk. He said the move was intended to strengthen command of troops within the Donetsk Region. Hnatov has been replaced by Major-General Mykhailo Draptyi as the commander in chief of the ground forces. He will continue to perform his previous duties. This was after the December replacement of General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, who had overseen the defences in Donetsk and been criticised for his failure to stop the relentless Russian push towards Pokrovsk by Ukrainian military bloggers. He was replaced by Colonel Oleksandr Ternavskiy. Oleksandr Syrskyi is Ukraine's top military commander. He has stated that his troops have been preparing for the Russians approaching by strengthening their defensive positions. Russian forces have taken over villages and settlements to the south of Pokrovsk. Ukraine claims that Moscow is trying everything to gain a foothold, but has suffered huge losses. Moscow claims that Ukrainian forces have suffered serious losses. Both sides do not disclose the full number of casualties. Zelenskiy spoke to the troops who defended Pokrovsk and presented military awards. What does Pokrovsk look like now? Pokrovsk is no longer the vibrant city it once was. It has lost its electricity, gas, heating, and piped water. On Jan. 27, footage showed that the façades of apartment buildings were badly damaged. Streets were deserted, and elderly residents, who had taken refuge in a basement, were evacuated. A video from Dec. 20 showed shelling, anti-tank barriers called "dragon teeth" on certain roads, and a small grocery store running on a generator. Residents interviewed said that they would not leave their homes because they have nowhere to go, and they lack financial resources. Reporting by Andrew Osborn, Moscow; Anastasiia Mlenko, Kyiv. Editing by Mike Collett White and Frances Kerry.
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Thai EV production set to increase, sparking price wars in a battered market
Thai EV sales may jump by 40% in 2025 President of the association: Production and subsidy conditions are driving EV sales Analysts say that new supply and limited demand may intensify the price war. By Chayut Setboonsarng BANGKOK - Thailand's auto industry is already suffering from a slump in sales and experts say that a price war on EVs could be extended due to a rise in production by Chinese car manufacturers. Suroj Sangsnit is the president of Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand. He said that electric vehicle sales are expected to increase by 40% in Thailand this year. This will surpass 100,000 units, reversing a 8% decline in sales from last year. Sales are expected to surge due to a national incentive program that requires companies to produce 1.5 vehicles locally for every imported vehicle in the period 2022-2023 to qualify for tax incentives and avoid hefty fines. This programme, which includes up to 150,000 baht in price subsidies ($4,400), has helped the second largest economy of Southeast Asia become the biggest EV market in the region, with 70,000 new EVs registered last year. The country imported 84,000 EVs from 2022 to 2023. Analysts said that it could now intensify the fierce price competition on a market in which auto sales are falling due to tight credit conditions and escalating household debt. Great Wall Motor slashed the price of the Ora Good Cat by as much as 275,000 baht in January. GAC AION cut the price of the AION Plus by 166,000 baht. Both companies are Chinese. Tita Phekanonth is a senior analyst at the Economic Intelligence Unit of Siam Commercial Bank's (SCB) Economic Intelligence Unit. She said that price wars would be aggressive and widespread, as well as a possible discount for vehicles with internal combustion engines. Thailand is a major hub for auto manufacturing in Asia. It exports approximately three-fifths (35%) of its locally produced vehicles. In December, the Board of Investment (BOI), the organization that anchored the incentive program, made some changes to the rules. They extended the timeline for battery production and offered incentives for hybrid vehicles. This was done in order to alleviate concerns about oversupply and price wars. BOI chief Narit Tehrdsteerasukdi said that EV firms would also start exporting in this year, possibly easing the oversupply. He said that the EVs are not limited to either right- or left-hand drives. In fact, both EV models were produced in Thailand by Chinese automakers. Hathaiwal Tungkaterakul is a senior researcher with Kasikornbank. She said that BYD (China) and Neta have invested in other markets, such as Indonesia, and their EV exports are competitive with Thailand's. Weak demand in Thailand and abroad led to a 17th consecutive monthly drop in Thai auto production. Vehicle exports dropped 8.8% in 2024 while domestic sales plummeted 26%. This is the lowest level in 15 years. Oversupply Concern Thailand's auto industry, which was long dominated by Japanese companies, has seen an influx of Chinese investment in EVs over the past few years. This is due to subsidies and tax incentives that aim to convert 30% of Thailand's annual auto production into EVs by 2030. According to EVAT, China's BYD and Great Wall Motor, among others, have invested more than 102.7 billion Baht ($3 billion). BYD Great Wall Motor Changan GAC AION and BYD did not reply to a question about their strategies in anticipation of possible EV price reductions. Suroj is the executive vice-president of SAIC Motor CP, a joint venture between China's SAIC Motor Group and Thailand's CP Group. Suroj said that the local vehicles would be competitive, but they will only qualify for government subsidies if sold in this year. After which, support from the government will stop. BYD is already under scrutiny by the government for its deep discounts, which can reach up to 340,000 Baht per electric vehicle. A consumer watchdog cleared the biggest EV seller of any wrongdoing last year.
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Governor says that after a drone attack by Ukraine, fire was put out in the Volgograd oil refinery.
The regional governor announced on Friday that an oil refinery caught fire in Russia's southern Volgograd Region after a drone attack by Ukraine overnight. However, the blaze is now out. In a Telegram message, Governor Andrei Bocharov said that Russian air defences had foiled an attack on his region from eight drones. A fire was started on the grounds of an oil refinery as a result falling debris from a drone. The fire was quickly put out. "A refinery worker who was injured was hospitalized," he said. Andriy Kovalenko is the director of the Ukrainian Centre for Countering Disinformation. He said that the Volgograd Oil Refinery, one of the largest in Russia, was hit. In a press release, the Russian Defence Ministry stated that 49 Ukrainian drones were downed overnight over the country. This included 25 drones in southern Rostov and eight drones in Volgograd. It said that drones were also detected and destroyed by the Russian Defence Ministry in the regions of Kursk, Yaroslavl and Belgorod. Reporting by Moscow Buro. Additional reporting by Olena Hartmash in Kyiv. Editing by Andrew Osborn.
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Base metals fall as Trump reiterates tariff threat
Following repeated tariff threats by U.S. president Donald Trump, most base metals fell on Friday. Copper prices are on course for their worst two-and half-month period in recent memory. As of 0519 GMT, the benchmark copper price was down by 0.5% to $9,079.5 per metric tonne. Prices are down 2.1% this week and heading towards their worst week since November 11. Trump reiterated his warnings to Mexico and Canada on Thursday, saying that the United States will impose a 25% tariff. Trump said that he is still considering imposing new tariffs on Chinese products, citing the Chinese role in the fentanyl traffic. Natalie Scott-Gray is a senior metals analyst with StoneX. She said, "Base metals prices can be volatile depending on whether Canada or Mexico are able to avoid tariffs coming into play." She said that if Canadian and Mexican tariffs were avoided but Chinese tariffs persisted, the market would focus on possible global trade reductions, or economic shocks creating uncertainty in investment and consumer spending. China is the largest consumer of industrial metals. The dollar index increased by 0.3%, making the price of metals in U.S. dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies. After two consecutive sessions of gains, the price of three-month aluminium dropped by 0.7%, to $2,607 In a new package of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, the European Union proposed earlier this week to ban imports of metal from Russia. LME zinc dropped 0.4% to $2.782 per ton. Lead fell 0.2% to $1.963. Tin eased by 0.7% to $30.065 while nickel remained at $15.390. Shanghai Futures Exchange will be closed on February 5th for Lunar New Year. The markets will resume trading on Wednesday, February 5. (Reporting from Anushree mukherjee, Bengaluru; additional reporting by Ashitha sivaprasad. Editing by Subhranshu sahu.
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DeepOcean Lines Up Subsea Survey Work for Polish Offshore Wind Farms
Ocean services provider DeepOcean has secured a subsea survey contract on the Bałtyk 2 and 3 offshore wind developments in Poland which are jointly developed by Equinor and Polenergia.Under the contract, DeepOcean will conduct geophysical seabed surveys of the export and inter-array cable seabed corridors, utilizing a dedicated survey remotely operated vehicle (SROV).The work scope also includes surveys to map the seabed for potential unexploded ordnances (UXO). Polish company MEWO will serve as a subcontractor to DeepOcean for the UXO scope, using the vessel Amber Cecilia.The survey campaigns will be executed during early 2025.DeepOcean’s flagship survey vessel, Edda Flora, will be mobilized for the main scope, as well as the Superior SROV.The Bałtyk 2 and 3 offshore wind developments are a joint venture (JV) between Equinor and Polenergia, and will have a total combined capacity of 1.44 GW enough to power more than two million households.“A dedicated survey ROV will have significant efficiency gains when compared with the alternative of using slower work class ROVs configured with a survey sensor payload. We look forward to supporting Equinor and Polenergia on these important offshore wind projects,” said Øyvind Mikaelsen, CEO of DeepOcean.
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Base metals fall as Trump reiterates tariff threat
Following repeated tariff threats by U.S. president Donald Trump, most base metals fell on Friday. Copper prices are on course for their worst two-and half-month period in recent memory. As of 0259 GMT, the benchmark copper price was down by 0.4% to $9,091.5 per metric tonne. Prices are down 1.6% this week and heading towards their worst week since November 11. Trump reiterated his warnings to Mexico and Canada on Thursday, saying that the United States will impose a 25% tariff. Trump said that he is still considering new tariffs against Chinese goods due to its role in the fentanyl traffic. Natalie Scott-Gray is a senior metals analyst with StoneX. She said, "Base metals prices can be volatile depending on whether Canada or Mexico are able to avoid tariffs coming into play." She said that if Canadian and Mexican tariffs were avoided but Chinese tariffs persisted, the market would focus on possible global trade reductions, or economic shocks that could cause uncertainty in investment and consumer spending. China is the largest consumer of industrial metals. The dollar index increased by 0.3%, making the price of metals in U.S. dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies. After two consecutive sessions of gains, the price of three-month aluminum fell by 0.5% to $2.613. In a new package of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, the European Union proposed earlier this week to ban imports of metal from Russia. LME zinc dropped 0.6% to $2.776 per ton. Lead fell 0.1% to $1.965, tin slipped 0.7% to $30.055 and nickel rose 0.1% to $15.405. Shanghai Futures Exchange will be closed on February 5th for Lunar New Year. The markets will resume trading on Wednesday, February 5. (Reporting from Anushree mukherjee, Bengaluru; additional reporting by Ashitha sivaprasad. Editing by Subhranshu sahu.
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Gold reaches record highs as Trump tariff fears mount
The gold price hit a new record on Friday, and was set to gain for the fifth consecutive week, as investors sought out the metal for its safe haven value due to increased U.S. trade concerns. As of 0216 GMT spot gold was up 0.1% to $2,797.48 an ounce. This represents a 1% increase for the week. Prices reached an all-time peak of $2,799.71 earlier in the session. Donald Trump announced on Thursday that the United States will impose a 25 percent tariff on imports coming from Mexico and Canada. He repeated his warning to both countries. Gold is a good investment in times of geopolitical or economic turmoil. It also tends to do well when interest rates are low. "Repeated threats of tariffs have fueled safe-haven flows to gold... Any downside surprise in inflation could suggest greater flexibility for the Fed and potentially bring forward expectations for rate cuts, providing further support for Gold," IG Market Strategist Yeap Jun Rong stated. Further clues about the future of interest rates will be sought from the December U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Report, which is due at 1330 GMT. Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said that inflation and job data will determine when another rate cut is to come. In response to concerns over Trump's tariff plans 12.9 million troy-ounces of gold were delivered to COMEX approved warehouses Since late November, stocks have increased by 73.5%, to 30.4 millions ounces, their highest level since July 2022. Gold prices may rise to new heights if tariff threats become more than just a concept for bargaining. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst of KCM Trade. Spot silver fell by 0.7%, to $31.45 an ounce. Platinum remained at $967.22 and palladium dropped 0.5%, to $983.92. Silver and platinum are expected to gain in value this week, while palladium is set to lose.
BHP expands South Australia copper operation with Fluor Hatch
BHP Group, the largest listed mining company in the world, announced on Friday that it had contracted two engineering firms to expand copper smelters and refineries, including Olympic Dam, which is one of its largest copper projects.
BHP has contracted with a joint venture consisting of Fluor Australia Pty and Hatch Pty for the proposed expansion to be carried out in stages. The first stage will involve an investment in excess of A$40million ($25million) and is devoted to strategy and planning.
BHP stated that phase one of the expansion will involve upgrading the existing Olympic Dam smelter to a 2-stage smelter, and extending refinery facilities to have a capacity of more than 500,000 tons per year.
BHP stated that the final investment decision for phase one of the expansion of the smelter refinery is scheduled to be made in the first half fiscal 2027.
Fluor Australia, a subsidiary company of Fluor Corp, a Texas-based firm, has been involved with the design and construction of many projects around the world. This includes expanding a BHP Iron Ore Mine in Western Australia, in 2007.
Hatch, an engineering firm in Australia, has previously designed an electric smelting facility for a miner.
(source: Reuters)