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China imports record quantity of lead after Shanghai squeeze: Andy Home

China's imports of improved lead rose in August with the nation set to be a net importer of the battery metal for the very first time considering that 2020.

The abrupt shift in trade patterns arises from a squeeze on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) lead agreement in July.

A lack of deliverable metal in the mainland market led to a scramble for Western lead and simultaneously opened up an import arbitrage window with the London Metal Exchange (LME).

China's resurgent import appetite has actually halted a long-running integrate in LME inventory.

A redistribution of international lead stocks is clearly underway. The concern is whether this is a flash occasion or the start of a. more structural modification in east-west trade circulations.

SHANGHAI SHORTS

China imported simply 540 metric tons of lead in the very first. half of 2024 however volumes leapt to 14,000 lots in July and an. unmatched 53,000 lots in August.

It's possible that the record inflows in August consisted of. some Chinese metal that had actually been sitting in bonded warehouses. and re-directed to the domestic market. That in itself would be. a highly unusual phenomenon.

The trigger for the change in Chinese trade flows was a July. squeeze on the ShFE lead contract which was the climax of a. long-running fight in between Shanghai bulls and bears.

Tightness in the front part of the forward curve was. exacerbated by exceptionally low exchange stocks as on-warrant ShFE. stock fell listed below 10,000 loads in August. Additionally, short-sellers seeking to provide physical metal. against their positions struggled to discover the ideal lead after. the ShFE tightened its bismuth impurity limit in April. Numerous shipments were declined by exchange authorities, requiring. shorts to look overseas.

Fortunately for them, there is no lack of lead outside. of China.

LME stocks of registered and off-warrant lead rose every. month in between February 2023 and July 2024, when they peaked at a. integrated 350,000 heaps.

The uptrend reversed in August, when integrated stock fell. by 57,000 loads as metal was diverted to China.

SQUEEZE OVER?

The time-spread tightness on the ShFE lead market has. dissipated, the significant front-month premium changing to a. discount in the middle of September.

That has actually made imports less appealing, which must cause. a tail-off in inbound volumes after pre-booked shipments appear. in the next couple of months' customs figures.

Nevertheless, there has been no continual reconstruct in Shanghai. exchange inventory. On-warrant stocks rose to 54,500 loads. mid-September however have considering that relapsed to 34,760 loads.

Overall ShFE deliverable stocks closed recently at 44,566. loads, still much lower than LME registered stocks of 194,300. loads.

The continued east-west stocks imbalance leaves the Shanghai. market susceptible to restored tightness, particularly if there is. a resumption of bull-bear hostilities.

BATTERY SCRAP SHORTAGE

Although China's shift from net exporter to net importer has. been activated by a squeeze on the futures market, it is rooted. in physical market characteristics.

The world's biggest manufacturer of refined lead has seen output. decline this year with both primary and secondary operators. experiencing tight accessibility of feed.

Imports of lead concentrates were down by 9.2% over the. first 8 months of 2024 and primary smelter output fell by. 4.5% over the January-September period, according to local data. service provider Shanghai Metal Market (SMM).

The secondary sector, which processes refined lead from. battery scrap, has fared even worse with output down by 34.4%. year-on-year in September, according to SMM.

The problem is an absence of battery scrap due both to a moderate. 2023-2024 winter, meaning less battery failure, and changes to. local government reward schemes, according to experts at. Macquarie.

Prices for battery scrap are higher than for main metal. in parts of the Chinese market, compressing margins for numerous. smelters, SMM reports.

China doesn't allow imports of scrap lead, suggesting the. supply tension has transferred to the primary metal segment of the. supply chain.

WORLDWIDE SURPLUS

Falling Chinese production is the main reason the. International Lead and Zinc Study hall anticipated international output. of refined result in fall by 0.2% this year at the organisation's. biennial meeting in September.

The group still anticipates an international supply surplus of 63,000. heaps this year following on a 106,000-ton surplus in 2023.

However, that's a limited number in a 13-million ton market. and a forecast that is highly depending on whether Chinese lead. production can recover over the balance of the year.

Additionally, the international picture is presently masking a strong. divergence between China and the rest of the world. The burst of. imports over July and August hasn't totally resolved that space.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a. columnist

(source: Reuters)