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Trump's trade tariffs and threats
Since returning to office in January, Donald Trump has issued numerous tariff threats. These range from a duty on all imports to a targeted tariff on certain sectors or countries. Trump's threats changed over time. This left other nations and business unclear as to what was next. It also created uncertainty for consumers and triggered a recent stock-market selloff. Here's a summary of Trump’s threats and actions in relation to trade. BROAD TARIFFS Trump's vision is based on a gradual roll-out of tariffs that will apply to all U.S. imported goods. Last month, Trump asked his team of economists to devise plans for reciprocal duties on all countries that tax U.S. imports. They also had to come up with ways to combat non-tariff barriers, such as vehicle safety regulations that exclude U.S. automobiles and value added taxes that raise their costs. Trump announced on March 30 that he planned to announce a massive tariff program, which he called "Liberation Day." All nations will be included in the reciprocal tariffs that he plans to announce. The potential counter-tariffs imposed by global trading partners on U.S. agricultural and energy exports, as well as machinery and equipment, could escalate into a world trade war and create uncertainty for investors and businesses. Specific COUNTRIES Trump's tariff proposal targets several key trading partners. MEXICO AND CANADA : Mexico and Canada were the two largest trading partners of the U.S. from 2024 to November. Trump's new tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico, Canada and the European Union took effect on 4 March as a response to migration and fentanyl. Tariffs were imposed on the majority of goods imported from Mexico and Canada. A 10% tax was also imposed on Canadian energy imports. Canada exports mainly crude oil, other energy products and cars and auto components within the North American automotive manufacturing chain. Mexico exports a variety of goods to the U.S., including industrial and automotive products. Canada retaliated with 25% tariffs against US imports worth C$30 billion (US$20.7 billion), including orange juice and peanut butter. Other products include beer, coffee, motorcycles, appliances, and motorbikes. The Canadian government said that it would add additional tariffs to C$125 billion worth of U.S. products if Trump's Tariffs are still in effect in 21 days. This could include vehicles, steel and aircraft, as well as beef and pork. In his address to Congress on March 4, Trump said that further tariffs will be implemented by April 2, including "reciprocal duties" and non-tariff measures to address trade imbalances. U.S. Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that U.S. officials could still work out a partial solution with the two neighboring countries, and added that they need to do more in the fentanyl arena. Trump retracted his planned tariffs of 50% on Canadian steel and aluminum after a Canadian official backed down from plans to impose a 25% surcharge for electricity exported to the United States. Canada, which is the largest foreign supplier of aluminum and steel to the United States (C$29.8 Billion), announced on March 12 that it would impose retaliatory duties on U.S. imports worth C$29.8 Billion ($20 billion) as a response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs. CHINA: Trump imposed 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports to the U.S. effective February 4, after repeatedly warning Beijing that it was not taking enough measures to stop the flow of illegal drugs into the United States. Trump then added another 10% tariff on Chinese products, which took effect on March 4. This is on top of the 25% tariffs that were imposed during Trump's initial term on Chinese imports. China announced additional tariffs between 10% and 15% on some U.S. Imports starting March 10, as well as a number of new export restrictions for certain U.S. Entities. It then complained to the World Trade Organization about the U.S. Tariffs. China announced on March 12, that it will take all measures necessary to protect its rights and interest, following the increase in tariffs by U.S. president Donald Trump on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum. Trump has said that the EU, and other countries, have alarming trade surpluses against the United States. He said that the products of the other countries will be subject to tariffs, or he would demand they purchase more oil and natural gas from the U.S. despite the fact that U.S. export capacity for gas is close to its limit. In a statement released on 14 February, the European Commission stated that the "reciprocal trade policy" was a step backwards. Trump has threatened to impose a "reciprocal rate" of 25% on European goods. Pharmaceuticals are among the industries that could be affected, since U.S. companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and others have large facilities in Ireland. Ireland is also a leading exporter of medical equipment. In response to the U.S. blanket tariffs on aluminum and steel, the European Union announced on March 12 that it would begin imposing counter-tariffs next month on goods worth 26 billion euros. Trump announced on March 13 that he would slap 200% tariffs on European wines and spirits as a response to EU plans to impose tariffs next month on American whiskey, among other products. PRODUCTS AUTOS: Trump announced a 25% tariff for imported cars and light truck on March 26. The 25% tax would be added to previous duties on imported finished vehicles beginning on April 3. Trump's directive includes temporary exemptions for auto components that comply with the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), a trade agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term. The tariffs will apply to other major imports of automotive parts. These are identified by Trump as "engines and engines parts, transmissions, powertrain components, and electrical component" and they will be imposed on a specific date that is to be announced in the Federal Register, but no later than "May 3, 2025." Metals: On March 12th, Trump raised tariffs for all imports of steel and aluminum to 25% and extended duties to hundreds downstream products. These include everything from nuts and bolts, to bulldozers blades, to soda cans. More than half of the U.S.'s aluminum and steel imports come from Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. Trump ordered on February 25, a new investigation into the possibility of new tariffs on imports of copper to rebuild U.S. manufacturing of this metal, which is critical for electric vehicles, military equipment, semiconductors, and a variety of consumer goods. Just over half of the refined copper that America consumes every year is produced domestically. SEMICONDUCTORS : Trump stated that tariffs would start at "25% or higher" and increase substantially over a period of one year. He did not specify when they will be implemented. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the largest contract chipmaker in the world, produces semiconductors for Nvidia and Apple, among other U.S. customers. In 2024, it will generate 70% of its revenues from North American clients. LUMBER: On March 1, Trump ordered a new investigation into trade that could add more tariffs to imported lumber. This would be in addition to the existing duties on Canadian Softwood Lumber and 25% tariffs for all Canadian and Mexican products. ALCOHOL: Trump threatened on March 13 to slap 200% tariffs on wine, cognac, and other alcohol imported from Europe in response to the European Union's plan to impose tariffs next month on American whiskey and products -- which is itself a retaliation for Trump's 25% tariffs that went into effect on steel and aluminium imports the day before. Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, Puyaan, Seher, Anmol, Choubey, Arasu, Kannagi, Basil, Aatreyee, Dasgupta, and Vallari Srivastava. Editing by Sriraj, Marguerita, and Alan Barona.
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Brazil's Petrobras and BNDES partners to buy carbon credits for Amazon region
The partners announced on Monday that Brazil's state oil company Petrobras, and Brazil's development banking institution BNDES had partnered to create a financing program for forest restoration initiatives in Amazonia. Petrobras, under the ProFloresta+ Program, will hold tenders for carbon credits generated by restoration projects. The winning bidders can apply for low-interest loans to establish projects from BNDES. The pilot phase of the program is expected to generate investments of 450 million reais (78.45 millions) for restoration. This will lead to the replanting and regrowth of 15,000 hectares of forest. Petrobras is expecting to sign contracts for long-term with up to 15 companies that will participate in an auction scheduled to take place in July. Magda Chabriard, Petrobras Chief Executive said that the company would open the door to green entrepreneurs obtaining subsidized credits. She added that the tender will establish the benchmark price of carbon credits from Brazilian restoration projects. Carbon credits are permits that can be traded to allow the owner of the credit to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases. Each carbon credit allows the emission of 1 metric ton or equivalent in other greenhouse gases. Petrobras began buying carbon credits when it announced that it would offset carbon emissions by using its premium gasoline Gasolina Podium in 2023.
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Owner Stroll: Aston Martin will continue to be in F1 for many decades.
Lawrence Stroll, the team owner of the Silverstone-based outfit, said that the Aston Martin brand would be present in Formula One for many decades to come. Aston Martin has announced that it will raise more than 125 millions pounds ($161.9million) from Stroll, the company's chairman, as well as the sale of the stake in its F1 team, which is controlled and owned by the Canadian. The billionaire stated in a press release that "these moves demonstrate Aston Martin's position on the Formula One Grid is as secure and ever." Aston Martin and its British racing-green colours will continue to compete in Formula One, thanks to the long-term sponsorship agreement that AML has signed with AMF1. The team's title sponsor, Saudi energy giant Aramco said Stroll had asked investment bank Raine Group for help in finding a buyer for Aston Martin stake. They said that Rainey would work closely with AMF1’s commercial chief Jeff Slack in order to find a strategic investor, who could add value long-term to the team and brand. (Reporting Alan Baldwin; editing by Ken Ferris).
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Petrobras reduces diesel prices first time in over a year
Petrobras, the state-run Brazilian oil company, announced on Monday that it would lower its refinery gate prices for diesel fuel for the first time since more than a calendar year. This is because local prices are currently higher than import parity. In a press release, the company announced that it would reduce the price of diesel sold by distributors to 3.55 Reis ($0.6197 per liter) starting April 1. Gasoline prices will remain unchanged. This is the first time the oil giant has changed the diesel price since February when they raised it by nearly 7%. It's also the first change since December 2023. The good news is that the leftist president Luiz Inacio Lula has seen his approval ratings plummet in recent months due to high inflation. Petrobras, under Lula's leadership, has implemented a new pricing policy that is designed to protect Brazilian fuel prices from the volatility of international markets, while maintaining a profitable sales model for the company. Petrobras made the move in response to the strengthening of Brazil's currency against the U.S. Dollar this year. This occurred at a time when global oil prices were trading below the levels they were at the last price increase. Petrobras diesel prices were above the import parity for most of this week and were 2% higher on Monday according to Abicom. Magda Chabriard, CEO of Petrobras, said at an event in Rio de Janeiro, that the company will also lower the prices of jet fuel, but did not provide any further details.
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Comex gold stocks are on course to reach new records in the coming months
Analysts and traders claim that gold stocks in Comex storage facilities are likely to reach new records within the next few days, due to the possibility of tariffs preventing shipments from other countries to the United States. According to the latest data from Comex (part of CME group), gold in US warehouses has reached a record high of 43.3 millions troy ounces, worth $135 billion, compared with 17.1 in November, when Donald Trump became U.S. president. On Monday, spot gold prices soared to new highs of $3,100 an ounce. Bullion prices are up 19% this year, after a 27% increase in 2024. Sources say that although gold flows have slowed, they are still continuing to flow to the U.S., as Trump promised to announce a massive tariff policy on Wednesday. He has called this "Liberation Day." A source at a Swiss refinery said, "There's still material going to America almost every day." The world's largest bullion transit and refining hub is Switzerland. Comex received 25.4 million ounces worth $79 billion in gold between December and March as the threat of U.S. tariffs on imports increased the premium between Comex Futures and London Spot Prices. These flows of gold, which are carried by planes at high speeds, are the most obvious example of how uncertainty has affected the price and the physical state of the market. BNP Paribas estimates that the Comex gold stock is equal to 5 years' worth of U.S. gold consumption. This comes out to 8.8 million ounces per year. Adrian Ash, BullionVault's head of research in London said: "I wouldn't be surprised if gold exports from the U.S. started anytime soon." The market may see a trend reversal or at least a slight easing if gold is not included in U.S. tariffs. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said: "If this is confirmed, there's no reason that some of these bars shouldn't be sent back to London. It remains the main trading center for physical gold." London, which is the largest gold trading center in the world, has absorbed the shock of the massive supply to New York. Liquidity improved, as central banks lent money and stored their bullion in the vaults of the Bank of England (BoE). According to three sources who are familiar with the situation and requested anonymity in order to disclose operations, the waiting time for loading gold out of BoE vaults is now only 2-3 weeks, down from 4-6 weeks back in January. BoE has declined to comment. London Bullion Market Association reported 8,477 tons of gold as of end-February - still six times the amount of gold in Comex gold stock. Analysts say that the price discovery process is still in London. (Reporting and editing by Pratima Deai, Aurora Ellis and Polina devtt)
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Italy investigates drone flights over EU facilities, suspected spying
Two sources who have direct knowledge of the case said that Italian prosecutors opened an investigation on possible terrorism and espionage after a drone flew over a research centre for the EU in northern Italy several times. Sources said that the European Joint Research Centre in Ispra on Lake Maggiore reported five drone flyovers by commercial drones in March. The images suggested the drone was of Russian origin. The JRC was opened as a site for nuclear research in 1960. The source said that the Milan Public Prosecutor's Office has launched an investigation into terrorism-related spies, including those who spied on military or political targets. Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said on X, that the allegations of possible industrial or military espionage are very serious. They fit a pattern he flagged previously. "A hybrid warfare is in progress." He said that it was as deadly as it was hidden. It's constant and suffocating. He didn't name any countries. NATO has accused Russia of hybrid attacks against the West, using hacking and sabotage as well as espionage. Russia has denied these accusations, claiming that the West is inflaming anti-Russian feelings. According to the JRC's website, the Ispra Centre is the third largest research campus of the European Commission after Brussels and Luxembourg. It deals with a wide range of issues including nuclear security and space, sustainable resource, migration, and transport. In a text message, an EU Commission spokesperson stated that the Commission was committed to protecting information, staff and network in the face of possible security threats. In this case, the spokesperson said that "we are not aware of any specific security threats or violations of the drone no-fly zones above the Commission Ispra Site". The two sources who had direct knowledge of this matter said that Ispra itself reported violations of its airspace. (Reporting and additional reporting by Giulia Segrit, editing by Crispiane Balmer, Ros Russel, Andrew Heavens, and Andrew Heavens).
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Stocks fall, gold reaches record levels as tariffs fuel recession fears
On Monday, global equity markets fell and gold reached a new record high after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that tariffs would cover virtually all countries. This stoked fears of a global economic recession due to a trade war. Trump's comments on Air Force One to reporters seemed to put an end to hopes that the levies could be restricted to a small group of countries who have the largest trade imbalances. Trump will receive recommendations for tariffs on Tuesday, and then announce the initial level on Wednesday. The auto tariffs are announced the next day. All three major Wall Street indexes are trading lower. Losses in technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary stocks lead the way. Gains were made by energy, consumer staples and utilities stocks. George Lagarias is the chief economist of Forvis Mazars. He said, "What Trump's administration has shown so far is you shouldn't expect a consistent strategy." This is what most scares markets. Markets hate uncertainty and inconsistency. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.11% to 41.538.47. The S&P 500 declined 0.90% at 5,530.99. And the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.00% at 16,976.48. The STOXX 600 in Europe fell by 1.40%, its lowest level in nearly eight weeks. Major indexes in Frankfurt and London also fell between 1.7 and 2 percent. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 1.9%. Goldman Sachs analysts now see 35% of the chance that the U.S. will enter a recession. This is up from 20%. They expect Trump to announce on April 2 reciprocal tariffs averaging 15% for all U.S. trade partners. The data released on Friday highlighted the risks, as core inflation, a key indicator of inflation in general rose more than anticipated in February and consumer spending was disappointing. The March payrolls report, due Friday, is now even more important. Any result below the expected 140,000 increase will only add to the recession fears. Talley Leger is the chief market strategist of The Wealth Consulting Group, a New Jersey-based firm. In a slowing environment of growth, earnings will decelerate or even crash in a recession. This is another major fear on the market. "On the other hand, spiraling inflation would squeeze stock prices on the valuation channel." Gold prices continued their record-breaking run and reached a new high of $3128.06 Gold futures in the United States rose 1.3% to $3,126.60 per ounce. Spot gold increased 1.18%, reaching $3,120.27. On the currency markets, the dollar fell against the Japanese yen and rose against the euro due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs. The dollar fell 0.13% against the Japanese yen to 149.63. The euro fell 0.27% to $1.0799. The dollar gained 0.48% against the Swiss Franc to 0.885 Franc. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.22%. Bond investors appeared to be betting that the Fed will cut rates this year by 80 basis points due to the slowdown of the U.S. economy. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 3.5 basis points, to 4.219%. The yield on the benchmark German Bunds 10-year fell by 2.6 basis points in Europe to 2.706%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Friday speech, which follows a number of Fed speakers during this week, could provide a clearer picture on the outlook for interest rates. Brent oil rose by 1.41%, to $74.67 per barrel. U.S. crude gained 2.34%, to $70.99 a barrel. Trump also threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers if he believed that Moscow was blocking his efforts to end Ukraine's war. Reporting by Chibuike OGOH in New York, Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Lincoln Feast; Aidan Lewis, Jan Harvey, Joe Bavier and Lincoln Feast
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Three missing US Army Soldiers found dead in Lithuania
Three of the four U.S. Army troops who went missing last week in Lithuania when their vehicle was stolen Sunk in a peatbog The Lithuanian President said that the search continues for the last soldier. Lithuania said on Monday morning that the armoured vehicles of the missing soldiers had been recovered in a military area in the Baltic state. On social media, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nuseda said: "I received the news with great sadness and grief of the tragic death of three U.S. Soldiers." He said, "Lithuania grieves with the American nation." Nauseda stated that the search and rescue operations would continue until a fourth soldier was found. The soldiers and vehicle were missing from the Pabrade Training Ground near the border of Belarus. Reporting by Andrius Sytas, Anna Ringstrom, and Louise Rasmussen; editing by Stine Jacobsen and Terje Solsvik
Outlook darkens for China's already weak steel output: Russell
China's steel output slumped in July and is most likely to continue to fall in coming months as mills battle for profits amidst sluggish demand and seek to adhere to government guidance that makes sure yearly production shows no growth.
An overall of 82.94 million metric lots of unrefined steel was produced in July, down 9.5% from June and the lowest considering that December in 2015, according to official data launched last week.
For the first 7 months of the year, China's steel output was 613.72 million lots, down 2.2% from the same duration in 2023.
If that currently looks soft, it's poised to become even weaker in coming months, specifically if the steel sector is to satisfy the unofficial target of total output for 2024 being no more than what was produced in 2023.
Daily steel output for the very first seven months was 2.88 million loads, a rate that if maintained for the remainder of the year would lead to annual production of 1.05 billion heaps.
This would be the 2nd greatest on record after 1.07 billion tons in 2020, and go beyond the 1.02 billion heaps produced in 2023, in addition to the 1.01 billion loads in 2022 and the 1.03 billion lots in 2021.
If the 996 million tons produced in 2019 is likewise taken into account, it's clear that China's steel output has been mostly constant around 1 billion tons for the past 5 years.
This is mainly since steel need has actually levelled off and the authorities in Beijing have actually likewise encouraged an informal cap on production in order to limit contamination from the coal and energy extensive procedure of steel making.
In addition to not going beyond the previous year's output, China's steel mills are fighting weak margins, with information from consultancy MySteel revealing only 5% of producers are currently profitable.
The benchmark steel rebar agreement on the Shanghai Futures Exchange just recently dropped to the most affordable in more than 4 years, ending at 3,100 yuan ($ 434) a load on Aug. 15, down 24% from the start of the year.
Steel prices last had a gaining year in 2021, having actually ended each year since then at a lower rate, a trend likely to continue in 2024.
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Steel has actually been dragged lower by a protracted downturn in China's residential or commercial property sector, where investment dropped 10.2% in the first 7 months of the year compared to the same duration in 2023.
Beijing has attempted to stem the bad news by executing numerous stimulus procedures, including unwinded financing criteria, but these have actually up until now failed to lift confidence in the residential or commercial property sector.
There is likewise a seasonal component to China's steel production, which tends to peak around the summertime as mills increase output to satisfy the increased need for building.
However with building and construction in the doldrums it appears that steel output in 2024 peaked in May, and it's likely to continue trending lower provided the lack of optimism over a rebound in the property sector.
Another channel that has actually provided some assistance was exports of steel products, which are up 21.8% in the very first 7 months of the year to 61.23 million loads.
Nevertheless, that gain total up to an increase of only 10.34 million heaps, which while welcome to the having a hard time mills is hardly enough to make much difference to an industry with annual output of around 1 billion lots.
Exports may likewise be under danger of tariffs, with India becoming the current nation to begin an examination into accusations of China dumping steel into its market at prices that render domestic production uncompetitive.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a writer .
(source: Reuters)