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Outlook darkens for China's already weak steel output: Russell

China's steel output slumped in July and is most likely to continue to fall in coming months as mills battle for profits amidst sluggish demand and seek to adhere to government guidance that makes sure yearly production shows no growth.

An overall of 82.94 million metric lots of unrefined steel was produced in July, down 9.5% from June and the lowest considering that December in 2015, according to official data launched last week.

For the first 7 months of the year, China's steel output was 613.72 million lots, down 2.2% from the same duration in 2023.

If that currently looks soft, it's poised to become even weaker in coming months, specifically if the steel sector is to satisfy the unofficial target of total output for 2024 being no more than what was produced in 2023.

Daily steel output for the very first seven months was 2.88 million loads, a rate that if maintained for the remainder of the year would lead to annual production of 1.05 billion heaps.

This would be the 2nd greatest on record after 1.07 billion tons in 2020, and go beyond the 1.02 billion heaps produced in 2023, in addition to the 1.01 billion loads in 2022 and the 1.03 billion lots in 2021.

If the 996 million tons produced in 2019 is likewise taken into account, it's clear that China's steel output has been mostly constant around 1 billion tons for the past 5 years.

This is mainly since steel need has actually levelled off and the authorities in Beijing have actually likewise encouraged an informal cap on production in order to limit contamination from the coal and energy extensive procedure of steel making.

In addition to not going beyond the previous year's output, China's steel mills are fighting weak margins, with information from consultancy MySteel revealing only 5% of producers are currently profitable.

The benchmark steel rebar agreement on the Shanghai Futures Exchange just recently dropped to the most affordable in more than 4 years, ending at 3,100 yuan ($ 434) a load on Aug. 15, down 24% from the start of the year.

Steel prices last had a gaining year in 2021, having actually ended each year since then at a lower rate, a trend likely to continue in 2024.

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Steel has actually been dragged lower by a protracted downturn in China's residential or commercial property sector, where investment dropped 10.2% in the first 7 months of the year compared to the same duration in 2023.

Beijing has attempted to stem the bad news by executing numerous stimulus procedures, including unwinded financing criteria, but these have actually up until now failed to lift confidence in the residential or commercial property sector.

There is likewise a seasonal component to China's steel production, which tends to peak around the summertime as mills increase output to satisfy the increased need for building.

However with building and construction in the doldrums it appears that steel output in 2024 peaked in May, and it's likely to continue trending lower provided the lack of optimism over a rebound in the property sector.

Another channel that has actually provided some assistance was exports of steel products, which are up 21.8% in the very first 7 months of the year to 61.23 million loads.

Nevertheless, that gain total up to an increase of only 10.34 million heaps, which while welcome to the having a hard time mills is hardly enough to make much difference to an industry with annual output of around 1 billion lots.

Exports may likewise be under danger of tariffs, with India becoming the current nation to begin an examination into accusations of China dumping steel into its market at prices that render domestic production uncompetitive.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a writer .

(source: Reuters)