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Andy Home: The ROI-EV Revolution continues, but the battery metals are losing their charge.
The third year has been tough for battery metals like lithium, nickel and copper as the three markets struggled to absorb the supply wave that followed the price boom of 2022. The electric vehicle revolution continues. The demand for metals and batteries that power them is growing at an accelerated rate. It is only a matter time before the current glut of supply is absorbed by demand. This was at least the hope. Chinese companies are, however, embarking on a "simultaneous" technological revolution, as they seek to develop batteries that are ever more powerful at a lower cost. Battery chemistry evolves quickly and it is already apparent that not every battery metal will be successful in the fierce competition between materials. CHINA POWERS UP The road to electrification is currently bumpy. The U.S. president Donald Trump has reversed the Biden administration’s EV subsidies, and the European Union deferred the phase-out of combustion engine vehicles beyond 2035. The underlying momentum remains unabated. According to Rho Motion, global EV sales grew by 21% on an annual basis to reach 18.5 million cars in the first eleven months of 2025. China continues to be the driving force behind the global technological shift. This year, the world's biggest EV market grew by 19% and accounted for 62% global sales. No one should be surprised that Chinese companies are at the forefront of battery chemistry. The Chinese EV market is now dominated by batteries using lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistry. These batteries are cheaper and safer than those that use a combination nickel, cobalt, and manganese. The performance gap between them and those using NCM is also steadily narrowing. LFP was responsible for 48% global EV batteries in 2017. Macquarie Bank has revised its forecast to expect that this share will rise to 65% in 2029. This is a significant increase from the previous 49%. Nickel and Cobalt in the Slow Lane It is not good news for either Indonesia or the Democratic Republic of the Congo - the two largest nickel and cobalt producers in the world. Indonesia has not tempered its production growth in order to reflect the reality of new batteries, creating a tsunami surplus metal. The country's nickel is increasingly being shipped to a warehouse at the London Metal Exchange (LME), rather than to a battery-precursor plant. LME warehouse stock - registered or off-warrantee - has exploded to 338.900 tons. This is only the second time in 2021 that the LME nickel price fell below its long-term support of $15,000 per ton. The pressure on Indonesian policymakers?to curb their nickel boom has increased. Cobalt prices are also in a similar situation of chronic oversupply. Congo stopped exports in February, and then introduced a quota-based system in October. The slow implementation of new rules led to the complete stoppage of shipments of cobalt-based intermediates to Chinese refineries. Congo's supply discipline could become a supply shock. This could be costly for a nickel-based metal that already struggles to maintain its share in battery chemistry. The price volatility of cobalt and ethical issues associated with the artisanal mining industry in Congo are a concern for automakers. The events of this year will only exacerbate these concerns and could lead to a greater push for cobalt to be removed from the equation. LITHIUM DOMINANT ... FOR NOW China's shift to LFP chemistry reinforces the importance of lithium. Adamas Intelligence, a consultancy, estimates that 60,900 tonnes of lithium was deployed on roads worldwide in September. This is a 25% increase year-over-year, which matches the growth of total battery deployment. Nickel and cobalt lagged behind with deployment growth rates of 10% and 15% respectively. But lithium is also facing a new challenge. The Chinese battery giant CATL is a pioneer in the development of'sodium-ion Batteries. Naxtra is the latest version of this battery that will match or even surpass LFP batteries, which are replacing NCM chemistry. It also does so at lower costs. Robin Zeng, the billionaire founder of CATL, believes that sodium-ion battery could replace up to half of the market for LFP Batteries. The metal is a popular choice for storage batteries for power grids, which are a growing market. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, global installations of battery-based energy storage systems increased by 38% in the first ten months of 2025. Ford Motors has announced a charge of $19.5 billion on EV investments. At the same time, it is committing to invest $2 billion in batteries for energy storage system. HARD WIRED The EV battery materials landscape has changed dramatically since 2022 when the prices of lithium, cobalt, and nickel were all surging, on the assumption that these three metals would be at core for electric mobility. This is no longer true. The battery chemistry continues to evolve at a breakneck pace, thanks to unprecedented research and development. In 10 years, it is impossible to know what will power electric vehicles. It is certain that copper will remain essential for wiring vehicles and charging infrastructure. Aluminium will likely remain the preferred material for body frames due to its lightweight. The ultimate winners of the EV revolution may not be the metals that directly power a vehicle, but those who enable it. Andy Home is an author and columnist. Andy Home is a columnist. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance is available. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
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Gold's dollar strength is stable but it will gain weekly
Gold prices were not much changed on Friday due to a stronger U.S. Dollar and higher?Treasury?yields. However, bullion is still expected to gain weekly. As of 10:05 am, spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,338.37 per ounce. ET (1505 GMT) but was on track to record a weekly increase of 0.9%. U.S. Gold Futures gained?0.1% at $4,370.10. Dollar-priced gold is now more expensive for overseas buyers. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates also increased. "We are seeing some reactions to a stronger U.S. Dollar, higher yields on the curve and a slightly firmer appetite for risk since yesterday," Bart Melek said, global head of commodities strategy at TD Securities. "Markets have been consolidating under recent highs following the Fed's 25-basis point cut in December." In November, U.S. consumer price index rose by 2.7% compared to the previous year, which was below the economists' expectations of a 3.1% rise. Fed funds rate futures suggest 58 basis point rate cuts in 2026. Spot silver rose 1.5% to $66.38 per ounce. It is expected to finish the week 7.2% higher than it began after hitting a record-high of $66.88 an ounce on Wednesday. Silver's price has risen 128% in the past year, surpassing gold by 65%. This is due to strong demand for silver and supply constraints. Melek said that "Silver's price is driven by the interest of investors in ETFs... There is a lot of?interest in calling options, which prompts market makers to hedge underlying, causing a gamma-squeeze, as we like to call it." Gold discounts in India reached a record high of more than a month as wedding season demand was curtailed by record prices. In China, markdowns were at their steepest since August 2020. Platinum rose 2.3% to $1960.41, after reaching a record high of more than 17 years on Thursday. Palladium dropped 0.1% to $1693 after reaching a session high of nearly three years earlier. Both metals were on track for gains this week.
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ARKO Petroleum reports a nine-month drop in revenue in US IPO documents
In its latest?U.S. filing, fuel distributor ARKO Petroleum revealed a decline in revenue for the nine-month period. Companies are preparing to list in the first quarter of next year. The company posted a profit of $24.7 million on revenue of $4.27 billion for the nine months ended September 30. This compares to a profit last year, which was $32.7 million on revenue $4.92 billion. The offering is made as issuers prepare to list in the early part of next year, after the holiday season. They are hoping to take advantage a receptive marketplace. The year-end debut of tax firm Andersen and medical supply giant Medline was well received on Wednesday. After a period when the U.S. IPO market was hampered by President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which dampened new offerings, it has regained its momentum. Investor confidence and the appetite for new listings has also been boosted by Federal Reserve rate cuts. ARKO Petroleum, a U.S. wholesale distributor of fuels, supplies motor fuel in more than 30 states. The company was founded by convenience store chain ARKO Corp. and focuses on long-term, fee-based contracts for fuel distribution. It also sells fuel through its fleet fueling stations. The Nasdaq will list the company under "APC". UBS Investment Bank Raymond James, and Stifel were among the underwriters of the offering. Reporting and editing by Shilpa Majumdar, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Maju Samuel in Bengaluru.
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Chilean regulator launches 'unprecedented audit' of Codelco and SQM lithium deal
The Chilean Comptroller's Office announced on Friday it would launch an "unprecedented audit" of the lithium agreement between the state copper giant Codelco, and local producer SQM. The Comptroller's Office announced in a statement that it will "launch an unprecedented audit" as a response to complaints made by members of parliament about the Codelco-SQM Agreement. The regulator stated that previous court decisions prevented it from ruling on the majority of claims. Legislators questioned the decision to reach an agreement through direct negotiations rather than by a competitive process. They also questioned Codelco's choice of SQM - a company that has, among other things, pending tax lawsuits. SQM refused to comment on the audit. Codelco stated that it would "approach this process with transparency and professionalism", and that the audit would help to "reaffirm integrity" of its agreement with SQM. The statement stated that "the audit will confirm the integrity, rigor and soundness of process, including hiring and the work done by Morgan Stanley the financial advisor, who has played an important role in structuring this partnership." After several national and international regulators had approved the?agreement, the companies requested the Comptroller’s approval to finalize it. Codelco wants to form a joint-venture with SQM to 'produce lithium on the Atacama Salt Flats as part of President Gabriel Boric’s plan to increase production and expand state control. Codelco stated that it is still waiting for approval from the Comptroller's Office of the lease agreements between Corfo, the state agency for development and its subsidiary for properties in the Salt Flats. This process began back in September. China's Tianqi is a major shareholder in SQM and has attempted to block the deal, but so far without success, in Chilean courtrooms, arguing that shareholders approval should have been required.
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Namib Minerals will restart Zimbabwe gold mine that was mothballed in February
Namib Minerals' chief executive announced on Friday that the company will resume operations at its mothballed Redwing Gold Mine in February, as part of a $300 million investment program in Zimbabwe. Redwing has an estimated 2.5 million ounces gold, and it is the largest resource in the group’s Zimbabwean portfolio. This includes the How Mine that has produced over 2 million ounces from 1941. In a press release, Namib Minerals CEO Ibrahima Sory Tall stated that "after the completion of technical study, development work and infrastructure rehabilitation, we target annual gold production of around 300,000-ounces?from Redwing, as part our broader strategy across three properties in Zimbabwe." The company also said that it would start an 'exploration program as part of a long-term plan to increase 'Redwings' resource base by about 5 million ounces. Namib Minerals is the owner of three gold mines located in Zimbabwe. This includes another mine that has been mothballed, Mazowe Mine, which produced 1,36 million ounces from 1962 to 2018. Zimbabwe's gold mining industry, which has been struggling for years due to volatility in currency and policies, is now expanding production as a result of record high bullion prices. On December 17, the southern African nation reversed its plans to double their gold royalty rate to 10% after protests from miners and industry group. The gold royalty rate will remain at 5% for the current 'gold price. It will only double if the price rises to $5,000 per ounce. The large-scale mining companies, such as Caledonia?Plc, had warned of the impact a royalty increase would have on profitability and expansion projects. Caledonia said on Friday that it was pleased with the revision of royalty rates and the cancellation of plans to change capital expenditure tax treatment as evidence of the government's commitment to the mining industry.
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Wall Street is poised to gain after BOJ raises bond yields on RPT-Japan bonds
The yen and Japanese government bond yields both fell on Friday, after the Bank?of?Japan increased interest rates to an unprecedented three-decade level and left open the possibility of further tightening. The global stock market was muted, with Europe's STOXX600 slipping 0.1% and failing to match the strong trading sessions overnight in Asia and America. Wall Street futures indicated gains between 0.1% to 0.3% after Thursday's rally on the back of stellar results by chipmaker Micron Technology. Investors digested the news that the European Union will provide Ukraine with 90 billion euro ($105.4 billion), over the next two-years, but they failed to agree on an ambitious plan to finance it using frozen Russian assets. Oil prices rose slightly on Friday as traders weighed up the impact of a possible disruption of oil supplies from Venezuela. U.S. president Donald Trump said in an interview with NBC News that he would leave the possibility open. War with the Country On the table. Investors sold the yen in response to the widely anticipated rate hike by the?BOJ, and some profit-taking was triggered. The dollar last rose 1.1% against the yen, closing at 157.3. This prompted traders to think about the possibility of an official intervention in order to support the currency. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached a 26-year high and the Nikkei closed 1% higher. The BOJ?decision of raising short-term interest rates to 0.75% is another step towards ending decades of massive monetary support for the country. Analysts warned that the BOJ would have to take care to control inflation when Japan's new government plans to implement major fiscal stimulus. Shaniel Ramjee is co-head of Pictet Asset Management's multi-asset division. "Markets anticipate the Bank of Japan to have to increase rates even more," he said. "That extra fiscal expenditure might continue to weaken yen and exacerbate inflation." Abhijit Suriya, senior economist at Capital Economics, said that he expects BOJ rates to reach 1.75% in 2027. ECB AND BoE OFFER DISTINCT LEVELS of HAWKISHNESS The wider sentiment was boosted by a surprising slowdown in U.S. Consumer Price Inflation to 2.7%. However, analysts warned that the data had been distorted and should not be taken as a true reflection. The Federal Reserve's pricing moved very little with only a 24% implied rate cut for?January, and 10-year Treasury yields at 4,1471%. This is a far cry from the recent top of 4,209%. British bonds were hit overnight after the Bank of England cut rates, as expected, but only with a 5-4 vote. The policymakers have also expressed caution about the future pace of easing, and another cut will not be fully priced until June. The European Central Bank, which held rates at 2.0%, was even more hawkish and signaled a likely ending to the easing cycles. The markets indicate that there is only a small chance of a reduction in 2026. Gold fell 0.2% on the commodity market to $4,322, still trading below its peak in October of $4,381. Brent rose 0.3% to 60.01 per barrel while U.S. Crude was up 0.4% at $56.35 a barrel.
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Wall Street is poised to gain after BOJ raises bond yields on RPT-Japan bonds
The yen and Japanese government bond yields both fell on Friday, after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates at a record high. It also left the door open for a 'further tightening. The global stock market was muted, with Europe's STOXX600 slipping 0.1% and failing to match the strong trading sessions overnight in Asia and America. Wall Street futures indicated gains between 0.1% to 0.3% after Thursday's rally on the back of stellar results by chipmaker Micron Technology. Investors digested the news that the European Union will provide Ukraine with 90 billion euro ($105.4 billion), over the next two-year period. However, they failed to agree on an ambitious plan to use Russian assets frozen to finance this. Oil prices rose slightly on Friday as traders weighed up the impact of a possible disruption of oil supplies from Venezuela. U.S. president Donald Trump said in an interview with NBC News that he would leave the possibility open. War with the Country On the table. Investors sold the yen in response to the widely anticipated rate hike by the?BOJ, and some profit-taking was triggered. The dollar last rose 1.1% against the yen, closing at 157.3. This prompted traders to think about the possibility of an official intervention in order to support the currency. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached a 26-year high and the Nikkei closed 1% higher. The BOJ?decision of raising short-term interest rates to 0.75% is another step towards ending decades of massive monetary support for the country. Analysts warned that the BOJ would have to take care to control inflation when Japan's new government plans to implement major fiscal stimulus. Shaniel Ramjee is co-head of Pictet Asset Management's multi-asset division. "Markets anticipate the Bank of Japan to have to increase rates even more," he said. "That extra fiscal expenditure might continue to weaken yen and exacerbate inflation," said Shaniel Ramjee, co-head of multi-asset at Pictet Asset Management. Abhijit Suriya, senior economist at Capital Economics, said that he expects BOJ rates to reach 1.75% in 2027. ECB AND BoE OFFER DIFFERENT LEVELS of HAWKISHNESS The wider sentiment was boosted by a surprising slowdown in U.S. Consumer Price Inflation to 2.7%. However, analysts warned that the data had been distorted and should not be taken as a true reflection. The Federal Reserve's pricing moved very little with only a 24% implied rate cut for?January, and 10-year Treasury yields at 4,1471%. This is a far cry from the recent top of 4.209%. British bonds were hit overnight after the Bank of England cut rates, as expected, but only with a 5-4 vote. The policymakers have also expressed caution about the future pace of easing, and another cut will not be fully priced until June. The European Central Bank, which held rates at 2.0%?and indicated a likely ending to the easing cycles was even more hawkish. The markets indicate that there is only a small chance of a reduction in 2026. Gold fell 0.2% on the commodity market to $4,322, still trading below its peak in October of $4,381. Brent rose 0.3% to 60.01 per barrel while U.S. Crude was up 0.4% at $56.35 a barrel.
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NBC News reports that Trump has not ruled out war against Venezuela.
According to an interview published by NBC News on Friday, U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he would 'leave the possibility of a war with Venezuela out on the table. In a telephone interview with NBC News, he said: "I don't exclude it." According to the interview, Trump said that there would also be more?seizures' of oil tankers in Venezuelan waters. Last week, the U.S. seized an oil tanker that was sanctioned off Venezuela's coast. He told NBC News that if they were foolish enough to "sail along", they would be returning into one of his harbors. Trump ordered on Tuesday a "blockade," of all sanctioned tankers that enter and leave Venezuela, Washington's latest attempt to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s government by targeting its primary source of revenue. Venezuelan officials responded by rejecting Trump's "grotesque" threat. Trump's campaign of pressure on Maduro includes a stepped-up military presence and over two dozen military attacks on vessels near Venezuela in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea. At least 90 people have been killed in these strikes. Trump also said previously that the U.S. Soon, the U.S. will begin land attacks on this South American nation. Trump refused to answer the question in his NBC interview if he wanted Maduro removed. He told NBC News, "He knows what I want." Trump continued, "He knows more than anyone," referring to Maduro. The report didn't go into detail. Maduro claims that the U.S. is trying to overthrow him and gain control of the OPEC nation’s oil reserves, the largest in the world. The White House didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. (Reporting and editing by Alex Richardson and William Maclean in Bengaluru.
Copper prices rise as tight supply is in focus. Weekly gain expected
The price of copper edged up on Friday, and it was headed for a big weekly gain after a bullish forecast by Goldman Sachs highlighted the mine supply limitations. A stronger dollar also capped gains.
The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose?0.1% to $11,787 a metric ton at 1036 GMT. This is not far from the previous peak of $11,952 that it reached last week.
Metal, which is widely used in construction, manufacturing and power, is expected to increase by 2.4% this coming week, and almost 35% by 2025.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its forecast of $15,000 per ton for 2035 in a Thursday note.
The dollar index rose 0.3%, which limited gains on the LME. Dollar-denominated precious metals become more expensive to holders of other currencies when the greenback is stronger.
Thu Lan 'Nguyen is the head of commodity analysis at Commerzbank. "We're not as bullish about copper as some other houses. "We are saying that copper will most likely move to $12,000 sustainably within the next month. But I think the air has become thinner."
She noted that while high copper prices encouraged more investment in mining production, low nickel prices have led Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, to reduce output.
LME nickel rose a third time and was up by?0.7% to $14,745 per ton. This is after the Indonesian government announced that it would reduce nickel ore production next year by about?a third to 250 million tonnes.
After South32 announced that it would close its Mozal?smelter?in March, aluminium rose 0.4% to $2927.50. This is the highest level since May 2022.
Goldman still expects that copper will outperform aluminum in 2026, as China's push for critical metals abroad boosts aluminium manufacturing.
Lead increased 0.7%, zinc fell 0.1%, and tin rose 1.4%, reaching its highest level since April 2022. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jacobi-Phillips; Additional reporting and editing by Dylan Duan and Lewis Jackson in Shanghai; Reporting and Editing by Tom Daly)
(source: Reuters)