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China's 2024 iron ore imports seen at record on higher products, robust need

China's iron ore imports are likely to climb to an alltime high this year, helped by deliveries from India and Ukraine, in addition to resilient demand in the world's greatest consumer of the essential steelmaking active ingredient, analysts and market individuals said.

Imports are anticipated to increase in between 15 to 50 million metric heaps from last year's 1.18 billion heaps, according to 5 experts on the sidelines of a market conference in Singapore this week, versus earlier expectations of a decline.

China purchased 411.82 million tons of iron ore in the four months of 2024, up 7.2% from last year, even though crude steel output in the very first quarter fell 1.9%.

Enhanced logistics in the Black Sea are increasing products from Ukraine after two years, while a rebound in iron ore prices from a near six-month low in late March is motivating Indian exporters to ship larger volumes to China, analysts stated.

Export will be certainly higher this year therefore is the volume to China due to the fact that of relieving logistics issue in the Black Sea, said a Ukraine-based iron ore miner at the conference, asking not to be named.

China purchases the bulk of its iron ore from Australia and Brazil, with India and Ukraine being minor suppliers.

Brazilian mining company Vale stated it expects Chinese imports for 2024 at 1.170 to 1.180 billion heaps.

Arrivals from India will rise to 45 million lots this year from 36.52 million tons in 2023, said an east China-based expert.

China's iron ore imports from Ukraine fell to 660,317 tons in 2023 from 17.43 million lots in 2021, custom-mades data revealed.

Exports of iron ore from India have been increasing given that costs started recuperating, stated a Mumbai-based bulk shipping broker.

While China's steel market is fighting with decreasing demand from the beleaguered property sector and waits for steps by Beijing to curb output, iron ore need is most likely to benefit from expected financial recovery in the 2nd half of the year.

Last month, China's state coordinator said it will continue to manage crude steel output in 2024, without providing information.

China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, providing relief to officials trying to shore up growth in the face of drawn-out weak point in the home sector and mounting local government debt.

Around 90% of steel in China is produced from the basic-oxygen and blast-furnace furnace-based procedure, which requires iron ore, although Beijing intends to increase the share of steel made from electric-arc-furnaces utilizing steel scrap to 15% by 2025.

While Beijing has yet to reveal the exact timing and scale on its steel output curbs this year, analysts stated authorities may not enact stringent control steps as its goals to enhance financial growth.

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(source: Reuters)