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India's Gold Festival sees tepid Demand despite Price Surge
The gold demand at one of India's most important?buying festival remained muted as record prices curbed jewellery sales, offsetting an increase in investment demand. Indians celebrated Akshaya?Tritiya as the second biggest gold-buying holiday?after Dhanteras. The sharp rise in jewellery prices has curbed demand. "The sharp rise in prices curbed jewellery demand." Gold prices have fallen to a level of $4,861 from a high of $5594.82 on January 29, and now trade at around $4,861. Gold futures for 10 grams in India, which is the second largest gold consumer in the world, closed Friday at 154 609 rupees, or $1 670, a figure that was nearly 63% more than the previous Akshaya Tritiya festival. Surendra Mehta is the national secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association. He said that demand in the rest the country was lower than usual, except for a few southern Indian states. Jewellers in Mumbai have offered discounts on fees to create jewellery as a way to attract customers. According to data compiled by World Gold Council, India's jewellery consumption in 2025 will be down 24% from the previous year. However, investment demand is expected to rise 17% and reach its highest level since 2013. A Mumbai-based dealer of gold bullion with a private bank said that the buying patterns for gold in India have changed. Purchases are no longer only made during festivals, as price-sensitive customers make purchases throughout the year when prices drop. India published an order?Friday that listed banks authorized to import 'gold and silver. This is a relief to banks who were forced to stop imports due to the delay in publication. $1 = 92.5980 Indian Rupees
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US Energy Chief says Gas Prices Could Stay Above $3 Per Gallon Until Next Year
Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy secretary, said that he believes gas prices are at their peak but predicts they may remain above $3 a gallon for next year. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, and the?Iranian attacks on neighboring countries have caused gas prices to rise, creating political pressure for Donald Trump in advance of the midterm elections where his Republican Party is expected to defend a slim majority in the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Gas prices below $3 per gallon could happen this year. It might not be until next year. He told CNN's "State of the Union," that prices had likely peaked and would start to fall. Prices will drop when this conflict is resolved. Officials from the Trump administration have expressed differing opinions on gas prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted last week that gas prices would drop to $3 per gallon this summer. However,?Wright stated on Sunday that it will take a longer time to get to that price. Trump has stated that the gas prices could remain high until November. They all said that gasoline would eventually become cheaper after the Iran War ends. Wright stated that "under $3 per gallon, inflation adjusted, is a pretty incredible price." "We will get there, for sure." According to AAA estimates, the average price of a gallon regular gas was $4.05 on Sunday, up from $3.16 one year earlier. The?U.S. Iran and the United States agreed on a 10-day truce on Thursday, but Trump accused Iran of violating that agreement with its attacks this weekend on ships in Strait of Hormuz. Trump said in a post on social media that U.S. officials would arrive in Pakistan?on Monday for further negotiations. He posted, revisiting the threat he made before the ceasefire.
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Fuel prices in Bangladesh rise as a result of the Iran war
The Bangladeshi energy ministry announced late Saturday that retail fuel prices have been raised by 10 to 15%. They cited a sharp rise in crude oil prices globally and tightening supply due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. According to an official announcement, the new prices for petrol, diesel and kerosene are 135 taka per litre ($1.10), up from 116. The increase in import costs was unavoidable, officials said, as rising crude oil prices, supply-chain disruptions, and higher freight and Insurance costs have all contributed to the rise. This is especially true after the price of oil has risen during the seven-week Iran 'war. The rising cost of fuel in Bangladesh, where the nation relies heavily on imported fuels, is putting pressure on its already strained reserves of foreign currency. The government tried to cushion consumers initially through subsides, delayed price adjustments and tighter stock control. However, authorities stated that these measures were becoming increasingly difficult to maintain as global prices continued their upward trend. Dhaka already has more than 2? billion in foreign financing for energy imports. Fuel shortages have caused long queues at gas stations. Officials blame panic buying and hoarding as the cause of this. This latest price increase is expected to add to inflationary pressures in areas such as transport and agriculture where diesel is commonly used. It could also potentially raise food prices and overall living costs. Bangladesh has joined a growing number of countries that have adjusted their domestic fuel prices to respond to the soaring oil prices on global markets.
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Motor racing: Six injured and one dead in Nuerburgring race crash, officials
Organisers said that racing driver Juha Miettinen was killed and six drivers were injured in an accident at the 'ADAC 24h Nuerburgring qualifiers on Saturday. The race officials confirmed that Miettinen died following the early-race crash. All the other drivers who were injured were treated in hospital for injuries that were not serious. In the early stages of the first race of the ADAC 24-hour Nurburgring Qualifier, seven drivers were involved in a serious accident. The emergency medics, despite the arrival of the emergency services, were unable to save Juha Miettinen, after he was removed from the vehicle. The driver died in the Medical Centre, after all attempts at resuscitation failed. The race will not be resumed on Saturday evening and there will be a minute's silence during Sunday's grid formation. (Reporting and editing by Clare Fallon; Karolos Grohmann)
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Police in Kyiv kill a shooter who opened up fire
Ihor Klymenko, the Ukrainian Interior Minister, said that police killed a man on Saturday who had opened fire in a city district and barricaded himself inside a supermarket. Klymenko stated that the number of casualties?in this incident in the city’s?Holosiivskyi District was still being clarified. Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed that there were also victims inside the store. He had earlier stated the suspect killed two people. Klymenko posted on Telegram, a messaging app? that Klymenko uses to communicate with his friends and family: "The shooter was liquidated when he was arrested." Special forces from the...national police stormed a store where the attacker was. He took people hostage and fired at a policeman while he was being held. Negotiators had tried to reach him before that. Klitschko stated that 10 people were being treated in hospital. Five others were injured. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Chizu Nomiyama, and Ron Popeski)
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South Africa's central bank chief warns that the Middle East conflict clouds prospects for rate cuts
South Africa's Central Bank Governor said that it was difficult to see an easing of interest rates in the near future due to the volatile war in the Middle East, and its impact on the inflation rate. Lesetja Kganyago, the South African Reserve Bank Governor, said that the bank will not update its growth or inflation forecasts in between meetings. Instead it relies on "scenarios," to understand the impact caused by the wildly fluctuating prices of commodities such as fuel and fertilizer. Kganyago, in an interview at the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank Group spring meetings in Washington, said that the conflict would have a negative impact on growth and also increase inflation. In an environment in which you expect inflation to rise, I do not think that anyone can continue to talk about a relaxation in monetary policies in such an environment," he continued. Last month, the bank maintained its policy rate of 6.75% citing the need to be cautious due to the impact that higher energy prices will have on inflation. The bank revised its risk scenarios before the meeting to assess the impact of the Middle East crisis. The negative scenario assumed that oil would average $94 per barrel for the entire year, and that exchange rates would depreciate by 20%. "That was March. He said that we are now in a totally different environment. "We'll do new scenarios in may." The Middle East conflict and its?wild swings of commodity prices have largely halted the push for monetary easing among central banks in emerging markets. He said that South Africa did not face fuel shortages, and it would be a while before its farmers could feel the impact of a fertilizer shortage. Prices have changed in every direction...the only thing we know for sure is that there is uncertainty.
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Jalal Green shoots past Warriors to charge into the playoffs
Jalen's Green 36 points lifted the Phoenix Suns to the playoffs on Friday with a play-in victory of 111-96 over the Golden State Warriors. The Suns have earned the eighth seed in the Western Conference. On Sunday, they will host the top-seeded and defending Oklahoma City Thunder to begin a first round series. Jordan Ott, Phoenix coach, said: "Sometimes it's not the road you think it will be or the most traveled one. Sometimes it's just the road that is least traveled." "We found our path in, now we're on to the next thing." Phoenix scored 30 points on the Warriors' 21 mistakes. The Suns were able to hold on after Phoenix lost a late advantage against the Portland Trail Blazers during the play-in opening. The drama was not over yet. Golden State's Draymond green fouled out just over a minute after the final whistle. Warriors coach Steve Kerr embraced both Draymond Curry and Draymond green during a special moment. The three players were part of four NBA Championship runs. "I'm not sure what's going to occur." I love coaching, but I understand. Kerr's contract expires this summer. There's always a 'run' and, when it ends, there's often a need for fresh blood, new ideas, etc. If that's true, I'll be 'nothing' but grateful to have the opportunity to coach the franchise. Draymond green and Devin Booker, a Suns player, began a heated conversation as the game resumed. The discussion continued for a few moments before both players received a technical foul. Green was ejected. Phoenix opened up a huge lead after the Warriors scored their first two points. They then closed out the quarter with 8 consecutive points for a 33-15 lead. Golden State scored 15 points in the first quarter, their lowest total since March 7, when they scored 14 against the Thunder in the fourth. The Suns struggled in the second quarter after shooting 52.4% during the first. Golden State was within two points of Phoenix after Curry's free-throws, which he made with 19.6 seconds left in the first half. Jalen green elevated to shoot a 3-pointer on the wing as the clock ticked down. It was the Suns first field goal in over five minutes, giving Phoenix a lead of 50-45 at halftime. Brandin Podziemski, a Golden State player who leads the team with 23 points, scored 10 of them in the second. He led the Warriors in?10 rebounds. Jalen's two 3-pointers helped the Suns to gain control of the third quarter with an 11-1 run. Booker had 20 points, 8 assists and 6 rebounds. Jordan Goodwin, a Phoenix player, added 19 points and nine rebounds. Ott stated, "Truly this group has been a?special one all year. It was special again the last three or four days. They overcame the disappointment by?coming out to play that hard and against a team with every solution known." "... "... Curry scored 17 points, but he was only 4 of 16 on the floor. He also made just 3 of 10 3-pointers. De'Anthony Melton, who came off the bench to score 16 points with eight rebounds, also contributed. Field Level Media
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Australia relaxes fuel standards to boost supply
Chris Bowen, Australia's Energy Minister, said that the country would ease up on its standards for fuel quality until September. This is because of a deterioration in fuel supplies due to the war with Iran. Bowen made a televised statement: "I have decided to extend the period for higher sulphur in petrol in Australia." The relaxation announced in March increases the amount of allowed sulphur in fuel from the usual 10 parts to 50 parts. As the war, now in its eighth week, disrupted supply chain, Australia has seen localised shortages. Bowen?said that the production of diesel, jet-fuel and petrol at a Viva Energy oil refinery (VEA.AX), owned by Viva Energy in Victoria, Australia’s second most populous state, remained the same as Friday. He said that the Geelong refinery was still operating at 60% for petrol and 60% for diesel. Anthony Albanese, Australian Prime Minister, said that the fire would not trigger fuel restrictions. Albanese also secured a deal this week with Malaysian energy?firm Petronas for the supply of?excess fuel in?Australia following trips to Singapore, Brunei and other countries aimed at boosting energy supplies. (Reporting from Sam McKeith, Sydney; Editing done by William Mallard).
McGeever: ROI-Bond Blues hits Big Tech at worst possible time
The Middle East conflict and the resulting shock to energy supplies will cause a surge in market interest rates. The spike in borrowing costs couldn't have been worse for U.S. technology firms that plan to spend over $600 billion on artificial intelligence this year.
The AI capex surge is unprecedented. Big Tech's expected $630 billion capital?expenditure this year is more than 2% GDP. This includes AI data centers, chips, and cloud computing. More than $800 billion is projected to be spent next year, which is close to 3% GDP.
Big Tech has historically used cash to finance expansion. They still have plenty of cash: according to some estimates, the combined cash and equivalents held by the five biggest hyperscalers is over $350 billion. Apple and Microsoft's credit ratings are higher than the U.S. Government.
They're burning it through.
According to?Apollo Global Management, at the end of the last year, approximately 60% of hyperscalers operating cash flow was used for capex. This is now close to 70%. If this trend continues, it's possible that soon almost every dollar earned will be allocated to capex.
Morgan Stanley analysts say that Big Tech's capex for this year and the next will be $1.4 trillion. This is nearly 90% of the expected $1.6 trillion in operating cash flow.
The credit markets are becoming increasingly important to tech giants. Bank of America analysts predict that hyperscalers will issue debt this year in excess of $175 billion. This is up from $121 billion the previous year, and six times more than the average annual debt of $28 billion over the five preceding years.
The scale of borrowing is greater when you look at the entire sector. Analysts at MUFG estimate that investment-grade issuance from tech and AI firms last year totaled more than $245 billion. This is not far from the $298 billion accumulated over the past decade.
The BEAR Case
Last week, I outlined the bullish U.S. Tech narrative. This is based on the idea that hyperscalers will be able to weather the exogenous shock. Capital Economics reports that since the Iran War broke out, four weeks ago tech earnings have grown faster than any other industry, including energy.
Investors are sceptical that AI investments and borrowing will produce adequate returns. Roundhill's "Magnificent 7" exchange-traded funds fell 5% in the last week. This puts its monthly loss at around 10%, and its drop from October highs near 20%.
It is a cause for concern. Leverage used to finance AI will increase pressure on the balance sheets of hyperscalers, while at the same time every dollar of incremental profit will be harder to achieve. This pessimism is only going to grow if interest rates on the market continue to rise.
This is the biggest monthly increase since October 2024. If it increases by a few more basis points before March 31, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will be at its highest since October 2024.
The spread widening in the corporate bond market has been a relatively tame fifteen basis points over the same time period.
This could change. Big Tech could be hit by a double whammy: higher interest rates and increasing debt obligations, on one hand, and the prospect of squeezed profit margins and falling share prices on another.
The impact on the broader market and economy could be significant, considering how important these companies are for overall U.S. earnings.
It's hard to imagine how the economy can go into recession if the capex binge, one of the biggest collective investments in a single industry ever made, comes to fruition. If rising yields or falling share prices derail these plans, a perfect storm could occur with increased inflation, higher borrowing costs and a weakening hiring market.
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(source: Reuters)