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Bowman anticipates two additional interest rate reductions this year
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday that she still expects the U.S. Central bank to deliver rate cuts at its two final policy meetings in 2025. Bowman told an audience in Washington that he still expects two more rate cuts by the end of the year. Last month, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point. This was its first decrease in borrowing costs since December. The Fed's recent policy announcement showed that a small majority of policymakers believe more rate cuts are appropriate this year in light of the softening of the job market. The next meeting of the U.S. Central Bank will be held on October 28-29. Its final session for the year is scheduled for the second half of December. Rate futures markets positioning reflects expectations for quarter-percentage-point reductions at both meetings. Bowman stated, "I believe that as long as the labor market and the other economic data continue to evolve in the manner I expect them to, we will be on the path of lowering the Federal Funds Rate." Bowman supported the rate cut last month after dissension at the July meeting. In this dissent, she was joined by Fed Governor Christopher Waller who, like Bowman was appointed to the U.S. Central Bank's Board of Governors during President Donald Trump's first term as White House. Bowman and Waller both believe that Trump's tariffs, which he has implemented since regaining power, will not result in persistent inflation. They also say the risks are shifted to the job market.
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Analysts say that the EU's Ukraine financing plan could increase central bank gold purchases.
Analysts say that the European Commission's plan to use frozen Russian assets to provide financial assistance to Ukraine has shook some central banks. This could lead to a further increase in gold purchases to be stored outside of Western jurisdictions. The plan of the Commission would allow EU governments use up to 185 Billion Euros ($214 Billion) in Russian sovereign assets that are currently frozen in Europe, without confiscating them. This is a redline for many countries as well as the European Central Bank. China and other developing countries are diversifying their reserves from Western currencies, government debt and gold to avoid the sanctions that caused Russia's $300 billion in foreign currency reserves to be frozen. Ross Norman, a former bullion dealer and veteran gold analyst, said that the EU could mince words all they want. But it would not change reality. "The result is the same: Russia was denied access to their own money. The central banks around the globe are aware of this fact and acting accordingly. "And that is to acquire more gold." Since 2022, central banks will buy more than 1,000 tons of grain per year. Metals Focus, a consultancy, says that central banks have bought more gold than ever before, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons per year. This helped to push gold prices up to record highs of over $4,000 per ounce in this month. Metals Focus predicts that 900 net tons will be purchased in the coming year. A report by the ECB in June showed that gold will surpass the euro in 2024 as the second largest reserve asset after the U.S. Dollar, due to stronger purchasing and the price increase of bullion. Central banks' gold holdings are now worth more than U.S. Treasury Bonds. China, which has not publicly stated its reasons for purchasing gold, has been increasing its gold reserves for the past 11 months. Poland also bought gold, but with a different motive, as the war in Ukraine was a threat to its economy. The appeal of gold for central banks is a result of the fact that it is not a liability or debt of anyone. He said that if the EU taps frozen Russian assets to provide financial assistance to Ukraine, central bank purchases of gold will "very likely" accelerate. COUNTRIES REPATRIATING OLD GOLD RESERVES The measures taken against Russia have also led to an increase in countries repatriating their gold reserves from Western hubs. 68% of respondents of a survey by Invesco in 2023 kept gold reserves at home, compared with 50% in 2020. "The EU is only able to use the frozen Russian assets if it has access, i.e. They are stored/booked at banks outside of Russia," Carsten Menke, an analyst with Julius Baer. Menke stated that emerging market central banks may choose to store assets in their own country. In Germany, President Donald Trump’s trade disputes with allies and his criticisms of the Federal Reserve have revived calls for gold return this year. The Bundesbank said that the New York Fed is a reliable partner for gold storage.
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India claims that the Indian-backed oil refinery should start operations in Mongolia in 2028.
India's Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that an Indian-backed refinery in Mongolia will begin operating in 2028. The Mongolian authorities want Indian companies to also explore for oil and natural gas in the country. The announcement came during the visit of Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa to India. Mongolia's first refinery will be built using a $1.7 billion Indian credit line. It has the capacity to process 1,5 million metric tonnes of crude oil per year, or 30,000 barrels a day. P. Kumaran is a senior official in the Indian Foreign Ministry. He said that refinery equipment will be manufactured in India, and shipped to Mongolia. It seems to be moving forward. He told reporters that he expected the refinery to be operational by 2028. Kumaran, a Kumaran from India, said that the country is looking to import coal as well. It is a landlocked country sandwiched between Russia and China. Russia and Mongolia offer a discount for Mongolian goods that transit through Russia's railway and ports, Kumaran said. "We're also trying to find out more to see if there is a discount available between Mongolian and Russian," Kumaran added. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis, Alexandra Hudson; Surbhi Mitra in New Delhi)
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Sources say ADNOC will win Covestro $17 billion deal with remedies tweaks.
Sources with direct knowledge said that the EU is likely to approve ADNOC's 14.7 billion euro ($17 billion) offer for German chemicals firm Covestro. EU regulators are expected to tweak remedies offered earlier in the month. The European Commission is investigating the deal - ADNOC’s largest acquisition to date and one of the biggest foreign takeovers by a Gulf State of a EU company - over concerns that ADNOC could be using state subsidies for the acquisition of the chemicals company. Last week, the EU regulator asked for feedback from competitors and third parties after ADNOC offered a change to its articles of Association to address EU concerns regarding the unlimited state guarantees. The company also committed to retaining Covestro's Intellectual Property in Europe. Sources said that the Commission will likely demand minor changes in the remedies before approving the deal. These types of demands are common after third-party feedback. The Commission declined comment. ADNOC reiterated its previous comments that it would offer a package robust and proportionate of remedies to the Commission, and was confident that this would result in the timely clearance of the transaction. Separately the Commission will resume its investigation into the deal after temporarily stopping the process last week while ADNOC provided requested information. ADNOC responded to all requests for information since then, according to another source. Reporting by FooYun Chee. (Editing by Barbara Lewis, Mark Potter and Foo Yun Chee)
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LMEWEEK - China's CNMC is planning to stockpile rare and precious metals
China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group's Vice General Manager said that the group is preparing three stockpiles containing precious and rare metals as well as "scattered" or low-concentration metals in Earth's crust. Fan Wei, vice-general manager of the state-owned mining company, said, "We plan to do that." He spoke on the sidelines the China Nonferrous Metals Forum as part of the annual LME Week in London. Fan, in his presentation at the forum, said that CNMC would prioritise the development of 14 different types of metals including tantalum and niobium as well as platinum group metals such beryllium and indium. He did not provide any details on the location or capacity of the stockpiles. Fan's comments coincide with a time of intense competition for rare earth minerals, which are used in consumer electronics and defence products. Also, new Chinese export restrictions on rare Earths have caused trade tensions between the United States and China. China is the world's largest producer of rare-earth metals. Fan added that CNMC would build recycling plants for the metals. CNMC also has assets outside of China in Africa. These include mines in Zambia and Democratic Republic of Congo. (Reporting and editing by Tom Daly, Amy Lv, and Jan Harvey).
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IMF raises Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4% due to rising oil production
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its economic growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia in 2025 on Tuesday, due to an earlier than expected unwinding of production cuts. The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook raised its forecast of Saudi Arabia's growth to 4% in 2025 from the 3% projected in April. The growth rate for 2026 has also been revised up to 4%. The IMF stated that the IMF expected the growth of the Middle East and Central Asia to be boosted by the acceleration of growth in oil and gas exporters in the Gulf States, as the effects of disruptions in oil production and shipping and the impact of ongoing conflict dissipated. The regional GDP is now projected to grow by 3.5% in 2025. This compares with the 3% predicted in April and an increase of 2.6% from last year. In 2026, GDP is expected to grow by 3.8%. The IMF stated that "this reflects largely the developments in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, notably Saudi Arabia where the unwinding in oil production was faster than anticipated, and Egypt where the outcome in the first half 2025 was better. Saudi Arabia is the top crude oil exporter in the world. It has a massive economic transformation plan called Vision 2030. The goal of the plan is to diversify the revenue sources and move away from hydrocarbons, while increasing non-oil growth. The country is investing heavily in tourism, manufacturing and advanced technology. Voluntary oil production cuts, combined with lower oil prices, have resulted in a decline in revenues and a widening of fiscal deficits. Some projects have also been scaled back. In a statement on the pre-budget last month, the Finance Ministry said that non-oil growth outperformed the overall real GDP growth in the first half 2025 of 3.6%. Non-oil growth was up 4.8% during the same period and contributed over 55% of the total GDP. (Reporting and editing by Rachna uppal)
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GM will take a $1.6 billion charge when tax credits are blown, muddying EV plans
General Motors announced on Tuesday that it will take a $1.6billion charge in the third-quarter as it reshapes the electric vehicle strategy after the federal incentive was scrapped, which is expected to reduce demand. GM's disclosure was one of the most clear indications that U.S. carmakers are scrambling in order to adjust their production plans to respond to a slowing EV market. Auto executives have warned of a sudden drop in battery car sales, which will eventually rebound, after the Trump Administration scrapped a federal tax credit of $7,500 for electric vehicles. The adoption rate of EVs is expected to slow down. In a filing GM stated that it expects the "adoption rate of EVs" to slow down following recent policy changes. These include the termination of some consumer tax incentives, and a softer approach on emissions rules. In a press release, GM said that the charge was a "special item" because it expected EV volumes to be lower than anticipated due to market conditions and a changed regulatory and policy climate. The automakers are also trying to mitigate the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. These forced GM, for example, to suffer a $1.1billion hit. previous quarter The company estimated that trade headwinds would have a negative impact on its bottom line of between $4 and $5 billion in this year. It said it could offset the blow by at least 30%. In premarket trading, shares of the Detroit-based automaker fell 2.5%. The stock has risen by about 4.5% this year. Garrett Nelson, a CFRA Research senior equity analyst, said that the charge is not surprising given the recent market development and the fact that GM has made the most aggressive EV push among traditional automakers. We believe that the U.S. market will benefit from automakers like Toyota and Honda who have invested more in hybrid vehicle technology. GM and Ford, its crosstown competitor, had both launched a program which would have allowed dealers the opportunity to offer a $7.500 tax credit for EV leases once the federal subsidy ended, but then backed out of those plans. The automaker warned that it could impose additional charges after reassessing its manufacturing footprint and capacity. GM's existing portfolio of Chevrolet, GMC, and Cadillac EVs will not be affected by the changes. Charges include a $1.2 billion non-cash impairment tied to EV capacity adjustments and $400 million for contract-cancellation fees and commercial settlements. The charges will be included in the non-GAAP third quarter results, which are scheduled to be released early next week. Reporting by Utkarsh Shitti and Shivansh Twary from Bengaluru, Editing by Tasim Zaid
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The Pakistan Finance Minister sees a staff agreement on the $1.2 billion IMF payment this week
The Pakistani finance minister announced that the country is set to sign an agreement on the review of its loan program with the International Monetary Fund in the coming week. This will pave the path for a further $1.24 billion payment from the lender. The IMF delegation left Pakistan last weekend without signing the so-called staff-level agreement for the second review of its $7 billion Extended Fund Facility and first one for the $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility, which was agreed upon in 2024 as a way to stabilize the economy following a severe financial crises. Muhammad Aurangzeb said in an interview conducted on the sidelines the IMF World Bank Annual Meeting that the mission had been on the ground for two weeks. We had a very constructive discussion with them about the quantitative benchmarks and the structural benchmarks. And we have also been having follow-up conversations. We hope to complete the SLA this week. The IMF's lending programme requires that countries undergo regular reviews. Once approved by the Fund executive board, the next tranche will be paid. The IMF program agreed in September 2024 helped stabilize Pakistan's then cash-strapped $370 billion economy, which was engulfed by an economic crisis. Inflation had reached record highs and the currency was rapidly depreciating. Aurangzeb predicted that the government would issue a green Panda Bond - the first bond denominated by Chinese yuan in Pakistan - before the end of the year and return to the international markets with a bond sales of at least one billion dollars next year, although details had yet to be determined. He said: "We're keeping all our options open, whether it is dollar, euro, Sukuk or Islam Sukuk." After disappointing results in last year's fiscal year, the privatisation drive - part of the long-delayed sales of state assets as part of an economic reform agenda and fiscal stabilisation - was expected gain momentum this year. He said, "This is a very important part of our economic road map." Pakistan has also made progress in the sale of Pakistan International Airlines, a national airline and three power distribution companies. Aurangzeb stated that he was "quite hopeful" about the prospects of qualified bidders to bid for PIA, citing lucrative routes into Europe and Britain, which "made it a very good proposition for investors." This would be the first major privatization for about 20 years. The government's previous attempt to privatize the country last year failed after only one lowball bid was received. However, five business groups have expressed interest in the deal, including Airblue and Lucky Cement as well as investment firm Arif Habib, and military-backed Fauji Fertilizer. The final bids will be announced later this year. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton: Karin Strohecker)
Polish defense industry could help JSW coal miner, says PM Tusk
The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on Tuesday that Poland's defence sector may play a part in restructuring the state-controlled coal firm JSW, which is struggling.
Tusk stated that his government will soon present a new plan for JSW.
The European Union’s largest coking coal producer, used in the production of steel, is preparing a restructuring plan which may include wage cuts. This will help to deal with rising energy prices, falling coal costs and low-cost imports of steel.
Tusk said at a press briefing that "we will do everything we can to transform JSW, and save this company or at least an important part of it." "This plan includes co-financing of voluntary redundancies."
Poland has invested heavily in its military and defence industry since the Russian invasion of Ukraine's neighbour in February 2022.
Tusk stated that JSW could benefit from these efforts, as the region of south-western Silesia is traditionally dominated by mining, steelmaking, and heavy machinery production.
He said: "I don't rule out the possibility that the Polish Armaments Group, the Polish Defence Industry, will be able, in this case, to play a role, even in the case JSW, if only in part, in its activities." (Reporting by Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk, Pawel Florkiewicz and Marek Strzelecki; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
(source: Reuters)