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What you should know about the upcoming Norwegian elections
The general elections in Norway on September 8 and 9 are expected to be close between the centre-left block led by the Labour Party and the centre-right group dominated by the Progress Party. Inequality and taxation are two of the key issues that will determine the outcome. The result could also have an impact on the energy and power supply to Europe, and the management and control of Norway's massive sovereign fund. What's at stake? Labour, led by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere, is seeking to extend its reign after returning to government in 2021. This follows eight years of Conservative governments. Labour led a minor government supported by the Socialist Left Party and the rural Centre Party. According to a Respons Analyse survey conducted for the daily Aftenposten between August 7-13, inequality is top of voters' concerns. Defence and national security have dropped to sixth place from a similar survey in April. The campaign has been dominated by cost of living issues and budgetary concerns, with the inflation rate in food prices at 5.9% over the past 12 months. According to the survey, voters also prioritized taxes, jobs, and the economy. Labour's allies, however, want to raise taxes on the wealthy in order to fund tax cuts for families with low incomes and expand public services. Both Progress and Conservatives advocate for large tax reductions. SOVEREIGN FUND Norway’s wealth fund of $2 trillion, built from oil and gas revenues, allows the government to spend more freely than other European countries. However, inflation and interest rate control are factors that limit spending. The debate about investments in Israel was at the forefront of the campaign and sparked a public discussion on how the world's biggest sovereign fund works. Last week, the Socialist Left said that it would support a Labour government only if they divested from companies involved in "Israel's illegal war in Gaza". Labour rejected this demand but it could be hard to reject such demands after the election. OIL AND GAS Norway has replaced Gazprom as Europe's largest gas supplier after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Norway's importance is expected to increase as the European Union plans on phase-out Russian gas use by 2027. However, exploitation of new oil and gas resources is crucial to slowing production down. The influence of the Greens, Liberals, and other smaller parties could determine whether Norway opens up new areas for oil exploration or if it restricts them to the existing ones. It is unlikely that radical proposals such as stopping exploration altogether will receive enough support. Norway exports its surplus power to Europe. Some left-wing and rights-wing parties continue to campaign on the issue of limiting exports. This would cause problems for both the neighbours of Norway and Brussels. Norway may not be a member of the EU, but it is a part of the Single European Market and must follow its rules. Restriction of power exports would be a breach. The parties are divided on how to meet the growing domestic demand, which is eroding Norway’s surplus. In recent years, little new generation capacity has been added. The cost of wind on land, solar, and new hydropower is relatively low, and the construction process is quick. However, there are local protests about their environmental impact. Due to its high cost, offshore wind is controversial. HOW DOES IT OPERATE? Norway uses a proportional system where 169 legislators are elected for a four-year fixed term from 19 geographic districts. A party that receives more than 4% of the vote nationwide will be guaranteed representation. However, a strong showing within a district can also result in one or several seats. A majority of 85 seats is not expected by any party, so the most likely outcome will be a continuation of minority rule under Labour. Nine parties are predicted to gain seats, according to polls. On the left are Labour, the Socialists and the Greens. Labour's Stoere will remain in power if the centre-left party wins. If it is centre-right, either Progress Party leader Sylvi Listehaug, or Conservative Party chief Erna Solberg, could become Prime Minister. Results are expected to be known by the end of the ballot on 8 September at 1900 GMT. The results could be revealed late in the evening. However, the final result may not be known for several days. Negotiations after the election will determine which parties form the cabinet.
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Investors are worried that Trump's Intel deal will kick off an era of US Industrial Policy
Investors are worried that the U.S. Government's new stake is Intel heralds a new era of government interference in private industries, especially since the deal was made after President Donald Trump called for the resignation the CEO of the computer chip manufacturer. The deal announced on Friday converts government grants, including the Chips Act, worth $11.1 billion into a 9.9% stake in Intel. In the press release that announced the deal, the company included statements by the CEOs from Microsoft, Dell and others praising it. Investors noted that this level of transparency is not typically associated with business-Washington relations. Trump said on Twitter that Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan wanted to stay in his job, and "ended giving us $10 billion dollars for the United States." James McRitchie is a shareholder activist and private investor in California, who owns Intel stock. He said that the threat to the CEO sets a precedent. He said that the statement effectively sent the message "we love Trump and we don't wish to lose 10% of our company." Intel shares closed at $24.56 in August 15th, the last trading day prior to Trump's announcement. On August 6, Intel shares closed at 20.41. Intel's Tuesday closing price was $24.35 down 1%. According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the deal does not grant the U.S. Commerce Department any board seats. Commerce is required to support the board's nominees and proposals for directors. Commerce, however, can vote on other issues "as they wish". Fitch Ratings stated that the deal did not improve Intel’s BBB credit score, which is just above junk status. Fitch Ratings said that while the deal provides more liquidity it doesn't fundamentally improve demand for Intel chip, they stated in a research report on Tuesday. Reduced Voting Rights Intel's filing states that the deal could also subject the company to new regulations or restrictions outside the United States. Tan also said that Intel didn't need the money. SoftBank invested $2 billion in the chipmaker just three days before Trump's announcement. The White House's latest intervention was in a private company, after a military deal announced in July for a mining stake and the influence it had over U.S. Steel in connection with its acquisition by Japan's Nippon Steel. U.S. Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated on Tuesday that the Trump administration could take stakes in defence contractors. The U.S. move could be seen by some European and Asian governments as business as usual, as they already own large chunks of companies. Lower Saxony, a German state, owns 20% of Volkswagen. Richard Hardegree is vice chairman of UBS' technology investment banking. He said that the Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese, Singaporean, and Malaysian governments have been doing this for many years. "In France and Italy, there have been massive industrial policies around the semiconductor industry for the past 40-50 years ever since people realized the importance of the semiconductor." Washington took temporary equity positions in several vital companies during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, but these arrangements were only temporary. Washington's unprecedented move to pressure otherwise healthy companies into long-term ownership stakes has alarmingly alarmed investors. BLURRED LINES Rich Weiss said that future federal investments will need "regulations and guidelines" to limit abuses like insider trading. He said that if government investments were not checked, the trading of these companies would be more risky for investors. Investors and representatives have cited similar risks, such as when boards balance competing interests in decisions like where to locate a plant, whether or not to layoff workers, or the degree to which they push into overseas markets. Robert McCormick said that company and national goals can easily clash on these matters. The Council of Institutional Investors includes state pension funds, among other large shareholders. He said that a government stake in a private company could create a conflict between the interests of the company and the nation. Kristin Hull is the chief investment officer at California-based activist Nia Impact Capital. She said that she had "more doubts than confidence" regarding the equity stake. Nia owns stakes in Advanced Micro Devices, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. It also manages Intel shares for its clients. Hull stated in an interview that "I believe the lines between the government and the private sector are blurred here." A representative of Intel said that the board of directors approved the deal for the issue of shares. The representative declined to comment further. When asked about concerns over insider trading, the representative quoted a press release that stated the U.S. Government would not have any board representation and "other governance rights or information rights." Microsoft's representative declined to comment. Dell representatives did not answer any questions. A large institutional investor who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the situation said that the deal would protect Intel against pressure from activist investors. The person warned that the U.S. Government could take a worrying step towards state capitalism if it continues to invest in other companies. "Seening it once for a firm like this doesn't raise any red flags. It raises an eyebrow. If this tool becomes more common, we will have to examine why it is used and why capital markets don't provide financing", the investor stated. (Reporting from Boston by Ross Kerber and Dawn Kopecki. Dawn Kopecki, David Gregorio and Dawn Kopecki edited the article.
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Vote on structural changes by the Depleted Bank Climate Coalition
After the departure of several of its most prominent members, the main banking group that leads the sector's global efforts to reduce carbon emissions announced on Wednesday its plans to revamp its structure. The Net-Zero Banking Alliance was formed in 2021, ahead of the global climate talks to be held in Glasgow. It has proposed that it change from a membership-based alliance to a framework initiative. As part of the membership obligations, members have been required to commit to achieving net-zero emission by 2050. They also set interim targets for reducing emissions in carbon-intensive industries by 2030 and submit annual progress reports. By the end of September, members will vote on any proposed changes to the status of the alliance. After pressure from Republican politicians in the United States who claimed that membership could be considered a violation of antitrust laws, many large banks left. UBS, a Swiss bank, was the last to leave the group in early August. It followed UK counterparts Barclays, HSBC, and the biggest U.S. Canadian, Australian, and Japanese banks. The NZBA stated on its website that its steering group believes the proposed model is the best way to support banks in remaining resilient and accelerating "the real-economy transition" to align with the 2015 Paris Agreement. The statement said that it would "allow continued engagement with the global banking sector to develop further tools and guidance needed to support both them and their customers". Lucie Pinson of the non-profit Reclaim Finance said that the NZBA could avoid "the embarrassment" of losing its relevance as the largest members withdraw gradually. She said: "For those who are working to protect the planet and the climate, it highlights once again the limitations of voluntary corporate engagements and the urgency of binding measures, such as strong regulatory actions, to trigger true change." (Reporting and editing by Tommy Reggiori Wilkes, Barbara Lewis, and Simon Jessop)
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Heavy rains in the Himalayas cause havoc across India and Pakistan
In the last 24 hours, heavy rains swept through the Himalayas killing 36 people and forcing the authorities to open dams. This triggered flood alerts in Pakistan on three rivers. Officials said that the landslide near the Hindu mountain shrine Vaishno Dev on a pilgrimage route in India's federal Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, Tuesday afternoon, was the single deadliest disaster. Authorities added that three more people were killed as floodwaters flooded low-lying parts of the district of Doda after the river banks burst. Local media reported that about 200 children were left stranded after flood waters engulfed an entire school building in Punjab, a northern state. Video images show that vehicles tumbled from the Madhopur barrage when it was weakened by the heavy rains overnight and into the morning of Wednesday. No immediate reports have been made of any casualties. Several highways connecting Jammu with the rest of India have also been damaged. Omar Abdullah said that officials were working to restore the "almost nonexistent" services of telecommunications in Jammu and Kashmir. "We had 612 mm rainfall in Jammu region since Aug. 23 till today. This is 726% more than normal rainfall for this time of year in the region. Mukhtar Ahmed, Director of the India Meteorological Department, Srinagar said that it was the most rainfall the region has seen since 1950. On Wednesday, there were forecasts of more rain in Ladakh and gusty winds with thunderstorms. Heavy rain was also predicted for Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir. Authorities said that although some water levels had started to drop on Wednesday, many rivers still remained at dangerously high levels. In a recent post on X, Jitendra Singh (India's Science and Technology Minister) said that the immediate priority was to restore electricity, water and mobile services. The authorities had been working non-stop overnight. DAMS OPEN Unidentified rescue officials said that flood waters engulfed Kartarpur Sahib in Pakistan, a famous Sikh Temple. In recent weeks, Pakistan also experienced monsoon rainfall, with 167,000 people being displaced from Punjab. This includes 40,000 people who voluntarily left after flood warnings were issued since August 14. On Wednesday, the official death toll in Pakistan from the floods that have occurred since the beginning of the monsoon in late June was 804, with half of those deaths occurring in August. A source in the Indian government said that India had opened the gates to major dams along rivers in its portion of Kashmir following the heavy rains. Pakistan has received an alert from India regarding flooding in the downstream. It also issued its own warning for three rivers that flow into its territory. India releases excess water from its dams whenever they are too full. The excess flows into Pakistan. Authorities in Pakistan reported a record-breaking rise in the level of the rivers Ravi, Chenab, and Sutlej on Wednesday. Pakistan claims that New Delhi has ignored two flood warnings issued by Pakistan since Sunday. Reporting by FayazBukhari, Krishna Das, AsifShahzad, MubasherBukhari, and Tanvi Mehta in Srinagar; writing by Andrew Heavens; editing by Andrew Heavens
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Freeport Indonesia will complete repairs at Gresik by early September
A spokesperson for PT Freeport Indonesia said that the company expects its East Java joint venture smelter to be repaired by early September. The company reported that repairs at an oxygen facility delayed the startup of Gresik, a joint-venture between Freeport Indonesia, Japan's Mitsubishi Materials Corp and Freeport Indonesia. This smelter has been under maintenance for the last month. Katri Krisnati said that the repairs to the oxygen plant of PT Smelting will be completed in September 2025. She did not elaborate. The annual production capacity is 342,000 metric tonnes of copper cathode. This plant takes approximately 40% of Freeport’s copper concentrate from its Grasberg Mine. Freeport began copper cathode manufacturing at its Manyar copper smelter by July. Freeport was granted a permit by Indonesia to continue exports until September 16, 2023. By mid-August it had already exported 65% of the 1.27 million ton quota. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Fransiska Naangoy)
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Gold prices fall on stronger dollar and profit-taking
The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, and investors took profits after the gold price peaked in the previous session. As of 0811 GMT, spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,382.31 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery eased by 0.1% to $3430.80. Dollar-priced gold is now more expensive to other currency holders, as the dollar index has risen by 0.4%. The dollar is determining the direction in which gold prices will move. The current gold price decline is probably due to profit-taking following gold's (two-week high) as the momentum to the upside faded," said independent analyst Ross Norman. Bullion reached its highest level in August on Tuesday, after U.S. president Donald Trump's attempted to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook undermined the confidence in the independence and U.S. assets more generally. This boosted safe-haven demands. Fed Governor Cook's lawyer announced on Tuesday that she will sue to stop Trump from dismissing her. This could lead to a long-running legal battle over White House efforts to influence U.S. financial policy. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: "I think market participants will wait for the U.S. court decision (on whether or not) Trump can fire Cook before gold reacts even more strongly." The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, is due Friday. This will provide a clue as to whether the Fed intends to cut rates following the dovish comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week at the Jackson Hole Symposium. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the markets have priced in a 87% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point at its policy meeting on September 17. Gold that does not yield is usually a good investment in an environment with low interest rates. Silver fell 0.6%, to 38.37 cents per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.7%, to 1,339.52, and palladium slipped 0.1%, to $1092.93. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Barbara Lewis)
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China Baosteel’s net profit for the first half of 2018 increases 7.4%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China's largest listed steelmaker reported a 7.4% increase in net profit for the first half of its fiscal year, despite a soft domestic market. However, it warned that protectionist pressures would continue in the months to come. According to a filing with the Shanghai Stock Exchange by the company known as Baosteel it made about 4,88 billion yuan (682 million dollars) in the first six months of this year. This is up from the 4.55 billion earned during the same period in 2024. Baosteel reported that the steel industry struggled with a sluggish first-half demand, despite a contraction in supply. The report added that "the export business will be under pressure during the remainder of the year due to the rise in trade protectionism and anti-dumping duty in Southeast Asia." The dramatic drop in raw material prices has led to an increase in profitability among Chinese steelmills this year. Baosteel reported that the price of iron ore dropped 14.4% from January to June. The price of coking coal fell 41.1%, and the steel price declined 13.5%. Baosteel is a subsidiary owned by the China Baowu Steel Group. It is the largest steel producer in the world. From January to June, Baosteel produced 23,71 million metric tonnes of iron and 25,73 million tons steel. The first half of the year saw an increase in export orders by 9.4% compared to the previous year, reaching 3.32 million tonnes. (1 dollar = 7.1529 Chinese yuan). (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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India's steelmakers are seeking a near-sevenfold increase in met coke import quota due to a supply shortage
Sources and a government report claim that Indian steel producers are calling on the government for a sharp increase in import quotas of low-ash metallic coke. They want a nearly sevenfold increase, citing a severe shortage. India, the second largest crude steel producer in the world, extended in June import restrictions on low-ash metalurgical coke (a raw material for steelmaking) for six months, starting in July. New Delhi has also imposed country-specific import limits and set a limit of 1.4 million metric tonnes for the period July 1 through December 31. Sources familiar with the matter said that steelmakers have asked Prime Minister Narendra Modi to increase the import quota from 9.3 million tonns. The majority of these additional shipments are sought to come from Indonesia. Senior officials prepared a document that was reviewed by the steelmakers. According to the document, steel firms in Indonesia have requested imports of 2.6 million metric tonnes, which is far more than the current government allocation of 66.364 metrictons. One source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the deliberations weren't public, said that the rapid capacity expansion of steel companies had strained the availability of met coke. Sources claim that many steel executives have informed the government of the insufficiency of domestic met coke production to meet the demand. The Federal Ministry of Commerce and Industry has not responded to an email seeking comment. Steelmakers like JSW Steel, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India and ArcelorMittal have expressed concern over the import restrictions. They claim that the restrictions hinder their expansion plans because it is difficult to source preferred grades locally. JSW, India’s largest steelmaker based on capacity, requested a larger allocation of metcoke from federal trade officials at the end of last month, as reported previously. In the last four years, imports of low-ash coke from China, Japan Indonesia, Poland and Switzerland have doubled. Piyush Goyal urged Indian steelmakers earlier this year to source metcoke locally. As reported previously, the federal Ministry of Steel also supports the import restrictions. It says that local supplies of metcoke are enough to meet demand. Reporting by Neha Bhardwaj, Editing by Mayank Bhhardwaj, and Peter Graff
Instant View- Trump's tariffs against India are now in effect
The U.S. President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods to up to 50% as planned on Wednesday. This escalated tensions between the two world's largest democracies.
COMMENTARY:
MADHAVI ARORA CHIEF ECONOMIST, EMKAY GLOBAL
"While tariffs may add a downside tail risk to forecasts, it's too early to think about actual forecast changes."
The impending global trade reset will not be easy, even though we are closely watching the results of the ongoing China-U.S. negotiations.
The RBI and other EM central bankers may follow the U.S. Fed in the future, but will also have to deal with risk-aversion noise through financial market channels.
UPASNA BHARDWAJ, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK:
The onset of tariffs of 50% along with exemptions suggest an effective tariff of around 31%. We would see major disruptions in labour-intensive sectors such as gems, jewellery, textiles, etc. if these rates continued to rise throughout the year without any agreement.
The high share of exports from micro, small and mid-sized enterprises is likely to further cloud the outlook for consumption and demand. Tariff increases could have a $25-50 billion impact on annualised GDP depending on their scale.
We see a 20-30 bp risk of a downward revision to our current GDP estimation of 6.2%.
TERESA JOHAN, LEAD ECONOMIST NIRMAL BANK INSITUTIONAL EQUITIES
We estimate that the impact on GDP will be about 36 billion dollars or 0.9% annually.
We believe that India is under increasing pressure to reach a deal as soon as possible, because the impact of a delay on the economy and the growth of labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewelry is significant. Already there are reports of plant closures and dumping on the domestic market.
"India may be willing to buy more U.S. weapons and oil, and reduce tariffs on some imports. However, agricultural products such as soybeans and dairy are still sensitive."
RADHIKA RAO SENIOR ECONOMIST DBS BANK
The impact of the second 25% duty, which will take effect on Wednesday, is asymmetrical.
The central bank will be on alert for signs of growth risks, as well as possible relief in credit and liquidity.
"Meanwhile other counterefforts will be crucial, such as seeking alternative markets and strengthening trade and investments ties via multilateral trade agreements as well as bilateral ones.
The door to negotiations could reopen in the second half of the year, depending on other geopolitical events.
RAJESWARI SENGUPTA ASSOCIATE Professor, INDIRA GANDHI INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH
"The government needs to adopt a less protectionist, more trade-oriented strategy in order to increase the demand which is currently slack.
To encourage trade and foreign direct investment, it could be beneficial to sign free trade agreements or regional agreements with several countries. Tariffs and other non-trade barriers can also be reduced.
AASTHA GUDWANI IS THE INDIA CHIEF ECONOMIST AT BARCLAYS
"We estimate that 70% ($55 billion), of India's imports from the United States, are under threat. This increases downside risks for growth.
It has come a very long way from being a "good friend" to a "bad trading partner".
SUJAN HAJRA, CHIEF ECONOMIST AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE ANAND RATHI GROUP
"Washington’s 50% tariff is an annoyance, but not a major blow." India's trade surplus could increase by 0.5%, the growth rate could drop by half a point, and the rupee might weaken.
Up to 2 million jobs could be at risk in near future. The bigger picture, however, is not as gloomy. India's export base, corporate earnings, and inflation outlook are all intact. And domestic demand is strong enough to cushion any blow.
AAKANKSHA SHRAWAN ASSISTANTPROFESSOR, NATIONAL INSITUTE OF PUBLIC FINANCE and POLICY
"The government must broaden its horizons, and take the right steps to position itself so that it can capitalize on India's most neglected component: services.
"There is an urgent need for a re-examination of the government initiatives that are aimed at promoting India's service imports (Service Export from India Scheme; Software Technology Park Scheme; Digital India Internship Scheme); and governing bodies, such as Service Export Promotion Council (MEITY) and Service Export Promotion Council (SEPC)." Reporting by Tanvi, Kashish, and Nikunj Ahri. Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman. Clarence Fernandez, and Lincoln Feast.
(source: Reuters)