Latest News

After DeepSeek's defeat, Europe's AI bulls are pinning their hopes on the 'Jevons Paradox.

Artificial intelligence bulls are dusting off an old economic theory that dates back 160 years to explain why stocks in the sector may still have more to offer, despite China's new cheap AI model DeepSeek.

The tech stocks fell on January 27th after DeepSeek was launched. DeepSeek, which costs a fraction of the rival AI models but requires less sophisticated chips and is cheaper than the other AI models, raised concerns about the West's massive investments in data centres and chipmakers.

The biggest one-day decline in market capitalisation of any company in history was caused by the U.S. advanced chips maker and AI poster child Nvidia. It lost 17% of its worth, or nearly $600 billion.

Since then, the tech stocks have recovered, European markets are at new highs and an economic theory from 19th century is now on everyone's tongue: The Jevons Paradox.

The Jevons Effect is named after English economist William Stanley Jevons. It posits the idea that as a resource's price drops, the demand for it can actually increase.

Helen Jewell is the Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock Fundamental Equities EMEA. She said, "I had not discussed it until last Monday, and suddenly, it was everywhere."

Jewell said that "this paradox highlights one of the current uncertainties" and that European stock pickers should be asking themselves whether the demand for data centres will decrease.

How much energy will be required for the AI revolution? This was one of the biggest questions raised in the news (last) monday.

The selloff affected both direct and indirect AI players. ASML (Dutch semiconductor equipment maker), ASMI, BE Semi, and ASMI, sector peers, all fell between 7% and 12% on January 27 before recovering losses later that week. Siemens Energy, which supplies hardware for AI infrastructure, also recovered its losses.

"Jevons Paradox strikes once again!" Microsoft's chief executive Satya Nadella wrote in a blog post on X.

As AI becomes more accessible and efficient, its use will skyrocket. It will become a commodity that we can't have enough of.

THE NEW BUZZWORD

Tomasz Godziek said on Friday that lower AI costs may be an example of the Jevons Paradox. He is the portfolio manager for the Tech Disruptors Fund at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management.

Godziek stated that "ultimately, this could spark a new wave in AI investment and create fresh opportunities in particular in software and inference technology."

Thematics Asset Management (an affiliate of Natixis IM) portfolio managers cite the Jevons Paradox among other reasons why they think demand for AI chips will remain strong.

Mark Hawtin of Liontrust's global equity team said that the news from Jan. 27 highlighting the paradox reinforced his investment thesis.

Kunal Kothari is the portfolio manager at Aviva Investors, and he manages an equity income fund in the UK with assets of around 2 billion pounds ($2.5billion).

The GenAI's improved productivity will benefit UK companies as they are the main consumers of this technology. He pointed to names such as RELX and LSEG as well as Experian, Sage and Experian as likely beneficiaries.

DATA CENTRE NEEDS IN FOCUS

Data centres and the enormous power needed to run them have already driven AI investments in Europe, as there are no homegrown competitors to Nvidia whose share price has soared by 200% in less than two years.

Kasper Elmgreen is the CIO for fixed income and equity at Nordea Asset Management. He said: "There's an implicit assumption about AI adoption and usage requiring more and more chips and data centres, as well as more power consumption."

DeepSeek has questioned what's required of that route, and what can be achieved by creating much better software.

Jordan Rochester, the head of FICC Strategy at Mizuho EMEA, is not convinced by this new rationale.

He wrote that "while many Nvidia Optimists pointed out the Jevons Paradox as a way to sleep better at nights, it was less convincing over the short-term after what had been a meteoric increase in Nvidia's shares."

(source: Reuters)