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Indonesia concludes search for victims after boarding school collapse. 61 dead
Indonesian rescuers finished their search for victims under the rubble in East Java province on Tuesday after recovering more than 60 corpses, according to disaster authorities. Last week, the small town Sidoarjo was engulfed in grief and confusion after the Al Khoziny School collapsed on hundreds of people - mostly teenagers - while they were praying. Most escaped. In a statement the disaster mitigation agency announced that all 61 bodies in the building had been located, along with seven body parts police are trying identify. The search was halted for the worst disaster of the year, which it called. Mohammad Syafii is the chief of the Search and Rescue Agency. After authorities removed the debris, he said, "Operations due the collapsed structure at the Al Khoziny School... are now officially closed." Budi Irawan is the deputy chief of the agency. The rescuers used cranes and excavators to lift huge chunks of concrete. As they dug through the tunnels, rescuers shouted names of those presumed still alive. Al Khoziny, also known as a pesantren in Arabic, is one of over 42,000 schools of this type across the country. Only 50 have building permits, according to the Public Works Ministry. It was impossible to determine if Al Khoziny possessed a permit or contact school authorities. Media reported that Sidoarjo Chief Subandi said last week the school allegedly did not have a permit. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Stanley Widianto)
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Morning bid Europe-Deepening darkness in Paris
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. France is once again in a deep political crisis, with five different prime ministers having been in office in just 21 months. This is not good news for investors looking to invest in Paris. The markets will probably face another day of turmoil on Tuesday following the shock resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien lecornu. This came only hours after Lecornu announced his cabinet, making this the shortest-lived French government in modern history. Lecornu has been asked by French President Emmanuel Macron to have last-ditch discussions with other political parties in order to find a way out of this crisis. However, the damage is already done. The French OAT futures fell slightly during the Asian session, after bonds plunged on Monday. Attention will be focused on the Paris CAC 40 when the markets open in the afternoon. BCA Research, a research firm, has said that French bonds are uninvestable. Rating agencies have issued new warnings regarding France's sovereign debt score. France has the highest budget deficit within the Eurozone, almost twice the European Union preferred limit of 3%. Since Macron's reelection in 2020, the nation's finances have been vulnerable and political instability has increased, due to the lack of a majority party or group in parliament. The Nikkei soared to yet another record on Tuesday in Japan. Meanwhile, the yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs) remained weak. Investors were bracing for an increase in spending, as well as a looser monetary policy, under Sanae Taichi, who will be the next premier of the country. Takaichi has been favored by the majority of the ruling coalition, which holds the most seats in the parliament. As usual, the slide in the Japanese yen attracted the attention of the authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated on Tuesday that his government would be on guard for volatile currency movements. The auction of 30-year JGBs on Tuesday was closely watched and seen as a test to see if investors were ready for the expected expansion in Japan's spending and monetary policy. This eased concerns that investors would be reluctant to buy long-dated bonds due to the uncertainty of fiscal policy. JGBs recovered some of their losses after the auction, and yields fell. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday. French Politics Bowman, Bostic and Kashkari, Fed officials, speak
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Oil extends gains on smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output hike
Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as a smaller-than-expected November output hike by OPEC+ helped to ease some fears of a growing supply glut. Brent crude futures rose 23 cents or 0.35% to $65.70 per barrel at 0356 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed 21 cents or 0.34% to $61.90. The previous session saw both contracts settle more than 1% above the previous one after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other smaller producers - also known as OPEC+ – decided to increase their collective oil production from November by 137,000 barrels a day. Analysts at ING said that this move contrasted with market expectations of a more aggressive reintroduction. It was a sign the group is still cautious about increasing their production share on the global oil markets, despite predictions of a surplus of supply in the fourth and next years. Anh Pham is a senior analyst with LSEG. She said that Brent had dropped by $5 per barrel in the previous week due to expectations for a bigger supply boost. This mild rebound therefore seems reasonable. He added, "For the moment, the market appears to be able to accommodate the additional volume and we have not yet seen a change into contango on the front curve." OPEC+ increased its oil production targets by over 2.7 million bpd in this year. This is equivalent to around 2.5% of the global demand. The geopolitical situation has kept prices in check, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is affecting energy assets and creating an uncertainty about Russian crude oil supply. Two industry sources reported on Monday that the Russian Kirishi oil refining plant halted CDU-6's most productive distillation after a drone attack on October 4 and a subsequent fire. The unit is expected to recover in about a month. Despite the increase in oil production by both OPEC+ members and non-OPEC+ members, oil prices are still under pressure. Analysts said that any slowdown in the demand caused by weak economic growth due to U.S. tariffs would likely exacerbate this surplus.
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Europa Oil & Gas Eyes 2026 Drilling with PSC Extension in Equatorial Guinea
Europa Oil & Gas has received a one-year extension from the Minister of Hydrocarbons and Mining Development for Equatorial Guinea for the initial two-year period of the EG-08 production sharing contract (PSC), with the plans for drilling of the Barracuda prospect set for 2026.Europa Oil & Gas holds a 42.9% equity interest in Antler Global, which has an 80% working interest in the EG-08 PSC. The remaining 20% is held by GEPetrol, the national oil and gas company of Equatorial Guinea, representing the state’s interest.Formalities to finalize the extension are ongoing and expected to be completed in the coming days. As a result, the first sub-period of Phase 1 of the PSC will now expire on October 4, 2026.The EG-08 block contains 2.196 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas (Pmean), with the primary prospect Barracuda estimated at 878 billion cubic feet (BCF) (Pmean).“I am pleased to have secured the Minister’s approval for this extension which will provide plenty of time to finalize the farm out process for EG-08, where we continue to make good progress. Concurrently, the technical team are working on detailed engineering plans for drilling the Barracuda prospect, which we hope to spud in 2026,” said William Holland, Chief Executive Officer of Europa.Block EG-08, located offshore in the Douala Basin of Equatorial Guinea, is held by Antler Global Ltd, a company set up to acquire the EG-08 block. The PSC became effective in October 2023, with Antler holding an 80% working interest and GEPetrol holding the remaining 20%.The EG-08 block covers 731 square kilometers and has three high-graded prospects assessed to have similar AVO characteristics to the Alen and Aseng fields and other discoveries in Chevron’s Blocks O and I to the south. The prospects are covered with 3D seismic data and lie in about 80 meters of water, with reservoir targets at around 2,800 meters, drillable with a jack-up rig.The three prospects have been defined using standard Amplitude Variation with Offset (AVO) techniques. Since 2005, nine exploration wells have been drilled in this area using AVO techniques, eight of which were discoveries. Volumes across the prospects are estimated at mean prospective resources of 2.116 TCFE (gas and condensate).
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Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand drive gold to all-time high
Gold reached a new record on Tuesday, as there was no sign of an end to the impasse that led to the government shutdown between the two chambers of the U.S. Congress. Near-certainty bets about a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in this month also provided support. Gold spot was up 0.1% to $3,965.39 an ounce at 0308 GMT after reaching a session high of $3977.19 earlier. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.3%, to $3988.10. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "The (chances) of October and December cuts remain above 80%. This is actually supporting the gold price and this government shutdown too given that there's still no resolution reached between the two U.S. Congress sides." Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed Bank president, has indicated that he does not intend to further cut interest rates. He said the Fed should focus on the dangers of high inflation and not just apparent weakness in job markets. According to CME FedWatch, markets are still pricing additional 25 basis point rate cuts for both October and December, with probabilities 95% and 83% respectively. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low-interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. The gold price has increased by 51% this year, mainly due to central bank purchases and the demand for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) backed by gold. A weaker dollar also helped. Retail investors are increasingly interested in hedging their positions amid increasing trade and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs increased its December 2026 forecast for gold to $4.900 per ounce, up from $4.300, on Monday. It cited strong Western exchange traded fund (ETF), and central bank purchases. Silver spot fell by 0.1% at $48.49 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.4% to $1.619.62, and palladium increased 0.1% to 1,325.71. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Sonia Cheema)
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China's central banks extends gold purchases for the 11th month
Official data released by the People's Bank of China on Tuesday showed that China's central banks added gold to their reserves for the 11th consecutive month. China's gold reserves increased to 74.06 millions fine troy ounces by the end September, from 74.02million ounces in August. The PBOC reported that the gold reserves of the country were valued at an estimated $283.29 Billion at the end last month. This is up from $253.84 Billion at the end August. Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said that a strong figure would confirm the notion that China is eager to dedollarize and accelerate their actions in this space. "Further purchase, even modest purchases, will be viewed domestically as positive in a price sensitive market. This may reduce the large discounts offered by Loco Shanghai. "It will give ETF investors and institutions the confidence that gold prices will continue to rise." The gold price, which is traditionally seen as a safe haven from economic and political uncertainty, has reached multiple records so far this season due to uncertainty over U.S. Tariffs, geopolitical conflict, the expectation of interest rate reductions, a weaker dollar, and central bank purchases. On Monday, gold prices rose above $3900 per ounce. The PBOC halted their 18-month gold buying spree in May 2024. The central bank began buying gold again in November 2024. The World Gold Council (WGC), in a survey, found that central banks expect their gold reserves as a percentage of their total reserves to rise over the next five year period. However, they anticipate their dollar reserves will be lower. Reporting by Zhang Yan and Qiaoyi Li in Bengaluru, as well as Anushree Mukerjee and Ishaan Aroo from Bengaluru. Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Christian Schmollinger and Jacqueline Wong.
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Experts urge urgent action as dengue cases spread across Bangladesh
Health experts in Bangladesh have warned that the dengue epidemic is rapidly worsening, with the number of infections and deaths increasing across the nation. They also warn the disease will spiral out of control if coordinated and urgent mosquito control measures are not implemented. As of October 6, the Directorate General of Health Services reported 50,689 cases of dengue and 215 deaths in the United States. Professor Kabirul bashar, an entomologist from Jahangirnagar University said that the outbreak of mosquito-borne diseases -- already severe in September -- could become "alarming this month" due to climate changes and erratic rain, as well extended holidays and weak action by local governments which disrupted antimosquito campaigns. Bashar warned that the situation would spiral out of control if we did not act. Climate change, he said, has prolonged the mosquito breeding season. Delays in fogging and cleaning drives have also exacerbated the problem. Dengue, which was once confined to major cities, is now spreading into smaller towns and rural regions, causing fears that the disease could become endemic throughout the country. Health officials are concerned that the crisis is likely to worsen in the next few weeks as hospitals continue to be overburdened and infections continue to rise. A rise in chikungunya cases, which is also transmitted by mosquitoes, has exacerbated the crisis. Although chikungunya rarely causes death, both adults and children can suffer from severe joint pains and weakness. The worst dengue year in Bangladesh was 2023. This is when 1,705 people died and more than 321,000 were infected. Experts warn the country may face a new cycle of destruction if preventive measures aren't taken. (Reporting and editing by Raju Gopikrishnan; Ruma Paul)
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Goldman increases its December 2026 gold forecast to $4.900/oz
Goldman Sachs increased on Monday its December 2020 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900, citing a strong Western ETF inflow and possible central bank purchases. Goldman stated that "we see the risks of our upgraded gold forecast as still being skewed on net to the upside, because private sector divergence into the relatively tiny gold market could boost ETF holdings beyond our rates-implied estimation," Goldman said. As of 1300 GMT on Tuesday morning, spot gold was trading at around $3960 per ounce after reaching a new high of $3977.19 earlier that day. Gold prices have risen 51% this year, thanks to central bank purchases, an increase in demand for gold-backed ETFs and a weaker US dollar. Retail investors are also becoming more interested as they seek a hedge against increasing trade and geopolitical tensions. Goldman estimates that central bank purchases will average 80 tons in 2025, and 70 tons by 2026. They say emerging market central banks will continue to diversify their gold reserves structurally. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect Western ETF holdings to increase as the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers the funds rate 100 basis points between now and mid-2026. "In contrast to this, the more noisy speculative positions have remained largely stable." After the large increase in September, the level Western ETF holdings have now fully caught-up with our U.S. rate-implied estimation, suggesting that the recent ETF strength was not an overshoot," the report said. Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru, Editing by Tom Hogue & Muralikumar Anantharaman
A mountain of asset sales loom after oil megamerger period
U.S. oil and gas companies could deal with an uphill struggle to sell about $27 billion of properties to fund investor payouts over the next few years as the greatest wave of energy megamergers in 25 years nears the end of regulative reviews.
The share buybacks and dividends are required to entice financiers back to an industry that lots of have actually avoided over volatile returns and pressure to decarbonize portfolios. Energy stocks represent simply 4.1% by weight of the S&P 500, a 3rd of their 2011 share as tech and healthcare financial investments took off.
But finding brand-new owners for these homes is unlikely to be quick or simple, bankers and analysts warn. There are less institutional and European oil purchasers interested, and a lack of all set cash to fund these deals. The personal equity companies that once purchased Big Oil's cast-offs have turned to energy transition, social effect and sustainable financial investments.
The scale of mergers has been extraordinary with $180. billion from six offers given that October. Driven by a rush to include. oil reserves that can be tapped in the future, most of these. offers are expected to finish up this year and will let loose a burst. of oil wells, pipelines, offshore fields and facilities. bundles onto the marketplace. The absence of ready buyers suggests. sales will require time and might develop into asset swaps, instead of. cash sales.
Three acquirers - Chevron, ConocoPhillips. and Occidental Petroleum - have actually vowed to raise between. $ 16 billion and $23 billion combined from post-closing sales. Exxon Mobil, the leading dealmaker, has not divulged a. divestiture target. But it has actually raised $4 billion each year in. sale earnings since 2021.
In addition to less private-equity and worldwide. buyers, more extensive regulative evaluations have actually slowed the. marketing kickoff. Some financial investment lenders believe the. divestitures might run well into next year.
STRIKING THE MARKET
Exxon, which bought Pioneer Natural Resources for $60. billion in May, wishes to offer a collection of standard oil. and gas residential or commercial properties across the Permian Basin, to focus on greater. development assets, a representative verified.
Conoco is primed to offer Western Oklahoma gas homes. gotten in its $22.5 billion offer for Marathon Oil, and. Chevron likely will put a few of Hess' Asia offshore possessions. along with its Canadian and U.S. gas bundles now on the block,. people acquainted with the matter stated on condition of anonymity. due to the fact that regulatory reviews are underway.
Occidental has actually readied a sale of West Texas shale possessions. that might fetch $1 billion, and could include offshore Gulf of. Mexico and Middle East assets when its CrownRock acquisition. closes, state experts.
Exxon confirmed it is exploring a sale of choose. conventional oil properties in West Texas and New Mexico consistent. with our strategy to continuously assess our portfolio. It has. not set a new property sale target because the Leader offer.
Conoco and Occidental decreased to discuss their possession. sales targets.
A Chevron representative stated after the Hess closing we're. going to add some properties that are going to be extremely appealing. to other business. It might produce $10 billion to $15 billion. in pre-tax profits through 2028.
HURDLES REMAIN
These are not the best assets in the market, stated Luis. Rhi, a portfolio supervisor at asset management firm Barrow Hanley. Global Investors, who believes the business can afford to sit. pat till the marketplace for assets improves.
There is a genuine disconnect between the possessions available and. the dollars raised to purchase those properties, David Krieger,. co-managing partner at Houston energy investment company Covalence. Investment Partners. Dry powder for oil and gas investing is a. fraction of what it used to be, he stated.
Europe's oil majors, burned by previous ventures into U.S. shale,. are not apt to return, said Brian Williams, handling director at. financial investment bank Carl Marks Advisors. They have actually finished their. education and have mainly exited U.S. shale, he stated.
Smaller sized private-equity backed firms lack the capital for. these offers, state energy consultants. In 2023, simply 78% of announced. oil deals were below $1 billion in expense, compared to 94% in. 2019, according to M&A advisory company Petrie Partners.
There are not a great deal of sub-$ 1 billion acquisitions. occurring, stated Todd Dittmann, who has actually invested in energy for. several years, mainly just recently for Angelo Gordon & & Co. There is an exit issue in energy personal equity and. partners are not happy about it, he said.
WHO'S LEFT?
Closely-held oil business including Hilcorp, which. specializes in purchasing mature fields, smaller publicly traded oil. manufacturers, and Asian and Middle East investors are best. positioned. Japanese companies just recently have revealed more interest. in U.S. gas, state bankers.
Hilcorp, founded by billionaire Jeffery Hildebrand, is. munching at the bit to get a take a look at Big Oil's cast-offs, stated. an individual familiar with the business.
Somewhere else, We continue to see interest from parts of. the globe outside Europe-- Asia, Middle East and other areas--. where there is cravings to be included and release capital, stated. Bruce On, a partner in Ernst & & Young's strategy and transactions. group.
Many residential or commercial properties in the leading U.S. shale field will be traded. away or kept for their capital, said Andrew Dittmar, director. of M&A at energy analytics firm Enverus.
There is going to be a great deal of ammo for swaps and. trades in West Texas and New Mexico, he said.
(source: Reuters)