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Venezuela's defaulted government bonds soar after US capture Maduro
Venezuela's defaulted government bonds surged Monday after the surprise capture of President Nicolas Maduro by?U.S. Capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Maduro was detained and removed to the U.S. after a military "raid" in Caracas on Saturday. This has fueled expectations that this will be one of largest and most complex sovereign debt restructurings ever. Analysts predict that the bond prices issued by Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state oil company of Venezuela, will rise up to 8 cents per dollar or 20% in early European trading. JPMorgan analysts wrote in a client note that Venezuela and PDVSA bonds had roughly doubled their price over the course of 2025. However, they still expect a strong rebound -- up to 10 points -- when Monday's trading session begins. Venezuela's sovereign debts, which defaulted in 2017, had the best performance in the world in 2018. Their price nearly doubled as U.S. president Donald Trump increased military pressure against Maduro. Data from Tradeweb showed that Monday's move pushed Venezuela's bond 2031 to almost 40 cents per dollar. Most of the other bonds in the country were up between 35 and 38 cents, and PDVSA's debt was over 6 cents more at almost 30 cents. Venezuela's government and state oil company PDVSA have defaulted on bonds that had a face-value of $60 billion. Analysts estimate that the total external debt, which includes other PDVSA obligations as well as bilateral loans, arbitration awards and other PDVSA obligations is between $150 billion and $170 billion depending on how interest accrued and court judgements are counted. Reporting by Marc Jones, Karin Strohecker and Alison Williams.
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European stocks rise as defense shares lead after Venezuela shock
European stocks rose on Monday as investors bought up defense stocks following the U.S. military strikes against Venezuela. This sparked new 'geopolitical' concerns. The STOXX 600 pan-European index was 0.3% higher by 0810 GMT. As investors return from their New Year holidays, trading volumes should normalize. Defense?index grew by 2.7%, reaching its highest level in two months. The technology and basic resources also rose by 2.1% and 2% respectively. Investors continue to monitor the impact of the 'dramatic capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas?Maduro over the weekend by U.S. forces. Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he would temporarily place Venezuela under American control. Investors also focus on central banks and watch incoming data for clues as to how quickly rates could be cut. Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Anglo American all saw their profits rise on the back of higher copper costs. ASML shares, the world's largest?supplier? of computer chip-making equipment?, increased?3.9%. Analysts at brokerage Bernstein upgraded ASML's stock from "market perform" to "outperform", and raised the price target to 1,300 euros, from 800 euros. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahaniwala in Bengaluru, with Medha Singh from Bengaluru)
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Local media reports that Indonesian mines can produce 25% of the proposed output for 2026 in Q1, while applications are being assessed.
According to a letter from the Indonesian mining ministry, miners can produce 25 percent of the output they plan for '2026 in the first three months while the government processes the annual production quotas, according to a report by a local media outlet, Bisnis.com, on Monday. To determine?how much production they can produce each year, all miners in Indonesia, which is rich in minerals, are required to submit a RKAB (annual production plan) to the government. Indonesia has reduced the validity of RKABs to one year, starting in 2026. The government has also ordered that miners reapply for the quotas issued for 2026 and 207. According to regulations published by the ministerial in October, during the approval process for the new quota, the miners can refer to the previously approved quota of 2026 until the end March 2026 when deciding how much they will produce. Nickel miner Vale Indonesia announced on Friday that they were suspending their mining activities because the RKAB was not yet approved. Yuliot Tanjung, deputy mining minister, said that approvals are "currently being consolidated" and the nickel output quota will be adjusted to match demand from domestic smelters. Mining Minister?Bahlil?Lahadalia said that the government would cut mining output quotas in order to boost prices. This includes coal prices which have been stagnant. (Reporting and editing by Fransiska Nanangoy, Bernadette Cristina Munthe)
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China's Iron Ore Starts New Year Higher on Strong Demand and Tight Supplies
China's Iron Ore Futures rose in the first trading session of the New Year on Monday. Strong?demand and supply constraints supported the rise. The May contract for iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 7.5 Yuan or 0.95% to 797 Yuan ($114.16). After the New Year's?holiday, Chinese markets resumed their trading. The benchmark iron ore contract for February on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.29% at $105.65 per ton by 0704 GMT. Steelmakers are restocking iron ore ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which is in February. Tight domestic supplies also support prices. According to a report from the?Shanghai Metals Market, several mines have limited production due to environmental measures. Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that stocks of five major carbon products held by Chinese?mills dropped 1.1% on a weekly basis to 3.81 millions tonnes between December 26 and 31. The DCE also saw a decline in other steelmaking ingredients, including coke and?coking?coal. The SHFE steel benchmarks were mixed. Rebar fell by 0.74%; hot-rolled coils dropped by 0.79%, and stainless steel was down 0.23%. Wire rod, meanwhile, gained 4.93%.
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Chinese, South Korean companies sign nine cooperation agreements
Chinese and South Korean firms signed nine agreements of cooperation,?authorities announced on Monday. This was during a visit to Beijing by South Korean 'President Xi Jinping with Chinese President Lee Jae Myung, their second encounter in only two months. Lee's first visit to China is his first since taking office in June. It comes at a time of escalating global tensions following the North Korean launch of ballistic missiles, and the U.S. strike on Venezuela. Analysts say that the unusually short time between Xi's and Lee's meeting shows 'China's keen desire to boost economic collaboration and tourism, as its relationship with Japan has sunk 'to its lowest point for years'. The South Korean Trade Ministry announced nine agreements on Monday, stating that?Alibaba International and South Korean retailer Shinsegae are among the companies who signed deals. Lee arrived in South Korea for his four-day visit on Sunday. He was accompanied by a delegation of over 200 business leaders, including Samsung Electronics Chairman 'Jay Y. Lee', SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won and Hyundai Motor Group Executive Chairman Euisun Chung. Lee wants to promote peace on Korean Peninsula. However, his visit to Beijing coincides with the North Korean test firing hypersonic missiles, and Kim Jong Un's citing of Pyongyang needing to maintain a strong nuclear deterrent. Lee stated that South Korea and China should expand their economic cooperation on artificial intelligence and also in consumer products such as beauty, household goods, food, and cultural content like movies, music and games. Kang Hoon -sik, South Korean Chief of Staff to the President, said that Beijing is unlikely to lift their unofficial ban against Korean culture any time soon. China's state-run broadcaster CCTV reported that Lee's visit will include a discussion on supply chain investments, digital economies, and cultural exchanges. As China and Japan negotiate a diplomatic spat, South Korea's and Beijing’s relations have warmed. Beijing was "incensed" when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi suggested, in November, that Tokyo could take military actions if Beijing attacked Taiwan. Taiwan rejects China's claim that the island is itss.
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Gold prices surge as demand for safe-havens increases due to the US arrest of Venezuela's president
Gold and other precious metals prices rose on Monday, following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States over the weekend, which exacerbated geopolitical tensions. Gold spot rose by 2.2% at 0742 GMT to $4,424.17 an ounce. This is a new weekly high. U.S. Gold Futures for Delivery in February rose 2.4% to $4434.20. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that kidnapping a foreign leader of state leads to a high degree of uncertainty. Gold and silver are seen as a good hedge against this. The U.S. captured Maduro on?Saturday in an attack that Washington's most controversial Latin American intervention since the?invasion of Panama 37 year ago. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who has been appointed interim leader, said that Maduro "remains" president. The 'bullion's' 64% gain last year was the biggest since 1979. This is due to geopolitical tensions combined with central bank purchases, interest rate reductions and inflows into ETFs. The record high was $4,549.71, which occurred on December 26, 2025. Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said on Saturday further rate reductions could be a long way off following an active campaign of ease last year. Investors still expect at least two Fed rate reductions this year. Waterer said that investors will be looking at the non-farm payroll figures, due on Friday, to get more clues about potential Fed rate cuts. Non-yielding investments tend to perform well when interest rates are low and there is uncertainty in the geopolitical or economic arena. After hitting an all time high of $83.62 per ounce on December 29, spot silver rose 3.9% to $75.50. The metal finished the year with a record 147% increase. Silver's price soared?to new highs last year due to its designation as an important U.S. Mineral and supply constraints due to?increased industrial and investment demands. After reaching a record high of $2.478.50 per ounce on Monday, spot platinum increased 3.9% to reach $2,226.24 an ounce. Early Asia hours saw it rise more than 5% to a new high. Palladium climbed 1.6% to $1,664.40 per ounce.
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India's palm oil imports in December fell to an 8-month low due to weak demand
Five dealers report that India's palm oils imports dropped to an 8-month low in the month of December. This was due to a weaker winter season and refiners increasing their purchases of competing oils like soyoil or sunflower oil. Reduced palm oil imports by?India, which is the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oil, could increase inventories in top producing countries Indonesia and Malaysia. This would weigh on benchmark Malaysian Palm Oil Futures while supporting U.S. Soyoil Futures. According to dealers, palm oil imports dropped 20% in December, to 507,000 tons, the lowest level since April 2025. Dealer estimates show that soyoil exports jumped 37%, to 508,000 tonnes, while sunflower oil imports more-than-doubled, to 350,000 tons. Estimates show that India's total edible oil imports rose by 19% in December compared to the previous month, reaching a new three-month record of 1,37 million?tons. This was due to an increase in soyoil imports and sunflower oil. They said that the import numbers exclude duty-free shipments?that arrived via land border from Nepal. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said that India imported approximately 632,000 tonnes of palm oil per month in the marketing year ending October 2025. It plans to publish its December data by mid-January. The demand for palm oil has remained low due to the winter season and increased availability of domestic edible oil such as cottonseed, groundnut, and soya oil. India's palm?imports are usually moderated during winter, when the tropical oil becomes solidified at lower temperatures. This limits its use in the northern parts of the country. India imports a lot of palm oil, mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia. It also imports sunflower oil and soyoil from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. Sandeep Bajoria is the chief executive officer of Sunvin Group. A vegetable oil brokerage firm and consultancy.
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Trump's Venezuela gamble tests investors' appetite for geopolitical risks
Investors warn that the geopolitical risk may be underestimated by markets after Donald Trump threatened to take further action in America. After President Trump announced that the U.S. will take over the oil-producing nation, investors held their nerve, despite oil prices falling modestly. Gold prices rose, however, due to safe-haven flows. Trump's threats towards Colombia and Mexico, while Washington hasn't made such an aggressive intervention in Latin America since 1989 when it invaded Panama, highlighted the aggressive change in U.S. policies and brought geopolitical risks to the forefront for financial markets in the beginning of the year. Vishnu Varathan is the head of Asia Ex-Japan macro research at Mizuho Securities, Singapore. The question is: Is the stability of LatAm as a whole at risk? It's then a completely different proposition, isn't? The flow-through effect and all could even be greater." Analysts and investors stated that the calm market response to Maduro’s capture was because Venezuela's oil output relative to global production is small, and it would take many years of investment to catch up. The impact of the military action on the sentiment will be far-reaching, but it could also unlock Venezuela's vast reserves of oil and boost risk assets in the long-term. Trump said that American oil companies were ready to take on the difficult task of entering Venezuela to invest in order to restore production. Tai Hui is the chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management for Asia-Pacific. He said that this event should have broader geopolitical ramifications. However, he believes that financial markets do not price such risks very accurately. First test of the Markets in 2026 The U.S. stock market and the global markets have made a rapid start to 2019 after finishing 2025 at record highs. They had notched double-digit increases in a turbulent year marked by tariff wars and central bank policy, as well as simmering geopolitical conflicts. As a result of Trump's willingness to use U.S. force in support of his policy agenda, the immediate impact will be felt in the?defence sector. Analysts say that the increased uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy will also weigh on the dollar's safe-haven status. The U.S. Dollar firmed up a little on Monday, but it is coming off of its worst year in 2017. It will drop?over 9 percent against major currencies by 2025. Investors are also concerned about the implications of Trump's actions on Venezuela for China's stance towards Taiwan, and if Washington will be more aggressive in its efforts to change regimes in Iran. Li Fang-kuo is the chairman of Taiwan's Uni-President Stock Investment Advisory Unit. He said that investors do not have to worry about China?attacking Taiwan. "Yes, China conducted military exercises around Taiwan. But we haven't seen anything like the months-long escalation that we witnessed from the U.S. against Venezuela." Some analysts claim that investors are becoming accustomed to Trump's foreign policy and military strategies. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. He said that the U.S. actions in Venezuela are more of a geopolitical shock than an oil scare at this time. Investors tend to return to rates, earnings and positioning unless the action threatens the supply chain. "We are in a regime that is dominated by geopolitics, and this is not surprising." (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee in Singapore, Rae Wee in Taipei and Gregor Stuart Hunter; Additional reporting from Faith Hung)
Mexico constitutional reforms most likely with super-majority in sight
Mexican Presidentelect Claudia Sheinbaum's judgment Morena celebration and coalition partners are close to protecting a supermajority in both chambers of Congress, which would lead the way to passing controversial constitutional reforms.
Below is a take a look at the possible relocations that have markets and investors worried, and caused a sharp decline in Mexican asset costs on Monday.
DESPERATE EFFORT
Sheinbaum's coach, outbound President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, proposed a series of constitutional reforms in February, a few of which critics argue would get rid of much-needed oversight bodies, wear down checks and balances and focus more power in the executive branch.
Now, with a two-thirds bulk locked in the lower house of Congress and within his grasp in the Senate, Lopez Obrador will overlap with the freshly chosen lawmakers in his last month in workplace in September. Lopez Obrador on Monday recommended he would make a desperate effort to ram them through before handing the baton over to Sheinbaum.
I'm going to talk it over with Claudia ... due to the fact that we presented the propositions that are in Congress, to see which of those efforts we can push for and get approved, Lopez Obrador said at his day-to-day interview.
Issue about the shakeup sent out stocks falling over 6%. and the peso as much as 4.3% lower.
INDEPENDENT OVERSIGHT BODIES
Amongst the proposed changes, Lopez Obrador wishes to scrap the. constitutionally-enshrined flexibility of details body INAI,. federal anti-trust agency COFECE, advancement evaluation firm. Coneval and telecoms regulator IFT.
It would likewise put the energy ministry in charge of energy. regulator CRE and national hydrocarbons commission CNH, both of. which are now independent and which, like the other autonomous. bodies, Lopez Obrador charges with promoting corruption.
OVERHAULING THE ELECTIONS AUTHORITY
Throughout his administration, Lopez Obrador often berated. and bumped heads with such firms, consisting of the National. Electoral Institute (INE), which he is looking for to entirely. overhaul.
As many as 700,000 people filled the streets of Mexico City. in February to demonstration of the proposed dismantling of the INE.
The reforms are a method of instituting electoral reform to. cement Morena's political hegemony; lowering the bar for public. referendums to obtain legal validity, stated Nicholas Watson,. handling director of consulting company Teneo.
Lopez Obrador has actually frequently utilized such referendums to. pursue contentious policies like cancelling a partly-built. Mexico City airport before he took workplace in a vote in which. just a portion of the public got involved.
STRUCTURAL MODIFICATIONS TO THE JUDICIAL, LEGAL BRANCHES
Lopez Obrador also wants huge modifications in the judicial system,. which would see popularly chosen Supreme Court justices,. circuit magistrates, district judges, and electoral authorities.
The number of supreme court justices would be cut to 9, from. 11. In addition, all magistrates and judges would need to be. restored in an extraordinary election to happen in 2025, part. of a series of moves critics state would reduce independent. courts.
Lopez Obrador has said the changes are needed because the. present judiciary serves a minority and sometimes arranged. crime at the expense of society.
His reforms would also cut the variety of members of the. lower home of Congress to 300, from 500 and slash the number of. senators to 64 from 128.
S&P Global Scores stated while greater centralization of. political decision-making and blended political signals under. Lopez Obrador had minimized the self-reliance of numerous firms,. important checks and balances throughout branches of federal government,. consisting of the judiciary, stayed.
Steps that deteriorate checks and balances might affect. private-investor self-confidence by creating perceptions of greater. risk, potentially impacting economic growth and sovereign. creditworthiness, it alerted.
LAUNDRY LIST
The proposed reforms, among which Lopez Obrador may need to. pick offered the tight window between the last legal. session under him and Sheinbaum's October inauguration also. consist of:
-- Expanded retirement benefits for senior citizens 65. years or older and disabled people
-- Improved trainee grants
-- Paid employment training for youths between the age. of 18 and 29
-- a restriction on genetically modified corn
-- a restriction on water rights in locations dealing with dry spell
-- a ban on open pit mining and fracking
A few of the reforms if authorized could intensify a worsening. budget deficit which experts state is likely to be a significant burden. for Sheinbaum once she takes workplace.
(source: Reuters)