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The PM has said that the government of Romania could reduce temporarily the excise taxes on fuels.
In a recent media interview, Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan stated that Romania's broad coalition could decide to lower excise duty?on fuels temporarily next week to combat the economic repercussions of the Iran war. The government approved the first set of measures on Thursday. These include limiting the exports of gasoline and the amount of biofuel that can be added to it for three months, as well as capping the fuel price increase at the average level of last year. After criticism by employers and unions, the approved measures were 'watered-down' from their initial plans. Leftist Social Democrats, government's biggest party and vocal critic of Bolojan, also asked for the government to?lower the excise tax. Bolojan, a journalist for the news website G4media.ro, was quoted by the site as saying: "From the standpoint of excise duty, it is the simplest solution and we are very likely to go for this aspect." "On the other hand, it is important to estimate the amount of a reduction in excise duties that the Romanian government - and the state as a whole - can support, for how long. Unfortunately, we cannot predict the duration of the war with Iran." The Finance Ministry approved earlier this month a 652 mil lei (147.23 mill) scheme of?state assistance? to offset?partially the gasoline prices? for road transporters. Farmers will also receive a similar scheme. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul; Luiza Ilie)
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For hungry markets in Europe, it was the kids' menu.
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Investors who bet on TACO'seemed to have gotten what they wanted. Donald Trump, after Nasdaq fell?into correction area overnight, announced that he would delay his planned attacks on Iranian power stations for another 10 days. The price response?has?not been as completely awe-inspiring as he had hoped. Brent crude futures fell less than 1%, to $107.24 per barrel. This is a small decline after a nearly 6% rise overnight. Wall Street futures are up 0.4% but this is nothing compared to the surge on Tuesday, when Trump extended his 48-hour deadline?to five days. The EuroStoxx 50 futures in Europe rose by 0.5% while Treasuries, the dollar and other currencies are mostly flat. Investors may be growing numb with Trump's verbal assurances. Some thought that by extending the date twice, Trump was merely pushing the issue?down to the future, which would suggest the war will not end anytime soon. Reports that an additional?10,000 U.S. soldiers may be headed to the Middle East fueled fears of a ground conflict. Mission creep could drag the U.S. to a full-blown war. However, there is no guarantee that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened anytime soon. This led to cautious trading over the weekend. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan has fallen over 11% since its peak at the end of February. Japan's Nikkei fell 10% from its peak in February. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.5% bringing their weekly loss to an imposing 7%. Central banks warn against raising rates if they can, to combat a stagflation-like threat, similar to the 1970s. Norges Bank in Norway raised eyebrows on Thursday with a "spectacular" U-turn, saying it would not be raising rates this year despite previously predicting three reductions by 2028. Both Governor Michael Barr and Vice-Chair Philip Jeffers sounded worried about sticky inflation. Three of their colleagues are scheduled to speak later today. The markets will be listening out for more hawkish opinions. The stakes are high, given the recent seismic shift in market pricing. A rate increase in September is already priced in at about 50%. Fed officials were predicting a rate reduction this year. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. The Middle East Conflict: Recent Developments Retail sales in the UK are published for February Thomas Barkin and Anna Paulson, as well as Mary Daly, Fed officials speak
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INDIA BONDS - Fuel tax cuts in India deal a fresh blow to bonds amid oil boom and heavy debt supply
Indian government bonds fell after New?Delhi’s excise duties on fuel clouded fiscal?outlook. This exacerbated market anxiety, already stoked due to the war-driven rise in oil prices and heavy debt supply. As of 10:40 am IST, the benchmark 6.48% bond yield for 2035 was 6.9256%. It had closed at 6.8750% during the previous session. The yield had reached 6.9523% earlier in the day. This was its highest level since July 2024. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices. The bond market is caught up in a storm caused by adverse triggers which have pushed yields upwards. The end of the financial year is not what the market or regulator may have wanted, according to a trader at a private banking firm. New Delhi has reduced the special excise tax on petrol from 13 rupees to 3 rupees a litre. The duty on diesel was also reduced to zero rupees from 10 rupees, as fuel prices remain volatile and supplies are 'choked' by the Middle East - war. The impact of the duty reductions on the Indian government is estimated by economists at $15.91 billion to $16.97 billion for fiscal year 2027. Brent crude is hovering around $105 a barrel. Energy shipments have been halted through the Strait of Hormuz due to the war. The Strait of Hormuz carries one-fifth of all oil and LNG supplies in the world. India is the third largest crude importer in the world. High oil prices threaten to worsen inflation at home and increase the current account deficit. India has'retained' its inflation target of 4% over the next five-year period. Demand has also been impacted by supply pressures. Indian states are looking to raise 429.4 bn rupees via bond sales in the coming days, after raising a record 12.31 trln rupees during this financial year. As oil prices and Treasury yields remain high, India's overnight swap rates (OIS) have been under a lot of pressure. The two-year OIS was trading at 6.2850%, but the one-year OIS had not been traded yet. The liquid rate for five-year swaps was 6.65%.
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REFILE-Asian government scrambles to assure markets after Middle East war saps market confidence
As the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran continues, a growing number of governments are scrambling for liquidity and to calm the financial markets. This is due to the pressure that the war on Iran has placed on their currencies, and the volatility in the market. How different countries respond: SOUTH KOREA South Korea is planning to 'buy back emergency bonds worth 5 trillion won ($3.32 billion), to inject liquidity into the local bond market, and to cap rising yields. This comes after three-year treasury yields reached their highest level since mid-2024. The ministry has also extended fuel tax reductions and is currently drafting a 25 trillion won supplementary budget, which could include vouchers of cash for consumers and financial assistance for businesses. The Finance Ministry aims to submit the budget to the Parliament by March's end. The Japanese government will use?800 billion ($5 billion) of reserve funds to fund subsidies that aim to keep gasoline prices at around 170 yen a litre. The measure could cost up to 300 billion yen a month. The Middle East Crisis is driving energy prices sharply upwards. PHILIPPINES On March 26, the Philippines' central banks convened an unexpected, off-schedule, policy review. It said it was to reassure the market that they were?assessing the situation. It signaled that it would be ready to act if inflation expectations dropped. AUSTRALIA The Australian government has yet to make any major policy changes, or proposals. They have only taken steps to ensure the imports of fuel and diesel which are in short supply due to panic-buying. Prime Minister Albanese will meet with state premiers and chief minsters next week in order to devise a plan for managing the fuel crisis. The government anticipates that the crisis will last several months. The government has not considered fuel rationing, but it may consider other voluntary measures such as encouraging people to work at home. In May, the government will release its budget for 2026/27. It is being urged to reduce spending while some groups push for energy relief policies such as cutting taxes on fuel or providing direct assistance to households and small businesses. The government is considering taxing "excess profits" made by Australian gas companies to raise much-needed revenues. The central bank of Australia is more worried about inflation than economic development and has raised interest rates twice this year, to 4.10%. It could raise them again in May. NEW ZEALAND New Zealand 'has temporarily aligned its fuel standards with Australia in order to increase the import options. It will also provide temporary weekly assistance of NZ$50 (US$29.30) to low-income families from April to offset rising costs. The government also updated its National Fuel Plan and made it public. It outlines four phases of response for petrol, jet fuel and diesel fuel.
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Oil prices set to fall the most in a single week since 6 months
Oil prices dropped on Friday, and were on track to have the steepest weekly drop?in the past six months. This was after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks with Iran on a 'peaceful end' had been going well and he would pause his attacks on Iran’s energy plants for ten days. Brent futures dropped 84 cents or 0.8% to $107.17 a barrel at 0353 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures lost $1.02 or 1.1% to $93.46 a barrel. On a weekly basis, both benchmarks traded 4.6% lower despite Brent increasing 5.7% and WTI gaining 4.6% Thursday due to fears of a further escalation in the war. Oil is not only trading on headlines, but also the length of war. Priyanka?Nova, an analyst with Phillip?Nova, said that any direct damage to the oil infrastructure or prolonged war could 'force markets to quickly reprice higher. Trump has announced a pause on attacks against Iran's energy grid, but the U.S. also sent thousands troops to the Middle East. Trump is weighing the use of ground forces to take over Iran's strategic oil center of Kharg Island. A senior Iranian official said that the 15-point U.S. plan, which was sent to Tehran by Pakistan, was unfair and "one-sided". The war has deprived the world of 11 million barrels per day of oil, according to the International Energy Agency. Macquarie Group analysts said that if the war ends soon, oil prices will drop quickly, but remain at pre-conflict level. They said that prices could increase to $200 if war continues until the end of June. The market is becoming more and more pressured with each passing day. Mukesh sahdev, CEO and founder of the Australia-based consultancy XAnalysts, said that Asian countries are 'tapping buffer stocks' to adjust demand. Helen Clark reported from Perth, and Sudarshan Varadhan from Singapore. Sonali Paul and Saad Saeed edited the article.
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Chicago oilseeds and grain futures are wracked by uncertainty over the Iran war
Chicago oilseeds and grain futures fluctuated on Friday between 'gains and losses' as investors watched?developments? in the Middle East, amid mixed signals?from the U.S.?and Iran?about efforts to?end the war. The Chicago Board of Trade's (CBOT)?most active?corn contract gained 0.1%, to $4.67-1/4 a bushel. It has been up 0.4% this week. CBOT Wheat lost 0.1%, to $6.04 1/2 a bushel. However, it was up 1.6% this week. Soybeans rose 0.1% to $11.74 1/2 a bushel to bring the weekly gain to 1.1%. As they are used as biofuel feedstock, corn and soybeans tend to follow the movements of oil prices. Oil prices dropped in early trade and were down for the entire volatile week. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks with Iran on ending the war are going "very, very well." He also said he will pause his attacks against the energy plants of the country for 10 days. A senior Iranian official, despite Trump's optimistic assessment, said that the U.S. plan to end the conflict was "unfair and one-sided." Iran has continued to strike bases in Israel and the United States as a form of retaliation against U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Iranians also attacked Gulf States and blocked Middle East fuel imports via the Strait of Hormuz which transports about 20% of world oil and LNG. Iran has stated that it is not in talks with Washington. The traders are also waiting for a possible announcement on revised U.S. biofuel targets during a White House event that will take place later today. The U.S. Department?Agriculture will release its acreage estimates on Tuesday. Due to rising fuel and fertiliser prices caused by the Middle East War, the market is keenly interested in the planting decisions of farmers. The Russian Federation, which controls 40% of the global ammonium nitrate trade, announced on Tuesday that it would suspend its exports until April 21, to ensure a sufficient supply for the spring planting season. (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson, Sumana Nady and Subhranshu Sahu; Daphne Zhang)
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Prices of iron ore fall after Cyclone Narelle spares Australian ports
Iron ore futures fell on Friday as traders unwound their?supply disruption bets following Tropical Cyclone Narelle's spared of vital port infrastructure in Western Australia. As of 0330 GMT, the most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange?traded at $813.60 ($117.60) per metric ton. The contract has still gained 0.13% this week. On the Singapore Exchange, the benchmark April Iron Ore was $107 per ton. This is a 0.32% decrease. This week, it has fallen 1%. Atilla Widnell is the managing director of Navigate Commodities. She said that iron ore futures will?likely experience a temporary corrective, because traders are relieved tropical cyclone Narelle did not affect vital Western Australian port infrastructure. Even though the ports were closed, any damage to the infrastructure could have caused prolonged supply interruptions. Widnell said that iron ore shippers are still concerned about bunker fuel and refueling, as the war in Iran continues to disrupt energy supplies, causing fuel rationing and increasing shipping costs. The iron ore futures market was rangebound in the week ahead amid concerns about supply disruptions due to Australia and possible production cuts by steel mills related to environmental protection measures. According to LSEG, data compiled shows that higher market risks also reduced transaction volumes. Iron ore stocks are high. Continue to press prices. A note from Shanghai Metals Market stated that hot metal production increased by 15,000 metric tonnes week-on-week this week. This indicates support for the demand. Separately inventories of BHP’s Jimblebar Fines, a type of iron ore, in some Chinese ports fell to a near two-month-low after steelmakers rushed?to take delivery during a brief reprieve of an import ban of one week, traders said. The ban was re-implemented in the past and is still in effect, along with BHP's Newman Fines. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, both fell by 2.43% & 1.75% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving lower. Rebar fell by 0.22%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.36%. Wire rod also weakened 0.3%, and stainless steel declined 0.62%. ($1 = 6.9132 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy).
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Singapore plans to establish Asia's gold trading hub
Singapore announced plans to transform the city-state of Singapore into a gold trading center for the entire Asia. Regulators and industry players are working together to improve the trading, clearing, and storage infrastructure. Singapore is one of many Asian financial centers racing to increase their gold trading and capture more bullion flows. Hong Kong, too, is pushing to expand the gold market's links with Shanghai. The Singapore Bullion Market Association and the Monetary Authority of Singapore have identified four areas of focus. These include the expansion of gold-related products on the capital markets and the establishment of a trust clearing and settlement system. Other areas include improving vaulting standards, studying vaulting services for foreign central bankers and sovereign entities and strengthening the vaulting and logistic standards. Chee Hong Ta, Singapore's Minister for National Development and MAS Vice Chairman, told reporters Friday that "we are not?placing a bet on whether?the price in the short-term will go up or down." What we do is create an ecosystem of gold trading activities based in Singapore. Chee stated that the plan was based upon industry feedback, and was intended to bring more gold and high value activity to Singapore as well as?creating employment. The working group was formed by MAS and SBMA in?January. Members of the group include DBS, ICBC Standard Bank JPMorgan UBS UOB SGX, and World Gold Council. OCBC announced in February that it was 'exploring physical gold custody' for wealthy and institutional clients. In an uncertain global climate, demand for gold remains strong, despite a recent sharp drop in prices triggered by a stronger dollar and a rise in oil prices.
McGeever: The data on US jobs forces us to look backwards from the Mideast chaos and AI "doom"
Investors will turn their attention, for a while, to the familiar economic terrain of the United States on Friday, as long as there is still war in the Middle East. jobs data.
Since the joint U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, last Saturday, the events have dominated the market thinking to such an extent that fears about artificial intelligence putting millions of white collar workers at risk of being thrown out have been pushed back.
The U.S. Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Figures for February, which will be released on Friday, may bring these concerns back to the forefront in the minds of investors, and, depending on the specifics, they could also rise to the top of the agendas of policymakers.
A poll of economists found that the median consensus was for a net increase in non-farm payrolls of 59,000 last month, which is less than half the January rise. The unemployment rate will remain at 4.3%.
The jobs report is still closely monitored for any warning signs. These include weak job growth or net job losses.
In fact, starting now, monthly payroll reports, as well as other labor market indicators, such "JOLTS", layoffs and weekly claims for joblessness, will likely be lightning rods in the debate about "AI doom", or whether AI technology will ultimately destroy jobs, economic growth and demand.
APOCALYPSE, HOW? Last week, the markets were abuzz with talk about an upcoming AI "apocalypse." Investors were trying to identify AI winners and loser, while bets for multiple Federal Reserve rate reductions this year increased.
Jack Dorsey CEO of Block Inc., who announced on February 26th that he would be firing "nearly half" of his employees, even though his fintech company was "strong... and profitability was improving," helped to incite fear.
Some people think that Dorsey, and other CEOs or chief financial officers might 'blame' the disruptive power of AI on what are really cost-cutting measures - given the labor hoarding after the pandemic.
Dorsey’s statement scared investors, but it was not surprising. A series of research notes and blogs describing the doomsday AI scenarios had been widely circulated.
Investors and policymakers need to separate the facts from the noise when assessing AI's impact on the labor markets. This means analyzing hard numbers, which are often backwards-looking. It is a challenge to use that data to predict the direction of wind.
The picture is more balanced than AI skeptics would have you believe.
Suraj Srinivasan, a professor at Harvard Business School, and his team analyzed all U.S. jobs posted from 2019 to March of last year. The study found that after ChatGPT launched in November 2022 the demand for analytical, technical and creative roles increased by 20%, while openings for jobs that are most likely to be automated fell 13%.
Goldman Sachs economists estimate AI is currently a hindrance to job growth by 5,000-10,000. This is negligible in an economy which creates over 30 million new gross jobs each year.
Goldman's economics estimates that AI will eventually replace 11 million jobs, or 6-7% of all workers. The technology will also create new jobs.
They wrote: "We do not expect a job apocalypse."
The same is true of other?research. Morgan Stanley's survey of U.S. firms conducted in January revealed that companies in the industries most likely to adopt AI are more inclined to hire and retrain employees than to eliminate or not fill jobs.
A Dallas Fed paper published last week concluded that AI has both helped and replaced workers.
The headlines of the monthly U.S. Employment reports are usually all that matters. With AI 'doomsday' fears rife the details below the headlines could now take on a much greater significance and help cut through the fog.
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(source: Reuters)