Latest News
-
Morning bid for Europe-Dire Straits for global oil trade
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Everyone is now an expert in crude?shipping across the Strait of Hormuz. Marine Traffic shows the 'tankers' piled up on either side of this vital waterway, which carries about a fifth of all the world’s?oil and liquefied gas trades. It also carries a third of its?fertiliser. The main buyers of Iranian crude oil are Asia and China. It's not closed, but shippers will be reluctant to take a risk, especially if they cannot afford additional war insurance. Charter rates on very large tankers were already skyrocketing before the attacks, and now they will be even higher. If the shooting stops, it could be a while before the blockage is cleared. The Daily Mail reported that President Trump said the attacks could continue for up to four weeks or until "very strong goals" are achieved by the United States. It is difficult to know what these objectives are. The U.S. strike -?reportedly 1,000 or even more - appears to have taken place all over Iran, on many sites including air defence and intelligence as well as warehouses and barracks. It is not known if there are enough advanced missiles and ammunition to last for a full month. Israel launched another wave of air attacks on Tehran Sunday, and Iran responded with more missiles barrages a day following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. OPEC+ decided to increase crude oil production by 206,000 barrels a day in April. However, this is only 0.2% of the global oil demand. Brent rose almost 6%, to $77.00. It briefly reached $82.00. The gains this year have been more than 26%. Some analysts even suggest $100 as an ideal round-off target. Such a rise, if persistent, could reignite inflation and act as a global tax on businesses and consumers. The 10-year Treasury?yields fell initially to a 11-month low of 3.926% before reversing to 3.970%. Fed fund futures have fallen 4 ticks to December, which indicates a slightly lower chance of rate cuts. A June move is 50-50. FX reaction was muted. The dollar rose a little against the euro and yen but fell a bit against the Swiss franc. The Norwegian krone is expected to benefit from the oil price jump, but it is not heavily traded in Asia. Airlines and banks are among the worst performers on the Asian share markets. European and U.S. stocks futures are lower, but off their early lows. Now, the focus is on tanker watch. Markets could be affected by a number of key developments on Monday. Alan Taylor of the Bank of England's MPC, and Ryozo Himino, Bank of Japan's Deputy governor, were all present. * EU and Global PMIs. US ISM Manufacturing Survey, German Retail Sales, UK House Prices
-
Palm extends its gains as it tracks Dalian and Chicago rivals
Malaysian palm oils futures continued to rise on Monday for a second consecutive session. They also reached a new high of one week, tracking the strength of Dalian and Chicago edible oil, while gains in the energy complex also provided support. By midday, the benchmark?palm-oil contract for May delivery at the Bursa Derivatives Exchange had gained 61 Ringgit or 1.51% to 4,103 Ringgit ($1,051.24) per metric ton. A Kuala Lumpur based trader reported that "Bursa Malaysia CPO Futures opened higher tracking price spreads of rival oilseeds." "Sentiment is also finding support in gains made by the energy complex as supply-risk worries intensify amid escalating Middle East tensions, which threaten one of the most important energy corridors." Dalian's palm oil contract grew by 1.55%, while the most active soyoil contract gained 0.29%. Chicago Board of Trade soy oil gained?1.99%. As it competes to gain a share of the global vegetable oil market, palm oil monitors the price fluctuations of competing edible oils. The oil price jumped higher than it has been since January 2025 during the morning session as Iran and Israel intensified their attacks on the Middle East. This led to damage and disruption of shipments and tankers from this key region. Palm oil is a better option for biodiesel because crude oil futures are stronger. Indonesia raised its crude palm exports tax to 12.5% from 10%. This was revealed in a Finance Ministry regulation. Officials said the move aims to fund its mandate for?biodiesel blends?. Intertek Testing Services, a cargo surveyor, said that exports of Malaysian products containing palm oil fell by 21.5% in February, from 1,463,069 to 1,149,063 tons. Statistics Bureau data released on Monday showed that Indonesia exported 2,24?million tons of crude palm oil and refined palm oils in January. This was an increase of 77.07% compared to the previous year, with shipments worth $2.29 billion. Technical analyst Wang Tao stated that palm?oil could test resistance at the?4,111 per metric tonne level, with a high chance of breaking through this level to reach 4,168-4193 ringgit. ($1 = 3.9030 ringgit)
-
South Korea's Lee meets with Singapore's Wong to discuss AI and tech cooperation
On a visit to Singapore, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung held a summit with Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong to discuss ways of expanding their cooperation in fields such as artificial intelligent and nuclear energy. Lee and Wong held a press conference at which they announced that negotiations had begun to upgrade the existing free trade agreement between the two countries, which came into effect in 2006. South Korea's Blue House reported that the countries had also signed five Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs). These were for cooperation in areas such as small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), AI, and other scientific fields, such as quantum and space satellites. Lee, who spoke at the press conference, said that other partnerships would include investment cooperation between Singapore's sovereign fund Temasek with its asset management unit Seviora Group and state-run Korea Development Bank. Lee stated that Singapore was a significant place for the historic U.S. - North Korea summit in 2018. "I hope that you will continue to play an active role in promoting peace on the Korean Peninsula and throughout the region." Lee reported that Wong and Lee exchanged views about the Middle East situation, including the impact on global'security,' energy and supply chains, and expressed their hopes for stability and peace to be restored. (Reporting and editing by Ed Davies.)
-
High stocks, steel production curbs in Tangshan and a decline in iron ore are the main reasons for this.
Iron ore prices fell on Monday. They were impacted by production curbs at China's top steel hub Tangshan as well as a slow recovery of the?steel market after the holiday season and high portside stocks. As of 11:30 GMT, the most traded?iron?ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 0.13% to $747 yuan (US$108.81) per metric ton. As of 135 GMT, the benchmark April iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange was down 0.16% at $98.2 per ton. Local authorities announced on Saturday that the northern city of Tangshan in China, a key hub for?steel manufacturing, had activated level two emergency response as of Sunday, due to forecasts?of deteriorating air quality. These measures, which typically require local mills?to curb production and?cool the demand for raw materials, follow previous calls for northern Chinese?mills to reduce output during the annual parliament meeting beginning March 5 to ensure cleaner?air. Guiqiu Xhuo is an analyst at Jinrui Futures. He said that the slow recovery of steel demand, coupled with stockpiling, has dampened mills’ appetite to restock?feedstocks. This, in turn, has weighed on iron ore prices. Zhuo said that high portside inventories, which rose?to a record high of 162,17 million tons on February 27 according to data from consultancy Steelhome also limited price increases. Coking - The price of coal and coke (other steelmaking ingredients) fell by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's steel benchmarks were largely unchanged. Rebar, wire rod, and hot-rolled coils all saw changes of less than 0.1%. Stainless steel increased by 0.64%. $1 = 6.8652 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
-
Gold prices rise as US-Israeli strikes on Iran spur demand for safe-havens
Gold prices rose on Monday, after U.S. and Israel launched a major strike on Iran that killed the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. This heightened geopolitical tensions, and deepened global economic uncertainty. As of 0201 GMT, spot gold was up 1% to $5,329.39 per ounce after reaching its highest level in over four weeks. Bullion prices rose as high as 2% earlier in the session. U.S. Gold Futures increased 1.8% to $5342.80 an ounce. Israel launched new strikes against Tehran on Sunday, and Iran responded by firing more missiles. This came a day following the death of Khamenei which threw the Middle East into deep uncertainty. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst at Capital.com. He said that the dynamics for gold are positive. Due to increased global political and economic uncertainties, the price of gold, a safe-haven asset, has already reached successive record highs this year. The latest rally builds upon a 64% increase in 2025. This was driven by central bank purchases, strong inflows to exchange-traded fund and expectations of monetary policy ease in the United States. J.P. Morgan & Bank of America both reiterated last week that the gold price could rise to $6,000, a key level. J.P. Morgan stated that it forecasts sufficient demand from central bankers and investors to push gold prices up to $6,300 per ounce by 2026. "Gold is the best barometer for global uncertainty, and to use a metaphor, mercury is rising. "We should expect gold to be priced higher as we enter into a new era geopolitical uncertainties," said independent analyst Ross Norman. Data released on Friday shows that U.S. producer price rose higher than expected in January, indicating inflation may pick up in the coming months. Investors are also watching a series U.S. labor markets readings, such as the ADP Employment Report, the weekly jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls. After registering a gain of 2% in February, spot silver fell?1.2% and is now $92.72 per ounce. Palladium prices rose 0.5%, to $1,795.11 an ounce. Spot platinum dropped nearly 1%, to $2,343.50 per ounce.
-
Oil prices soar, stock markets tumble on Middle East turmoil
As military conflict in the Middle East appeared to be extending into the next few weeks, investors flocked to relative safety offered by the dollar and gold. Brent rose?4.5% to $76.07 per barrel. It had briefly reached $82.00 at one point. U.S. crude increased 3.9% to $69.59 a barrel. Gold grew 1.0% to $5 327 per ounce. The United States and Israel's military strikes on Iran have not ceased, but Iran has responded with missile attacks across the region. This could drag its neighbours into a conflict. Donald Trump told the Daily Mail that the conflict could continue for another four weeks. He also posted on Twitter that the attacks would continue until U.S. goals were achieved. The Strait of Hormuz was the focus of attention. It is where a fifth of all oil traded by sea and 20% of liquefied gas are transported. Marine tracking sites show that the waterway is not yet blocked but tankers are piled up on both sides of the strait, perhaps because they cannot get insurance. The most immediate and tangible?development affecting the oil markets is an effective halt of the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This prevents 15 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd), from reaching the markets, said Jorge Leon. He is head of geopolitical analyses at?Rystad. We expect oil prices to rise significantly unless de-escalation signs are quickly sent out. A sustained spike in oil price could reignite inflationary pressures worldwide, and act as a tax for consumers and businesses that would dampen demand. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to a modest increase in oil production of 206,000 barrels a day for April, but a large amount of this product must still be transported out of the Middle East via tanker. Alan Gelder is Wood Mackenzie's SVP for refining and chemicals. He said that the Middle East oil embargo in the 1970s increased oil prices 300%, to $12/bbl by 1974. This is just US$90/bbl by 2026. In today's market, where there are concerns about supply losses, it seems possible to surpass this. The Nikkei fell by 1.4% as a result. Airlines were the worst hit. Blue-chips in China went their separate ways and held steady. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan dropped 1.2%. It's a big US data week The UAE and Kuwait have temporarily closed their stock exchanges in the Middle East, citing "exceptional situations". In Europe, EUROSTOXX50 futures fell 1.4% while DAX futures dropped 1.3%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both fell 0.6% on Wall Street. The dollar was the main beneficiary of the oil shock. The U.S. has a large energy industry and Treasuries remain a safe haven during times of stress. This caused the euro to drop?0.2%, or $1.1788. The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe haven, but the country imports its entire oil supply. This makes the flow of money more bi-directional. The dollar rose 0.1% to 156.25 Japanese yen while the Australian dollar gained, often used as a liquid proxy of?global risks. On the bond market, 10-year Treasury rates have remained steady at 3,970% after briefly touching a 11-month low 3.926%. Bonds were in high demand on Friday after UK mortgage lender MFS went into administration due to allegations of financial irregularities. The collapse of MFS stoked credit concerns, as well-known banks were among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion). Wall Street was hit by the news, which impacted banking stocks and AI-related stocks. Investors will also be faced with a torrent of?U.S. This week we have a number of economic reports, including the ISM manufacturing survey, retail sales, and the ever-important payrolls report. After a disappointing quarter, any weakness in the economy could undermine confidence. It would also reduce the chances of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The markets currently indicate a 50% probability of easing this June, and about 60 basis point cuts for the rest of the year. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes, Shri Navaratnam and Wayne Cole)
-
Malaysia renews Lynas Rare Earths' operating license for 10 years
Malaysia has renewed Lynas Rare Earths’ operating license?for ten?more?years?to 'import raw material containing natural radioactive materials and process rare Earths,' the Australian miner announced on Monday. By 0131 GMT the shares of Lynas had risen as much as 7 % to A$20.30, their highest level since October 21, 2025. The benchmark ASX 200 index was down around 0.5%. Lynas, who is the Malaysian Department for Atomic Energy, said that they are expected to issue a?formal license soon. The Southeast Asian country raised concerns about the radiation levels?from the cracking and leaching process, raising fears that Lynas?license would not be renewed. The Australian company's operations will be allowed to continue until March 2026 after the license is amended by the government in 2023. Lynas is investing in its Malaysia facility. It has spent about A$180m ($127.91m) on a new separation facility to meet the?demand of heavy?rare earth oxides that are sourced from outside China.
-
Iran conflict slows BOJ rate increases, putting Japan at risk of growth.
Analysts say that a prolonged Middle East conflict could lead to low growth in Japan and high inflation, if oil prices remain high and hit the import-dependent economy. This would complicate the efforts of the central bank to raise interest rates. The oil prices rose 7% on Monday, reaching their highest level in months as Iran and Israel intensified attacks in the Middle East. This disrupted shipments out of the region's main producing area. It was a major blow to Japan which imports 90% of its crude from the Middle East. Sanae Takaichi, the Prime Minister of Japan, told reporters that she had instructed her cabinet to prepare estimates about the economic impact that the weekend's strikes against Iran could have. The extent of the damage to Japan's economy depends on the length of the conflict and the disruption to oil shipments from the Middle East. Japanese shipping firms announced on Sunday that they would cease operations in the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. military strikes on Iran. Although Japan has enough oil to last three months, a rise in crude prices and a blockade on the Strait of Malacca could hurt already weak consumption by increasing prices of a wide range of goods. Analysts say that the combination of soft demand with rising inflation may cause the Bank of Japan to be in a holding pattern. This could delay the next rate increase, which the markets believed could happen as early as April, before the weekend crisis. Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities calculates that a 10% rise in oil prices will reduce Japan's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by around?0.1%. Takeshi Y. Yamaguchi, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities' chief Japan economist, said: "A sudden rise in oil price would present short-term stagflationary risk, but underlying inflation will likely decelerate on a longer term basis." He said that the BOJ would likely adopt a?cautious approach, reducing?the likelihood of a rate hike in the near future. Nomura Research Institute predicts that the military conflict will cause a disruption to operations in the Strait for a long time, which could lead to an increase in inflation of 0.31%. Takahide K. Kiuchi is an economist with Nomura Research Institute and a former BOJ member. The final quarter of the year saw Japan's economy grow by an annualised 0.2%, with rising costs of living weighing down on consumption. Analysts predict that growth will accelerate, as moderated food inflation and fuel subsides ease the burden on households. Real wages are expected to move into positive territory. (Reporting and editing by Leika Kihara)
T&E report: EU can reduce battery prices by up to 50% with Made in Europe plan
T&E, a campaign group for transport and the environment, said in a report on Monday that scaling up production in Europe would reduce the 'cost gap' between EU-made and Chinese batteries to 30%, down from the current 90%. The group urged the EU, through its "Made in Europe", plans, to support this sector. The EU executive will propose its "Industrial Accelerator Act", which requires that local products be given priority when using public funds. It is intended to cover "key sectors" such as batteries, solar, wind, hydrogen manufacturing, nuclear power, and electric vehicles.
Some automakers claim that local content requirements will make batteries "exorbitantly expensive" and reduce the competitiveness of their models.
T&E reported that increased manufacturing efficiency, particularly through lower scrap rates?aswell as labour know-how?and automation?could reduce the cost gap to $14 per kilowatt hour?in 2030.
This would be equivalent to a gap of 500 euros for an electric vehicle, which could even be less with public incentives. Or it could be treated as a premium of insurance against the kind of export restrictions China already placed on "critical minerals" and "rare earths". "Europe must have a domestic industry to protect its supply chain from being weaponised. Local content requirements are the best way to avoid another Northvolt. The cost of Made in EU rules is worth it, said Julia Poliscanova. T&E senior director for vehicles and e-mobility.
Cost gap could only?narrow if EU requirements for local content allowed companies like ACC, Powerco and Verkor to increase production.
T&E stated that the 'Made in Europe Plan' should explicitly state that public support schemes include EV tax incentives for EV owners, as well as employers and employees in corporate vehicle schemes.
(source: Reuters)