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Oil extends decline by 1.5% on hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace deal
Oil prices dropped 1.5% on the Friday, continuing a downward trend for the third consecutive session. The United States was pushing for a Russia/Ukraine agreement that could increase global supply while investors were hesitant about its rate reductions. Brent crude futures dropped 93 cents or 1.5% to $62.45 per barrel at 0416 GMT after falling 0.2% the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.7% or 98 cents to $58.02 per barrel after ending the previous session down 0.5%. The two contracts will fall by more than 2.5% on the back of concerns about oversupply, wiping out most of last weeks gains. The market sentiment has turned negative as Washington pushes for a plan of peace between Ukraine and Russia that will end the three-year conflict. Meanwhile, sanctions against top Russian oil producers Rosneft & Lukoil set to go into effect on Friday. Oil prices continued to fall as Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, agreed to collaborate with Russia on a peace plan. U.S. sanctions against two Russian oil companies are due on Friday. The slim chances of an agreement, which would eliminate much of the geopolitical premium for the war baked into crude, are weighing down on prices. Some analysts, however, were skeptical about how quickly a peace agreement could be reached. Analysts at ANZ told their clients that an agreement was far from being certain. They added that Kyiv had repeatedly rejected Russia's requests as inacceptable, preventing any breakthrough. The market is becoming increasingly sceptical about the effectiveness of the new restrictions on Russian oil firms Rosneft, and Lukoil. Lukoil still has until the 13th of December to sell off its vast international portfolio. Oil prices were also impacted by a stronger dollar, as the commodity denominated in dollars is more expensive to holders of other currencies. UOB analysts stated in a client letter that the dollar strength against Asian currencies became very apparent after investors further reduced the odds of a rate cut being made at the FOMC meeting scheduled for December, after the minutes of its highly divided October meeting were released. Investors bet that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in January.
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Copper prices fall on week-end dollar firm as traders evaluate US employment data
Copper fell on Friday, and it was likely to be a loss for the week, as investors were cautious before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, and China's low demand added further pressure. As of 0330 GMT the most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.82%, to 85,670 Yuan ($12,045.16) per metric ton, resulting in a weekly decline of 1.42%. The benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange fell 0.39%, to $10,696.5 per ton. It is expected to finish the week with a loss of 1.41%. The September job data on Thursday, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, offered mixed signals to the Fed, with policymakers pondering the December rate decision, showing stronger-than-expected growth in new hiring but a rise in the jobless rate to a near four-year high. The September delayed data will be last official employment data before December's interest rate decision. The dollar remained strong, as Fed officials remained hawkish. This weighed on commodities that were traded in greenbacks by making them costlier for investors who used other currencies. Prices are still high this year, and demand is weak from China. Shanghai copper is expected to increase by more than 16 percent in 2025. London copper will rise by 22 percent this year. Yangshan Copper Premium The latest price of copper in China, which is a measure of Chinese appetite, was $33 per ton, down from the peak of over $100 at the beginning of May. Lead fell 0.43%. Nickel tumbled 1.70%. Tin lost 1.27%. Aluminium fell 0.73% among other LME metals. Zinc dropped 0.86%. Lead shed 0.45%. Nickel lost 0.59%. Tin was down 1.01%. Friday, November 21, DATA/EVENTS - (GMT) 0700 UK retail sales MM,YY Oct 0700 France Business Climate Mfg Overall Nov 0815 France HCOB Mfg Svcs Comp Flash PMIs Nov 0830 Germany HCOB Mfg Svcs Comp Flash Svcs PMIs 11 0900 EU HCOB Svcs Comp Flash Svcs PMIs 11 0930 UK Flash Svcs Comp PMIs - Nov 0930
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China warns its citizens that they could become'mining slavery' in the Central African Republic gold rush
The Chinese embassy in Central African Republic (CAR), has warned that its citizens could become "mining slaves", in the gold trade of the politically insecure nation. Chinese workers are now looking to sub-Saharan Africa for work as gig economies in Asia dry up. The embassy released a statement Thursday stating that Chinese nationals were killed or kidnapped, and some even scammed of large sums and deported because they illegally mined. China has sent workers to resource-rich sub Saharan Africa in search of fortune. Gold prices have soared amid massive Chinese state purchases, while factory and construction jobs are disappearing as China's economy slows. Illegal mining has exploded in Ghana, Mali, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (nearby), as a result of lax regulations and enforcement. The Chinese Embassy in Bangui warned that Chinese citizens involved in gold mining in Central African Republic faced significant security risks. It had heard reports of Chinese nationals whose documents were confiscated and who became "mining slaves." The embassy didn't say how many Chinese workers sought to work in illegal mines in CAR. The statement stated that "some were killed in a rampant antigovernment militia activity; others were tragically attacked after becoming embroiled in conflicts between forces and countries and some succumbed fatal illnesses such as malignant malaria." The embassy warns that "others met violent ends through staged accidents such as 'car crashes,' or hangings' after disputes with other shareholders." The Central African Republic embassy in Beijing has not responded to a comment request immediately. CAR is a country in civil war for over a decade. It's one of the poorest in the world but it has huge reserves of oil, diamonds, and gold. Analysts say that China's principle of non-interference is designed to protect its economic interests abroad. Beijing has increased its public diplomacy in recent years to protect Chinese nationals abroad. The Wolf Warrior 2 film, one of China's most popular films, is about a former Chinese Special Forces soldier who rescues Chinese workers from a war-torn African nation. It ends with an image a Chinese passport, and the message "Don't quit if you find yourself in danger abroad." Please keep in mind that a strong motherland is always there to protect you. China has for years deemed areas outside of Bangui, the capital city of the CAR, as "extremely high risk" and urges its citizens to evacuate. The U.S. State Department continues its "Do Not Travel "highest advisory. The Chinese Embassy quoted a mother who had lost her son as saying, "The biggest regret I have in my life is that I did not stop him from going to Central African Republic to search for gold."
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Japan's largest nuclear power is awaiting a key decision from the regional governor
On Friday, a Japanese regional governor will be expected to announce whether he is willing to allow a partial restart at the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear plant, which is the largest in the world, as Japan attempts to revitalize its nuclear sector while reducing fossil fuel imports. The approval of Niigata Prefecture governor Hideyo Haazumi will remove the final major obstacle for Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) in its plans to restart Kashiwazaki and Kariwa's two biggest reactors. TEPCO would be able to restart its power plant for the first time since March 2011, when the tsunami destroyed Fukushima Daiichi. This would be a major breakthrough for Japan which, after the disaster, shut down all 54 reactors. Sanae Takaichi - the new Prime Minister of Japan, who was appointed last month - has stated that she is in favor of more nuclear relaunches, both to improve energy security and reduce the cost of imported electricity, which makes up 60% to 70% or Japan's total electricity production. On Friday, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru K. Kihara stated that "the restart... is extremely crucial from the perspective to reduce power supply and prices and secure decarbonized energy sources." Japan has restarted fourteen of the remaining 33 reactors that were in operation prior to Fukushima. Governor Hanazumi will announce his decision on Friday at 4:00 pm (07:00 GMT). It was unclear whether the report released by Japan's nuclear regulator on Thursday about inadequate security management at Kashiwazaki Kariwa would affect his decision. TEPCO plans to restart unit No. 6 and No. TEPCO, if approval is granted for both, plans to restart units No. 7 can together produce 2,710 Megawatts, which is about a third the total power of Kashiwazaki Kariwa (8212 MW). TEPCO plans to decommission a few of the five other units. In July, Kansai, Japan's largest nuclear power company, announced that it would start conducting surveys in order to study the possibility of building a new reactor west of Japan. This would be the country's first new unit built since the Fukushima catastrophe. TEPCO's shares fell 1.3% on the Friday after the Nuclear Regulation Authority report. This was better than the Nikkei Index, which dropped 2.3%. (Reporting and editing by Tony Munroe, Tom Hogue, and Kaori Kaneko. Additional reporting by Katya Glubkova.
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Iron ore continues to fall due to softer China demand. Set for second weekly gain
The price of iron ore futures fell on Friday, for the second consecutive session. This was due to signs of weaker demand in China and the shrinking margins within steel. As of 0301 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange shed 0.25%. It was 786 yuan (US$110.52) per metric ton. As of 0251 GMT, the benchmark December iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down 0.24% at $103.7 per ton. The average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous week, reaching 2.36 million tonnes on November 20. According to Mysteel, the steel margins have continued to shrink. Only a little over one-third of steel mills are operating at a loss, as opposed to nearly a quarter a month ago. Both benchmarks have gained 1% this week, which is a second consecutive weekly gain. Prices of seaborne iron ore The average price has remained well above $100 in November, despite expectations that it would be between $90-95. According to a report on Wednesday, long-running negotiations between China's iron ore buyer, the state, and BHP, a miner, have reduced availability of iron ore. This has led to lower prices, despite a decline in demand for this key ingredient. Exclusively reported, the state-run buyer of iron ore has ordered steel mills to stop buying a specific type of BHP ore. This ban is in addition to another one already in place, and escalates a dispute about a new contract. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, fell by 0.98% each and 0.28% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar was flat; hot-rolled coil fell 0.12%; wire rod increased 0.09%; and stainless steel rose 0.28%. ($1 = 7.121 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Gold prices fall as US jobs data boosts rate-cut expectations
Gold inched down on Friday as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will refrain from cutting interest rates at its December meeting. As of 0242 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.1%, at $4,072.87 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery edged up 0.3% to $4,071.90 an ounce. GoldSilver Central MD Brian Lan stated that "gold prices are currently consolidating and we can see the dollar has gained quite a bit. Behind it, there's a lot speculation about whether or not the Fed will cut interest rates further." "I think the market is uncertain and, especially now that we are approaching the end December, we expect many traders to take profit from their positions, as we saw last week and this week." On Friday, the dollar was set to have its best week in over a month. Gold priced in greenbacks becomes more expensive for those who hold other currencies. The U.S. Labor Department's closely-watched report was delayed due to the shutdown of the federal government. It showed that nonfarm payrolls in September increased by 119,000. This is more than twice the expected increase of 50,000. The traders now expect a Fed rate reduction next month. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well in low interest rate environments. The minutes of the Fed's meeting in October, released on Wednesday, showed that it had cut interest rates despite warnings by policymakers that this could lead to inflation entrenched and a loss in public confidence. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated on Thursday that he was "uneasy' about the frontloading of interest-rate reductions, especially with the progress on inflation toward the Fed's goal of 2% looking to be stalling and going the wrong direction. The price of palladium remained unchanged at $1,377.50. Platinum rose 0.4% to 1,521.41 and silver fell 0.5% to 50.35 cents per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips, Rashmi aich, and Brijesh patel in Bengaluru)
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Oil extends decline on possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal
Oil prices continued to fall for the third consecutive session on Friday, as the U.S. sought a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine that could increase oil supplies on the global market. Meanwhile, uncertainty about interest rate reductions in the U.S. curbed investors' risk appetite. Brent crude futures dropped 71 cents or 1.12% to $62.67 per barrel at 0212 GMT, after falling 0.2% the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $58.29 per barrel, down by 71 cents or 1.12%, after closing the previous session 0.5% lower. Both contracts will fall by more than 2% on concerns about oversupply this week. The market sentiment has turned negative this week, as Washington continues to push for a plan of peace between Ukraine and Russia that will end the three-year conflict. At the same time, sanctions against top Russian oil producers Rosneft & Lukoil should be implemented on Friday. Lukoil's huge international portfolio has to be sold by December 13. The slim chances of an agreement, which would eliminate much of the geopolitical premium for the war baked into crude, are weighing down on prices. The price of oil was also affected by a stronger dollar, as holders of other currencies were forced to pay more for the commodity. Investors bet that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in January. Helen Clark is reporting; Lincoln Feast is editing.
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Sources say RPT-China has expanded the BHP iron ore product ban to include a new product, as discussions drag on.
Sources said that China's state owned iron ore purchaser has ordered steel mills to stop buying a specific type of BHP ore. This ban is in addition to another one already in place, and escalates a dispute about a new contract. China Mineral Resources Group, set up in 2020 to centralise the purchasing of iron ore and to win better terms for miners, has asked Chinese steel mills to not buy new cargos of Jinbao Fines, a low-grade ore produced by the world's largest iron ore mining company, BHP. Sources said that CMRG had told mills they were not allowed to receive Jinbao Fines from ports for three days. "There may be a lot of activity at the ports during these days," one source stated. It is not possible to determine the number of iron ore traders, steel mills and other companies that received an order from CMRG in this week. This is the second time CMRG has asked Chinese steel mills to stop purchasing BHP's Jimblebar blend fines. Both parties are in long-term negotiations about a contract for 2026. BHP responded to questions regarding the Jinbao Ban by saying that it doesn't comment on commercial negotiation. Earlier that day, the miner had said they were still in negotiations with CMRG. CMRG didn't immediately answer questions. Small Trade Volumes CMRG could have targeted the fines from Jinbao instead of other BHP cargos, because the trade in lower-grade ore is so small, and the ban wouldn't disrupt the market too much, according to both sources and analysts who spoke under condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue. The three sources all said that the trade was so small, they didn't track it regularly. Prices have been supported by the tightening of supplies at ports after the first ban on medium-grade ore, such as Pilbara Blend fines. This is despite a weakening in demand for this key ingredient. The price of iron ore rose to a record high in less than a week on Wednesday, even though crude steel production fell to its lowest level since December 20,23. This was due to bad weather that forced some northern mills into reducing their output. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens and Aidan Lewis.
Europe has ceased to rely on American science
Interviews indicate that European governments are taking measures to reduce their dependence on the scientific data that the United States has historically provided to the world. They are also stepping up their data collection systems in order to monitor weather extremes and climate change. This effort, which was not previously reported, is the most concrete response to date from the European Union and European governments in response to President Donald Trump’s administration’s retreat from scientific researchers. Trump, since his return to the White House in 2017, has implemented sweeping cuts to agencies such as the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Centers for Disease Control, and others. He has also dismantled programs that conduct climate, weather and geospatial research, and taken some public databases off-line. According to interviews, as these cuts are implemented, European officials are becoming increasingly concerned that governments and businesses may have difficulty planning for extreme weather and long-term investment in infrastructure if they do not continue to access U.S. supported weather and climate data. In March, over a dozen European nations urged the EU Commission in order to quickly recruit American scientists whose jobs were lost due to these cuts.
When asked for comment about NOAA cuts and EU moves to expand their own collection of scientific information, the White House Office of Management and Budget stated that Trump's proposed budget cuts for the agency in 2026 were targeted at programs which spread "fake Green New Scam ‘science'," a reference to policy and research on climate change.
Rachel Cauley, a spokesperson for OMB, stated via email that "Under the leadership of President Trump, the U.S. funds real science again."
European officials expressed concern about the U.S.'s general pullback in research, despite the fact that they are concerned that the data is vital to understanding climate change and marine systems.
Maria Nilsson is the Swedish State secretary for Education and Research. She said: "The current situation has been much worse than expected." "My reaction is, quite frankly, shock."
The Danish Meteorological Institute called the U.S. Government data "absolutely crucial" and stated that it relied upon several data sets for measuring sea ice and surface temperatures in the Arctic. The DMI's National Center for Climate Research director Adrian Lema said that reliable data is essential for extreme weather forecasts, climate projections and protecting communities.
Officials from eight European nations said that their governments are reviewing their reliance on U.S. climate, marine and weather data. Seven countries, including Denmark, Finland Germany, Netherlands Norway Spain and Sweden, described their joint efforts to protect key climate and health data.
LEANING ON THE U.S.
A senior European Commission official said that the EU was expanding access to ocean observations data as a matter of priority. These data sets are vital to the shipping, energy and early storm warning industries.
The EU is planning to expand the European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODN) in the next two-years. This network collects and hosts data about shipping routes, seabed environments, marine litter and more.
Senior European Commission officials said that the initiative aimed to "mirror and possibly replace US-based services". Europe is concerned that the U.S. will cut funding to NOAA, which would have a negative impact on Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), a network of ocean-observation programs that support navigation services, shipping routes, and storm forecasting. A second EU official confirmed this.
Insurance companies rely on disaster records from the Global Ocean Observing System to model risk. Coastal planners use data on shoreline, sea level, and hazards to guide investments in infrastructure. Oceanic and seismic data are used by the energy industry to determine offshore drilling or wind farm feasibility.
The senior EU Commission official also said that the EU was considering increasing funding for the Argo Program, a component of the Global Ocean Observing System, which uses a global network of floats in order to monitor oceans around the world and track global climate change, extreme weather and sea level rise. NOAA described the program that has been in operation for more than 25 years as the "crown gem" of ocean sciences. Its data is freely accessible to the oil and gasoline industry, marine tourism, and other industries. Argo's annual operating costs of $40 million are funded by the EU, but 57% is covered by the United States. White House and NOAA didn't respond to any questions regarding future support of that program. Craig McLean who is retiring in 2022, after 40 years at the agency, believes that European efforts to set up independent data collection and take a larger role in Argo are a break from decades of U.S. ocean science leadership. He said the U.S. was the undisputed leader in weather, climate, and marine data collection, and through NOAA, the U.S. had paid for over half of all ocean measurements around the world. European scientists recognize the U.S. government's outsized role in global scientific data collection and research. They also acknowledge that European countries are overly dependent on this work. It's similar to defense, we also rely heavily on America in this area. Katrin Boehning Gaese is the scientific director at Germany's Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research.
"GUERRILLA ARCHIVISTS" A number of European countries are taking steps to reduce this dependence. Sigrun Aasland, Norwegian Minister for Research and Higher Education and Research, said that Nordic countries had met in the spring to coordinate their data storage efforts. In May, European science ministers met in Paris to discuss the U.S. budget cuts for science.
Aasland stated that Norway would set aside $2 million for the backup and storage of U.S. Data to ensure stable access.
In February, the Danish Meteorological Institute began downloading historical U.S. Climate Data in case they were deleted by the U.S. Christina Egelund said that the Danish Ministry of Higher Education and Science is also planning to move away from American observations and to alternative ones.
Lema, from the Institute, said that "the potentially critical issue" is when new observation data stops coming in. He said that while weather models would continue to work without U.S.-based data, the quality of those models would be affected.
The German government, meanwhile, has asked scientific organizations including the Center to examine its dependence on U.S. database.
Scientists and citizens around the world have downloaded U.S. databases that were slated to be decommissioned - calling this "guerrilla archive." We received emergency calls from our U.S. colleagues who told us, "We have a serious problem and will need to abandon certain datasets," said Frank Oliver Gloeckner. He is the head of PANGAEA's digital archive, operated by German public funded research institutions.
As part of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency cutbacks, about 800 of NOAA's 12000-strong workforce were terminated or given financial incentives to leave. The White House budget plan for 2026 aims to shrink NOAA further. It proposes a $1.8 billion budget cut or 27%, as well as a staffing reduction of nearly 20%, bringing the NOAA workforce down to 10,000.
The budget proposal eliminates the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (NOAA's principal research arm), which is responsible for ocean observatories including Argo, coastal observation networks, satellite sensors, and climate model laboratories.
Also, it is reducing the number of data products. NOAA announced the decommissioning on its website of 20 datasets related to marine science and earthquakes between April and June.
NOAA has not responded to any requests for comment.
Gloeckner stated that there are no legal obstacles to storing data from the U.S. Government as the information is already public.
Denice Ross is a senior fellow with the Federation of American Scientists. The group is a nonprofit science policy organization. She was the chief data officer for the U.S. Government during Joe Biden’s administration. Ross stated that databases need to be updated regularly, which is only possible with government funding and infrastructure.
In the past few months, officials from the Federation and EU have had a series discussions with European researchers, U.S. charities, and groups that advocate for health and the environment to determine what data should be saved.
She said that other nations, institutions, and philanthropies could fill in the gaps left by the U.S. quality if it starts to deteriorate.
(source: Reuters)