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IEA predicts a slowdown in the growth of global oil demand for the remainder of 2025
The International Energy Agency (IEA), said Thursday that economic headwinds and record sales of electric cars will reduce global oil consumption growth to 650,000 barrels a day for the rest of 2025. This is a significant drop from the 990 000 bpd that the IEA estimated for the demand growth between January and March. In its oil market report for May, the IEA stated that "increased trade uncertainties are expected to have a negative impact on the global economy, and by extension, the oil demand." IEA expects the global demand to grow by 740,000 bpd this year. This is an increase of 20,000 bpd from last month due to higher economic growth expectations and lower oil prices that support consumption. The demand is expected to grow by 760,000 bpd on average in 2026. The Paris-based watchdog increased its forecast for supply growth by almost 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) on the month, to 1.6million bpd by 2025. This was due to higher production from Saudi Arabia offsetting a predicted decline in U.S. oil production in a lower price environment. The IEA says that Saudi Arabia is responsible for the majority of the increase in its 2025 forecast supply growth, since it is the only nation with the capacity to add barrels to the market based upon current production levels. At its last meeting, the OPEC+ Group agreed to a second monthly accelerated production increase for June. The IEA has cut its U.S. shale production forecasts by 40,000 bpd in 2025 and 190,000. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its 2025 oil supply forecasts for the U.S. The IEA reported that a sharp increase in oil supply will push storage levels up by 720,000 bpd on average this year. Last year, stocks had declined by an average 140,000 bpd. (Reporting and editing by Tomasz Janowski, Jan Harvey and Alex Lawler from London)
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Suedzucker confirms lower earnings forecast on weak sugar markets
Suedzucker, Europe's biggest sugar producer, confirmed on Thursday that it expects a decline in earnings for this financial year as the EU sugar markets remain weak in the coming months. The company said it hopes for an improvement in the sugar market by October 2025. The company has confirmed that it will achieve a full-year operating profit between 150 and 300 millions euros ($168-$336million), down from the previous estimate of 350 million euros for the year ending February 2025. Sugar producers in the European Union have been hit by low prices due to the decision of the bloc to allow the importation of cheap Ukrainian sugar, as part of their support for Ukraine following Russia's invasion. In March, it was reported that the EU wanted to drastically cut Ukrainian sugar imports after European producers complained about large shipments fueling a price collapse. The company stated that "the significant drop in the price of sugar in fiscal 2024/25 would impact the market up until the autumn of 2025." We expect lower EU sugar production for the 2025/26 marketing year. This will lead to a rise in sugar prices in October 2025, at the start of the 2025/26 marketing year. This financial year, the company is expecting an operating loss of 100 to 200 million euros in its sugar business. Suedzucker is involved in a variety of businesses, from bioenergy and processed foods to ethanol.
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Gulf markets dull as global stock rally loses momentum
The majority of Gulf stocks were flat on Thursday morning, with oil prices falling and Asian stock markets declining after the initial excitement from eased trade tensions started to fade. Investors waited for more signals. Brent crude futures fell more than 2% and U.S. Crude also dropped. The global stock market had earlier in the week rejoiced over the truce between the U.S. and China trade war. However, the rally was lost as investors took a pause to assess the situation and its impact on the economy. Dubai's main stock index was the sole market in the region to choose a clear direction. It rose 0.3%. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index of stocks was flat at 0706 GMT. Saudi Aramco announced on Wednesday that it had signed 34 preliminary agreements with major U.S. firms, which could be worth up to $90-billion. In early trading on Thursday, shares of Aramco fell by 0.4%. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, signed a number of agreements for economic and bilateral co-operation with Saudi Arabia this week. The agreement was part of a four day Middle East tour that focused on negotiating with a major Mideast ally. The benchmark index in Abu Dhabi was down by 0.02% while the benchmark index for Qatar was down by 0.06%. (Reporting by Chandini Monnappa in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
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Government advisers: Germany is on track to meet its 2030 climate goals, but future targets are at risk
Independent government advisers on Thursday warned that Germany risks missing its post-2030 targets but is on track to reach its 2021-2030 goal. They urged a clear, long-term strategy for Europe's biggest economy. According to the Expert Council on Climate Issues, Germany will likely achieve its 2030 target of reducing emissions by 65% compared to 1990 levels thanks to exceptional events such as the COVID-19 Pandemic and a slowdown in the industrial sector. The Climate Protection Act allows for a certain amount of greenhouse gas emissions. It projects that Germany will miss its climate targets beyond 2030 as forests and wetlands, which were previously carbon sinks, are now becoming sources of emissions as a result of forest degradation. This puts the country's carbon neutrality target for 2045 at risk. Last week, a new German coalition of conservatives, Social Democrats, and Greens took office. They prioritized economic recovery and sought to change the energy policy of the previous government, which they viewed as being too focused on climate. The council called on the government to concentrate its efforts in areas where emissions have not decreased. The council concluded that sectors such as construction and transport did not achieve their targets for 2024 and had a worse performance than the previous year. Berlin has struggled to find a balance between climate protection and affordability. This is reflected in the transformation of these two sectors that directly impact people's daily lives, such as home heating or mobility. Brigitte Knapp, the Deputy Chair of the Council, said that the coalition agreement did not address key problems and was vague in several places. The report said that a long-term plan that specifies the interaction between residual carbon emissions and natural and technological carbon sinks should be developed as soon as possible. (Reporting and editing by Nia William in Berlin, Riham Alkousaa)
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Trump claims the U.S. is close to an agreement with Iran on a nuclear deal
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that on Thursday the United States is very close to reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran and that Tehran has "sort of" accepted the terms. Trump told AFP that he was in "very serious" negotiations with Iran to achieve long-term stability. Officials said that the latest round of talks between Iranians and Americans to resolve differences over Tehran's nucleus programme ended on Sunday in Oman. Further negotiations are planned. Tehran and Washington both say they prefer diplomacy in resolving the decades-long dispute over nuclear weapons. However, they are deeply divided about several redlines that negotiators must avoid to reach a deal and avert a future military strike. Iran's President reacted to Trump's comments Tuesday, calling Tehran the "most damaging force" in the Middle East. He contrasted the "collapse" and "suffering" caused by Iranian leadership with Saudi Arabia's constructive vision. "Trump believes he can threaten and sanction us, and then talk about human rights." "They (the United States) are responsible for all the crimes and instabilities that occur in the region," Masoud Pezeshkian stated, adding that Tehran wished to see peace instead of U.S. war. "Saudi Arabia, a muslim country. How can we be against these people? Trump wants to place Iran and the Islamic world on opposite sides. He wants to create unrest inside Iran."
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Focus on mining data and the upcoming Ramaphosa Trump meeting to boost South African rands
South Africa's currency, the rand, edged higher against a weaker US dollar on Thursday morning after President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed that he will meet with Donald Trump of the United States next week. This follows days of speculation. At 0622 GMT the rand was trading at 18,22 per dollar, which is 0.3% higher than the closing price of Wednesday. The presidency stated that Ramaphosa’s meeting with Trump will provide a forum to reset the strategic relationships between the two nations, who have been at odds ever since Trump returned to Washington in January. Investors will be focusing on the March gold and mining production figures, which are due at 0930 GMT. According to economists polled, they expect a fifth successive contraction. In a recent research note, Nedbank economists said that mining is also struggling with unfavourable supply conditions at home and a global economy that has become more subdued. They added that this sector would likely slow down the economic growth of the country in the first quarter 2025. Early deals for South Africa's benchmark government bond of 2030 were little changed, with the yield increasing by 0.5 basis points. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens; Sfundo parakozov)
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Conférence delegates claim that China has plenty of cobalt, despite the Congo ban
The Chinese cobalt industry has ample supplies of battery-making materials despite an export ban placed by the top producer in the world, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), late in February. This was revealed this week at a conference for the industry. Shirley Wang, General Manager at Shanghai Metals Market and Cobalt Congress 2020 in Singapore, said that downstream users in China - the largest consumer of the metal - have intermediate product stocks that will last for between two weeks to six months. Wang stated on Thursday that "large-scale users" in China have six months' worth of stock, while small-scale businesses, who only have half a month's worth, will be forced to purchase from the spot markets at higher prices. Congo's four-month ban on exports was imposed to combat global oversupply of metals used in the manufacture of batteries for electric cars and mobile phones and to revive prices. The ban helped to raise cobalt prices from $10 per pound at the end 2024, up to $16 today. Wang stated that Chinese traders have also stocked up on cobalt, a total volume equivalent to 12 month's demand. On the sidelines, four delegates from Chinese cobalt smelters stated that their supplies of cobalt were stable and not affected by Congo's prohibition. One of the four delegates stated that the stockpiles could peak in June since it takes about four months for the cobalt from Congo mines to reach Chinese port. Patrick Luabeya said that the Congo may implement strict cobalt restrictions when the current ban on exports ends. In an interview, Kizito Pakaabomba, Congo's Mines Minister, stated that the ban was to ensure that the supply met the demand. However, we noticed that the supply had not been affected by the consumers. According to Wang, Shanghai Metals Market's director, the cobalt surplus is expected to continue through 2025. The total supply will increase by 6%, to 327,000 tons, due to cobalt being produced as a cobalt byproduct of nickel and copper mining. Wang estimates that cobalt demand will be about 237,000 tonnes this year, an increase of 0.3% over 231,000 tons in the previous year. She said that the oversupply will likely persist at least until 2030. In 2030, supply is expected to be 390,000 tonnes and demand 264,000 tons. Indonesia, the world's second largest cobalt producer is planning to double its capacity by 2027, and does not plan to limit supply, said a government official this week. (Reporting and editing by Tony Munroe, Tom Hogue and Hongmei Li)
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Norway GDP growth faster than expected Q1
Statistics Norway (SSB), on Thursday, released data showing that the Norwegian economy's growth was faster than expected in the first quarter 2025. In the January-March timeframe, mainland GDP increased by 1.0% in comparison to October-December. The economists polled had predicted a growth of 0.6%. The Norwegian crown currency rose against the Euro to 11,62 at 0609 GMT, from 11,63 before the release of data. spring budget proposal The central bank of Norway had predicted that the economy on the Norwegian mainland would grow by 0.6% during the first quarter, compared to the last three months in 2024 when it contracted by 0.4%. Norges Bank kept interest rates the same last week On Hold Analysts unanimously predicted that the rate would reach a high of 4.50% in 17 years, reflecting an inflationary resurgence which has prevented policymakers from reducing borrowing costs. Despite the uncertainty surrounding future economic development, the central bank stated that the policy rate was likely to be reduced by 2025. The most common measure of the Norwegian economy's performance is Mainland GDP. This excludes oil and gas production which can have a volatile impact. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Louise Breusch Rasmussen)
Southwest Kansas wheat yield is estimated to be above average. Crop tour shows
On Wednesday, the second of a three-day annual tour in Kansas, crop scouts projected that the average yield of hard red winter grain in the southwest portion of the state would be 53.3 bushels/acre (bpa), an increase from 42.4 in 2024. The average yield for the same area in Kansas from 2019-2024, according to the Wheat Quality Council's tour, was 42.3 bushels/acre. The COVID-19 pandemic prevented the tour from taking place in 2020. Scouts sampled 211 Kansas fields between Colby, Kansas and Wichita. They reported that Kansas was on track for a more productive crop this year than previous years. However, some fields were damaged by disease and drought, resulting in lower yields during the final weeks before harvest. Scouts reported that the quality of wheat varied greatly across hundreds of miles between the southwestern corner and the south-center in Kansas.
In some fields, the lack of rain caused soil cracking and yellow curled leaves. Other fields were lush and nearly impenetrable. The scouts found that wheat streak mosaic was a virus spread by mites that causes yellow spots on the leaves. This can reduce crop yields. Scouts reported that the stress of drought and disease was more severe in the northwest of the state compared to the southwest and south center near Wichita where half of Kansas wheat is grown.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasted on Monday that Kansas will produce its largest wheat crop in the last four years. State is top U.S. Winter Wheat Producer, with an average annual production of 315,000,000 bushels over the last 10 years.
Experts who were on the tour stated that Kansas wheat production was still recovering after a disastrous 2023 season when about a quarter of farmers abandoned their crop due to drought damage. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 41% of Kansas winter wheat was in moderate drought compared with 23% on 3rd March.
Justin Gilpin is the Chief Executive Officer of Kansas Wheat. He said that the measurements taken this week could not fully factor in the unknowable toll of the prolonged drought conditions and widespread Wheat streak mosaic.
Gilpin stated that "a lot of us do not know what the final impact will be."
Mike O'Dea, a wheat broker at StoneX, said that on Wednesday "renewed concern about the disease pressure in Kansas" could have led to a rise in futures.
Farmers told Wednesday's tour that low wheat prices were the reason for the wheat being cut up and bundled into hay, to be used as cattle feed.
Gary Millershaski is the secretary-treasurer for U.S. Wheat Associates. Wheat Associates. He said, "I don't like to see good grain going to cows."
The tour will release the final Kansas yield forecast on Thursday. (Reporting and editing by Sandra Maler, Kate Mayberry, and Emily Schmall)
(source: Reuters)