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Sino-US trade talks and Chinese stimulus have boosted iron ore to a 2-week high.
Iron ore futures reached their highest level in almost two weeks on Wednesday, supported by China’s latest stimulus measures. However, gains were limited by cautious sentiment about a potential easing of U.S. - China trade tensions. The day-traded iron ore contract for September on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.35% higher, at 708 Yuan ($97.96), per metric ton. Earlier in the session, the contract reached its highest level since April 24, at 726 Yuan per ton. As of 0700 GMT the benchmark June iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange rose 0.61%, to $98.1 per ton. It had previously reached a peak of $99.85, which was a two-week high. Chinese authorities announced on Wednesday a range of stimulus measures, including interest rates cuts and a large liquidity injection. Beijing is intensifying efforts to mitigate the economic damage brought about by the US trade war. The magnitude of the stimulus package somewhat exceeded our expectations, and that is the main driver of the price strength," said an iron ore trader in Singapore. He requested anonymity because he was not authorised to talk to the media. But caution persisted despite the positive signals about the possible easing of global trade war. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Grer will meet China’s top economic official on Saturday in Switzerland. This could be the beginning of a resolution to the trade war that is disrupting the global market. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained some ground. Rebar gained 0.19%; hot-rolled coil climbed 0.34%; and stainless steel rose by 0.08%. Other steelmaking ingredients listed on the DCE, however, posted losses due to weak fundamentals. Coking coal and the coke both lost 0.77 and 0.66 percent, respectively.
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NEWSMAKER-China's trade tsar He Lifeng is at the forefront of US tariff talks
He Lifeng, a trusted confidant of Chinese president Xi Jinping, who has gradually built a reputation as a fixer among foreign investors, will be at the forefront in Saturday's talks aimed at breaking a deadlock on trade with the United States. After weeks of escalating trade tensions, the vice premier of Canada will meet with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent in Switzerland and Jamieson Greer as chief trade negotiator. He is the person who oversees U.S. China economic and trade relations. We interviewed 13 foreign diplomats and investors who met He in the last year. The interviewees described He's transformation from a Communist Party apparatchik who spoke no English and was reluctant to deviate from his prepared remarks to a confident man with a greater ability to accomplish things. According to an American businessperson who was briefed about the meetings, He impressed many of the world leaders that flocked to Beijing last month for a forum. The majority of people who spoke to He on the condition of anonymity did so in order to discuss their confidential interactions with him, He also has a vast regulatory oversight of China's sprawling finance sector. According to the'review of his public engagements, the vice premier held at least sixty meetings with foreigners over the last year. This is a steady rise from the 45 meetings he had between March 2023 when he became vice premier and March 2024. The Chinese State Council has not responded to a request by fax for comments on the talks. DÉFENDER STATUS QUO? Many of the interviewees said that despite the vice-premier's increased comfort in engaging with Western executives, He is not a policy pioneer. According to a businessperson who was briefed on last month's meeting, the vice premier's improved reputation among American executives is likely due to the fact that Chinese leaders seemed especially confident and predictable in the aftermath of the chaos in the U.S. In meetings with foreigners, he has repeatedly defended Beijing’s export-led strategy of growth. One American businessperson said that He, a supporter of boosting domestic consumption over manufacturing, is Xi's chief lieutenant in building a trillion dollar surplus. Three people said that he had, at times, repeatedly dismissed complaints about Chinese overcapacity. These are also shared by other countries Beijing is courting to find new ways of cooperation and export pressure valves. Wen-Ti Sung is a senior fellow with the Global China Hub of the Atlantic Council. She said that He would defend China's surplus on a daily basis. It's difficult to imagine He compromising on the trade deficit, a key issue for China's job-creation. The vice premier was at the forefront of China's recent outreach efforts to developed markets such as Japan and the European Union that were also affected by Trump's tariffs. After Switzerland, he will visit France for a dialogue at a high level. UNDERWHELMING START Liu He was the former head of the economics portfolio before He assumed his current position. A Harvard-educated English-speaking economist, Liu He negotiated a free trade agreement with the United States under the first Trump administration. The vice premier may have a Ph.D. in economics from Xiamen University but his domestic focus meant he had to learn a lot in order to be China's economic face in the world. According to a person who was present, some American executives were not impressed by He when he briefed on the results of an important economic policy meeting in July last year. A person claimed that the vice-premier, who according to party conventions, should retire in 2027 looked a little sluggish at the briefing where he had dozens of aides flanking him. He's predecessors, such as Liu and Wang Qishan were renowned for their eloquence, and a relatively informal demeanor. After a Japanese delegation raised concerns in February about Beijing's controls on rare earth exports and the safety for Japanese nationals living in China, the vice premier downplayed these issues. Businesspersons briefed about He's meetings in March described previous discussions with the vice-premier as "talking to ChatGPT." He said that the Chinese official has started communicating in a more Western-friendly way. This person, who met He several times, was impressed by He's ability, in a manner that officials not close to Xi could not, to explain Beijing’s economic policy, and to deliver on his promises of assistance. The source didn't provide any specifics. A second foreign official, who also met He in this year, said that the vice-premier was well aware of China's problems. These include deflationary forces and an ageing populace on top of tariffs and the real-estate crises. He provided a sophisticated assessment of these issues. The official also said that he appeared to be very confident in the prospects of Deepseek, a homegrown AI startup. "TYPICAL BUREAUCRATS" AND DEMOLISHER In his native Fujian Province, Xi was a local official and rose to power in the 1990s. Around that time, he became a trusted lieutenant to Xi and attended his wedding. In 2009, the official was transferred to Tianjin, a port industrial city. Locals nicknamed him "He the Destroyer" for launching a massive urban renovation campaign and costly infrastructure projects which gave the city an attractive facade but also pushed it further into debt. Alfred Wu, an expert on China at National University of Singapore said that He was focused on boosting the economy and "was particularly big on real estate and city redevelopment like many local officials of the time." Wu, who met He as a reporter in Fujian, called the official a "typical bureaucrat" and a "very typical protege of Xi Jinping." He added that his "number-one priority" is to implement Xi’s directives. This puts him in a more subordinate position. Reporting by Laurie Chen and Michael Martina, in Beijing; Additional reporting from Goh Kui Qing, in New York; Editing done by Katerina Ange, John Geddie, and Shri Navaratnam.
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He Lifeng, China's trade tsar, is at the forefront of US tariff discussions
He Lifeng, a trusted confidant of Chinese president Xi Jinping, who has gradually built a reputation as a fixer among foreign investors, will be at the forefront in Saturday's talks aimed at resolving a deadlock on trade with the United States. After weeks of escalating trade tensions, the vice premier of Canada will meet with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent in Switzerland and Jamieson Greer as chief trade negotiator. He is the person who oversees U.S. China economic and trade relations. We interviewed 13 foreign diplomats and investors who met He in the last year. The interviewees described He's transformation from a Communist Party apparatchik who spoke no English and was reluctant to deviate from his prepared remarks to a confident man with a greater ability to accomplish things. According to an American businessperson who was briefed about the meetings, He impressed many of the leaders of some the world's biggest companies when they flocked to Beijing last month for a forum. The majority of people who spoke to He on the condition of anonymity did so in order to discuss their confidential interactions with him, He also has a vast regulatory oversight of China's sprawling finance sector. According to the'review of his public engagements, the vice premier held at least sixty meetings with foreigners over the last year. This is a steady rise from the 45 meetings he had between March 2023 when he became vice premier and March 2024. The Chinese State Council has not responded to a request by fax for comments on the talks. DÉFENDER STATUS QUO? Many of the interviewees said that despite the vice-premier's increased comfort in engaging with Western executives he was not an innovator. According to a businessperson who was briefed on last month's meeting, the vice premier's improved reputation among American executives is likely due to the fact that Chinese leaders seemed especially confident and predictable in the aftermath of the chaos in the U.S. In meetings with foreigners, he has repeatedly defended Beijing’s export-led strategy of growth. One American businessperson said that He, a supporter of boosting domestic consumption over manufacturing, is Xi's chief lieutenant in building a trillion dollar surplus. Three people said that he had, at times, repeatedly dismissed complaints about Chinese overcapacity. These are also shared by other countries Beijing is courting to find new ways of cooperation and export pressure valves. Wen-Ti Sung is a senior fellow with the Global China Hub of the Atlantic Council. She said that He would defend China's surplus on a daily basis. It's difficult to imagine He compromising on the trade deficit, a key issue for China's job-creation. The vice premier was at the forefront of China's recent outreach efforts to developed markets such as Japan and the European Union that were also affected by Trump's tariffs. He will then travel to France, where he will hold a high level economic dialogue. UNDERWHELMING START Liu He was the former head of the economics portfolio before He assumed his current position. A Harvard-educated English-speaking economist, Liu He negotiated a free trade agreement with the United States under the first Trump administration. The vice premier may have a Ph.D. in economics from Xiamen University but his domestic focus meant he had to learn a lot in order to be China's economic face in the world. According to a person who was present, some American executives were not impressed by He when he briefed on the results of an important economic policy meeting in July last year. A person claimed that the vice-premier, who according to party conventions, should retire in 2027 looked a little sluggish at the briefing where he had dozens of aides flanking him. He's predecessors, such as Liu and Wang Qishan were known to foreign interlocutors because of their eloquence, and a relatively informal demeanor. After a Japanese delegation raised concerns in February about Beijing's controls on rare earth exports and the safety for Japanese nationals living in China, the vice premier downplayed these issues. Businesspersons briefed about He's meetings in March described previous discussions with the vice-premier as "talking to ChatGPT." He said that the Chinese official has started communicating in a more Western-friendly way. This person, who met He several times, was impressed by He's ability, in a manner that officials not close to Xi could not, to explain Beijing’s economic policy, and to deliver on his promises of assistance. The source didn't provide any specifics. A second foreign official, who also met He in this year, said that the vice-premier was well aware of China's problems. These include deflationary forces and an aging population on top of tariffs and the real estate crisis. He provided a sophisticated assessment of these issues. The official also said that he appeared to be very confident in the prospects of Deepseek, a homegrown AI startup. "TYPICAL BUREAUCRATS" AND DEMOLISHER In his native Fujian Province, Xi began to build his power as a local official during the 1990s and the early 2000s. Around that time, he became a trusted ally of Xi and attended his wedding. In 2009, the official was transferred to Tianjin, a port industrial city. Locals nicknamed him "He the Destroyer" for launching a massive urban renovation campaign and costly infrastructure projects which gave the city an attractive facade but also pushed it further into debt. Alfred Wu, an expert on China at National University of Singapore said that He was focused on boosting the economy and "was particularly big on real estate and city redevelopment like many local officials of the time." Wu, who met He as a reporter in Fujian, called the official a "typical bureaucrat" and a "very typical protege of Xi Jinping." He added that his "number-one priority" is to implement Xi’s directives. This puts him in a more subordinate position. Reporting by Laurie Chen and Michael Martina, in Beijing; Additional reporting from Goh Kui Qing, in New York; Editing done by Katerina Ange, John Geddie, and Shri Navaratnam.
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Port Sudan shook by explosions, army claims to have intercepted drones
Sudan's army claimed that its anti-aircraft system intercepted drones on Wednesday, which were targeting the largest naval base of the country in Port Sudan, the country's wartime capital. There were explosions heard in the city. It was not immediately known if they were near Flamingo's base. Port Sudan was the target of days of attacks, including drone strikes reported by Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. These assaults have destroyed the country's largest fuel depots as well as its main humanitarian aid gateway. Port Sudan has enjoyed relative peace since the outbreak of the civil war in April 2023 between the RSF and the army. After the RSF took over Khartoum, the city on the Red Sea Coast became the base of the army-aligned Government. The drone strikes in Port Sudan opened up a new front. They targeted the army's stronghold in eastern Sudan. This was after the RSF had been forced to retreat westwards in much of central Sudan in March, including Khartoum. (Written by Enas Alashray; edited by Christian Schmollinger & Andrew Heavens).
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BMW expects auto tariffs to drop from July, but sticks to its 2025 vision
BMW, the premium German carmaker, confirmed Wednesday its outlook for 2025. It said it expects some of the current tariffs on vehicle imports will decline starting in July. This is one of the most optimistic assessments of the prospects of the industry. The majority of BMW's competitors, including Mercedes-Benz and Ford, have pulled their forecasts for 2025, claiming that it is too difficult to provide a proper guide in light of the extensive import tariffs in America, the second-largest auto market in the world. BMW said that its March 2025 forecast, which included all tariffs announced to date, was still valid. It predicted earnings before taxes on par with last year, and an operating margin of 5-7% at its automotive division. BMW stated that it was only able to estimate the impact of tariffs on the current year, based on certain assumptions. However, the company expected "some tariff increases will be temporary with reductions starting in July 2025". The company's shares were expected to open 2% higher. This was also supported by a better-than-expected EBIT for the first quarter of 2,02 billion euros ($2.3billion) at its automotive unit. It came in over the 1,85 billion LSEG survey of banks and brokers. The unit's operating profit margin was 6.9%, down slightly from 8.8% during the same period last year but above the 6.3% LSEG survey forecast. BMW warned that the actual performance of its business could be different if tariffs were to increase or remained in place longer than expected. It also cautioned against the possibility of supply bottlenecks, particularly for certain parts and raw materials. Reporting by Christoph Steitz; editing by Kirstiknolle and Tomaszjanowski.
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Stocks rise in a tepid response to US-China talks
U.S. stocks futures jumped and the dollar rose Wednesday, on news of a meeting between top U.S.-China trade officials. However, Asian markets were cautious on prospects for a tariff deal ahead of a Federal Reserve rate decision. The U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated that the weekend meeting in Switzerland would be about deescalation. China, on the other hand, sounded more cautious and cited the proverb "actions speak louder than words" to explain its caution. S&P 500 futures and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both rose by about 0.6%, after both reversing earlier gains during the Asia session. Japan's Nikkei remained flat while blue chips in China rose by 0.4%. The hot rally in Asian currencies has cooled, with Korea's won falling sharply and China's yuan being weighed down by a rate reduction. In a recent note, analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said that the dollar was supported by the easing of trade tensions. "Today's meeting of the Federal Reserve could also be a source of support for dollar... if Powell adopts a hawkish tonality in order to demonstrate his independence from any political influence." After relatively strong U.S. labor data last week, the Federal Reserve will meet to set interest rate later that day. Expectations for cuts have been dialled back. The markets indicate that there is almost no chance for a move to be made on Wednesday, and that only 33% of the chances of a reduction in June have decreased from 64% one month ago. Last month, the dollar suffered a blow when U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell. He has since backtracked. India's rupee dropped a bit and Pakistani stocks fell after the most intense fighting in decades broke out between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. China announced a rate reduction, increased cash in the banking system, and opened a channel to allow insurance money into the stock market. However, the reaction was muted, as investors were waiting for fiscal stimuli and all eyes were on the U.S.-China negotiations. Stocks have been teetering higher for weeks in anticipation of a rapprochement, or a breakthrough, to reduce the tariffs. BMW confirmed on Wednesday its outlook for 2025, stating that it expects some of the global tariffs imposed on imports to be temporary. Gold is more than $100 per ounce lower than the record high set last month. Brent crude futures have been steady at $62.74 per barrel, despite a 16% drop since the announcement of tariffs. The euro was supported above $1.13, with German conservative leader Friedrich Merz being elected chancellor after his alliance with Social Democrats suffered a shock defeat in the initial round.
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London metals drop amid caution before US-China trade talks
Metal prices dropped in London on Wednesday, as investors were more cautious about the outcome of a meeting between U.S. trade officials and Chinese counterparts. This was due to investors' concerns over the economic stimulus measures taken by Beijing. As of 0342 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), was down by 0.7% at $9,469.5 per metric ton. The plan was to The meeting between U.S. officials and Chinese officials in Switzerland this weekend comes after months of increasing tensions, which have seen the duties on trade between two of the largest economies of the world soar above 100%. While the two sides will likely discuss lowering tariffs on both specific products and broader tariffs, traders are waiting to see what happens. The outcome of the trade talks is still unclear. "While we can't assume a positive outcome, we remain optimistic for meaningful progress in our relationship," said a trader. On Tuesday, U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he will be reviewing potential trade agreements over the next two week to decide which to accept. China's central banks said that to help the economy in the midst of the trade war it will, for the very first time, in 2025, reduce the reserve ratio requirement for banks by 50%, releasing about 1 trillion yuan worth of liquidity. Other London metals saw aluminium drop 0.9%, to $2.405 per ton. Zinc fell 0.4%, to $2.405, while lead dropped 0.2%, to $1.919; tin declined 0.9%, to $31,700, and nickel fell 0.1%, to $15,680. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most-traded contract for copper rose by 0.1%, to 77.770 yuan (10,761.63 dollars per ton), with the support of rapidly declining stocks monitored by the SHFE. SHFE aluminium fell 1.8% to 19.505 yuan per ton. Zinc was down 0.4% at 22,330 yuan. Lead was unchanged at 16,695 Yuan. Nickel was up 0.1%, to 124.690 Yuan. Tin was up 0.1%, to 260.560 Yuan. $1 = 7.2266 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Mrigank dhaniwala, Savio D’Souza and Violet Li)
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Oil prices rise as the market looks at US-China trade negotiations and lower US output
Investors focused on U.S. China trade talks and signs that U.S. oil production is declining. Brent crude futures rose 44 cents a bar, or 0.7% to $62,59 a bar by 0400 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 50 cents or 0.9% at $59.59 a gallon. The benchmarks fell to a 4-year low after OPEC+ decided to increase output. This fueled fears of an oversupply, at a time that U.S. Tariffs are increasing concerns about demand. Brent crude is trading higher on news that the U.S. will begin trade talks with China this weekend, extending a rally in oil, said commodities strategists from ING. "While negotiations could help improve sentiment on the oil market we will need to see substantial progress in lowering tariffs to increase the outlook for demand," ING said. In recent weeks, the lower oil price has prompted several U.S. companies to reduce their rigs. Analysts believe this will support prices by reducing production over time. Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, believes that the latest announcements suggest a decline in output over the next few months. Last month, we warned that the falling oil prices and decreasing drilling activity would increase the risk of U.S. output dropping. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday to report that crude stocks dropped by 4.5 millions barrels during the week ending May 2. The U.S. Government will release data about stockpiles at 10:30 am ET. ET (1430 GMT). The average expectation of the analysts polled is that U.S. crude stock will decline by 800,000 barrels for last week. The signs that demand was improving also helped to support prices. China's consumers increased their spending on May Day and when the market returned from the holiday. Analysts expect companies in Europe to report a 0.4% increase in their first-quarter earnings. This is an improvement from the 1.7% decline analysts expected just a week earlier. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates in the United States unchanged on Wednesday, as tariffs continue to roil economic prospects. Reporting by Nicole Jao from New York, and Jeslyn Lerh from Singapore; Editing and rewriting by Stephen Coates and Kate Mayberry
Fake news about the Myanmar earthquake: Making money from a disaster
Misinformation floods social media after disasters
Viral posts bring in ad revenue for platforms and creators alike
The 'Wild West" has very few safeguards to prevent fake news
By Lin Taylor
Be it viral images or fake rescue stories, these schemes take advantage of the increased fear and desire for news following any disaster or war.
People should assume that there are a lot false reports out there. Darrell West is a senior technology research at Brookings Institution.
According to the state media, the death toll in Myanmar's earthquake of March 28 has reached more than 3,600. Another 5,000 people were injured, and hundreds are still missing.
The earthquake was the latest blow to the impoverished Southeast Asian nation of 53 million people, after a coup in 2021 that brought the military back to power and destroyed its economy following a decade of growth and tentative democracy.
Digital Insight Lab is a grassroots group that runs Facebook pages to counter misinformation and hate speeches in Myanmar. It said it has seen viral posts that claimed to show the destruction of the disaster, even though they were either shot in Syria or Malaysia, and/or created by artificial intelligence.
"Many reports reuse photos and videos taken from incidents that are unrelated, while others use AI-generated content in order to create false narratives," explained Windy, a research officer who went by a pseudonym.
Digital experts report that misinformation and disinformation is common on social networks following disasters. This includes false videos, fake images or false narratives regarding rescue efforts.
When you are misinformed, it can cause panic and delay evacuation. It can undermine your trust in emergency services. "It can be very distracting," says Jeanette Elsworth. She is the head of communications for the U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
False rumours were spread after Hurricane Helene devastated parts of the United States in the past year. The government was accused of funneling federal disaster funds illegal migrants.
Fraudsters uploaded videos of tsunamis from Japan and Greenland to claim that they were real-time footage taken in the disaster zone.
MISSINFORMATION PAYS
According to the tech policy group What To Fix, more than $20 billion will be made by 2024 from advertising revenue shared between social platforms (including YouTube) and content creators.
According to founder Victoire RIO, who also spent time in Myanmar researching misinformation, content creators are using platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and Tik Tok for a portion of the revenue generated by ads that appear with their posts.
She said that the model encourages creators to create viral posts even if the content is false or generated by AI, as the more views they get and the more money they earn, the better.
Rio stated that fraudsters were able to earn up to tens thousands of dollars in previous crises, such as the coup of 2021 in Myanmar.
According to a 2021 study conducted by the fact-checking company NewsGuard and the analytics firm Comscore, misinformation websites earn $2.6 billion in digital advertising every year.
According to What To fix, Meta, the company that owns Facebook, Instagram and other social media platforms, controls more than 60% the market for social advertising. In 2024 it had over 3.1 millions creator accounts, an increase of 55% from the previous year.
Rio stated that "in the current context of Myanmar, the vast majority of disinformation being circulated is motivated by financial gain."
Meta has said that they remove posts which violate their policies. They work with partners to debunk any false claims, and then move the content further down in the feed so "fewer people will see it".
Meta ceased its fact-checking programs in the U.S. and began managing political content.
TikTok has said that it does not allow misleading or false content to be posted on its platform. It also removed incorrect posts as soon as the Myanmar earthquake occurred, and directed users to reliable sources.
The company said that it had trained moderators, fact-checking partners and other staff in more than 50 languages.
Rio stated that the internet shutdowns in Myanmar, which prevented information from reaching the public, also fueled misinformation.
"You've got a large community of people who are using Facebook to search for information from outside Myanmar." Rio explained that these people are especially vulnerable to misinformation, as they desperately seek information.
Htaike Htaike, the director of the Myanmar Internet Project which tracks the country’s internet blackouts said that the situation put lives at risk.
Aung said that fake posts are frequently at the top of newsfeeds due to their clickbaity and the way social media algorithms work. This makes it more difficult for people to access quality information.
It's a major hindrance to many aid efforts. At this moment, access to information is vital.
Reduce Risks
Eliska Pirkova is a senior policy analyst with digital rights group Access Now. She said that platforms should do more than rely on community groups for false content to be reported after it has been broadcast.
"Information is always vital, but especially in times of crisis." She said that (platforms have) very high due diligence obligations.
Local civil society organizations often take on the responsibility of flagging or escalating cases. They are already stretched thin because they have to deal with crises on the ground.
The government has also been encouraged to take action.
The United States is accelerating its dominance on the global market by removing some protective barriers.
Elsworth of UNDRR said that it would take more than Big Tech or the government to combat fake news. He urged local media, religious leaders and civil society to all play a part.
(source: Reuters)