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Semafor reports that US will continue Iran strike, but only on energy sites.
Semafor, citing an official from the United States, reported that the United States will 'continue their strikes' on Iran. The pause only applies to attacks against Tehran energy sites. This was during what President Donald Trump described as a "productive" meeting with unidentified Iranian officials. Trump had earlier on Monday postponed by five days a plan of hitting Iran's energy infrastructure and power plants. Later, Iran denied having engaged in negotiations with the United States. A U.S. official said to Semafor that the five-day ceasefire only applies to their energy sites. It is not in the navy, ballistic missiles or the defense industry base. He told the news agency that "the initial initiatives (of Operation) Epic Fury" will continue. Could not verify the report immediately. The White House and the U.S. The State Department, the 'Pentagon' and the White House did not respond immediately to an emailed request for comment. The Semafor Report also stated that Israel did not participate in Washington's discussions with Tehran. Reporting by Ruchika Khanna in Bengaluru, Editing by Lincoln Feast
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Oil resumes its climb after fragile relief rally as shares are jittery
Oil prices rose and stocks were on tenterhooks on Tuesday, as investors worried about the Middle East war were not satisfied with President Donald Trump's decision to postpone the bombing Iran's electricity grid. U.S. Treasury Yields increased and the dollar regained ground in a retracement of a relief rally that swept the markets overnight, after Trump extended his Saturday ultimatum to Iran for it to reopen Strait of Hormuz by 48 hours. Trump cited "productive" discussions Tehran. There was a lot of uncertainty as the world continued to deal with an energy crisis, while Iran denied having engaged in any negotiations with the U.S. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that the underlying situation was still fragile or flammable. It doesn't appear that all of the parties are on the same page... Trump may talk all he wants, but the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and will remain closed until the Iranians are?on the exact same page. That's the problem." The European markets were off to a sombre start. EUROSTOXX futures fell 1%, while FTSE Futures dropped 0.47%. S&P 500 Futures dropped 0.56%, and Nasdaq Futures lost 6%. Asia shares, meanwhile, edged up in a rally to catch up with global counterparts. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by 1.3% while Tokyo's Nikkei gained?0.95%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.6%. The Israeli military reported that Iran launched waves of missiles towards Israel. Semafor, citing an?official from the U.S., reported that the U.S. would continue to?strike Iran with a pause only for attacks on Tehran's oil sites. Oil prices rose again on Tuesday, despite the ongoing war and the fact that shipments of liquefied gas and oil through the Strait of Hormuz are still restricted. Brent crude futures rose 3.6% to $103.58 per barrel, reversing a 10% decline from the previous session. U.S. crude climbed 4.12% to $81.76 per barrel. Thomas Mathews is the head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics. He said that even though it will be over soon, energy prices could remain higher and bond and equity prices lower for longer. DOLLAR PARES LOSES, YIELDS RISE U.S. Treasury Yields climbed on Tuesday, after a steep fall overnight. Little clarity about a possible end to the conflict has left traders pricing in an increasingly hawkish outlook for global interest rates. In Asia, the two-year yield increased by 7 basis points to 3.9015 percent while the benchmark 10-year rate was up over 4 basis points to 4.3797 percent. Investors have abandoned hope of further monetary ease globally in favor of pricing in rate increases across the majority developed nations. Futures indicate that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep rates at current levels this year. The Bank of England and European Central Bank, however, are expected to increase rates. Kit Juckes is the head of FX Strategy at Societe Generale. He said: "Unless the Strait of Hormuz (is reopened) very quickly, it's more likely than not that we will see higher interest rates and a significant increase in oil importer's costs in the next few weeks." The U.S. Dollar recovered from its Monday fall, pushing the Euro down by 0.24%, to $1.1587. Sterling fell 0.5%, to $1.3389. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar each fell by more than 0.5%. Spot gold fell 1.3% to $4,350.51 per ounce on expectations that U.S. interest rates will continue to rise. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Rae Wee)
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AMBITION EUROPE - A little relief from Trump
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The relief rally that was sparked by President Donald Trump's decision to postpone his threat to bomb Iran’s power grid lasted only one day. As 'Tehran' denied it was in talks with Washington, and as?global energy supply remained crippled on Tuesday, the risk sentiment in Asia quickly soured. Brent crude futures rose back to $100 per barrel. Asian shares recovered slightly, in a catch up rally with their global counterparts overnight. However, U.S. futures and European futures declined in choppy trading. The dollar recovered its losses, and U.S. Treasury yields began to climb again. Trump has added five more days to his ultimatum to Iran that it reopens the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours. However, the situation is still tense. There are few signs of a resolution to the Middle East conflict. The Israeli military said that Iran fired multiple missile waves at Israel. This triggered air raid sirens across the country, including Tel Aviv. In addition to scrambling for supplies, governments all over the world are also looking at ways to reduce demand and secure energy. In a post posted on X by Prime Minister Sanae Takayi on Tuesday, Takaichi stated that Japan will begin releasing oil held in joint stockpiles by other producing nations by the end March. The South Korean president Lee Jae Myung has called for an energy-saving campaign nationwide, and said that public institutions will reduce their use of cars. Three industry sources claim that traders have offered Iranian oil at a higher price to Indian refiners after Washington 'temporarily lifted sanctions' to ease the energy shortage. Data on Tuesday revealed that Japan's core inflation rate slowed to below the central bank target of 2% in February, for the first time in four years. This makes it more difficult for the Bank of Japan to communicate as they try and raise the still low borrowing costs. Also due on Tuesday are flash PMI readings from the Euro?zone, UK and U.S. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday. - UK, euro zone, U.S. flash PMIs (March) ECB's Pedro Machado and Piero Cipollone speak at separate events Barr, Feds speaks
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Australia and EU sign trade agreement, seeking to reduce reliance on China in terms of critical minerals
Australia and the European Union have signed a deal on Tuesday after eight years of negotiations. The agreement removes tariffs from almost all European goods, and nearly 'all' exports of critical minerals from Australia. Some Australian agricultural products, such as beef and lamb meat, will be subjected to export quotas. Australian farmers have sharply criticized the pact, claiming that it provides "subpar access" to the bloc. Both sides intensified their talks after the Trump administration increased U.S. Tariffs, and the West became more concerned about China's dominance in rare earths and critical minerals. Both sides signed an agreement to strengthen security and defence relations. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said that although Australia and the?EU are geographically separated from each other, they could not be more similar in their worldview. We are getting closer with these new dynamic partnerships in security, defence and trade. The agreement will eliminate over 99% tariffs on EU exports to Australia. This will save companies 1 billion euros ($1.2billion) in duty fees each year. EU exports to Australia will now grow up to 33% in the next decade. The Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said at a news conference that this agreement will be worth approximately A$10 billion ($7billion) to the Australian economy annually. He added that the removal of nearly all import tariffs on critical minerals from Australia into the European Union?will help stabilize global supply chains. Von der Leyen, Australia's member of parliament, told the Australian Parliament that "getting China right" is a crucial strategic imperative for both Europe and Australia. This is why realizing our vital minerals partnership is critical to our success. We cannot be too dependent on one supplier, which is why we are so interdependent. The agreement also shows Europe's increasing engagement in the Indo-Pacific region, following trade agreements with India and Indonesia signed in September. AUSTRALIA AGREE TO BEEF QUOTAS Australian tariffs on European wine, sparkling wines, fruit, vegetables, and chocolates will be zero from the first day, and for cheeses older than three years. EU will eliminate tariffs on many agricultural products, but certain key exports may be subject to quotas. The EU will remove tariffs on many agricultural products, but some key exports will be subject to quotas. Hamish McIntyre of the National Farmers Federation said that Australian farmers were "extremely disappointed" by the conclusion of negotiations for a free-trade agreement with 'the European Union' (EU), which ended without any commercially significant gains in agricultural market access since Australia last walked out from negotiations. After a relatively brief phase-out, certain EU geographical?indications names, such as Pecorino romano or Ouzo will be protected. Some producers of goods such as feta can continue to use these names provided they clearly label the origin. Australia has also agreed to raise the threshold of the luxury vehicle tax for EU electric cars to?A$120,000 (83,600 dollars), which means that about 75% EVs in the region are exempt from tax. The trade between the two countries is substantial, with EU firms exporting goods to Australia worth 37 billion euros in 2025 and services worth 28 billion euros in 2023. Official data revealed that the EU as a whole was Australia's third largest two-way trade partner as well as its sixth largest export destination in 2024. In 2024, the bloc was Australia's largest source of foreign investments.
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Oil prices rebound as shares jittery and relief rally weakens
Oil prices and stocks rose in a choppy?trade as U.S. president Donald Trump's decision to postpone the bombing Iran's grid did not placate investors worried about the ramifications from the Middle?East conflict. The U.S. Treasury yields rose and the dollar gained lost ground, in a retracement of a relief rally that swept the markets overnight, after Trump extended his Saturday ultimatum to Iran for it to reopen Strait of Hormuz by 48 hours. Trump cited "productive" discussions Tehran. There was a lot of uncertainty as the world continued to deal with an energy crisis, while Iran denied having engaged in any negotiations with the U.S. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that the underlying situation was still fragile or flammable. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and will remain closed until the Iranians are on the same page. That's the problem. Asia shares rose on Tuesday, catching up to their global counterparts. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by 1% while Tokyo's Nikkei gained 0.8%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.4%. The U.S. Futures market fell after Wall Street closed higher overnight. Nasdaq Futures fell 0.6% while S&P500 futures dropped?0.5%. The FTSE Futures also fell 0.8% and the EuroStoxx 50 futures 0.9%. Brent crude futures rose 4.2% to $10421 per barrel, reversing a 10% drop from Monday. Meanwhile, U.S. Crude rose 4.3% to $91.93 a barrel. Two tankers bound to India passed through the Strait of Hormuz Monday. The war continues, however, to disrupt the traffic in the waterway. This has caused the suspension of shipments of one-fifth of all oil and gas liquefied around the world. Thomas Mathews is the head of markets at Capital Economics for Asia-Pacific. He said that even if the war ends soon, energy prices could remain higher and bond and equity values lower for a longer period than they would have otherwise. DOLLAR? GETS IT MOJO BACK The U.S. Treasury yields increased on Tuesday, after a steep fall overnight. Little clarity about an end to this conflict has left traders pricing in more hawkish interest rate expectations for the global economy. In Asia, the two-year yield increased by 8 basis points to 3.9136%. The benchmark 10-year rate was also up 4 bps. Investors have abandoned the hope of further monetary easing and are now pricing in rate increases across developed nations. Futures indicate a slight chance of an increase in the U.S. Federal Reserve's rates this year. The Bank of England and European Central Bank, on the other hand, are expected to increase rates. Kit Juckes is the head of Societe Generale's FX strategy. The U.S. Dollar rebounded on Monday from its?fall, driving the euro down by 0.27%, to $1.1585. Sterling fell?0.45%, to $1.3394. The dollar rose 0.14% against the yen to 158.63. Data released on Tuesday revealed that Japan's core inflation rate for consumers fell below the Bank of Japan target of 2% in February, the first time since nearly four years. This complicates the efforts of the bank to justify future interest rate increases. Spot gold fell 1% to $4,364.09 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Rae Wee)
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Japanese stocks lose gains due to Middle East War concerns
Japanese shares retreated on Tuesday as investors weren't convinced that U.S. president Donald 'Trump's remarks about delaying the targeting of 'Iran's energy infrastructure would lead to an end to the Middle East conflict. The Nikkei was up 0.3% at 51,681.73 by 0216 GMT. It had risen as high as 2.3% in the previous session. The Topix index rose 1.1% to 3,526.07 after jumping 2.6% earlier in the session. Trump postponed his threat to bomb Iran’s power grid due to what he called "productive talks" he had with unidentified Iranian officials. Iran denied that it was in talks with the U.S. This pushed oil prices up. Tomoichiro Kubota is a senior analyst at Matsui Securities. He said, "Few seem to believe that the remarks can help calm down the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and many see them as a temporary delay tactic." When the market is rising, people are quick to profit. Since its close on February 27, before the outbreak of war, the Nikkei has fallen by nearly 12%. Nikkei 225 ascended on Tuesday and 27 declined. Sumitomo Pharma, Japan's largest oil refiner, rose 4.9%. Shares of energy-related companies, such as?Eneos Japan's largest refiner, also increased. Tokio Holdings' daily limit was 6,857 yen. Berkshire Hathaway announced that it would be buying a 2.4% stake in the Japanese insurance company for $1.8 billion, as part of a new strategic alliance. Japan Steel Works was the Nikkei's largest percentage decliner, with a drop of 4.7%. Kawasaki Heavy Industries, with a loss of 3.9%, and IHI Corp, which fell by 3.5%, were also amongst those who suffered. Reporting by Satoshi Sugyama, Editing by Sherry J. Phillips and Mrigank. Dhaniwala
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WGC: Additional central banks will buy gold to counter geopolitical risk
A World Gold Council executive said on Tuesday that central banks, who had been 'absent' from the market this year, are expected to purchase gold as a hedge to geopolitical and dedollarisation risks. Shaokai fan, the global head of the world banks at the WGC, said that in recent months, central banks from Guatemala and Indonesia, as well as Malaysia, have all purchased gold. This is either after a long break or for the very first time. He said, "We've seen a phenomenon in the past few months, where new central banks or central banks who have been inactive for a while, enter the gold market." He said: "I believe that this trend will continue well into 2026." Fan added that some central banks also buy gold from small-scale producers in order to support local industry, and to prevent gold sales going to "bad actors". Fan said on the sidelines Minerals Week, in Canberra, that gold prices fell by over $1,000 per troy-ounce this month. Historical trends indicate it is partly due to margin calls and related selling. Gold's record high was only a few dollars shy of $5,600 at the end of January. Fan said that during the gold slump in October, central bankers stocked up, but it is too early to tell if this has happened with the current rout. He added that central bank 'demand for gold' may be declining because higher prices deter new purchases and increase the weight of existing gold holdings in relation to total reserves. The WGC said that it expects central banks' purchases of gold to drop to 850 tons this year from 863 tons by 2025. This is despite the fact that their buying has remained high compared to pre-2022 levels. According to WGC figures last year, central bank purchases accounted for around 17% of the total demand. (Reporting by Melanie Burton; Editing by Kevin Buckland)
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CORRECTED - Shares rise, oil prices rebound as Trump extends his Iran ultimatum
After U.S. president Donald Trump delayed the bombing of Iran’s power grid on Tuesday, fears of an even greater energy shock were eased. The markets were on a roller coaster at the beginning of the week, after Trump extended his Saturday deadline for Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours by five days, citing constructive talks with unidentified Iranian official, which Tehran denied. It's a negotiation tactic... "I don't believe that the U.S. government wants to see oil priced at $150, because they caused it themselves," said Rajeev de Mello. Chief investment officer at GAMA Asset Management. The reversal of the market on Monday was quickly acted upon by traders, who sent crude futures plummeting and shares surging while the dollar, government bond yields, and other currencies fell. The majority of the movement carried over into the Asian trading session of Tuesday. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 1.3% while shares in Australia increased 0.7%. Japan's Nikkei?advanced over 2% and reversed most of the 3.5% drop on Monday. U.S. Futures are little changed from Monday's closing cash session. The oil prices edged up on Tuesday, after a 10% drop in the previous session. Brent crude futures rose 1% to $100.94 per barrel while U.S. oil prices climbed 1.9% to $89.84. The movement was volatile, however, as the war in the Middle East continued and the prospect of higher energy prices for longer lingered. Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone. Price action could continue to be choppy until Friday's new deadline... Participants must decide whether they see the extension as one that will bring a deal closer or simply prolong uncertainty. Expectations of a PARING RATE hike The yields on U.S. Treasuries stabilized on Tuesday, following a steep fall overnight. This was in line with the decline in global bonds yields as investors reduced their bets that major central banks would increase interest rates aggressively this year. The yield on the two-year bond was unchanged at 3.8498% after falling by more than 6 basis point in the previous session. The benchmark 10-year rate was at last 4.3400%. Although traders have priced in the small possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve might hike rates?this year they still expect them to be held. Market expectations have been reduced for the European Central Bank to raise rates. Kit Juckes is the head of FX strategy at Societe Generale. The U.S. Dollar was in the red after falling on Monday as an increase in risk sentiment decreased demand for safe-haven currencies. The?euro was last trading at $1.1603, up 0.4% overnight. Sterling held at Monday's 2-week high and last traded at $1.3420. The dollar rose 0.04% to 158.54 yens. Data released on Tuesday revealed that Japan's core inflation rate for consumers fell below the Bank of Japan target of 2% in February, the first time since nearly four years. This complicates the efforts of the bank to justify future interest rate increases. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,431.65 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Rae Wee)
Fake news about the Myanmar earthquake: Making money from a disaster
Misinformation floods social media after disasters
Viral posts bring in ad revenue for platforms and creators alike
The 'Wild West" has very few safeguards to prevent fake news
By Lin Taylor
Be it viral images or fake rescue stories, these schemes take advantage of the increased fear and desire for news following any disaster or war.
People should assume that there are a lot false reports out there. Darrell West is a senior technology research at Brookings Institution.
According to the state media, the death toll in Myanmar's earthquake of March 28 has reached more than 3,600. Another 5,000 people were injured, and hundreds are still missing.
The earthquake was the latest blow to the impoverished Southeast Asian nation of 53 million people, after a coup in 2021 that brought the military back to power and destroyed its economy following a decade of growth and tentative democracy.
Digital Insight Lab is a grassroots group that runs Facebook pages to counter misinformation and hate speeches in Myanmar. It said it has seen viral posts that claimed to show the destruction of the disaster, even though they were either shot in Syria or Malaysia, and/or created by artificial intelligence.
"Many reports reuse photos and videos taken from incidents that are unrelated, while others use AI-generated content in order to create false narratives," explained Windy, a research officer who went by a pseudonym.
Digital experts report that misinformation and disinformation is common on social networks following disasters. This includes false videos, fake images or false narratives regarding rescue efforts.
When you are misinformed, it can cause panic and delay evacuation. It can undermine your trust in emergency services. "It can be very distracting," says Jeanette Elsworth. She is the head of communications for the U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
False rumours were spread after Hurricane Helene devastated parts of the United States in the past year. The government was accused of funneling federal disaster funds illegal migrants.
Fraudsters uploaded videos of tsunamis from Japan and Greenland to claim that they were real-time footage taken in the disaster zone.
MISSINFORMATION PAYS
According to the tech policy group What To Fix, more than $20 billion will be made by 2024 from advertising revenue shared between social platforms (including YouTube) and content creators.
According to founder Victoire RIO, who also spent time in Myanmar researching misinformation, content creators are using platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and Tik Tok for a portion of the revenue generated by ads that appear with their posts.
She said that the model encourages creators to create viral posts even if the content is false or generated by AI, as the more views they get and the more money they earn, the better.
Rio stated that fraudsters were able to earn up to tens thousands of dollars in previous crises, such as the coup of 2021 in Myanmar.
According to a 2021 study conducted by the fact-checking company NewsGuard and the analytics firm Comscore, misinformation websites earn $2.6 billion in digital advertising every year.
According to What To fix, Meta, the company that owns Facebook, Instagram and other social media platforms, controls more than 60% the market for social advertising. In 2024 it had over 3.1 millions creator accounts, an increase of 55% from the previous year.
Rio stated that "in the current context of Myanmar, the vast majority of disinformation being circulated is motivated by financial gain."
Meta has said that they remove posts which violate their policies. They work with partners to debunk any false claims, and then move the content further down in the feed so "fewer people will see it".
Meta ceased its fact-checking programs in the U.S. and began managing political content.
TikTok has said that it does not allow misleading or false content to be posted on its platform. It also removed incorrect posts as soon as the Myanmar earthquake occurred, and directed users to reliable sources.
The company said that it had trained moderators, fact-checking partners and other staff in more than 50 languages.
Rio stated that the internet shutdowns in Myanmar, which prevented information from reaching the public, also fueled misinformation.
"You've got a large community of people who are using Facebook to search for information from outside Myanmar." Rio explained that these people are especially vulnerable to misinformation, as they desperately seek information.
Htaike Htaike, the director of the Myanmar Internet Project which tracks the country’s internet blackouts said that the situation put lives at risk.
Aung said that fake posts are frequently at the top of newsfeeds due to their clickbaity and the way social media algorithms work. This makes it more difficult for people to access quality information.
It's a major hindrance to many aid efforts. At this moment, access to information is vital.
Reduce Risks
Eliska Pirkova is a senior policy analyst with digital rights group Access Now. She said that platforms should do more than rely on community groups for false content to be reported after it has been broadcast.
"Information is always vital, but especially in times of crisis." She said that (platforms have) very high due diligence obligations.
Local civil society organizations often take on the responsibility of flagging or escalating cases. They are already stretched thin because they have to deal with crises on the ground.
The government has also been encouraged to take action.
The United States is accelerating its dominance on the global market by removing some protective barriers.
Elsworth of UNDRR said that it would take more than Big Tech or the government to combat fake news. He urged local media, religious leaders and civil society to all play a part.
(source: Reuters)