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Natural gas and soy prices plummet as China reacts
The oil price plunged to its lowest level since 2021 on Friday, and other commodities such as natural gas and soya beans also fell. This was due to China's retaliation against the aggressive tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. Beijing announced an additional 34% levy for all U.S. products, retaliating after Trump announced that a 10% minimum duty would be applied to most U.S. imported goods. The duties were significantly higher for dozens countries, including China. Bjarne Shieldrop is chief commodities analyst for SEB. He said, "This is China's first explicit escalation, and they are not backing off, they have upped the game." He expects further retaliation by Trump. As tensions increased, fears grew that tariffs would lead to a trade war worldwide. This could impact the economy and reduce demand for certain commodities. The U.S. levies excluded energy. However, the retaliatory action by China includes all U.S. products, including export restrictions on certain rare earths. According to Kpler data and EIA, the U.S. exports a lot of energy to China. Wall Street benchmarks were heavily sold, with the Dow Jones on course to reach a correction and the Nasdaq set to enter a downturn. Brent futures dropped $5.29 or 7.5% to $64.85 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures declined $5.57 or 8.3% to $61.83 per barrel. The benchmarks for oil were set to the lowest close in the last four years, since the beginning of the pandemic. Gas prices have also fallen in Europe and Asia. The European gas price plunged to its lowest level in more than six months. The Dutch front-month contract fell by 3.02 euros or 7.7%, at 36.45 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh), or $11.78/mmBtu. The Asian spot prices for liquefied gas (LNG), too, remained at the lowest levels in over six months. SOYBEANS and GRAINS The Chicago Board of Trade Soybean Futures fell by more than 2 percent on Friday, as China's tariffs against U.S. products are expected to stop trade between the two countries. China is the biggest buyer of U.S. soyabeans. CBOT soybeans fell 2.3% to $9.88 per bushel by 1304 GMT, after falling to a three-month low price of $9.84. Prices of grain also dropped. CBOT Wheat fell 1.9% to $5.26 per bushel, while Corn lost 1% at $4.52-3/4 per bushel. Tariffs on Chinese grain and soybeans will prevent sales to China. "There will be no U.S. grain or soybean sales to China until the tariff issue is resolved," said one European trader. The trade war that began during Trump's first presidency in 2018 has already put pressure on the demand for U.S. agriculture products. Beijing raised tariffs last month on U.S. goods worth $21 billion in response to Washington’s earlier round on Chinese products.
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China retaliates against Trump tariffs by dumping oil and stocks
The Nasdaq Composite is heading towards a bear market as China retaliated against U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs, and concerns about a trade war escalated. The fact that the U.S. economy created far more jobs in March than was expected did not brighten the mood. China responded to Trump's new tariffs by announcing that it would add an additional 34% tax on American goods. This confirms investor fears of a global trade war. Trump imposed a 10% tariff Wednesday on the majority of U.S. imports, and even higher levies against dozens of other countries. This is the most severe trade barrier in over 100 years. Rick Meckler is a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey, an investment family office. "The details are getting more and more complex, which is dangerous for the companies. Investors rushed to government bonds for safety, and traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut rates. Companies that have exposure to China fell as well. Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon.com were all down sharply. Globally, bank shares fell as concerns about a recession grew. S&P 500 Financial Index was down by 5.1% on Saturday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,230.72, or 3.04% to 39,315.21, while the S&P 500 declined 190.89, or 3.54% to 5,205.34, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 604.27 points, 3.59% to 15,954.66. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 30.80 points or 3.81% to 776.84. The pan-European STOXX Index fell 5.2%. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.8% overnight for a second session running. U.S. crude fell 8.5% to $61.24 per barrel. Brent dropped 7.66%, falling to $64.77 a barrel. After the non-farm payroll data, the U.S. Dollar recovered against the Euro and reduced losses versus yen. The dollar index rose 0.5% Friday, after its worst fall since November 20,22 on Thursday. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 last month. Economists predicted payrolls would rise by 135,000. Last week, the euro fell 0.47% to $1.0998. The dollar fell 0.4% against the Japanese yen to 145.47. Investors are unsure where to invest their money after years of massive flows into U.S. stock markets and an booming American economy. This helped to drive a strong rush towards the government bond markets. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bill, which is considered to be a benchmark in the U.S., fell by 12.2 basis points from 3.86% to 3.933%. Prices and yields are inversely related. Traders expect central banks to adopt more accommodating policies. Money market futures are pricing in a cumulative Federal Reserve rate cut of 110 basis points by the end this year. This is compared to about 75 basis points a week ago. The traders also increased their bets for Bank of England and European Central Bank decreases. Meckler stated that "a lot of investors who I have spoken to said, in this type of environment, we should just go cash and wait,"
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Trump's tariffs are forcing trading partners into a corner
The only option for U.S. trade partners in the current trade war with Donald Trump is to sue. Most countries that are hit by tariffs of 10%-50% on their exports, to the dominant economic superpower in the world, lack the firepower or political will to fight back, according to government officials, economists, and trade experts. The vast majority of Trump's trading partners didn't immediately respond and instead indicated their willingness to negotiate with him a compromise that would save face. Even those who have counter-measured left the door open to negotiations. China, who on Friday imposed an additional 34% tariff on all U.S. products, and Canada, which took limited retaliation are expected to negotiate sooner or later. This is because U.S. consumer spending is so significant globally - two thirds larger than EU consumption according to World Bank statistics. Governments have few options other than talking to protect their export industries or broader economies. Spending on state aid, or broader economic stimuli -- Spain announced on Thursday a EUR14 Billion ($15.5 Billion) aid package -- or looking for greener pastures in trade are some of the options. German officials are looking at Mexico, Canada and India. It will be difficult for some countries to pay for the subsidies, and other financial assistance required to avoid economic downgrades, warnings of profit, and layoffs. Economists anticipate Beijing will increase fiscal stimulus in order to support the economy. The country sells more than 400 billion dollars worth of goods to the United States each year. According to Chinese policy advisors, it will also attempt to develop other markets for export. One Chinese advisor, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject, said: "We must strengthen our coordination with ASEAN and Japan, South Korea, EU, UK." Trump's "Liberation Day", or "Tariff Day", tariffs have increased the tax on Chinese exports imposed since Trump was inaugurated in January to 54%. The trade advisor said that despite China's economic arsenal -- its financial power, dominance of vital mineral and metal production in advanced industries, and centrality to the global supply chain -- a negotiated ceasefire is expected. It could be a long time, given Washington's animosity towards Beijing. However, there are rumors that Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping may meet in the United States by June. Economic shocks may bring countries without China's influence to the table earlier. India, which was hit with a 27 percent tariff, has already begun talks and does not intend to retaliate, according to a government official. Government sources say that India made concessions before the new tariffs were announced and is willing to reduce tariffs for more than half of U.S. imported goods worth $23 billion as part of a first phase deal. Vietnam is also expected to prioritize negotiations with little room for trade diversification or subsidies. Leif Schneider, the head of the international law firm Luther, said that it could use the exposure some U.S. companies have in Vietnam to exert pressure on the Trump administration. He added that "Vietnam is likely to prioritize negotiations in order to avoid an economic crisis." It is the sixth largest exporter to the United States despite a 46% tax, due to its popularity as an alternative to China for manufacturers looking to diversify away from China. Southeast Asia as a whole has nowhere to go. The efforts of the government to increase trade with China and Japan, as well as other neighbours, have resulted in an alphabet soup trade groupings that facilitate trade. However they fall short of compensating a U.S. shock. China, Japan, and South Korea met for the first time in five years to discuss regional trade before Trump announced his decision. There is some doubt that it will be successful, especially since these three countries are not net contributors of global demand, but exporting giants. THE LAYOFFS STARTED The European Union is already feeling abandoned by Trump over security. It said that the common market, which has 450 million members, was prepared to retaliate to Trump's tariff of 20% against the EU and to also look at other markets. Robert Habeck, German Economy Minister, said that "Forging Alliances... is the Order of the Day." He singled out Mexico, Canada, and India as places where closer trading relations would be beneficial. But trade deals can take a long time -- time that Europe, and other countries, don't have. After 25 years of talks, the EU and South America’s Mercosur bloc announced a free-trade agreement in December. Trump's tariffs are reciprocal and take effect Wednesday. German economists believe that it takes time to rebuild an economy in order to deal with global protectionism. They say that structural reforms, like more competition and technology investment, are preferable to government stimulus. The economist Robin Winkler of Deutsche Bank said that fiscal and monetary policies could not do much to counter the trade shock in the short-term. The German bank Berenberg claims that a significant part of the U.S. new tariffs could be reversed in negotiations. Europe would offer concessions, such as more contracts for U.S. defense firms. Canada has been spared any additional tariffs, but is still reeling after the 25% U.S. tariffs imposed on its steel, aluminium and auto exports. Canada spends a lot of money on subsidies that are funded by its own tariffs in retaliation, but it still feels the pain. Stellantis NV, a European automaker, announced on Thursday that it would halt production at a Canadian plant. Companies have also reported that they've already begun layoffs, and are shifting their focus to new markets. Some countries have complained to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), but trade experts consider that a weak option, especially since Trump paralysed the WTO's top appeals court in his first term. The Geneva-based body is not seen as an appropriate venue to renegotiate tariff disputes. "If they continue to push protectionism and stick to this one-sided view, I don't think they will be returning to the WTO anytime soon for multilateral negotiation," said Marco Molina of the consulting firm Molina & Associates, and former deputy permanent rep of Guatemala at the WTO. "That's a shame, because the WTO is designed to deal with issues like this."
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Andy Home: Trump, tariffs, and tin.
The LME Base Metals Complex got a sneak preview of what to expect. The threat of similar tariffs on copper caused a transatlantic price gap that was unprecedented. The micro tariff turbulence has now been accompanied by macro tariff turmoil, as the markets are terrified of a full blown trade war. This week, the London Metal Exchange index of base metals fell 6% as reciprocal tariffs became a reality. Only one metal has been spared the tariff tsunami. Tin continues to perform better than the rest of LME's pack, boosted by its own supply-chain chaos. Shocks Rock Tin - Supply LME's three-month tin increased by 25% in the first quarter 2025, surpassing gold's incredible run. Tin traders have been on a roller coaster ride due to a series of supply shocks. The market fell on the news that the giant Man Maw Tin Mine in Myanmar was reopening after an 18-month hiatus. It then rebounded when Alphamin Resources said it would close its Bisie mine, in the Congo, due to the increasing insurgency. Tin has soared even more after the devastating earthquake in Myanmar that casts new doubt on Man Maw’s return. Investors are rushing to get in on the action. The long positions of funds have reached record highs. The LME stock market is slipping and the time-spreads are tightening. This adds to the volatile mix. The bulls should also note that China has a plentiful supply of tin. Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a 47% rise in stocks this year, and the 9,872 metric ton stock is at its highest level since September. MINDING THE COPER GAP Since February, when Trump launched a national-security investigation into copper imports, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on copper trading. Arbitrage has been played out between the CME U.S. Customs-cleared Price and the LME Global Price. The market has tried to guess when and how much copper tariffs would be implemented. The CME's record premium over LME Copper has led to a massive movement of metal into the United States. It remains to be determined how much metal makes it through U.S. Customs before tariffs become effective. CME prices that were at record highs and the physical market disruption initially revived bullish sentiment, but LME copper is now below $9,000 per ton as concerns grow over the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs on global manufacturing. ALUMINIUM PREMIUM ACTION Tariff trades have been reflected in premiums for regional markets. Last month, the U.S. Midwest Premium widened to over $900 per ton above the LME Basis Price as the market priced the increase in U.S. Import Tariffs from 10% up to 25%. The European premiums have dropped sharply in contrast to the U.S., suggesting that physical metal has already been diverted away from this market. Aluminium was expected to be a big seller at the beginning of this year, but market signals have been mixed and the price has fallen in retaliatory tariff reactions. NICKEL ATTENDS INDONESIA Nickel spent the first quarter of 2025 stuck in a wide range between $15,000 and $17,000 per ton. As overproduction in Indonesia floods the refined nickel chain, the price of nickel has fallen. From 11% in 2024, the amount of Chinese Nickel stored at the LME has increased to over 50%. This metal is a product of Indonesian raw material that was processed in China. Indonesia is now producing its own refined steel, which can also be found in LME sheds. Nickel will continue to be oversupplied until Indonesia limits its production growth. The question is if the Indonesian flood will continue to wash over the refined metal segment or whether it will revert back to the lower-grade class II segment. All depends on Indonesian margins. Heavy Stocks Weigh on Heavy Metal Talking about high stock prices. Last month, someone cancelled 120,000 tons LME lead stock. However, there was no response from the market in terms of price or time spreads. Nobody thinks that the physical metal market is short of this much metal. Lead is experiencing the type of LME warehouse arbitration that comes from oversupply and elevated stock levels, which are now 331,000 tons, up from 21,500 tonnes at the beginning of 2023. Lead's price has remained stable despite the large inventory, but this could be due to its better condition than zinc. ZINC MINE REBOUND Zinc is consistently underperforming the rest of LME since the beginning of the year, despite the fact that exchange stocks are falling steadily. The market seems to be more interested in the zinc raw material narrative than its nuanced refine metal dynamics. In 2024, the mined zinc production will fall by 2.8% on an annual basis. The raw materials supply chain will tighten to the point where smelter charges are negative in the second part of the year. In 2025, restarts and new mining are expected to produce a significant recovery. This new wave of mining supply appears to be gaining momentum. The smelter treatment charge, which had fallen to zero in 2024 due to a lack of mined concentrates, has now risen to $35 per ton. The demand for zinc was flat last year. With little hope of a recovery within the global construction sector, which is a major use for zinc, it's expected that higher mined production will lead to an oversupply on the refined metal market. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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Tariff uncertainty causes Canada to lose jobs for the first time since 2022 in March
Data released on Friday showed that Canada's employment total fell in March and the unemployment rate increased. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the subsequent implementation of them forced some companies to stop hiring and resulted in layoffs. Last month, Canada lost a net of 32,600 positions, its first decline in over three years. Statistics Canada reported that the decline was primarily due to a sharp drop in full-time employment. This was after a relatively flat growth of jobs in February, and a strong gain of 211,000 jobs between November and January. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7% from 6.6% one month earlier. Andrew Grantham is a senior economist with CIBC Capital Markets. He wrote in a recent report that "the wheels could be falling off the Canadian labour market." Analysts polled had predicted a net gain of 10,000 jobs and estimated that the unemployment rate would rise to 6.7%. The majority of economists expected that the job market would start to show signs of weakness as companies held off on hiring and investing due to the uncertain situation with tariffs. U.S. president Donald Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on Canadian aluminum and steel in March, and increased import duties for cars and parts due to non-U.S. contents and non-compliance of a free-trade agreement. He announced reciprocal tariffs that would affect all U.S. trade partners. Analysts have predicted that these reciprocal tariffs, and the retaliation of many countries, will hit the global economic system hard, sending many countries into recession. Unemployment may peak. The Canadian dollar is trading at 1.4194 U.S. dollars, or 70.45 U.S. Cents, down from 1.4194 the day before. This represents a steep increase in the probability of another Bank of Canada interest rate cut on April 16. It was only 25% the day before. Last month, it was reported that Canadian job losses were already underway in certain sectors. Economists believe that layoffs are only going to increase as reciprocal tariffs between trading partners take effect. Grantham stated that "we continue to expect further weakness in the employment sector, especially in sectors directly affected by U.S. Tariffs. This could lead to the unemployment rate reaching slightly over 7% in the second half." Statscan reported that the increase in the unemployment rate or the number unemployed people as a percent of the workforce was the first since November. Statscan reported that there were 1.5million unemployed in total in March. This is an increase of 36,000 for the month, and 167,000 over the past year. Last month, the Bank of Canada stated that Canadians are more concerned about their financial and job security as a result of trade tensions and plan to spend more carefully. Statscan reported that 44% of the unemployed had been laid off within the past 12 months. 18,4% of these people last worked in construction, and 12.4% in wholesale or retail. It clarified, however, that the layoff rate for March - the percentage of employed people who are unemployed in the month following a layoff -- was 0.7%. This is similar to pre-pandemic levels. The Canadian central bank closely monitors the average hourly wage of permanent employees to gauge inflationary trends. In March, it was 3.5%, up from 4% in February. Reporting by Promit MUkerjee, Editing by Dale Smith Mark Porter and Paul Simao
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EU carbon market emission drop by 5% in 2024 on track to 2030 target
The European Commission announced on Friday that carbon dioxide emissions under the EU's emissions trading scheme (ETS), which regulates the emissions of greenhouse gases, will fall by 5% by 2024 due to reductions in the electricity sector. The EU ETS regulates around 45% of the greenhouse gas emissions of the European Union. It is the flagship program of the 27-nation EU to combat global warming through charging for the rights to emit CO2. Carbon allowances are a way for manufacturers, power companies, and airlines to pay the carbon they emit. The EU Commission stated that "ETS emission levels are now about 50% below 2005 and on track to reach the 2030 target of 62%." The biggest fall in emissions was seen in the power sector. Emissions dropped by 12% compared to 2023 levels. The Commission stated that "This reduction was due to a rise in electricity production by renewables of 8%, nuclear by 5% and a decline in coal and gas by 8%." The emissions from industry were stable. A 5% reduction in the cement sector was offset by an increase of 7% in the fertilizer segment. The Commission attributed the increase in aviation sector emissions to an expansion of geographic coverage, including non-domestic flight. Last year, the ETS was extended to include maritime emissions with 72 million tonnes of CO2 being reported by 2024. Benchmark prices for the EU ETS dropped around 4.5% to 63 Euros per metric ton on Friday afternoon, in line with sharp drops in other markets following China's announcement of retaliatory duties on U.S. products, fueling global recession concerns. Prices have dropped by around 25% from their peak in January of this year. (Reporting from London by Susanna Twiddale, additional reporting by Sudip K-Gupta, Bart Meijer and Alex Richardson; editing by Alex Richardson and Franklin Paul).
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Nasdaq to confirm bear-market as Trump tariffs cause recession fears
Investors fled riskier assets as they feared that tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump would spark a global trade war, and plunge the economy into recession. Trump slapped on Wednesday a 10% tariff base on all imports into the United States, along with heavy levies against tech production hubs like China, Taiwan, and Vietnam. This deepened a selloff that was triggered by fears about AI spending, which had sent Nasdaq to correction territory at the beginning of last month. After China announced 34% additional tariffs on U.S. products, the index fell 3.8% last Friday. The Nasdaq composite index is down around 20% from the record high closing price of 20,173.89. According to a commonly used definition, a bear market is defined as an index that closes at least 20% below its previous record high. Tariffs and the fear of retaliation from other trading partners has weighed heavily on the markets. The benchmark S&P 500 Index has fallen 14.9% since its record closing high of 6,144.15, and is just 5% from confirming that a bear market exists. The Dow Jones was set to confirm a corrective move on Friday after a drop of 10% from its closing record high. Apple, the world's largest manufacturer of consumer electronics, has seen its share price fall by 12.5% since U.S. tariffs were announced. Meanwhile, China, which is Apple's main manufacturing base and production base faces an aggregate tariff rate of 54%. Other big tech stocks are also down. Microsoft is down 4.3%, including Thursday's losses. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is down 5.3%. Meta Platforms is down 12.6%, and Amazon has lost 13.3% over the same time period. Tesla shares have fallen 37% since the close of Wednesday as the electric vehicle pioneer deals with protests over billionaire Elon Musk's political involvement and slowing sales. Nvidia, the chipmaker that has been the most successful in the AI boom, shed 11.2% as it grappled with concerns over slowing data center spending. A Magnificent 7 ETF, which tracks the tech-heavyweights that have fueled Wall Street's record rise in recent years, has fallen about 27% since its all-time December high. (Reporting and editing by Sriraj Kalluvila, Bengaluru)
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What strategic minerals has China restricted in its exports?
China added several rare earth elements to the export control list of China on Friday. Its retaliation The prospect of the U.S. being cut off from vital minerals, whose supply is controlled by China, has been raised in response to President Donald Trump's proposed tariff package. The ban on certain items Seven elements of the universe This is just the latest example of China's ability weaponize its dominance of the mining and processing a variety of minerals that are vital for everything from smartphones, electric car batteries and infrared ammunition to smartphones. Western companies have been forced to adapt their business practices due to these restrictions After Friday's announcement, supply chains are likely to gain new momentum. Beijing has restricted the use of some other minerals since 2023. TUNGSTEN, INDIUM, BISMUTH, TELLURIUM AND MOLYBDENUM China has imposed export restrictions on Five metals Early February, just after President Donald Trump's first 10% tariff was implemented on Chinese products, many industries, including defence, clean energy, and others, began to use the technology. Export licences are required for 20 products relating to tungsten, molybdenum, tellurium and bismuth. The curbs did not go as far as outright bans. They were more targeted and limited to certain metals like molybdenum. BATTERY AND LITHIUM PROCESSING ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY China proposed in January to restrict exports of certain technology used to manufacture cutting-edge components for batteries and to process lithium and gallium, two critical minerals. The announcement didn't specify when the proposed amendments, which were available for public comments until early February this year, might come into effect. Since the proposal was made, at least one company stopped exporting the products listed. ANTIMONY, GALLIUM, GERMANIUM Last December, Beijing Washington has stepped up its crackdown on China’s chip industry. As a result, Washington banned the export of three crucial minerals to the United States. China has gradually introduced export licensing for the three metals over the past 18 months, but the outright ban is only applicable to the United States. Exports of antimony, which is a strategic metal that's used in solar power equipment, munitions and flame retardants, had only just resumed three months after the export licenses were implemented. China controls the global supply of these three metals, and mines and refines up to 90% of the minerals. RARE EARTHS MAGNIFIER TECHNOLOGY By December 2023, China will ban the export of technology for making rare earth magnets. This ban is in addition to the existing one on the technology used to separate and extract the critical materials. Rare earths is a grouping of 17 metals which are used to produce magnets for electric vehicles, windmills, and electronic devices. While common in the earth's crust, China has mastered the technically difficult and environmentally-harmful refining process. China produces 90% of the world's refined products. GRAPHITE By October 2023, China will require export licenses for certain graphite products in order to protect its national security. China is the top producer and exporter of graphite in the world. It also refines over 90% of all graphite to a material used in almost all EV batteries.
Prince William of the UK takes his Earthshot Prize on a trip to Brazil
Prince William of Britain announced on Friday, in the presence of celebrities and soccer players, that he will take his annual award ceremony for a multi-million dollar prize for environmental protection to Brazil this coming year.
In 2020, the heir to the throne announced the Earthshot Prize with the goal of making significant progress towards solving environmental problems in a decade.
The "moonshot project" of former U.S. president John F. Kennedy, which led to 1969's lunar landing, is a nod to this award, which seeks to find innovative solutions to climate change and other environmental issues. Five winners will receive 1 million pounds ($1.3million) each for their projects.
The awards ceremony for this year will take place shortly before the UN Climate Summit COP30, which is also taking place in Brazil in Nov.
William announced in a video that accompanied the announcement, "I am pleased to announce that we will be in Brazil by 2025."
"We need to be optimistic now more than ever. I think Brazil is the perfect example of that. I can't even believe we have reached half-way in 10 years."
The previous award ceremonies were held in London and Boston. They were supported by philanthropists and global organisations.
The Earthshot video also featured the actress Cate Blankhett, the model Heidi Klum and Brazil's most-capped soccer player Cafu.
Beckham stated, "I am so, so excited about (Brazil), where nature and culture are intertwined." (Reporting and editing by William James; Michael Holden)
(source: Reuters)