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The real enemy of US inflation is diesel, says MORNING BID EUROPE
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The week has started with a mixed bag. While European and Wall Street futures barely moved, Asian shares were led higher by tech. Semiconductor stocks helped the Nikkei rise by 2%, and?South Korea?s Kospi rose around 3% to 6,900. Goldman Sachs has predicted a 75% increase in the Kospi, but this is a call that's been made for years. The fact that the U.S. has a holiday on Monday might make it easier to buy tech shares without fear of Wall Street crashing everything. The AI craze has also distracted from the deadlock that is?the Gulf, where Tehran announced it would announce a restricted area outside the Strait of Hormuz within the next few days after U.S.?forces struck three Iranian tankers. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles on two U.S. Navy vessels. Brent crude is up by 0.6% or so to $96.85 per barrel. U.S. crude has risen to $92.10. Diesel prices are not happy news, as they reached record highs in the last week. Diesel is the fuel most important for transportation, shipping, agriculture and manufacturing. The inflationary pulse is raising the stakes ahead of the U.S. CPI report for August, which will be released on Friday. Any?rise in core price inflation above 0.2% could put pressure on the Federal Reserve this month to raise rates. Fed funds futures have a 57% probability of a September rate hike, 70% for an October move and are fully priced for a December rate increase. Donald Trump would not welcome a high CPI. He threatened last week to stop trading with countries that have a surplus of trade with the United States if the Federal Reserve did not lower interest rates. But Europe is not immune to political problems. The far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, won the state elections held in Saxony-Anhalt, though they fell short of a majority. The Euro is not changing much at the moment, $1.1608. However, German?bunds may be under pressure if it looks like AfD will actually take power. As the ECB will most likely raise rates by 2.50% at its meeting on Thursday, the focus will be on the comments made about the possibility of a further tightening. Most analysts think this is the final hike in the cycle but the markets have already priced at least 2.75%. The dollar has remained flat at 156.21?yen after falling over 2% in the previous week, amid all of the?chatter about a possible more hawkish Bank of Japan. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact - EU Sentix Investor Confidence for September, final Q2 GDP & employment German industrial production for July UK house prices and BRC Retail Sales
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Scientists and divers concerned about'slumping' corals in South Korea
Ko Myeong -hyo was captivated by the vivid colours and vibrant life of South 'Korea soft corals six years ago when she began diving near the coast of Jeju Island to harvest fish for sale. It was disorienting to watch the coral garden collapse and turn white. This is after two years of higher temperatures and more harsh weather caused by climate change. I was worried that the entire sea could collapse. This year the "slumping phenomenon" is again visible, according to the Paran Ocean Citizen Science Center. The center is a group that monitors the soft corals on the island, which are listed by UNESCO. They do this mainly around the uninhabited islets located south of Jeju. The group claims that roughly half of a cluster near the island of Beomseom is struggling. Soft corals are dependent on fluid pressure within to maintain their upright position. Changes in the environment can cause this pressure to be disrupted, causing them to collapse or sag. Researchers Kim Taihun and Kim Yu-seong said that corals can recover partially if another large'slumping" occurs, but then some will break off, and the rest will deteriorate. This cycle keeps repeating itself, and their ability to recover keeps decreasing. Kim and Anna Beate Jost (a colleague from the Korea Institute of Ocean -Science and Technology, KIOST) documented Jeju’s soft coral collapse event in 2024 for the first in a journal article published in May. Korea Heritage Service (which manages the soft-coral colonies designated as a national landmark) said in an email that it had monitored the situation over the past year and would continue to do long-term research on the causes of the changes. The Oceans Ministry which is responsible for marine protected species, such as soft corals and other areas, has announced that it will conduct a detailed investigation in order to determine the extent of damage. EL NINO MAY WORSEN THE EVENT THIS YEAR Kim said that this year's event was similar to the one of 2024. However, it could get worse if high water temperatures continue through September and if El Nino weather phenomena triggers typhoons or heavy rains. He called for a quantitative and consistent monitoring of the loss in soft corals due to slumping. Corals have been affected by climate change around the world, but the Great Barrier Reef in Australia has received the most attention. This year, a record heatwave has drenched the Korean Peninsula while heavy rains have lashed the South. Researchers say that such weather conditions and water flowing from China's Yangtze River, which affects the salinity of the area, could trigger "slumping". Jeju’s waters provide a safe haven for soft coral communities that are sensitive to environmental conditions, and live on the border of acceptable conditions at the northernmost limit in coral distribution of the East China Sea. Soft corals are the nursery for Jeju's marine eco-system, and they live in Jeju Island Biosphere Reserve (a UNESCO listed reserve). Yoon Sanghoon is an environmental expert from Paran. He said that the seaweed and coral seas are the foundational ecosystem of Jeju's marine eco-system. If this base ecosystem collapses there is a possibility that the entire marine eco-system could?collapse. Weather authorities report that marine heatwaves in Korea have lasted almost four times as long, or 83.3 days. RIPPING IMPACT Paran was formed in 2023, by Jeju residents who were 'concerned about marine changes.' It brings together office workers, traditional divers, and documentary filmmakers, all of whom flock to the island for monthly dives. Scientists can use the photos and documents they take to document any changes. Ko, who is a Jeju third-generation "haenyeo", or "seawoman", can dive as deep as 8 m (26 feet) using only her breath. However, when diving deeper into coral reefs, she uses an oxygen tank. Son Choon Sook, 70, a mother of a diver who started diving 45 years earlier, says that the warming waters have changed the seabed. She said, "I worked on the sea for 45 years and earned money. I also sent my children to school with it." "Now that the catch has dried up, it makes me sad." She said that the smaller catch in the past few years is due to summers where the water was too warm for the species to reproduce. Her workday, which used to be five hours, has been reduced to three, partly because there are fewer fish to collect, but also to improve her health. Ko says that her recent summer dives have caused her to worry again. She added, "Rather than seeing beautiful coral shapes I feel as though I am now seeing more sick coral."
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Imports of crude oil from China remained weak in August. Can this trend continue? Russell
China's crude oil imports by sea increased in August compared to July, but were still nearly 40% below levels prior to the Iran conflict. According to Kpler, China's largest oil importer saw seaborne arrivals increase from 6.93 million barrels a day in July to?7.14 million bpd in August. August's imports fell by 4.27 % below the average of 11,41 million bpd during the three months preceding the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, which took place on February 28. China is absorbing the majority of the Middle East's lower crude oil volumes, as its exports are falling due to the restricted flow through the Strait of Hormuz. While there are disagreements over the exact amount of crude oil and refined product that is getting through the narrow waterway, it's certain that the number is well below the 20 million bpd prior to the conflict. Asia's seaborne crude imports in August were 22,64 million bpd. This was down from 23.40 millions bpd a month earlier, but still 4.29 million below the 26.93million bpd average for the three-month period ending in February. The decline in Asia's seaborne?oil?imports is only 20,000 barrels per day more than China's arrivals. The?amount of the drop surprised most participants in the crude oil market. They expected Beijing to reduce its imports as a response to higher prices due to the conflict with Iran. China is known to cut imports during price surges, but boost them when prices drop. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose 75% since the beginning of the conflict, reaching a four-year peak of $126.41 per barrel on April 30, a price that was unprecedented in the past. On September 4, they moderated their price to $96.28 per barrel, but it is still above the level that many Chinese refiners are comfortable with. China's refiners may be looking to secure cargoes to avoid having to dip into their inventories. IRAN, RUSSIA FLOWS Answering that question involves several factors. First, China's smaller independent refining companies are losing their access to Iranian crude because the U.S. blockade prevents any new Iranian crude from leaving the Gulf. The oil in tankers is also delivered and depleted. These refiners will either need to pay more or reduce their processing rates for the cargoes they receive from other suppliers. China buys more oil from Russia, a country also under Western sanctions. However, this puts China in direct competition with India, as refiners from the South Asian nation have replaced Middle East crude with Russian crude. Kpler data shows that China's seaborne exports to Russia in August reached 1,68 million bpd, up from 1,40 million bpd during July, and the highest since March. China also purchases about 1 million barrels per day via pipelines. A factor to consider is whether China’s refiners are trying to export more refined fuels. This is because of the high profit margins that are currently available in Asia on products like diesel and gasoline. Exports of middle and light distillates reached 963,000 barrels per day in August. This is up from the average of 713,000 barrels per day for the three-month period prior to the beginning of the Iran War. The increase in light and middle distillates in August 'almost exactly matches that of crude imports. This may be just a coincidence but it illustrates the larger point that, if China increases its product exports, then it will also have to increase its crude imports. China's decision not to import crude oil has played a significant role in preventing the price of oil from rising since the beginning of the Iran War. Its lack of exports from April to June is another factor that keeps fuel prices high in Asia. It may be a better option for the market to have China buy more crude oil but also export more fuel. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Iran's government will raise fuel prices for heavy users
Iran will increase the price of gasoline starting Tuesday for those who use more than 110 litres of fuel per month, according to a government spokesperson. Fatemeh Mohajerani, in comments reported by the state media, said that the price for the first and second quotas (which include 110 litres) will remain the same, but that the price for the third quota would be increased to 100,000 Iranian Rials per litre. This is equivalent to around?4 U.S. Cents at the current free-market price. The government discussed and delayed the increase in the price of?Iran’s gasoline, which is among the lowest in the entire world. They were concerned that it would trigger new protests. Iran saw widespread protests over the same issue in 2019. According to Mohajerani, the higher fuel prices will only affect those who use more than 110 litres of fuel per month. This is because "current conditions" are responsible for this. She added that other motorists could still purchase up to 60 litres of fuel at a rate of?15,000 per litre. They can also buy an additional 50 litres for?30,000 per litre. Iran?partially increased the price?"of its subsidized gas?for the majority of users in December as the OPEC Member sought to control the rising fuel demand.
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Brazilian court suspends licences for Sigma Lithium Mine
Documents seen by show that a Brazilian judge has ordered the suspension of mining and environmental permits at Sigma Lithium’s Grota do Cirilo Mine. The Federation of Quilombola Communities of Minas Gerais filed a civil lawsuit on Friday, claiming that the project of the miner was in the immediate influence of the Bau Quilombola Community. Quilombolas, or traditional communities of African descent were founded by people who fled slavery. The state protects their territories and requires more licensing for any projects that may impact them. The Judge Antonio Lucio Tulio de Oliveira Barbosa stated that there was enough evidence to show the Bau territory "fell within the area of influence" for the project, which triggered obligations, including the?free, prior?and informed consultation?with the community. The judge stated that there was a risk to harm the community as the mining complex of Sigma carried out "constant earthmoving and blasting just a few kilometers from the traditional territories." The judge cited studies that indicated the territory was about 2.7 km (1.7 miles), well within the threshold of 8 km, which triggers a more extensive process. Sigma has argued that the project is outside of the impact zone. The court ordered an independent georeferencing expert to review the distance between the project's territory and Quilombola. The decision also bars Minas Gerais from granting any new environmental licenses and imposes a fine on Sigma for continuing its operations. The'mine, Sigma’s only productive asset has a capacity of 330,000 tons of Lithium Oxide Concentrate on an annualised base. Sigma failed to respond to an outside of normal business hours request for a comment.
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Four killed in Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon
Lebanese Health Ministry: Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed four people on Sunday, including two women. Israel was retaliating for drone attacks by Hezbollah, it claimed, within areas that its troops occupied. Israel's military operates in what they have declared a "security zone" in southern Lebanon, despite a June ceasefire mediated by the United States. The health ministry of Lebanon said two men died in a village?on the border of the area occupied by Israeli forces, and two women in Arab Salim which is?well north of the occupied zone. Israeli military issued an online warning for evacuation at 6 am local time (0300 GMT). The warning was for areas near a building that Israel said would be struck because Hezbollah used it. Six?others were injured, including two girls. The office of President Joseph Aoun in Lebanon called the strikes on Sunday, which destroyed a hospital and damaged a building belonging to the Finance Ministry, a "dangerous escalate" that was directed at "pure civilian administrations and hospitals". It said that "President Aoun holds the Israeli side responsible for the ongoing escalation and calls on the United States to take immediate actions to stop these violations, and hold perpetrators accountable." Israeli military claimed that its targets included Hezbollah weapon storage facilities, as well as a command center inside an old hospital. The Israeli military also claimed that it had used precision munitions, aerial surveillance and other methods to minimize civilian injury. The evacuation alert issued on Sunday is only the second since the ceasefire was announced in June. The first online evacuation order was issued on 5 August for residents of Mansouri near Tyre. Israel had dropped leaflets in the village a week before, warning residents to evacuate ahead of any strikes. The health ministry reported on Saturday that Israeli strikes without evacuation warnings killed four people and injured 23 others in southern Lebanon. Israeli military claimed that these strikes targeted Hezbollah weapon storage facilities. Hezbollah stated on Saturday that Israel’s continued escalation was aimed at putting pressure on the Lebanese government, which had been in direct talks with Israel under U.S. sponsorship -- negotiations that Hezbollah's Iran-backed group rejected. Since March 2, when Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel to support Iran, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed more than 4,300 people.
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OPEC+ maintains oil production policy for October
OPEC+ said that it would not change its oil production policy for 'October' at a meeting held on Sunday. The group must first agree to new quotas in order to decide the next steps. The Iran War continues to disrupt oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz. This limits OPEC+’s influence on prices and market shares. In August, OPEC+ agreed ?its production boost for September, completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in ?2023. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, despite the production increases agreed, are still far below their targets due to the war. OPEC'S POWER LIMITED BY IRAN CONFLICT Jorge Leon, of Rystad energy, said that "OPEC+ has a very limited influence over the oil market." The group may change its production targets on paper but cannot guarantee the barrels produced will reach the market. The focus is now shifting away from the monthly adjustments of production and to the more important debate about 2027. OPEC+ has another layer of production cutbacks in place that will cover most of the members of the group of 21 countries until 2026. Before the group decides on how to unwind the production cuts and return to the market, they need to review the oil production capacity of members to establish baselines for 2027, which will form the basis of quotas. Sources have said that this debate is more likely to happen in 2026, and OPEC+ will probably pause their output increases during the 'fourth quarter. Sources earlier said that the statement made on Sunday did not mention policy beyond October. In recent years, only the seven OPEC+ members who met Sunday, plus the United Arab Emirates, until it left OPEC in may, were involved in monthly production decisions. The next meeting of the seven countries will be held on October 4, 2018.
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Sources say that OPEC+ will maintain its oil production policy on Sunday.
During a Sunday meeting, two sources familiar with the discussions said that OPEC+ will not change its 'oil production policy' for October, because the group must first agree on new quotas. The meeting is taking place 'as the Iran War continues to disrupt oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz - limiting OPEC+’s influence on prices and market shares. The group's decisions on supply have had limited influence on the market, unlike in the past. In ?August, OPEC+ agreed its production boost for September, ?completing a phased rollback ?of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with its allies including Russia, has agreed to increase production, but the group still falls far short of its target due to the war. OPEC+ has a second layer of production reductions in place that will cover most of the 21-country group's members until 2026. Before deciding how to return to market and unwind cuts, OPEC+ must review member's oil production capacities to establish quotas for 2027. Sources earlier said that this debate is expected to happen in 2026, and that OPEC+ will likely pause its output increases during the fourth quarter.
UN weather agency: Heat waves and wildfires threaten air quality
The United Nations weather agency warned on Monday that pollution from heat waves and wildfires could undermine global efforts to improve the air quality and protect human health.
The World Meteorological Organization, in its annual report on climate and air quality, said that air pollution and climate changes are closely related and should be addressed through coordinated policies rather than isolated ones. The World Meteorological Organization warned that it would be more difficult to meet the World Health Organization air quality guidelines in the future because of the increased likelihood of extreme wildfires.
WMO's?report? stated that wildfires have become a major source of air pollution, despite the fact that regulations in many developed nations have been enacted to reduce emissions from industries and transportation.
Lorenzo Labrador is the scientific officer for the WMO. He said that no matter how clean a city or region may be, if there's a lot of pollution caused by wildfires it could negatively affect air quality.
The report emphasizes the increasing impact of fine particulate material, also known as PM2.5 and ground-level Ozone, pollutants that are linked to respiratory disease and cardiovascular diseases. The report calls for better monitoring of aerosols and pollutants, including microplastics and black carbon.
Extreme heat and wildfires have ravaged parts of Europe this year, including Spain France and Greece. WMO said that extreme heat is becoming more frequent, intense, and lasting as the earth warms.
According to the new report, PM2.5 concentrations will be above average in 2025 in parts of Russia, western-central Africa, and northern Canada due to increased fire activity. Meanwhile, northwestern Spain is a hotspot following late summer fires.
The report cites a study that found extreme fire-smoke incidents have tripled?globally?since the 1990s. This may?have contributed?to nearly 100,000 deaths annually?between 2010 and 2018?
Labrador added that the inhalation of particulate matter from wildfires can cause a body-wide inflammation, which may lead to pulmonary diseases.
(source: Reuters)