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The year begins with the warmest January, despite the shift to cooling La Nina

Scientists from the European Union said that last month was the warmest January in history, continuing an extreme streak of global temperatures despite the shift to the cooling La Nina climate pattern.

In a monthly bulletin, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service C3S said that January continued a trend of extreme heat. During the past 18 months, global temperatures have averaged more than 1,5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.

This was despite the fact that the world has shifted from its warming El Nino pattern, which helped to make 2024 the warmest year ever recorded, and turned towards its cooler La Nina equivalent, which involves cooling of equatorial Pacific water, and can curb temperatures.

The fact that we are still experiencing record temperatures without the influence of El Nino, said Samantha Burgess. She is the Strategic Lead for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (C3S), which operates the C3S Service.

Burgess said that El Nino reached its peak more than a calendar year ago.

The average global temperature for January was 1.75C warmer than it was in pre-industrial time.

Copernicus estimates that La Nina is not fully developed and the world currently exists in neutral conditions. Data models can differ, and U.S. scientists indicated last month that La Nina had developed.

Burgess stated that even if La Nina fully emerges, its cooling effect might not be enough for a temporary reduction in global temperatures. These are also affected by other factors, such as the extreme heat experienced in other ocean basins and the main drivers of climate change, emissions of heat trapping greenhouse gases.

She said that the burning of fossils fuels was the biggest contributor to the warming climate.

Scientists from Berkeley Earth and UK Met Office expect 2025 to rank as the third warmest year in history - colder than 2024 or 2023 due to the shift toward La Nina. However, there are still uncertainties about the development of the phenomenon.

The average global sea surface temperature in January was the second highest on record, only exceeded by January 2024. Reporting by Kate Abnett, Alison Withers and Aiden Lewis; editing by Aiden Lewis

(source: Reuters)