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Trump's oil-tariffs boost European and Asian refiners
Analysts and market participants said that Donald Trump's tariffs on Canadian oil and Mexican oil will give European and Asian refineries an advantage over their U.S. competitors. White House officials confirmed that Trump ordered tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10% on Chinese goods starting Tuesday in response to a national crisis over fentanyl. They said that energy products imported from Canada would be subject to a duty of only 10%, while Mexican energy imports would be subject to a full 25%. Sources in the industry said that the tariffs on two of the biggest sources of U.S. imported crude will increase costs for the heavier crude grades U.S. refining plants need to produce at optimum levels. This could reduce their profitability, and force them to cut production. This gives refiners on other markets the opportunity to compensate for this difference. The U.S. currently exports diesel but imports gasoline. David Wech, chief economist at consultancy Vortexa, said that fewer U.S. exports of diesel would help to support European margins. However, there may be more opportunities for exports in the gasoline market which is under pressure. "Overall, a positive outcome for European refiners but not likely for European consumers," said he. An executive from a brokerage firm said that "European margins could improve" because the U.S. Northeast would have to import additional gasoline. "I believe European and Asian refiners will be the biggest winners." Matias Teogni, the founder of Next Barrel, an analytics firm, says that tariffs will also force crude sellers to lower their prices in order to attract buyers. He said that Asian refiners would be able to absorb the discounted Mexican and Canadian crude. This could boost their profit margins. The Asian refiners have the advantage of running heavy crudes, and they are in the process of increasing their production rates. Randy Hurburun is the head of refining for Energy Aspects. Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX), which was launched in Canada last May, can now transport an additional 590,000 barrels of oil per day along the Canadian Pacific Coast. Trading sources stated that higher TMX shipments from China could replace imports from Venezuela or Saudi Arabia. Wech, Vortexa, said that refiners in Asia-Pacific could also take advantage of fuel arbitrage opportunities with the U.S. West Coast. The West Coast might be affected by higher feedstock prices incurred when sourcing crudes from afar. Midwest refiners are expected to continue buying Canadian crude, despite the tariff. They could then pass on the cost to their customers. Stewart Glickman is an equity research analyst with CFRA Research. US FEEDSTOCK Conundrum Energy Information Administration (EIA), a government agency, reported that crude oil from Canada and Mexico will account for 28% of the crude consumed by U.S. refineries in 2023. Midwest refineries are particularly reliant on Canadian barrels. Analysts said that the different qualities of Canadian and Mexican crude oil will limit U.S. refiners ability to use more WTI light crude instead of Canadian or Mexican oil. Neil Crosby, analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that the use of WTI by domestic refiners was likely limited. They really needed residual fuels. Energy Aspects Hurburun said that although some U.S. refining plants have upgraded to process more lighter crudes, it would result in a underloading of secondary unit, which would impact both efficiency and economics. John England, Deloitte’s global leader in oil, gas, and chemicals sector, said that friction can lead to higher costs. According to the EIA report, U.S. crude imports from Canada reached their highest level ever in the week ending Jan. 3. This could be a sign that refiners are stocking up as tariffs are looming. Imports are down slightly, with the last import being 3.72 million barrels per day in the week ending Jan. 24. However, they remain high for the year. While U.S. refining companies have seen their earnings fall from record levels of 2022, they are still a long way off. The oil major Chevron reported earnings that were below Wall Street expectations in the fourth quarter, after its refining division suffered a first-time loss since 2020 due to weak margins. Tariffs, and the subsequent price hikes, could also impact on U.S. refiners’ ability to make a profit. Crosby said that the mechanics of imposing tariffs on Mexico or Canada would be very difficult for the competitiveness of U.S. systems. Reporting by Robert Harvey, Georgina Mccartney, Shariq Khalifa, Nicole Jao, Jarrett Renshaw, Trixie Yap, and Alex Lawler in London. Editing by Nia Williams and Alex Lawler.
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Trump tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil will increase pump prices
Analysts and fuel traders predict that U.S. gas prices will increase after President Donald Trump's Saturday decision to apply tariffs to Canadian and Mexican oil. Fuel prices are likely to rise due to Trump's double-edged trade protections. They will not only undermine his promise to combat inflation, but also pressure U.S. neighbours to stop illegal immigration and drug trafficking. The U.S. imports about 4 million barrels of Canadian oil per day, of which 70% is refined in the Midwest. The U.S. imports more than 450,000 barrels per day of Mexican oil for refiners based around the U.S. Gulf Coast. Tariffs on these imports will likely result in higher costs to make finished fuels such as gasoline. This cost increase is likely to be passed onto U.S. customers. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan wrote in a social media post that "fuel prices are likely to rise significantly if oil products and refined products do not receive an exemption." In a phone interview, he said that the impact on consumers would get worse as the tariffs continue to drag out. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association (AFPMA), which represents U.S. refineries, expressed on Saturday its hope that tariffs will be lifted before the consumers begin to feel their impact. White House officials reported that Trump ordered tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10% on Chinese goods starting Tuesday in response to a national crisis over fentanyl. The officials informed reporters that energy products imported from Canada would only be subject to a duty of 10%, while imports from Mexico will be assessed the full 25%. Officials said that Trump initially planned to impose a 25% tariff for all goods coming from Canada and Mexico, but he reduced the tariff on Canadian oil in order to reduce the impact of the tariff on energy prices. The development is set to upset a symbiotic trade in oil between the U.S. John LaForge, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said that "someone will get hurt here." He said that the oil from Alberta has little choice as to where it is shipped, and the Midwest refiners have no say in where they obtain their feedstock. Gulf Coast refiners who, unlike Midwest refiners, have access to seaborne shipments, are likely to find it easier to replace the Mexican crude grades. The wholesale fuel market has little choice but pass the cost on to the consumer, as the post COVID surge of fuel margins is fading away due to oversupply and a weakening growth in demand. "We are in a situation where we have to live hand-to-mouth," said Alex Ryan. He is the energy director for Oasis, a Kansas company that operates a travel shop and partly owns a convenience store which sells fuel. Ryan stated that his team, who also supplies fuel to markets in other countries, is still awaiting feedback from refiners about the estimated cost increases. Ryan stated that "whatever the cost, it ultimately ends up on the consumer's shoulders and we have nothing to do about it." Prices on the East Coast may also rise East Coast drivers also felt the pinch. About half of the region's daily fuel needs are met by its refining capacity, with the remainder being met by the Colonial Pipeline which pumps more than 100 million barrels daily from the Gulf Coast. This pipeline is almost never empty. During periods of high demand Irving Oil's St. John's Refinery in New Brunswick is the main swing supply to the East Coast. These imports are subject to a 10% tax. De Haan stated that the East Coast would either be forced to pay an additional price for fuel imported from Canada or import European fuel to cover any shortfalls. Analysts said that the impact of tariffs at Midwestern gas pumps could be delayed because refiners in the region have been producing fuels at high rates, and also stockpiling Canadian crude oil over the past few months. Tariffs will still increase costs. LaForge, a Wells Fargo representative, said: "No matter how you slice it, the price will be higher." (Reporting and editing by Alistair Bell in New York, with Shariq Khan reporting from New York)
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Trump tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil will increase pump prices
Analysts and fuel traders predict that U.S. gas prices will increase after President Donald Trump's Saturday decision to impose tariffs on Canadian oil and Mexican oil. Fuel prices are likely to rise due to Trump's double-edged trade protections. They will not only undermine his promise to combat inflation, but also pressure U.S. neighbours to stop illegal immigration and drug trafficking. The U.S. imports about 4 million barrels of Canadian oil per day, of which 70% is refined in the Midwest. The U.S. imports more than 450,000 barrels per day of Mexican oil - primarily for refiners around the U.S. Gulf Coast. Tariffs on these imports will likely result in higher costs to make finished fuels such as gasoline. This cost increase is likely to be passed onto U.S. customers. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan wrote in a social media post that "fuel prices are likely to rise noticeably" if oil products and refined products were not exempted. In a phone interview, he said that the impact on consumers would get worse as the tariffs continue to drag out. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association (AFPMA), which represents U.S. refineries, expressed on Saturday its hope that tariffs will be lifted before the consumers begin to feel their impact. White House officials reported that Trump ordered tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10% on Chinese goods starting Tuesday in response to a national crisis over fentanyl. The officials informed reporters that energy products imported from Canada would only be subject to a duty of 10%, while imports from Mexico will be assessed the full 25%. Officials said that Trump initially planned to impose a 25% tariff for all goods coming from Canada and Mexico, but he reduced the tariff on Canadian oil in order to reduce the impact of the tariff on energy prices. The development is set to upset a symbiotic trade in oil between the U.S. John LaForge, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said that "someone will get hurt here." He said that the oil from Alberta has little choice as to where it is shipped, and that the Midwest refiners have no option in terms of where they obtain their feedstock. Gulf Coast refiners who, unlike Midwest refiners, have access to seaborne shipments, are likely to find it easier to replace the Mexican crude grades. The wholesale fuel market has little choice but pass the cost on to the consumer, as the post COVID surge of fuel margins is fading away due to oversupply and weaker demand growth. "We are in a situation where we have to live hand-to-mouth," said Alex Ryan. He is the energy director for Oasis, a Kansas company that operates a travel shop and partly owns a convenience store which sells fuel. Ryan stated that his team, who also supplies fuel to markets in other countries, is still waiting on feedback from refiners about the estimated cost increases. Ryan stated that "whatever the cost, it ultimately ends up on the consumer's shoulders and we have nothing to do about it." Prices on the East Coast may also rise East Coast drivers also felt the pinch. About half of the region's daily fuel needs are met by its refining capacity, with the remainder being met primarily by the Colonial Pipeline which pumps more than 100 million barrels daily from the Gulf Coast. This pipeline is almost never empty. During periods of high demand Irving Oil's St. John's Refinery in New Brunswick is the main swing supply to the East Coast. These imports are subject to a 10% tax. De Haan stated that the East Coast would either be forced to pay an additional price for fuel imported from Canada or import European fuel to cover any shortfalls. Analysts said that the impact of tariffs at Midwestern gas pumps could be delayed because refiners in the region have been producing fuels at high rates, and also stockpiling Canadian crude oil over the past few months. Tariffs will still increase costs. LaForge, a Wells Fargo representative, said: "Anyway you slice it, the prices are going to be higher." (Reporting and editing by Alistair Bell in New York, with Shariq Khan reporting from New York)
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Ukraine's military confirms four deaths in Russian attack on Kursk region boarding school
Ukraine's military announced on Saturday that Russian troops had attacked a boarding-school housing people preparing to evacuate in a part held by Ukrainian forces of Russia's Kursk Region, killing at least 4 people. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, said that the attack destroyed the Sudzha boarding school "even though there were dozens of civilians present." According to a statement from the Ukrainian General Staff, rescue efforts were underway as of 10:00 pm (2000 GMT). The statement stated that four people were killed, and 84 others had been rescued. Four of the injured are in serious condition. Could not independently verify the Ukrainian story. The Russian Defence Ministry didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Zelenskiy wrote in English about the incident on X. He said that it exposed Russia as a "state devoid of civility". Zelenskiy wrote: "This is the way Russia waged war--Sudzha and Kursk region in Russian territory. A boarding school where civilians were preparing to leave. "A Russian aerial bombardment. The building was destroyed despite the presence of dozens civilians. It was the same way Russia waged its war on Chechnya in decades past. The same thing happened to Syrians. "Russian bombs also destroy Ukrainian homes in the same manner." A general staff announcement earlier said that a Russian glide bomb or guided bomb had struck the boarding-school in the late afternoon. The strike was planned. "At the time of strike, local residents were preparing to evacuate the building," the report said. Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi was a military spokesperson who had said earlier in a Facebook video that there were nearly 100 people under the rubble. He said they had been mostly elderly or infirm people. According to at least one unofficial Russian blogger, the attack was carried out by Ukrainian forces. Since August, when Ukrainian forces launched a major invasion across the border, they have controlled large parts of the Kursk area. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski, Diane Craft and Oleksandr Kozoukhar)
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Pensioner waiting at missile attack site for bodies of presumed dead family members
Ihor Yavorskyi, a Ukrainian pensioner who served in the military, spent the entire day on Saturday at the scene of a Russian missile strike to find out what he assumed was inevitable -- the bodies of his three family members that he believed were killed. Yavorskyi (61), along with other worried residents, stood alongside rubble, in Poltava, a city located in central Ukraine. The residents of Poltava waited patiently while emergency crews removed the bodies of the victims from a part of the apartment block that was reduced to rubble by the attack. He would rush over to the crews bringing bodies on stretchers and examine them. The bodies recovered to date do not include those of Dmytro (37), Alyona (38), or Sofia (9 years old). Yavorskyi stated, "My son and daughter-in law are both here." They've all been killed, the three of them. "Within a second." Yavorskyi assumed the worst. Yavorskyi, a veteran of the military, was assuming the worst. He quickly checked a new victim that was being brought out. "No, it's not this one," he replied. "That's a senior citizen." It's him." Crews scrambled up and down huge piles of smouldering debris and twisted metal to reach him. The cranes moved slabs of concrete to make it easier for rescuers. Yavorskyi lost his patience, dressed in a simple raincoat of green and a woollen cap to protect him from the cold and damp. He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had one goal since the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1991: to destroy Ukraine, his great country. "I want Putin and all of Russia to die together." All of them will be hated for the next 100 years. He will not stop. "Not until he destroys the entire Ukraine." (Reporting and Editing by Serhiy Karzy, Ron Popeski, Diane Craft, and Diane Craft.)
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Trump announces that Venezuela will accept illegal migrants captured by the US
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Venezuela had agreed to accept all Venezuelan illegal immigrants captured in the United States. Venezuela will also pay for their transportation. Trump stated in a Truth Social post that Venezuela had agreed to accept all Venezuelan illegal aliens encamped at the U.S. border, including members of Tren de Aragua gang. He also said that Venezuela had agreed to provide transport. The Venezuelan government didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Richard Grenell, the U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, met Nicolas Maduro on Friday in South America. Six American hostages were freed and returned from Venezuela to the United States within hours of their meeting. One week after Trump's announcement, Venezuela has announced that it will accept the return of illegally-residing Venezuelan citizens. Tariffs are threatened Sanctions after Colombia refused military flights transporting deportees. Colombia reversed course and accepted migrants after the threats. Trump said that he was "in the process" of removing a record number of illegal aliens in all countries. He had vowed in his presidential campaign of 2024 to crackdown on illegal immigration. Trump is a Republican Executive orders are issued in a variety of forms After taking office on January 20, the Trump administration will crackdown on illegal immigration, including deporting record numbers migrants without legal status in the U.S.
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Mali gold mining accident kills over a dozen people, including women and kids
The national union of gold counters, refineries and artisanal gold miners (UCROM) announced on Saturday that thirteen artisanal gold miners, among them women and children, died in southwest Mali after a tunnel they were digging to find gold flooded. Taoule Camara, UCROM's Secretary General Taoule Camara, confirmed the incident via telephone. It occurred near the village Danga within the Kangaba Cercle of Mali's southwest Koulikoro Region. The sluice gate of a muddy reservoir burst and poured into a tunnel where women and children were digging up earth in search of leftover gold particles. It is serious. Many women were present. Camara had said, earlier in the week when the death toll wasn't yet known: "We spent the whole day yesterday removing the water and looking for bodies." In West Africa, artisanal mining has become increasingly profitable in recent years as a result of the growing demand for metals. As artisanal miners often use digging methods that are not regulated, accidents can be fatal. In January of last year, more than 70 people died after a shaft at a gold-mining site collapsed in the Kangaba Cercle. (Reporting and writing by Tiemoko Dillo, Editing by Jan Harvey).
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Gas infrastructure and 11 dead in Russian air strike on Ukraine
Officials in Ukraine said that Russia had launched a barrage on Ukraine with drones and missiles, which killed 11 people, damaged dozens of homes, and destroyed energy infrastructure throughout the country. The Interior Ministry reported that a Russian rocket struck a residential structure in Poltava's central city, killing 7 people and wounding 14 others including 3 children. On Telegram, the ministry shared pictures of the building showing several upper floors that were smashed. Thick columns of smoke rose into the air. The rubble was being searched by firefighters and rescuers. The mayor of Kharkiv, in the northeast, said that a drone strike in the city killed one person and injured four others. Regional officials reported that three police officers were killed in the attack as they patrolled the streets of a village located in the northeastern Sumy region. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine, said that Russia used a variety of weapons to attack our cities, including missiles, drones and aerial bombs. He added that damage had been caused in six different regions. "Each terrorist attack shows that we need to be more supported in our defense against Russian terror." "Every air defence system and every anti-missile device saves lives," said he on the Telegram application. According to the Ukrainian air force, Russian forces fired 123 drones as well as more than 40 missiles. The Ukrainian air force said its air defence units had shot down 56 drones and redirected another 61. The air force did not provide any figures as to how many missiles it intercepted. INFRASTRUCTURE TAGED Authorities in Poltava said that 18 apartment blocks, a kindergarten and the energy infrastructure had been damaged. Ukrainian officials confirmed that damages were also reported in Zaporizhzhia, in the southeast; Kharkiv, in the north-east; and Khmelnytskyi, in the west. Oleh Syniehubov, the Kharkiv governor, said that Russian forces had used six missiles as well as 17 Shahed drones in order to target gas infrastructures and other facilities. Russian news agencies reported that the Russian Defence Ministry stated that its forces have launched attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, including gas pipelines and other facilities. They also said they had shot down 108 Ukrainian UAVs in the past 24 hours. Since March 2024 Russia has launched numerous missile and drone strikes on Ukraine's energy sector and other infrastructure. This has knocked out approximately half of the available generating power in the country and forced rolling blackouts. Both sides use drones to target infrastructure and disrupt supply lines as the war nears its third anniversary this month. Russian forces are making small but steady advances in eastern Ukraine and moving closer to Pokrovsk's strategic logistic hub. The early Saturday morning strikes by Moscow followed an evening missile attack that damaged the historic center of Odesa, a Black Sea port. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Matarise and Jason Neely; Olena Harmasch)
Floods in Australia's north-east have killed one and urged thousands to evacuate
Authorities in Australia said that one person died in the heavy flooding in north Queensland on Sunday. They urged thousands of people to seek higher ground because of torrential rainfall.
Queensland authorities reported that major flooding had begun in Hinchinbrook Shire. This coastal locality, which has around 11,000 residents and is located 500 km north of the state capital Brisbane, was experiencing significant flooding. Authorities said that several suburbs of the nearby town of Townsville were also affected.
North Queensland is home to large deposits of zinc, as well as silver, lead and copper. Townsville is a major centre for processing the region's metals. In 2019, flooding in the region disrupted rail shipments of lead and zinc concentrators and damaged thousands properties.
Residents in low-lying areas should gather their evacuation kit and go to a higher place that is safe. The situation could pose a danger to property and life," regional emergency management officials said on Sunday morning.
Australia's weather forecaster stated on its website that the flooding was caused by heavy rains from a low-pressure system rich in tropical moist. The total rainfall for 24 hours could be up to 300mm (11.8inches).
It said that "the potential for heavy rainfall, localized intense rain and damaging wind may continue well into the first week of next year depending on the position and strength of the low and trough."
In recent years, Australia's east has been hit by frequent flooding. This includes "once in a lifetime" floods which inundated the Northern Territory neighbouring state in January 2023 as a result of a multi-year La Nina event. (Reporting from Sydney by Sam McKeith; Editing by Daniel Wallis, Sonali Paul).
(source: Reuters)