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Russian wheat crop drops to three-year low after frosts, USDA states

The U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its forecasts for Russia's wheat production and exports on Wednesday, after Moscow declared federal emergencies over crop losses due to unfavorable weather.

Concerns about damage from dry spell and frosts in Russia, the world's greatest wheat provider, drove Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures to 10-month highs in May while EU wheat topped one-year highs. CBOT wheat pared losses after the USDA reduced its price quotes in a month-to-month report.

Cuts to the Russian crop are adding to tightening global products. World wheat stocks are forecasted to drop to a. nine-year low in 2024-25, while soybean stocks are expected to. increase and corn supplies look more comfortable following. current tightness.

The USDA pegged Russia's 2024-25 wheat harvest at a. three-year low of 83 million metric heaps, down from 88 million. tons last month, and its exports at 48 million tons, down from. 52 million in May.

USDA's most likely going to continue to modify lower not just. Russia but likewise Ukraine next month when they get a clearer. photo of the frost damage, stated Terry ???? Reilly, senior. farming strategist for Marex.

The department forecasted worldwide wheat ending stocks for. 2024-25 at a nine-year low of 252.27 million tons, down from. 253.61 million in May. Experts anticipated 251.18 million,. according to a survey.

May frosts in Russia's breadbasket regions already triggered. farming consultancies IKAR and Sovecon to downgrade their. crop projections.

Russia's Ministry of Farming has actually approximated crop losses. from frosts at about 1.2% of the overall sown area and said a lot of. dead crops were reseeded. However frosts affected in between 15% and. 30% of winter grains, differing by area, the head of Russia's. grain union said on Tuesday.

For the U.S., the USDA projected all-wheat production at a. five-year high of 1.875 billion bushels, compared to 1.858. billion in May and experts' price quotes for 1.88 billion. U.S. wheat ending stocks are anticipated at a four-year high in 2024-25. and U.S. corn stocks are predicted to reach a six-year high.

(source: Reuters)