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Kyrgyzstan seeks help from neighbours to meet fuel shortages in Russia
Kyrgyzstan, which was concerned about possible fuel shortages due to Ukraine's drone strikes against Russian refineries, asked Kazakhstan, Belarus and Azerbaijan to help ensure stable fuel supplies on Wednesday evening. The 7-million-strong Central Asian nation imports 90% of its fuel from Russia. Russia is also experiencing acute fuel shortages due to the Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow may ban diesel exports due to the growing domestic shortages. The Kyrgyzstan energy ministry released a statement saying that "to ensure sustainable fuel supply, official requests were sent to the government authorities of?Russian Federation?, the Republic of Kazakhstan?, the Republic of Belarus?, the Republic of Azerbaijan?, the Republic of Uzbekistan?, and Turkmenistan?." Fuel stocks are sufficient, and deliveries are going as planned, according to the ministry. Kyrgyz officials introduced price controls on some retail fuel sales in June. The Kyrgyzstan oil traders association also reported that some filling stations are experiencing a'shortage of AI-95 gas,' although stocks of the'more commonly used AI-92 grade are sufficient for 30 to 40 days. Diesel fuel is still available, which is critical for the harvesting season. Since the '2022 invasion of Ukraine Kyrgyzstan, like other Central Asian countries, has experienced periodic 'inflationary shocks. It is also a major clearinghouse for Russian trade redirected by Western sanction. Reporting by Aigerim Turgunbaeva. Writing by Felix Light & Louise Heavens
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Adani and IHC plan to build a $11.5 billion aluminum project in Odisha, India
?Abu Dhabi’s?International Holding Company? plans to invest $11.5billion in an integrated aluminum project in eastern Indian state Odisha via a joint venture India’s Adani Group?, a State official announced on Thursday. This would be the largest foreign investment?in metals in the country. India is investing in aluminium to meet the growing demand for infrastructure, power, transportation and renewable energy. It also wants to reduce its reliance on imports of metal products with added value. The federal government announced steps last year to increase aluminium production and stated that 'domestic demand will reach 8.5 millions metric tons in fiscal 2030. According to the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), IHC Group and Adani Group each will hold 50% of the venture. The venture will include a refinery and a smelter as well as a captive energy plant and downstream aluminum manufacturing park. This will create the largest aluminium complex in the state. The project's annual capacity will be 4 million?tons alumina. It also has a 2 MTPA aluminum capacity, and 1 MTPA downstream aluminium facility. Odisha is home to India's largest bauxite deposits, which are used to make aluminum. It accounts for 54% the nation's 'aluminum' output. At the signing of the MoU, an official said that the project is expected to create 53.500 jobs. 35,000 will be created during construction, and another 18.500 when operations begin. Adani Group led by billionaire Gautam Adani does not operate an aluminum manufacturing facility at the moment, but has announced plans to build alumina refineries and aluminium plants in Odisha. In the Indian state of Gujarat, its flagship company Adani Enterprises operates a copper smelter worth $1.2 billion, which is the largest plant of this kind in the world.
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Emirates Global Aluminium sees faster progress in restoring Al Taweelah output
* It could take up to a year for hot metal production to return to its previous levels Since the first EGA reduction cell on May 26th, EGA has restarted 89 cells. * Cast metal production at the recycling plant resumed in early May (Adds statements, quotes; paragraphs 1-12). By Hadeel Al Sayegh DUBAI, July?2 -- Emirates Global Aluminium announced on Thursday that it had restored production earlier than expected at the Al Taweelah facility, which was hit by Iranian attacks in March. However, hot metal output would take up to one year to reach previous levels. The complex, which is one of the largest aluminium production facilities in the world, was severely damaged by the Iranian attacks that hit the Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi on 28 March. The company said in a statement that two injured employees were able to leave the hospital. It quoted Abdulnasser Bin Kalban, Chief Executive of Al Taweelah as saying: "We are quickly and safely implementing a clear and disciplined plan to restore production at Al Taweelah." EGA must restore each of the 1,262 reduction cells at the smelter to resume hot metal production. The report said that the anode removal has been completed in all cells. Bath cleaning has also been completed for around 90% of cells and frozen metals have been removed from more than 20%. It added that since the first cell was brought back on line in May?26, now 89 have been brought online. The plant's casthouse produced its first casting on May 4, and is remelting the frozen metal that was recovered during restoration along with hot metal from the?restored cell. Early May saw the resumption of cast metal production at the site, and full production is expected to be achieved within six months, depending on scrap availability. The Al Taweelah refinery is expecting to start production in the third quarter, depending on the speed of ramp-up. EGA stated that hot?metal production would not be dependent on the refinery reaching its full capacity. In a statement, CEO Abdulnasser Bin Kalban said that "we are exploring all opportunities to accelerate the timeline even further" and will reach our goal of being stronger than before.
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Gold prices rise on weak US employment data and lower oil prices; focus is on nonfarm payrolls
Gold prices rose on Thursday, as weaker-than-expected U.S. Jobs data and lower oil price eased inflation worries, while investors awaited nonfarm payrolls to get clues about the Federal Reserve policy. Gold spot rose by 0.9%, to $4,065.51 an ounce as of 0425 GMT. It had reached its highest level since the 23rd of June in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for August delivered fell 0.1% to $4,078.20. The bullion recovered from a more-than-seven month low to close higher on Wednesday at $4,029.89 after data showed that U.S. employment increased by 98,000 jobs in June, which was below the economists' expectation of 118,000. Nicholas Frappell is the global head of institutional markets for ABC Refinery. He said, "The market is cautious about shorting down here, because you see a few probes to the downside that are being quickly rejected." Frappell said that "ADP data was a bit lower than forecast so that probably explains the gold's rally, as some people believe that the data would be reflected in the non-farm payrolls." Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated on Wednesday that both inflation expectations and risks have decreased in recent weeks. He also reiterated the central bank's commitment to bring inflation to its 2% target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a roughly 64% chance of a rate increase in September. The Fed's rate decision could be influenced by the June nonfarm payroll data, which is due at 1230 GMT. The oil prices dropped after Iran and United States concluded indirect talks on Wednesday. They focused on the Strait of Hormuz but made few progresses toward a lasting agreement. Gold is no longer a good investment in high-interest rates. Silver spot rose by 1.8%, to $60.20 an ounce. Platinum gained 2.3%, to $1.613, while palladium increased 1.5%, to $1.228.18. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Ronojoy Mazumdar, Eileen Soreng and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Climate change snares Net-zero champion Europe
The 'June heatwave' that broke temperature records across Europe has brought to light the urgent need for adaptation to global warming. The European Union has been a leader when it comes to climate change. It was among the first major economies that?set a legal binding target of reaching net-zero emission by 2050. A June heatwave in Europe - which peaked at over 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) - revealed that businesses, amenities, and critical infrastructure were not ready for climate change's immediate effects. Krzysztof Blesta, Poland's Deputy Minister of Climate, said, "We haven't done enough to adapt." This was after power supplies were disrupted in parts of the region, outdoor work in some places was banned, trains in Germany were cancelled, and in Sweden, a cargo train derailled due to extreme temperatures buckling metal rails. Spain, one of the worst-affected countries, reported an excess of 1,000 deaths it attributed to the record heat. The EU does not have the expertise to adapt buildings and public areas to extreme heat. Instead, it is the national or regional authorities who are responsible for this. Wopke H. Hoekstra told journalists that it was pointless to try to tell the Greeks and Spaniards how to fight wildfires. He said that the Dutch were better at building dikes than the rest of us. The EU plan will focus on best practices and common scenarios. Even though global warming is heating Europe faster than any other continent, the EU still spends little on adaptation. Official figures reveal that between 2021 and 2025 72% of climate-related expenditures from the EU joint budget went towards mitigation or limiting greenhouse gases which cause warming. Only 18%?went toward adaptation and 9% dealt with both issues. Incentives for mitigation - Financial incentives The EU has a number of financial incentives to reduce emissions. These include subsidies for renewable energy and the EU Emissions Trading system, which limits the amount of?emissions that companies can produce, while allowing greener firms to trade their excess permits to pollute at a profit. Bolesta, a Polish politician, said that there is no similar incentive for businesses to invest in adaption measures. He said that it was easier to understand the business case of mitigation because there is a cap-and-trade, carbon credits and renewable energy companies. "Adaptation is mainly regarded as an expense with long-term benefits. So delayed gratification. But it can also be just a policy of insurance - it may or may not kick in." The Dutch bank ING stated in a report this week that extremes caused by climate change, such as heatwaves and droughts, cost the nearly stagnant European economy 0.3% of its output in 2013. ING stated that "the uncomfortable truth is heatwaves are now considered macro variables, not just weather events." The thermometer has, in fact, become a leading indicator. Costs to economies can range from the threat to tourism and farming in southern countries to the difficulty in working in offices not adapted for hot weather. According to an official estimate, a day of heat over 30 degrees Celsius costs the German economy EUR430,000,000 ($465,000,000) in productivity losses. However, according to the Federal Environment Agency, only 50% of German offices are air-conditioned compared to 90-95% of southern European offices. Geraldine Dany Knedlik, a researcher at the German Institute for Economic Research DIW, said: "We (Germany), have built for cold but not for heat for decades. This is an adaptation gap." Irene Seemann, who leads efforts to assist businesses with climate adaption in the large German State of North Rhine-Westphalia said that there are signs of a mindset change. Seemann explained that, "to use a football metaphor, Germany is one-nil up because heat hasn't been a big issue." "Now, companies are recognizing that it has a direct effect on their operations." Some simple adaptation fixes can be done for a relatively low cost. The glass-domed building is protected by laws that prohibit structural changes. German flooring company 'Project Floors' applied reflective film to its Cologne headquarters. Reflective film was applied to the windows of the German flooring firm?Project Floors' Cologne headquarters. The windows were able to reduce indoor temperatures by 10° Celsius. Bernd Greve, managing director of Project Floors, said: "It's simple, it works, and there is no need for power." Some require fundamental changes in workplaces and labor organisation. For example, rearranging shifts at cooler times during the day or reinventing public transport networks and urban space. The progress has been made compared to the deadly heatwave of 2003. World Health Organization published a statement last week that estimated the number of heat-related deaths would have been 80% higher in Europe today, more than 20 years later, if adaptation measures had not been implemented. These include heat-health plans, early warnings and cooling spaces, as well as outreach to the most vulnerable. Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe said: "They save lives now." We need more in the entire European region.
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Morning bid Europe-Shares fall as markets wait for likely payrolls data
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. After a?bumper quarter, global shares have retreated. The quarter-end rebalancing is partly responsible, but there are also concerns about the AI party's future. The news that Meta plans to sell surplus AI 'compute makes one wonder if they still need to purchase all those hot chips. Asia got a bad start. South Korea initially suffered a 7% drop on the back of heavy selling of chipmakers such as SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and others. However, this has now slowed down. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.2% and the KOSPI lost 3%. European stock exchanges are preparing for a flat opening, with pan-regional stock futures up 0.1%. Futures on the Nasdaq rose by 0.3%, while those for S&P 500 were up 0.2%. The focus hereafter will be the U.S. nonfarm payrolls, which arrive a day earlier due to the Independence Day Holiday on July 4. The median forecast by economists is for a rise in?jobs of 110,000, with a range from 25,000-200,000. It is likely that the football World Cup created thousands of temporary positions, increasing the chances of a positive surprise. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%. Treasury yields are 'climbing in anticipation of some strong numbers. Two-year yields are up 9 basis points this week, regardless of what Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh says about inflation risks coming down. A strong jobs report will add to the market pricing of policy tightening by the Fed in this year. The move in September is about 80% priced in. However, a weaker result would reduce pressure on any interest rate increases this year. Oil prices, which fell to a new four-month low last Thursday, are providing comfort to global central banks. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), said that inflation and growth risks are more evenly distributed now as markets reduce the likelihood of an ECB interest rate hike. Later in the day we will also be able to see the euro zone unemployment rate (for?May), where a forecast of a constant 6.3% is expected. Inflation in June was lower than expected at 2.8%. The yen was hovering near a '40-year-low at 162.52 per dollar. U.S. employment data will likely be pivotal in determining the yen's near-term fate. Japan has increased its intervention rhetoric, but it has yet to be seen on the market. Sources said that officials are abandoning the habit of telegraphing interventions and instead planning a calculated campaign in order to increase the cost of betting on the yen. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. The US payroll report for June Euro zone unemployment rate in May Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, speaks in Spain
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Manufacturing strength is a key factor in the rise of aluminium
Aluminum prices edged higher on Thursday as signs of strength in the manufacturing industry supported their rise. Benchmark?aluminium for three months on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.59% to $3,094 per metric ton by 0300 GMT. The most-traded aluminum contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 0.09%, to 22,505 Yuan ($3,316.83). The manufacturing strength was evident in the prices of light metals used for transport, packaging, and construction. China, Europe, and the U.S. released data on Wednesday that showed manufacturing strength, despite higher input prices. The price of aluminium has dropped in the past two weeks due to the peace process between the U.S. and Iran, which reduced the premium for metals that were a result of war. Copper was also?subdued' in other places. A June deadline for a recommendation on potential ?U.S. The deadline for a recommendation on potential?U.S. tariffs was June, but the White House did not announce anything. Copper prices have been driven by concerns about tariffs in recent months. The LME copper price was stable with a rise of only 0.02%. On the SHFE, it fell by?0.09%. Kevin Warsh, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, made a balanced comment on inflation that boosted?base metals markets. They feared that stubborn inflation would lead to?higher interest rates for longer. Increased interest rates suppress economic activity, which in turn impacts industrial minerals that are dependent on growth. The demand for copper has been boosted by the growth of AI infrastructure, grid investment and electric cars. Nickel?dipped by 0.15%, tin fell by 0.49% and lead was up only 0.19%. On the SHFE, lead fell 0.63%, tin rose 0.34%, and nickel dropped 0.47%.
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After the US-Iran talks in Doha concluded, oil prices fell for a third day.
Oil prices fell about 1% on Thursday, for the third day in a row, after Qatar announced that Iran and the U.S. made progress during 'indirect talks' focused on the Strait of Hormuz. This area handled a fifth of global oil supplies before the war. In a blog post, a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the discussions had produced "positive progress" in relation to the memorandum which ended the war in the month of June. However, there was no indication that both sides had made any progress towards a lasting peaceful. Brent futures fell by 77 cents, or 1.1%, to $70.80 per barrel at?0256 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped by 84 cents, or 1.2%, to $67.74 per barrel. The benchmarks for both indices fell by more than 1% during the last session and reached their lowest level in four months. Haitong Futures stated in a report that as the strait remains open and crude oil continues to flow out, expectations of an oversupply are increasing and the competition for market share is driving prices lower. Sources said that OPEC+ countries are likely to agree on a new increase in output goals for August at their Sunday meeting. UBS cut its Brent predictions on Thursday, citing the U.S. Iran memorandum of Understanding and the increase in oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It has cut its average Brent forecast by $25 for the quarter ending September and by $10 for the quarter ending December. The bank expects that the benchmark will average $80 per barrel in the second half and $75 by 2027. UBS stated that "despite this, we do not believe it's?premature? to assume full normalisation & price risks are skewed to the upside, given the fact that inbound tankers have lagged behind outbound tankers." Qatar's Foreign Ministry has also confirmed that the next meeting between Iran and U.S. diplomats will take place on July 9 after the funeral procession for Iran's late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Mike Dolan: Wall Street's old bull faces an "everlasting" US expansion
The U.S. economy has been undergoing a transformation. One of the most remarkable aspects is its escape from the?significant cyclical depression since mid-2009. This 17-year period has accelerated the stock market's boom and facilitated funding for the AI transformation.
This is not the "Great Moderation", the period from mid-2007 to 1984 when macroeconomic volatility was dramatically reduced. The economy of today is bumpy and politically noisy. It's marked by widening income gaps, and it has already started to show signs of inflation.
Investors have almost completely abandoned the idea of a possible downturn in the near future. It is harder to imagine what could derail the economy if it can survive surging interest rates and tariffs, or even this year's unprecedented energy shock.
This resilience is not all cyclical. A more services-heavy economic system, stronger balance sheets, and quicker policy backstops may help absorb shocks which might have otherwise triggered a recession.
The 2020 pandemic was a real event, and it was triggered by the deliberate shutdowns that were made to contain COVID-19. It was neither a cyclical recession nor a winding down of excess. The government also provided massive support, and the downturn was mercifully short. It was a V-shaped decline and recovery as vaccines were created at an unprecedented pace. It can be almost discounted when examining the performance over the last 80 years of the "overall" economy.
If you remove the two consecutive quarters in 2020 of real GDP contraction -- which is the accepted definition of a recession by most economists -- then the world's biggest economy will have its longest period of no recession since World War Two.
Since the financial crash in 2008, we haven't experienced a major bust. The output fell for four quarters in a row, from mid-2009 to mid-2010, as part of an 18 month stretch where GDP showed five quarterly negative prints.
The 10-year period that ended in the dotcom crash was the longest recession-free post-WW2 stretch. In the 1960s, nine years were also unbroken. But neither is close to the 17-year streak that still continues, excluding the pandemic-free year.
There have been four isolated quarterly contractions during this long stretch. No quarter, including the first-quarter decline in 2025 tied to an import surge before tariffs, was followed by another quarterly decline.
It is possible that up to half of U.S. employees have never experienced a nationwide recession. Many traders and investors today may also be in the same boat.
Recession-probability metrics have flashed red several times over the past six years -- during the 2022 inflation and rate shock, after President Donald Trump's tariff sweep early last year, and again during this year's Iran war and fuel-price spike. The downturns didn't happen, and now few see a looming one.
Bank of America's global fund managers survey found that only 5% of respondents expect an economic "hard landing" in the next year.
A BULL AGING
Wall Street has been able to maintain its "buy the dip mentality" for many years due to the absence of recession and the accumulation of wealth and savings. This has been reinforced by a concentration of market dominance in a few tech megacaps, and over the last three years by the transformative AI themes.
Strategists say that a recession is not necessary to cause a market shake-up.
Deutsche Bank highlighted last year several large S&P 500 drawsdowns which did not involve recessions. These included the 25% peak to trough fall of 2022, as interest rates surged.
These episodes were not triggered or influenced by recession.
Analysts at Societe Generale say that the U.S. equity bear market has been remarkable both in terms of its size and duration. The S&P 500 gained almost 400% in 13 years. They calculate that, excluding the exceptionally brief drop around the 1987 crash they estimate that, on average, bear-market?downturns have taken over two years to run their course. Recovery to previous peaks has taken an average of 11 years.
The SocGen team reiterates that bull markets don't die with age. They added that "they generally succumb to tightening of financial conditions, excessive borrowing or economic shocks."
How closely the long-term economic expansion and the long-term equity bull market will remain intertwined in the future remains to be seen.
The lack of experience most people have with recessions may make it less likely that one will occur, as they are more confident in the ability to recover quickly. This same lack of experience can also lead to complacency and a carelessness towards cycles that are now long forgotten.
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(source: Reuters)