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Dallas Fed study finds that oil shock hurt US GDP, but the message was resilience.

A new Dallas Fed study estimates that oil surging above $120 per barrel in spring of last year 'cut three-tenths a percentage points from U.S. economic output. However, the impact was only a fraction of the damage caused by a similar oil spike back in the 1980s when imports were more prevalent. After the U.S. supported war against Iran, which led to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz Shipping Lanes, the roughly 15% reduction in global oil supply impacted the commodity markets around the world. Prices rose and supplies became scarcer in some parts of the globe. Dallas Fed researchers estimate that the war caused a 1.7% drop in economic activity outside of the U.S. As a net oil exporter, price changes have a double edged effect on the U.S. They hit consumers when gasoline prices rise but also benefit oil industry firms and stockholders. U.S. efficiency is also improved. Economic output is less dependent on energy today than it was in the past. Dallas Fed economists Lutz Killian, Michael Plante, and Alexander W. Richter created a model to estimate how different impacts net out. They found that the economy was much more resistant to oil price changes than it had been in the 1970s or 1980s, during previous Middle East supply disruptions.

These 'earlier disruptions' were smaller, but occurred at a time where the U.S. spent around 8% on oil, compared to around 3% now.

The research showed that a similar change in supply to what was experienced in the 1980s would have reduced GDP by 5.6%. In the rest of world, output fell by 6%. These findings confirm recent data that the war has not had a significant impact on the U.S. economy. Job growth in recent months and consumption have been relatively unaffected. Federal Reserve officials are worried about the effect on prices, but they also believe that inflation will be short-lived. The U.S. economic growth rate was around 1.6% per annum in the first three month of this year.

(source: Reuters)