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The MORNING BID AMERICAS Relief rally is paused
Amanda Cooper gives us a look at what the U.S. market and global markets will be like today. The'recently agreed on two-week Iran truce wobbled as Washington and Tehran disagreed over what the 'deal actually covered. Oil prices and stocks fell as the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to vessels. A new 'war of words' broke out between both sides as weekend peace negotiations looked likely. Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. RELIEF Rally HITS PAUSE Brent crude and WTI crude both rose again on Thursday, on renewed uncertainty. Both benchmarks reached $98 per barrel before falling slightly. The prices are still well below those seen earlier in the week. After Wednesday's rally, the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI in South Korea both fell on Thursday, after a multi-day gain. European shares opened lower and U.S. Futures were in the red just before the bell. The dollar traded sideways in currencies as traders sought to determine whether the U.S. Iran ceasefire will hold. Meanwhile, the yen gave back some of its Wednesday gains and now trades at around 159 dollars. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, which has raised doubts about the durability of this ceasefire. Iranian coastguards warned on Wednesday that vessels without permission will be "targeted" and destroyed, and Tehran continues to consider charging a fee for transiting the waterway. Iran also claims that the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon are a violation of the ceasefire. While peace talks may still begin on Saturday, Iran’s chief negotiator has suggested that the process would be "unreasonable". Meanwhile, President Trump has issued new military threats. All of this is unlikely to convince markets that the ceasefire is the breakthrough they had hoped for, or that the energy crisis facing the global economic system will abate anytime soon. This keeps the threat of inflation on the table and has helped to slow the rally in U.S. Treasury bonds. The traders will be looking out for the February personal consumption expenditures report on Thursday. It is expected that U.S. Prices have risen by 0.4% in a second consecutive month, even before the recent jump in energy costs. The minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting were published on Wednesday and showed that some policymakers are leaning towards a rate increase as its next move. "Many participants" continued to support rate cuts at the meeting, but "most" also saw possible risks to economic expansion from the war. Chart of the Day Since the beginning of the U.S. - Iran war, the daily shipping traffic through the Strait?of Hormuz is less than 10% of what it was historically.?Tehran has also demonstrated its ability to cut off Gulf oil supplies. This shows how the conflict has already changed power dynamics in this region. Watch today's events * U.S. PCE inflation data for February (8:30 am EDT), weekly jobless claims (8.30 am EDT), and final Q4 GDP (8.30 a.m. EDT) * U.S. 30 year bond auction (1 pm EDT) Want to receive "the Morning Bid" in your email every morning? Subscribe to the newsletter. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and to integrity, independence and freedom from bias.
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Kremlin: Indonesian president may visit Russia to meet with Putin
Kremlin spokesperson?Dmitry Peskov? said on Thursday that Indonesian President Prabowo?may? visit Russia to hold a?talk with President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin stated earlier this week that the global energy crisis was causing a'shaking of the foundations of oil and gas markets. Peskov responded that contacts were being made between the two leaders. Prabowo’s spokesperson didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. About 20% to 25% of Indonesian crude oil imports are sourced from the Middle East. The government says it will increase?imports to other countries such as Angola and Nigeria to ensure a sufficient supply in Indonesia. Prabowo announced on Wednesday that he would be traveling abroad soon. He refused to disclose his destination but said the trip was meant to'secure Indonesian interests. Reporting by Dmitry Antonov, Stefanno Nangoy and Fransiska Sulaiman in Jakarta. Writing by Vladimir Soldatkin. Editing by Andrew Osborn.
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China believes'relevant parties can grasp the chance of peace in Iran war
China's Foreign Ministry said that it hoped "relevant parties" would seize this opportunity to bring the Middle East back to stability. This came after Iran and the U.S. agreed on a ceasefire following the Middle East conflict. In a press briefing, the spokesperson for China's foreign ministry Mao Ning stated that China has "actively tried to promote reconciliation and avoid further fighting." Both the U.S.A. and Iran agreed late on Tuesday to a ceasefire of two weeks?to the conflict which has shaken?global markets? and caused?geopolitical turmoil? Mao, the Chinese leader, said that Beijing hoped the relevant parties would take advantage of the chance for peace. "Resolve differences by dialogue and consultation and strive to restore peace and stability as soon as possible in the Gulf region and the Middle East," Mao added. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has vowed to keep military 'assets' in the Middle East unless a peace deal with iran is achieved. He also warned that if Iran did not comply with the terms of the ceasefire there would be a significant escalation of fighting. Prices of oil rose on fears about supply and the future of restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Reporting by Eduardo Baptista, Beijing newsroom. Writing by Farah Masters; Editing by Alison Williams & Shri Navaratnam.
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Gold prices steady as investors look to US-Iran ceasefire; brace for inflation data
The gold?price was steady on Thursday, as investors remained cautious over the 'fragile' U.S.-Iran truce. A key U.S. Inflation Report due later that day will also be a focus for any interest rate clues. As of 0716 GMT, spot gold was unchanged at $4,715.45 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 0.8% to $ 4,739.40. "It does not seem that gold is looking for much?at the moment. Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilver Central, said that there is still much speculation about what will happen after the ceasefire. Lan predicted that gold would consolidate between $4 607 and $4 860 in the near future. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has vowed to keep military assets in Middle East until an agreement with Iran is reached. He also warned that a major increase in violence would occur if Iran failed to comply. Israel's heaviest strike yet on?Lebanon was carried out Wednesday. It killed hundreds and drew a threat from Iran. The price of oil rose on Thursday amid concerns that supplies from the Middle East, a key region for producing oil, may not resume fully due to doubts about the durability of the two-week ceasefire. Since the beginning of the war on February 28, spot gold has fallen more than 10%. Higher energy prices have fueled inflation fears and caused markets to reassess their expectations for interest rate cuts, which in turn reduced non-yielding metal's appeal. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 17 and 18 revealed that policymakers believed that rate increases?could? be necessary?to combat inflation that continues to exceed the central banks' 2% target. U.S. The Fed may be able to give more clues about its policy direction by releasing the Personal Consumption Spending data for February at 1230 GMT on Thursday. Also, the March Consumer Price Data on Friday. Standard Chartered stated in a note published on Wednesday that "we expect gold to continue its 'gains' in the months to come, despite increased?geopolitical risks." (Reporting by Pablo Sinha and Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy, Subhranshu Sahu, and Harikrishnan Nair) (Reporting from Pablo Sinha and Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Sumana Nandy and Subhranshu Sahu. Harikrishnan Nair.)
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Iron ore falls to a one-month low due to rising supply and China's demand concerns
Iron ore prices fell?on Thursday, to their lowest level in over a month. This was due to a combination of rising supply and a lack of confidence in the prospects for demand in China's top consumer. The most traded?iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed the daytime trade at 750 Yuan ($109.78), its lowest level since March 4. Now, the September contract is the most traded instead of May. The benchmark May ore price on the 'Singapore Exchange' fell by 2.86% at 0700 GMT to $102.75 per ton, after hitting its lowest level since?March 10, when it was $102.1. Iron ore prices are under pressure due to higher shipments, according to analysts at broker Jinyuan Futures. They said that low profitability among steelmakers will disincentivise the mills to ramp up production, indicating a limited upside in demand. Analysts and traders, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue, also said that speculation about a possible agreement between?China's iron ore state buyer and global miner BHP on a 2026 contract term contract weighed heavily on the prices. This is because a resolution to the long-running dispute will increase the availability of spot cargo at ports. The China Mineral Resources Group, which was set up by BHP in 2022 in order to centralise the iron ore supply and get better terms from mines, is locked in a supply contract negotiations with BHP. This has prevented domestic steel mills from purchasing some of BHP's iron ore brands. Brandon Craig, the incoming CEO of BHP, met on Wednesday with the Chairman of the Chinese Aluminium Giant?Chinalco after Craig stated last month that his focus would be on strengthening BHP's relationship in China. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking components fell by 3.19%?and 0.66% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar and hot-rolled coil both fell 0.15% and 0.42% respectively, while stainless steel increased 0.39%. $1 = 6.8316 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu; Beijing newsroom)
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Trafigura signs gold purchase agreement with Ghana's Bogoso Prestea mine
Trafigura, a global commodity trading firm, announced?on Thursday?it?had?signed an offtake agreement with Heath Goldfields Ltd., a Ghanaian-owned mining company. The deal was to purchase 700,000 ounces gold dore at the Bogoso Prestea mine located in western Ghana. Trafigura said in a press release that it would provide $65 million of debt financing in addition to the?offtake in order to support the restart of oxide ore mining operations at the mine. Trafigura stated that it would 'act as an offtaker of gold dore' (a'semi processed gold product? )?generated at the Bogoso Prestea processing facility. Deliveries are expected to begin later this year. Heath Goldfields finished the first gold pour on the site in february, marking the start of production after two years. "Bogoso-Prestea has a strong team of operational?experts, as well as LBMA compliance. We look forward to?applying our physical trading expertise, along with market access, in support of a 'Ghanaian-owned facility of this caliber," said Gonzalo De Olazaval. Trafigura announced that this is its first gold transaction in Ghana and their second on the African continent.
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The UK Foreign Minister says that Israel's bombardment of Lebanon is "deeply damaging".
Yvette Cooper, British Foreign Secretary said that Israel's pounding on?Lebanon is "deeply damaging" and risks destabilizing the ceasefire agreement between the United States of America and Iran. She told Times Radio that she wanted Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire. "We want the ceasefire to be extended to cover Lebanon because that would destabilise the entire?region." "The escalation we saw yesterday from Israel was deeply damaging, and we are calling for an end to hostilities." Britain has been criticized by U.S. president Donald Trump for not doing more to support Washington's war against Iran. It has tried to defend its Gulf allies and is working with other countries to find ways to reopen a key Strait of Hormuz. Cooper, when asked about tensions between London and its U.S. key ally, said that it was possible to maintain a close relationship with Washington while taking a different approach to the region. She argued that some of Trump's words, such as 'when he threatened the destruction of Iran's civilization,' were dangerous. Sky News quoted her as saying: "I believe that the rhetoric we've heard has been completely wrong." "That kind of escalatory language can have escalatory effects."
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Gold prices steady as investors look to US-Iran ceasefire; brace for inflation data
Gold prices remained relatively?stable on Thursday, as investors remained?cautious? about the fragile U.S.Iran ceasefire. A key U.S. Inflation Report due later that day will also be a focus for any interest rate indications. As of 0523 GMT, spot gold increased by 0.1% to $4,721.51 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell by 0.7% to $4744.90. It doesn't seem like gold is doing much right now. Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilver Central, said that there is still "a lot" of speculation about what will happen after the ceasefire. Lan predicted that gold would consolidate in the short term between $4,607 to $4,860. Israel's heaviest strike yet on?Lebanon killed hundreds and prompted a threat from Iran to retaliate. On Thursday, oil prices rose amid concerns that production from the Middle East's key producing region might not resume fully due to doubts about the durability of the ceasefire. Since the beginning of the war on February 28, spot gold prices have fallen by more than 10%. Higher energy prices fuelled inflation fears and caused?markets reassess their interest rate expectations. This reduced non-yielding metal's appeal. Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting held on March 17 and 18 revealed that policymakers believed that additional rate increases could be required to counter the inflation that continues to exceed the central bank's 2% goal. U.S. The Personal Consumption Spending data for February will be released at 1230 GMT. Consumer price data for March, due on Friday, could provide further information on the Fed's policy path. Standard Chartered said in a Wednesday note that "amid increased geopolitical risks, we expect gold will continue to rebuild its losses in the coming month." Other metals include spot silver, which fell by 0.1% per ounce to $74.07, platinum, which lost 0.4% at $2,020.60, and palladium, which rose 0.3% at $1,559. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nandy and Subhranshu Sahu in Bengaluru)
World Bank predicts India will grow 6.6% in FY27; West Asia crisis still persists
The World Bank warned that India's 6.6% economic growth?for fiscal year 2027 may?face significant risk as the Iran War?fans inflation concerns. However, ample foreign exchange buffers, and a well capitalised banking system, could help mitigate this.
There were still doubts about a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East that lasted for two weeks, which raised concerns over energy flow restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. India, which imports 90% of its crude oil, is "among the economies most vulnerable to long-term war-related disruptions in energy supply."
World Bank India's?Economist Aurelien?Kruse stated at a New Delhi news conference on Thursday that retail inflation is expected to be?at 4,9% for the current financial year. This is due to higher food and energy costs and pressure from exchange depreciation, he said.
Investors have already been rattled by the?vulnerability. The rupee fell to a new record low after foreign funds pulled $19 billion out of the markets between March and April.
The central bank of India expects the growth rate to drop to 6.9% by fiscal 2027, from 7.6% expected in fiscal 2026. The average inflation rate for the year is forecast at 4.6%.
Kruse said that the cost of raw materials, energy and petroleum products will increase for the industrial sector.
India's forex ?reserves--sufficient for at least 11 months as per the Reserve Bank of India--could help, the World Bank said. The latest data shows that forex reserves increased to $697.1 billion by April?3, from $688.06 in the previous week.
The World Bank stated that "India is still one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, even with the recent slowdown."
RISE IN DEFICITS
According to the World Bank, India's current-account deficit is expected to rise to 1.8% of GDP in fiscal 2027 due to an increase in energy import bill.
According to the 'bank, the general government fiscal gap is expected to rise marginally, to 7.6% GDP, compared to 7.3% without the conflict. This is because higher energy prices are likely to lead to higher expenditures on fuel and fertilizer subsidies, while lower excise duties will limit revenue growth.
The bank also added that the fiscal deficit will gradually decline over the medium-term.
(source: Reuters)