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Gabon's indecisive push for IMF loans leads to regional return to Fund

After a coup and a controversial election, Gabon has had four different finance ministers in the last three years. It is now turning to the International Monetary Fund for help to 'put its fiscal house back in order.

The Central African OPEC member's financial stability could be improved by its push for an IMF Loan, which is a requirement to unlock investor cash and international funding. This will likely also have significant consequences for its cash-strapped neighbours in the region.

Investors and rating agencies may view the IMF program as 'crucial', but concerns over Gabon's transparency in debt and its willingness to implement tough reforms has led to skepticism.

Jose Mantero is a sovereign analyst with Fitch Ratings.

"A number of significant obstacles remain including the government's aggressive fiscal policy and the possibility of radical, unpopular reforms which would be politically challenging under the current conditions."

The Fund concluded a 10-day trip to Gabon on Friday. It was its first visit since the government announced it wanted an IMF Loan after toying around with the idea for more than a year.

The IMF concluded the visit by saying that talks will continue and adding that prudent policies are critical to safeguarding stability in Gabon as well as the wider region.

The first time since a number of nations in Central African Economic and Monetary Community, (CEMAC), signaled that they would also seek IMF assistance. This was due to a regional funding crisis which has left nations with low ratings with few financing options.

GABON'S DISCREET RECORD AND DATA CONCERNS COMPLICATE IMF PUSH

Gabon's economy has been impacted by years of political instabilities, resulting in a financial crunch. Reserves have also decreased.

The Finance Ministry said that the IMF visit was part of the government's desire to improve transparency, budget rigidity, and sustainability of public finance.

The government still has not made a formal request for a new program to the IMF.

Gabon may have to face a difficult time attracting the Fund due to its inconsistent track record and concerns about transparency. The IMF says that its last programme, a three-year facility which was approved in 2021, "veered off track" only a year after.

Open Data Inventory, a non-profit organization that assesses the transparency of official statistics in a country, places Gabon at 171st place out of 198.

The lack of data is the biggest challenge facing Gabon, said Carmen Altenkirch. She is an emerging markets sovereign analyst with Aviva Investors.

It is difficult to determine how much fiscal adjustment Gabon will need, such as spending cuts, revenue increase, or both.

"We are still concerned about the size of the fiscal expenditure in 2025 and the level of the public debt," said Yvette Baby, a William Blair portfolio manager.

Babb says that because of the fog, it is unlikely that a deal will be reached until later in the year.

The data available is worrying. Fitch Ratings warned last year that a large fiscal deficit in 2026's budget would make it difficult to obtain an IMF loan.

GABON PRESSED TO CLEAN UP IT'S ACT, REGION UNDER STRIKE

The efforts of Gabon to get back in the good graces of IMF matters beyond its borders.

Civil unrest erupted in Cameroon last year, the largest economy of the CEMAC bloc, after a controversial election gave 93-year old President Paul Biya his eighth term. The region is plagued by security issues, including the Chad, Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea.

Fitch Ratings stated that Gabon has a "increasingly relied on the CEMAC Market" for borrowing. However, the serious liquidity crisis in the region will make it difficult to find new funding.

Daniel Lebetkin is the Africa Debt Finance Director at Citi.

The international markets are also costly for Gabon, and other CEMAC nations like Republic of Congo. Both have debt ratios above the critical threshold of 70% of GDP.

In November, Republic of Congo raised 670 million dollars in a private placing priced at a reoffer rate of 13.7%. This is above what many analysts consider sustainable.

Cameroon, and the Republic of Congo, regularly ask investors to provide financing through private placements. Thys Louw, a Portfolio Manager with Ninety One's emerging markets fixed income group, confirmed this.

He said that the only way to save the region was for everyone to be on IMF programs.

Oil producers benefit from recent oil price spikes. The war in the Middle East is to blame for this. Investors said that despite the lack of funding options, debt repayments are looming and this is putting pressure on Gabon.

Babb, William Blair's advisor on Africa, said: "It is a game changer because there are regional pressures on the government of (Gabon) to comply and do what it says."

(source: Reuters)