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Goldman Macquarie raises average nickel price forecasts for 2026 on tighter Indonesian supplies
Goldman Sachs & Macquarie raised their nickel price forecasts for 2026, citing a tighter ore supply in Indonesia after Indonesia signaled its intention to reduce production. Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil lahadalia, sparked an increase in nickel prices by mid-December when he pledged to reduce production. An official from the Energy Ministry confirmed that Indonesia will reduce this year's mining permits to 250 to 260 millions wet tons ore, down from 379 million in 2025. Nickel, the main component of batteries, is produced in Indonesia. Goldman Sachs has raised its nickel price forecast for 2026 to an average of 17200 dollars per ton, up from 14800 dollars, citing a decline in Indonesia's ore supplies to 260,000,000 metric tons. The?bank stated that prices could reach around $18,700 per ton in the second quarter 2026, as tighter ore supply supports the market. The company expects that supply will increase later this year, as additional approvals bring the output back to 300 million tons. This will return the refined market to an?surplus? of 191,000 tons. Prices are expected to fall to $15,500 per tonne by the end of 2026. Macquarie has also raised its forecast for the average LME nickel price in 2026 to $17750 per ton, up from $15,000. Macquarie stated that the tightening of Indonesia's supply would have a net impact on its projection for?the global Nickel market balance?, which is now projected to be a surplus of 90,000 tonnes, down from 250,000 tonnes. Macquarie assumes that the Indonesian government is going to fine-tune their mining quota policies (RKAB), to aim nickel prices at around $18,000 per ton. LME nickel ended Tuesday at about $17,447 per ton. (Reporting Anushree mukherjee in Bengaluru and Anmol choubey; editing by Lisa Shumaker.)
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Suncor Energy exceeds its quarterly profit expectations on the basis of higher production
Suncor Energy, a Canadian energy company, beat its fourth-quarter profit expectations on Tuesday. Higher production helped to offset the impact of low commodity prices. Suncor and other Canadian oil sands companies have remained resilient despite a 'global oil 'industry decline, due to economic uncertainty caused by the U.S. Tariff Policy, and OPEC+ pumping out more barrels. Years of investment has supported production and kept producers among North America’s lowest-cost operators. Suncor's quarterly upstream?production increased to 909,000 barrels a day from 875,000 barrels a day a year ago. Suncor's refinery output increased by 18,000 barrels per day to 504,000 bpd in the last quarter, and refinery utilization rose to 108% compared to 104%. In extended trading, U.S. listed shares of the Company were up 1.9%. Canadian oil producers benefit from the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline, which opens up access to global markets while reducing their dependency on U.S. pipe systems. Canada exports almost 4 million bpd of oil to the United States. Results are contrary to peer Imperial Oil, which said last week that lower global oil prices in the quarter as well as wet October weather had caused production problems at its Kearl Oil Sands Mine in northern Alberta. December Suncor has forecast lower spending for 2026 despite increased oil and gas production. It is increasing output, tightening costs and boosting shareholder returns through an expanded share-buyback program. Suncor, based in Calgary, Alberta, expects to produce upstream oil and gas between 840,000 and?870,000 barrels per day (bpd) next year. This is up from the 810,000 to?840,000 bpd estimate it made for 2025. According to LSEG, the company reported an adjusted profit per share of C$1.10 for the quarter ending December 31, exceeding analysts' average estimates of C$1 each. (Reporting and editing by Alan Barona, Tasim Zahid, and Katha Kalia from Bengaluru)
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Zelenskiy: Russia has snubbed Ukraine's energy with diplomatic insults
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, accused Russia of exploiting an energy truce backed by the United States to stockpile weapons and use them to attack Ukraine using hundreds of drones as well as a record number ballistic missiles a day before peace talks. Zelenskiy stated that Ukraine is waiting for the U.S. response to Russia's attack overnight which damaged Ukraine's infrastructure. Washington had already prompted a "short-lived" ceasefire on?attacks against energy targets. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, told reporters that Vladimir Putin, the Russian president had signed an agreement which expired on Sunday. He said, "It's Sunday to Sunday and he hit hard last night." "He kept his promise on that... we'll accept anything because it's so cold there." It was Sunday and he went back to Sunday. When asked if he felt disappointed, Trump responded: "I would like him to end the conflict." In freezing temperatures, the attack knocked down heating in many cities, including Kyiv. Ukrainian negotiators were on their way to Abu Dhabi, where a second trilateral round, mediated by the U.S., was scheduled for Wednesday and/or Thursday. Zelenskiy said on X that "it was a deliberate attack on energy infrastructure, involving a large number of ballistic rockets." A day earlier, Zelenskiy had stated that Moscow had largely adhered to the moratorium on energy facilities agreed between the two parties. The Russian army exploited U.S. "The Russian army exploited the?U.S. UKRAINE UNDER PRESSURE The U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to accept a peace agreement, while Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy system seem to be aimed at freezing Ukrainians to submission. After the first trilateral meeting in late January, there was no progress on territorial issues. Moscow demanded that Kyiv cede additional land in eastern Ukraine. Kyiv refused. Zelenskiy, in a more aggressive tone than he had used the previous days, said that the work of Ukraine’s negotiators will be "adjusted appropriately" following the attack. He did not provide any details. He told reporters at a Kyiv press conference that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was attending, that Ukraine would contact Washington to discuss possible new sanctions for Russia. In his video nightly address,?Zelenskiy stated: "We are expecting a response from America to the 'Russian strikes. It was the American proposal to stop attacks on energy infrastructure in order to support diplomatic efforts during winter and cold weather. Zelenskiy stated that Ukraine was expected to make some concessions but it is also up to Russia, in order to "stop the aggression." He asked: "If the United States and Europe do not have the ability to stop Russian attacks, then who will believe that there is a power to guarantee the war won't re-ignite?" NEW ATTACKS ON ENERGY SYSTEM Officials from Ukraine said that Russia used 450 drones, 70 missiles and other weapons in attacks which injured at least 12 people. The strikes also targeted apartment blocks and energy infrastructure while temperatures hovered between -20 Celsius and -4 Fahrenheit. A strike that occurred early Tuesday evening in Zaporizhzhia, a city located in the south-east of Ukraine, killed two 18-year olds and injured nine others. Oleksiy Kuleba, Deputy Prime Minister, stated that 1,142 apartment blocks in Kyiv were still without heating. Officials in Kharkiv (Ukraine's second largest city) reported 270,000 residents living in unheated flats. Kharkiv mayor Ihor Terekhov posted on Telegram that the goal was to destroy as much as possible and leave the city in extreme cold without heat. He also said that a city thermal plant had been severely damaged. Denys Shmyhal, the Energy Minister of Ukraine, said that a power station in Kyiv’s eastern suburbs was also severely damaged. Officials were evaluating how to redirect funds to restore heating. Last week, Russia and Ukraine announced that they had stopped?strikes against each other's infrastructure. However, they were at odds over the duration of the moratorium. The Kremlin claimed it ended on Sunday. Kyiv stated that it would last until Friday. A new wave of freezing temperatures has gripped much of Ukraine after the coldest January in six years, according to experts. Many families are trapped in dark and icy apartments due to power cuts and heating problems that can last for hours or days. Natalia Hlobenko (35), a Kyiv resident, describes?how, on Tuesday, she covered her son, aged 11, just before an explosion sprayed broken glass all over her apartment. Where is the ceasefire? Hlobenko, wrapped in her windowless flat and wailing with tears, said. "How much can we handle?" STICKING POINT REMAINS IN TALKS Zelenskiy said previously that Ukraine, which is "struggling" to stop the Russian battlefield advances on its borders, was prepared for "substantive talks". Moscow and Kyiv both blame the other for failing to reach a peace agreement. The main issue is territory. Ukraine refuses to cede the 20% of eastern Donetsk region that Moscow cannot conquer after its invasion in 2022. Ukraine's chief negotiator stated that Ukrainian officials will first have bilateral talks in Abu Dhabi with U.S. officials to discuss U.S. guarantees of security for any peace agreement and a reconstruction package after the war, and then hold a tripartite meeting involving Russian representatives. (Additional reporting from Yurii Kovalenko and Anna Pruchnicka; Writing by Dan Peleschuk, Timothy Heritage, and Ron Popeski; Editing by Daniel Flynn and Timothy Heritage)
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Marathon Petroleum buys Venezuelan crude for US refineries
Marathon Petroleum bought two cargoes Venezuelan crude oil at the end of January, and executives expect their refineries to process more heavy grades. Refiners in the United States are expected to gain from President Donald Trump’s efforts to increase output in Venezuela, and to rebuild the country's deteriorating oil sector after the capture of Nicolas Maduro last month. Since Washington and Caracas met, Venezuelan crude oil exports have risen. Deal worth $2 Billion Last month, U.S. Gulf Coast Complex Refineries The U.S. produces heavy sour oil, but Venezuela's is more suitable for processing. Maryann Mannen, CEO of Marathon Oil, said: "We see the access to Venezuelan crude oil as a positive for U.S. Energy and specifically for Marathon Oil." LEANING INTO HEAVY CRUDE Chief Commercial Officer Rick Hessling stated that "right now, the signals point towards a heavier, more sour slate. We are therefore leaning in significantly." The refiner runs 50% sweet crudes, and 50% sour in its entire refining system. Mannen stated that the prices for Western Canadian Select were the highest to date. ?If the economics warrant it, however, their refineries - including the 606,000-barrels-per-day facility in Garyville, Louisiana - have the ability to quickly pivot ?to process Venezuelan crude, she added. Venezuelan heavy crude oil cargoes For delivery at the Gulf Coast, crude oil was being sold at a price of $9.50 per barrel below Brent benchmark while Canadian WCS for delivery to 'the Gulf Coast' was trading at a $10.25 discount under Brent futures. Marathon's refinery, which produces 631,000 barrels per day in Galveston Bay (Texas), is also able to run Venezuelan crude. Valero Energy, Phillips 66 and other refiners have also bought Venezuelan crude as part of Washington's deal with Caracas.
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Official: US kills Iranian drone that was approaching an aircraft carrier
U.S. Military said that on Tuesday, they shot down an Iranian drone which "aggressively approached" the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea. This was first reported by the U.S. U.S. President Donald Trump said that if the nuclear talks between Iran & United States could not be arranged, then "bad things" might happen. The incident occurred as diplomats were trying to set up nuclear talks. After the news that the drone had been shot down, oil futures prices increased by more than $1 per barrel. The U.S. Military said that the Iranian Shahed-139 drone flew toward the carrier with "uncertain intent" and was shot down by a F-35 fighter jet. A spokesperson for the Central Command of the U.S. Military, Navy Captain Tim Hawkins said that the F-35C jet shot down the Iranian drone in self-defense to protect the aircraft carriers and the personnel aboard. The Iranian U.N. Mission declined to comment. Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that a connection was lost with a "drone" in international waters. However, the reason for this loss is unknown. He added that no American servicemen were injured and that there was no damage to U.S. equipment. The Lincoln carrier-strike group is part of the U.S. military buildup that has taken place in the Middle East after a violent crackdown on anti-government protests in Iran last month. This was the deadliest unrest domestically in Iran since the 1979 revolution. Trump, who did not carry out his threats to intervene in the crackdown but demanded that Tehran make nuclear concessions, sent a flotilla near its coast and has now called on Tehran to do so. He claimed that Iran was "seriously speaking" last week, while Tehran's top official in security, Ali Larijani, announced that negotiations were underway. IRANIAN BOATS HARASS U.S. FLAGged TANKER According to the U.S. military, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps harassed an American-crewed merchant ship on Tuesday, hours after the drone was shot down. military. Hawkins stated that "two IRGC boats, and an Iranian Mohajer Drone approached M/V Stena Imperative with high speeds and threatened board the tanker and seize it." Vanguard, a maritime risk management company, said that the Iranian boats had ordered the tanker?to stop its engine and get ready to board. The tanker instead accelerated and continued its journey. Hawkins stated that a U.S. Navy Warship, the McFaul was operating in the region and escorted Stena Imperative. Hawkins said that the situation has de-escalated and is now proceeding in a safe manner. Reporting by Idrees Al and Phil Stewart, Editing by Chizu Nimiyama and Rod Nickel
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Burgum, US Interior Secretary, says that 30 countries are interested in joining the club of critical minerals.
The United States says that about 30 countries are interested in joining a group of partners and allies to trade critical minerals, reducing their dependence on China. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum spoke at a Tuesday conference. Burgum, the U.S. National Energy Dominance Council's head, told a conference on Tuesday that countries such as Japan, Australia, and South Korea had joined the club. Burgum, who is also the head of the U.S. National Energy Dominance Council, said that countries such as Japan and Australia have joined the club. Burgum also said that up to 20 more countries are "very interested" in joining this club which offers tariff-free exchanges, a price floor on minerals and free trade. "Typically, the United States We're "free-market people", we don't mess with markets. Burgum explained that if someone is dominant and can flood the market, they are able to destroy the value of the production or company. Washington is taking steps to counter what it believes are Chinese price manipulations of lithium, nickel, and rare earths, which are vital for making electronic devices, high-tech weapons, and electronic components. The President of the United States, Donald Trump On Monday, the?Strategic Minerals Stockpile (also known as Project Vault The $10 billion loan by the U.S. Export Import Bank is backed up by?nearly 2 billion dollars in private capital, which private companies can?access. The U.S. Defense Department maintains its own stockpile. Burgum said that the price floors supported the by the Minerals Club would attract long-term investment. Burgum stated that the private sector could invest in mining and refinery, confident there would be a market. They wouldn't need to worry about prices falling.
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Marathon Petroleum profits beat Wall Street expectations on strong refining and utilization margins
Marathon Petroleum announced a fourth-quarter profit that was above Wall Street expectations?on Tuesday?, as a 44% increase in refining profits underscored a stronger operational performance. On Tuesday, shares of the top refiner in the country were up 2.6% to $181.56. Fuel manufacturers made unexpected profits in 2018 as margins rebounded after a multi-year low in 2024, when earnings were at their lowest since the pandemic. BOOST STRONG REFINING MARKES Maria Khoury said, "We took advantage of a favorable refining environment, while executing our turnarounds on schedule and safely," during a conference call on Tuesday. The quarter's refining margin reached $18.65 a barrel, an increase of more than 44% compared to a previous year. This boosted its refinement and marketing earnings from $559 million in the prior year to $2 billion. LSEG data shows that the adjusted profit per share for the?quarter came in at $4.07, compared to an average analyst estimate of $2.88. This helped the company to?counter an increase of 46% in quarterly turnaround costs for its refineries, which amounted to $410,000,000. Valero Energy, second largest refiner in the United States by capacity, also beat earnings expectations last week on the back of improved refining margins as well as record throughput volumes. The high utilization of refining and the throughput were also supportive. During the quarter, the refiner operated its refineries around 95% of the time. Total throughput was just under?3million barrels per day. Executives said that its 606,000 barrels per day Garyville, Louisiana refinery, and its 253,000 barrels per day Robinson, Illinois refinery, both set monthly crude throughput records. Marathon anticipates throughput volumes of 2.74 million barrels a day and turn-around expenses of $465 millions for the first quarter. NEW REFINING PROJECTS The Findlay, Ohio based?refiner announced on Tuesday three new projects to optimize their Gulf Coast refineries. The Garyville refinery will upgrade its feedstock and increase flexibility to produce additional export premium gasoline. The refinery in El Paso, Texas (133,000 bpd) will also upgrade its fluid catalytic crackeder and alkylation unit. These projects will add approximately $200 million to the?capital budget of this year. Refiners also expect to reap the benefits of a full-scale resume in Venezuelan oil production and lower fuel costs. The refinery's 631,000 bpd refinery located in Galveston Bay (Texas) and Garyville refinery can run Venezuelan crude.
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Brazil's mining regulator states that the waste piles of Sigma Lithium do not pose an 'imminent danger'.
The agency said in a Monday evening statement that the waste piles of Sigma Lithium at a Brazilian mining site do not pose an "imminent threat" and the country's regulator for mining did not see the need to close them down during a recent visit. ANM's Technical Staff visited the mine in January, about a month after labor inspectors had shut down the piles because they warned of an "imminent and grave risk" for workers and local residents. Sigma's share price fell by 30% following the shutdown. The inspectors' decision was reported on January 15, 2019. ANM's report does not change the Brazilian Labor Ministry's order, but it is a positive for the Toronto listed miner. It could be used as evidence to challenge the government of Brazil in a suit filed in early January by Sigma, which seeks an overturning of the closures at its waste heaps. The company announced Monday that they were resuming their mining activities at the Grota do Cirilo Mine in Minas Gerais. They had previously stated that the shutdown of the waste piles would not affect the schedule of resuming the production. The firm had previously stated in documents submitted to the Labor Ministry that the loss of access to the piles could have "significant economic and operational impacts" as well as jeopardizing mining activities. Sigma refused to comment due to "ongoing legal proceedings" in various jurisdictions. BRAZIL'S LARGEST LITHIUM MINE Sigma's Grota do Cirilo operation, its sole productive asset, is "Brazil's biggest lithium mine" with a capacity of 270,000 tons of lithium concentrat per year. It was inactive since October. ANM said that during the visit its technical staff inspected the piles and reviewed the documentation provided by the miner. In a press release, the ANM said that its technicians had not found any geotechnical anomalies that could indicate an imminent danger of global pile destabilization. The agency did find some problems during its visit but added that it "did not see any reason" to "adopt precautionary measures like the closure" of the piles at the time." ANM has informed Sigma that it lacks a surface water drainage system. However, the company added that this issue is not "associated with imminent risk", but rather a regulatory failure on the part of the firm. A "partial rupture", as described by labor inspectors, was also dismissed at one of the waste heaps near an elementary school. ANM said the problem was "localized erosion" of a pile, which indicated "local stability" but did not pose an immediate threat to local residents. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci; Fabio Teixeira)
India will purchase US arms, aircraft and energy
Officials from both countries confirmed that India would grant the United States limited access to the market for agricultural products, but still maintain important protections. This was announced as the outline of a trade deal aimed at reducing tariffs between U.S. president Donald Trump and Indian president Narendra Modi began to take shape. U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer said to CNBC that the deal will reduce India's duties on American industrial products from 13.5% to zero and eliminate duties on U.S. fruit, vegetables, tree nuts, wine, and spirits. In exchange, the United States reduces its tariffs against Indian goods from 50% to 18%. This agreement follows months of tensions that have begun to ease between Trump and Modi in recent weeks. It also follows the big trade deal signed by Modi last month with the European Union. The agreement gives Trump a much-needed economic and foreign policy victory amid the domestic political turmoil that followed the murder of two U.S. Citizens by federal agents in Minneapolis during a crackdown against immigrants. A government official in India said on Tuesday that India will gradually increase its purchases of U.S. aircraft, pharmaceuticals, and defense and telecom products as part of this deal. The deal includes a multiyear commitment to purchase $500 billion of American goods.
The official added that the pact would be completed over time.
Official added that the deal includes a reduction in tariffs immediately on American cars.
No one has given a date of the start of the deal. Greer stated that U.S. officials and Indian officials are still working on putting the terms of the trade deal in writing. An official from the United States said that they hoped to finish this work by next week.
The agreement also requires India to stop its?purchases if Russian oil, in exchange for lower U.S. Tariffs on Indian Goods and the elimination of a 25% punitive tariff related to Russian Oil that Trump imposed last august.
The official from the United States said that the move was made possible by U.S. efforts to ease sanctions against the sale of Venezuelan crude oil, and by an explicit offer to India to resume its purchases.
The official stated that "it's objectively big news that we negotiated a deal with India on trade and that we resolved the long-standing oil issue which the Biden administration also raised." "There are two historic outcomes to this."
PARTIAL WIN AGRICULTURE
Greer stated that the two countries would finish putting the agreement on paper. "But we know all the specifics and details."
Greer said India will continue to fight for access, even though it would maintain some protections in "key areas" within its politically significant farm sector.
Greer stated that India's tariff cuts for nuts, fruits, vegetables, wine, and spirits were a "big victory" for U.S. Farmers, as it opened a market to over a billion people for more U.S. products. Greer didn't mention new U.S. market access for rice, beef or soybeans. She also did not mention sugar, dairy products, or sugar. These are commodities India has been very protective about and excluded from the recent trade agreement with the European Union.
Greer stated that the United States will maintain an 18% duty on Indian goods due to the size and growth in India's trade surplus with the U.S. This reached $53.5 billion over the first 11 month of 2025 up from $45.8 for the entire year of 2024.
The U.S. Tariff on Indian goods is lower than Trump's tariff of 19-20% for India's main Asian competitors Vietnam (or Thailand), Indonesia, and Bangladesh but higher than Japan (15%), South Korea (15%), and the EU (15%).
MODI'S MOMENT
According to a former U.S. government official close to the Trump Administration, the negotiations?for this deal had been dragging on for months. However, they came together quickly after Modi called Trump last week to thank him for helping India avoid conflict with Pakistan.
Former official stated that the terms of the deal were less appealing for India than they would have been if it had been done last summer. Former official said that India could have negotiated a 15% lower tariff rate and other provisions relating to generic drugs and micro-electronics.
An official from the United States familiar with the deal said that the target tariff rate was not determined in the summer of last year. The two sides agreed to lower the 25% rate for each country, but the replacement rate "wasn't set in stone."
The official stated that "there wasn't an agreement on the table with X,Y,Z provisions that they had agreed on." "We could have discussed these things more."
Non-tariff Barriers
Greer stated that the Trump Administration reached an "understanding with the Indians and also an agreement on a number of technical barriers to the trade in areas where the Indians have not accepted U.S. Standards. We know American products are safe."
Greer stated that there will be a "process for recognizing U.S. Standards", but India will need to follow its own political process in order to accept these standards.
Greer stated that India has been working to reduce imports of Russian crude oil since the end of last year. Greer said that India "made the right decision" by diversifying its energy purchases from Russia to the United States, Venezuela and other countries.
(source: Reuters)