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WTI Oil Discount to Brent is the largest it has been in eight months, as more Venezuelan oil is expected in US
Analysts and traders said that the discount between U.S. Crude Futures and the global benchmark Brent, has increased by about $1 per barrel, since the U.S. ousted Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro in January and took control over the South American nation's oil flow. The U.S. has redirected millions of those?barrels? to U.S. port, a move which is likely to boost U.S. Crude exports in the months to come. According to LSEG, U.S. Crude futures traded at a $4.76 a bar discount to Brent Futures on Tuesday. This was the largest since April. Investors believe that the possibility of more Venezuelan barrels being shipped to the U.S. is widening this spread, and opening up an arbitrage opportunity for traders as shipping costs from Europe and Asia increase. After U.S. forces capture Maduro, and Washington reaches an agreement with Caracas' interim government within days, up to 50 million barrels?Venezuelan oil?will enter the U.S. The WTI/Brent spread increased by 21% in the past week. This is the biggest weekly increase since June 2025. Traders usually seek a $4 discount on U.S. Crude Futures compared to Brent in order to make a profit from their exports, which includes costs like shipping U.S. Crude across the Atlantic. According to Kpler, the ship tracking company, U.S. exports averaged 3.7 million barrels of crude per day in December. Matt Smith, Kpler's lead oil analyst, believes that higher Venezuelan flows could boost U.S. crude exports by 100,000 bpd during the first three months of 2019. According to Kpler's analysis, U.S. oil exports reached a record of 4,47 million bpd by March 2023. The WTI discount at the time was $6.50. Since January 5, the spread between WTI Brent has been increasing for seven consecutive trading sessions. Brent is gaining more than WTI due to the escalating tensions with Iran. Venezuelan cargoes are expected to begin loading for the U.S. this week, reducing gains in U.S. crude oil futures on the expectation of abundant supplies. Dylan White, Director of North American Crude Markets at Wood Mackenzie, said that a heavier U.S. oil diet would push more WTI barrels to export markets. As more exports are cleared into a global market that is oversupplied, WTI relative prices will discount even further. A?freight broker who was not authorized by the government to speak publicly stated that the WTI-Brent differential will ultimately be determined by how much Venezuelan oil enters into the U.S., replacing U.S. crude which would have been refined locally. The trader stated that if a larger U.S. oil surplus is created, these barrels would likely be shipped to Europe or farther east. Sparta Commodities analysts said that the price of North Sea Forties crude oil in Europe was $1.30 per barrel higher than the WTI Aframax cargoes for early March. They added that such a premium is not sustained for very long. Brent crude oil premium over Middle East benchmark Dubai reached its highest level since July on Tuesday, according to LSEG data. If China decides to buy again and Iranian crude becomes unavailable because of the blockade, or new sanctions, any alternative buying in Middle Eastern grades would be felt more in Brent than WTI, said John Evans, an analyst at PVM oil Associates.
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The IEA warns that increasing oil production in Venezuela would only yield short-term gains.
The International Energy Agency's chief energy economist said that it will take some time to ramp up oil production after years of neglect in Venezuela. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has asked U.S. oil companies to invest $100 billion in rebuilding Venezuela's industry after U.S. troops removed Venezuela's president on January 3, during an overnight raid by U.S. forces. The IEA Chief Energy Economist, Tim 'Gould, told a?energy conference held in Norway on Tuesday that the short-term implication of Venezuelan developments are likely to be relatively limited. Official data show that Venezuela has the largest estimated oil reserves in the world, but its crude production remains at a fraction due to decades' worth of mismanagement, lack of investment, and sanctions. "I find it a little misleading when you hear all the talk about Venezuela having the largest oil resources or reserves. Gould stated that they are not easy to produce and to sell. He added that Venezuela's "dilapidated and antiquated" oil infrastructure needs to be re-invested in before it can begin bringing its resources to market. Bill Berkrot edited the report by Nerijus Adomiaitis.
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Scott Adams, creator of the 'Dilbert" comic strip and Trump supporter, has died at age 68
Scott Adams, the creator of "Dilbert", a comic strip that was a vocal supporter Donald Trump, but whose career suffered after a "racist rant", died on Tuesday. His wife confirmed this. He was 68. Shelly Miles read out a message from Adams in an online livestream. The artist's strip, which was framed by the engineer with glasses and a perpetually bent tie, lampooned corporate America. Adams had 'posted on X regarding his metastatic prostate cancer decline and made a 'direct appeal to Trump in order to get his healthcare provider Kaiser Permanente Northern - California to schedule treatment using the targeted radiotherapy drug Pluvicto. In a social media post from November 2, Trump replied, "On it." The Republican President noted on Tuesday that the cartoonist had passed Truth Social. Scott Adams has sadly passed away. He was an amazing guy who respected and liked me even when it wasn't trendy to do so. Trump wrote that he bravely fought against a terrible illness. The first "Dilbert' comic strip appeared in 1989. It ran for many decades. It was at its height one of the most popular comic strips in the U.S. but it was dropped by many newspapers in 2023 following a racist rant on YouTube. Adams called Black Americans a 'hate group' and suggested that white Americans "get the hell away from Blacks" in response to a poll conducted by a conservative organization purporting to prove that many African-Americans don't think it is OK to be a white person. Later, he said his remarks were meant as hyperbole. He also disavowed racism and claimed that the media had not taken into account his context. (Reporting and editing by Doina chiacu, Scott Malone, and Sharon Singleton).
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Davos starts a new era of grappling with the global order that has been shaken by Trump
Next week, business and political leaders will be attending the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos to test their vision of a global economic order based on rules. The expected appearance of U.S. president Donald 'Trump' in the Swiss resort shows the difference between his agenda, and the consensus-driven approach taken by the?the?WEF. This organization has been criticized for years as a talk shop for the rich. His "America First' policy has resulted in trade tariffs as punishment, military interventions in Venezuela, a threat to take over Greenland with force, and the U.S. retreating from international cooperation on climate change, health, and other global issues. The Trump administration also threatened Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell with criminal indictment. This prompted many central bankers to release a statement that defended him and the independence of central banks. The WEF leaders have dubbed their 56th edition, "A Spirit of Dialogue". They say that in light of the current uncertainty it is important to get together and map out a path forward for business and politics. Former Norwegian Minister, Borge Brende, the WEF's president and CEO, said: "Dialogue isn't a luxury. It is a need." Others say the WEF is at risk of obsolescence because the U.S., China and other countries are using their power to serve national interests. Who will be the one to make the case for "the rules-based order?" Daniel Woker is a former Swiss Ambassador and expert in foreign relations. It has no purpose to exist, to be blunt. In a system in which everyone only looks out for themselves. It's a?past event." Davos observers are also examining whether the event's momentum has waned since its founder Klaus Schwab, 87 years old, stepped down from his role as chairperson in April. In August, the Geneva-based organization said that an internal investigation found "no evidence" of Schwab's misconduct after receiving a letter from a whistleblower. The interim co-chairs were named as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, and Roche vice chair Andre Hoffmann. The WEF announced that more than 3,000 delegates, including 64 head of state and governments, will be attending, especially from emerging economies. The forum's latest edition has a lot to talk about, including how to deal with Trump's version, which establishes U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere. It also discusses the impact of artificial intelligence on the world. This tragedy comes after the worst Swiss modern tragedy, an inferno at a ski resort's bar that claimed 40 lives. OIL MAKES a Comeback The WEF's pre-event press briefings have put a positive spin on the turmoil in the world, by highlighting the efforts of companies to adapt to U.S. Tariff rates that are the highest since the Great Depression, and hinting at a possible easing of tensions between the U.S. and other countries as late 2025 approaches. A WEF survey of executives, released last week, showed that business was harder in 2025. The survey also showed a bleak picture of the cooperation in peace and security. As several European leaders are expected to attend, attention will be focused on their responses to U.S. challenges. This includes Trump's threats of taking over Greenland and attacks on European attempts to regulate American technology firms. Christy Hoffman is the General Secretary of UNI Global Union, which represents?20 millions service sector workers in over 20 countries. She has urged policymakers and employers to consider how AI, new technologies, and other disruptive technologies will impact employment. WEF's Managing Director Saadia Zaidi stated that the forum aimed to understand whether AI would augment people or if a world could emerge which could create a white-collar Rust Belt. This year's WEF will feature top oil executives eagerly waiting to hear Trump promote his energy dominance program, which encourages oil and gas drilling while ignoring green alternatives such as wind and solar. Exxon Mobil CEOs, Shell CEOs, TotalEnergies CEOs, Equinor CEOs and ENI's are expected to attend after sporadic participation in the past, when oil companies viewed the forum as being anti-fossil. Brende, WEF's CEO, said that China's delegation would be "big", and headed by Vice Premier He Lifeng. (Additional reporting from Selena Li and Emma Farge in Hong Kong; Dmitry Zhdannikov, Mark John and Mark John, in London. Editing by Alexander Smith, Heinrich and Heinrich.
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TSX reaches new highs on mining and energy boom
Canada's main stock index reached a new record on Tuesday, thanks to gains in mining and energy stocks. Investors also analyzed U.S. inflation figures for clues about the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy. As of 10:43 a.m., the S&P/TSX composite index was 0.2% higher at 32,924.5. ET, the index briefly touched an intraday high of 32,978.58 points earlier in session. Energy sector gains 2% as crude oil prices rise, as fears of supply disruptions from unrest in Iran outweigh the prospects for increased production in Venezuela. Materials sub-index, which includes precious metals miners, rose 1.2%, reaching a new peak, after gold and silver reached record highs. SSR Mining, a mining company, and?Cenovus energy, an oil producer?were the two top?gainers? on the TSX with gains of around 4%. Industrials, however, fell by 0.9%, and financial stocks dropped by 0.3%. This kept the gains of broader indexes in check. The data showed that U.S. consumer price increases in December were in line with the expectations. This confirmed bets on the Fed keeping interest rates the same at their meeting this month. However, it also left room for rate reductions later in the year. "Central banks have shown that they are able to be a lot data-driven." "If the data remains in line, there is a good chance of a cut," said Shiraz Ahmed, founder and CEO of Sartorial Wealth. The jobs data released last week in Canada did not change traders' expectations that the central bank of Canada would keep rates unchanged during its own policy meeting later this month. Canada also seeks to diversify its trade to avoid its main market of the U.S. due to unreliable trade policies. Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, is scheduled to arrive in China Tuesday. This will be the first time since 2017 that a Canadian leader has visited the Asian nation. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Ananda in Bengaluru, Utkarsh T. Hathi from Bengaluru)
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Silver also sets new record highs as Fed rate cuts bets are backed by inflation data. Gold records new highs
The price of gold hit a new record on Tuesday as U.S. inflation data fueled bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year. As of 11:21 am, spot gold rose 0.4% to $4.609.69 an ounce. ET (1621 GMT), after a session high of $4634.33. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery rose by 0.1% to $4 617.90. David Meger said that the CPI data was a factor in the slight 'positive' tone in the market. This is because the CPI data indicates a greater likelihood of future Fed rate cuts. The core Consumer Price Index for the U.S. The core Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% from one month to the next and 2.6% annually in December, but fell short of analyst expectations for 0.3% and 2.7% respectively. Trump reiterated after the inflation figures his desire to reduce interest rates "meaningfully". Investors expect the Fed to maintain rates at its meeting on January 27-28, but they are currently expecting two rate cuts in 2018. Low interest rates are generally favorable for non-yielding gold. Meger said that fundamental factors such as geopolitical tensions, questions about Fed independence and concerns over the Fed's independence continue to support gold as a safe haven. Concerns about the independence of the Fed grew when Trump opened a criminal probe into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, drawing criticisms from former Fed Chiefs and global central banks. Trump has also threatened a 25% tariff for countries that trade with Iran. This could reopen old wounds between Beijing and Tehran, which is Tehran's main partner. Overnight, Russia also attacked cities in Ukraine with missiles. Commerzbank has raised its gold forecast for 2026 to $4,900. CME Group announced on Monday that it would adjust the margins for precious metals to reflect market volatility. Spot silver, which had earlier reached an all-time session high of $89.10, gained 4.7% and is now trading at $88.90 per ounce. "Despite technical indicators screaming a correction, traders still favor bullish options for?silver )... despite the high volatility environment," said Hugo Pascal a precious metals dealer at InProved. Palladium increased 1.5% and spot platinum by 0.1%, to $1,870 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Vijay Kishore, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
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Microsoft announces initiative to reduce data center power costs and water usage impact
Microsoft announced on Tuesday a plan to reduce water consumption at its U.S. Data Centers and the potential impact of rising power prices on the general public. Politicians?across America?are urging an expansion of the data-center?capacity?and new energy production in order to keep the U.S. competitive in AI. Local communities, however, are concerned about the impact of the energy-hungry data centers on their utility bills, and how they will use water, land and other resources in the area. Microsoft has said that it will pay high utility rates to cover its power costs, and work with local utilities when necessary to increase supply for its data centers. It also promised to replenish more than the water its data centers use. The company said it would begin publishing information on?water consumption for each region of data center in the U.S. along with its progress towards replenishment. Brad Smith, Microsoft Vice Chair and president, said that it was unfair and unrealistic to ask the public to pay for additional electricity costs for AI. The company failed to respond to an inquiry seeking details about its financial initiative. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that ahead of the announcement on Monday, the tech giant will make "major" changes to its AI infrastructure plans in order to reduce data center power costs for Americans. "Data centers will be key (to the U.S. AI Boom) but big tech companies that build them have to 'pay for themselves'. Microsoft deserves congratulations. "More to come very soon," Trump wrote in a post on social media. Trump faces increasing pressure from the public to reduce rising costs of living ahead of this year's midterm elections. CNBC reported in November that Microsoft had withdrawn its plans to build a new data center in Wisconsin due to opposition from local residents. As part of its investment, the company announced on Tuesday it would support a new rate structure to prevent power costs for data centers from being passed onto consumers. Microsoft will also provide AI literacy to local communities, and train residents to fill jobs in its data centers. Reporting by Deborah Sophia, Bengaluru. Editing by Shilpa Majumdar and Sriraj Kalluvila.
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The Ukrainian parliament has blocked Zelenskiy as energy minister
Denys Schmyhal, the outgoing chief of defence in Ukraine, was not approved as Energy Minister by Ukrainian lawmakers. This is a rare rebuke to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy who is attempting to shake up important sectors at this critical time in the war against Russia. Shmyhal was appointed by Zelenskiy, the former prime minister, to "steer" an energy sector hampered by allegations of corruption and Russian attacks on infrastructure. Last year, the last permanent energy ministry was dismissed in a corruption scandal that implicated also her predecessor. Shmyhal’s appointment failed to receive the 226 votes needed, with only 210 legislators voting for it and three opposition parties abstaining. The job was proposed as part of an extensive government reshuffle, with Kyiv under increasing Russian pressure in the run-up to the fourth anniversary next month of Moscow's invasion. Some opposition legislators had criticised this wartime reshuffle before Tuesday's session. Solomiia bobrovska, who is a member of the liberal opposition Holos Party and sits on the national defence committee in parliament, believes that replacing Shmyhal would be disruptive for a ministry which still needs to "build its own strength". Holos was one of the parties to abstain. (Reporting and writing by Yuliia Dyesa, Dan Peleschuk; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne & Peter Graff).
The Russian energy tax is calculated using the indicator oil price, which has fallen to a 79-month-low.
Data from the Russian government showed that last month, the indicative price of crude oil, used by it to calculate taxes payable by energy companies, fell to its lowest level since May 2020. This indicates a shrinking in state revenue.
State energy revenues, mainly from the mineral extract tax calculated using the monthly average indicative price set up by the government, dropped?by 22 percent from January to November of 2025. They are on track to be at their lowest level since 2020.
The Economy Ministry said that the 'indicative price' for December 2025 taxes would be $39 per barrel, down $45 from November. The price for the indicative blend is based on market prices of Russia's Urals oil and more expensive ESPO blends.
Due to 'Western sanctions,' Russian oil is sold at a discounted price internationally. The average indicative price dropped to $55.60 per barrel in 2025 from $67.90 a year earlier, which is below the $58 budgeted.
The budget for 2026 was drafted by the government using the $59 barrel as the average indicative price. The average indicative price in December 2025 is used to calculate the taxes payable in January 2026. Reporting by Darya Kosunskaya, Writing by Gleb Brynski, Editing by David Goodman
(source: Reuters)