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Stocks rise on expectations of Fed cuts, but sterling falls after UK budget shock

The global stock market advanced for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, as expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut were unchanged. Sterling was whipped around by Britain's Fiscal Watchdog accidentally publishing new forecasts prior to a UK Budget release. U.S. stock prices were up on Wall Street. The tech sector led the way, with gains of almost 1.5%, partly due to Dell Technologies' nearly 7% jump after its quarterly results. Since Friday, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen. This was after New York Fed president John Williams stated that interest rates could fall in the short term while other policymakers said borrowing costs should stay the same for the time being. These expectations were bolstered this week by comments from San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank president Mary Daly and Fed governor Christopher Waller who supported a December rate cut. The economic data released on Wednesday revealed that weekly initial claims for unemployment fell by 6,000, to 216,000 seasonally adjusted claims in the week ending November 22. This is the lowest level of jobless claims since April. It also falls below the 225,000 estimates made by economists.

The economy isn't in recession but it is weak enough for the Fed to make another cut. The Fed has the headroom to make more cuts because there are still many people on unemployment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 423.32 points or 0.90% to 47,535.77. The S&P 500 gained 62.31 or 0.92% to 6,828.06. And the Nasdaq Composite gained 237.69 or 1.03% to 23,262.34. According to CME's FedWatch Tool the expectation of a 25 basis-point cut by the Fed is at 84.9%. This is down from 85.2% the previous session, but still above the 30.1% in a week.

The U.S. market will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and have a reduced session on Friday.

MSCI's global stock index jumped 10.93, or 1.10, points to 1,001.99. This was the fourth consecutive session that MSCI had gained, which is its longest streak since a month. The MSCI index gained 3.4% in the last four days, which is its largest four-day percentage increase since mid-May. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed up 1.09%, its largest daily percentage gain since two weeks.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket currency) fell by 0.26%, reaching 99.60. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.21%, at $1.1593. The pound strengthened by 0.51%, reaching $1.3232. Currency fluctuated between a gain and a loss of 0.34% in response to the UK budget confusion, as the Office for Budget Responsibility released its Economic and Fiscal Outlook early. The British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced that she would be raising taxes on workers, pensioners and investors in order to achieve her deficit reduction targets.

The yield on ten-year gilts was last down by 7 basis points, at 4.426%. The Japanese yen fell 0.25% to 156.47 dollars per dollar, even though sources said the Bank of Japan was preparing the markets for an interest rate hike that could happen as early as next month.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes fell 0.4 basis points to 3.998%.

(source: Reuters)