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Raw sugar prices fall to a five-year low, while cocoa prices also decline

Raw sugar futures fell to their lowest level in five years on Wednesday. The potential for a large global surplus during the 2025/26 crop season is weighing on the prices.

Dealers say that the expected increase in sugar production in India, which is the second largest producer in the world, has added to the concern about excess supplies, as the forecasts of the size of the anticipated global surplus in 2025/26 begin to grow.

Raw sugar futures fell 0.1% to 14.21 cents a lb at 1445 GMT, after hitting a low of 14.05cents.

It appears that the cane used to make ethanol is less than expected. This may be due to favourable rains during monsoon season this year.

In a recent note, broker Czarnikow stated that "we now think India will produce more than sugar in 2025/26 with 32.8 million tonnes due to less sucrose going to ethanol."

India produced approximately 26.1 million metric tonnes in 2024/25.

Czarnikow increased its forecast of the global sugar surplus in 2025/26 by 1.2 millions tons to 8.7million tons.

White sugar increased 0.1%, to $413.90 per ton.

Futures cocoa prices eased as a result of the continued concern about weak demand following last year's price surge.

Barry Callebaut announced on Wednesday that they expect sales of their cocoa products will decline by a percentage between mid-single figures in the coming financial year due to high cocoa prices.

Market attention is also focused on the weather conditions in West Africa where crops are being harvested.

In a report published on Wednesday, LSEG Research and Insights stated that "Wet weather could delay cocoa harvesting in southern Ghana and the western Ivory Coast and dry weather might favor Nigeria and Cameroon’s key crop areas."

London cocoa fell 1.1% to 4,797 pounds per ton, while New York cocoa dropped 0.45% to $6570.

The price of arabica coffee rose 1.6% to $4.1190 per lb, while the price of Robusta coffee increased 0.3%. Reporting by Nigel Hunt Editing Shailesh Kumar and David Goodman

(source: Reuters)