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Top miner: China's coal production limits could be tightened further by the end of the year
A China Coal Energy official said at a Tuesday results briefing that China's coal production curbs could be tightened further by the end of 2025. This would make a recovery in output for the world's biggest producer unlikely. China Coal had previously stated that China has lowered coal production after an unexpected increase in supply during the first half year, which impacted prices. Li Xueyuan is a marketing official at China Coal Energy. She said that the country's asset regulator held meetings with participants in the industry to ask for prices to remain "reasonable and stable". He said that Li believes the supply and demand will be fairly balanced in the short term, as winter heating season is a major factor. China Coal Energy, the listed subsidiary of China Coal Group, the fourth largest coal producer in the country. According to the statistics bureau, China's coal output dropped by 1.8% in September compared to the same period last year, to 411,51 million metric tonnes. This is due to ongoing restrictions. The first nine months of the year saw a 2% increase over the previous period, with 3.57 billion tons. This was largely due to the growth in the first six months. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Colleen howe)
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Over the next 12 months, gold prices are expected to rise to $5,000 per ounce.
On Tuesday, delegates at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)'s annual meeting in Kyoto predicted that the price of gold would reach $4,980 per troy ounce within the next year, an increase of 27% over current levels. Gold's 52% increase this year is on track to be its largest annual rise since 1979. It has broken through $3,000 per troy-ounce in March, and then $4,000 in November - both considered psychological resistance levels by the market. The results of the LBMA survey were compiled in the annual poll for the organisation and presented to delegates during the conference. FEAR OF MISSING THE OUT Gold reached a record high of $4,381 per ounce on 20 October due to political tensions, U.S. Tariff uncertainty, and a fear of missing the gold rush. The LBMA's prediction is compared to a recent poll that predicted an average gold price of $4,275 in 2026. Economic and geopolitical uncertainty keep the metal as a safe haven. The delegates at the LBMA Conference also polled predicted that the silver price would rise to $59 an ounce from $46 per ounce on Tuesday. This year, the silver price is at its highest since 2010. Silver prices have risen 62% this year, most since 2010. They reached a record-high of $54.5 on 17 October due to a strong investment demand and tight supply at the London spot market, as well as increased purchases in India. The forecast also predicted that palladium prices would rise to $1.709 an ounce, from $1.364, and platinum would increase to $1.816 from $1.544. The price of palladium and platinum has risen 76% and 54% respectively so far this season, due to tight mine supplies and fears about U.S. Tariffs. This is causing outflows into U.S. stock. (Reporting and editing by David Holmes; Polina Devtt)
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Mixed results in the Gulf amid low crude oil prices
The major Gulf equity markets traded mixed on Tuesday morning, with investor sentiment being limited by the low crude oil prices and corporate earnings. However, some support was provided by the easing U.S. China trade tensions. Top Chinese and U.S. economists have hammered out a framework for a deal that U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will decide on this week. This should ease fears of tariffs and export restrictions between the two world's largest oil consumers affecting global growth. Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index rose 0.4%. The Saudi National Bank, the largest lender in Saudi Arabia by assets, saw a 0.6% increase. Leejam Sports, however, fell 10% and became the largest loser in the Saudi index following a sharp fall in the third quarter profit. The sports company, which is on track for its largest intraday drop in almost six months, also reduced its quarterly dividend from 2.14 to 0.95 riyals per share. Dubai's main stock index rose 0.2% thanks to a 1.7% increase in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties. The index fell 0.4% in Abu Dhabi due to a decline of 3% in Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank despite the bank reporting a higher third-quarter profit. Mubadala is the largest shareholder of the bank and plans to fully exercise its right to subscribe for the new shares. The oil prices fell on a report stating that eight OPEC+ countries are inclined to increase their crude output modestly for December at the meeting on Sunday. Saudi Arabia is pushing hard to regain market share. The Qatari Index dropped 0.2%. Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company fell more than 3% after reporting only a 0.5% quarterly profit increase.
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Sources say that India's HPCL has issued rare fuel import tenders following issues at its Mumbai refinery.
Two sources familiar with this matter confirmed on Tuesday that Hindustan Petroleum, India's largest oil company, has issued two unusual tenders for the importation of transport fuels in early November. One source said that the company wanted to deliver 34,000 tonnes of gasoline and 65,000 tonnes of gasoil between November 1 and 10, at Mundra port on the west coast of India. The company didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for a comment about the tenders. Second source: "Operational issues" at the Mumbai refinery of the company prompted the tenders to close on Tuesday. In a Monday statement, the company stated that it had sourced 54.6 millions tons of crude from Hindustan Oil Exploration. This oil was found to have corroded its downstream units in October. In a National Stock Exchange statement, it stated that the oil "caused operational issues such as corrosion in downstream units and suboptimal outputs." It added that "potential reasons could be the high chloride and salt content of crude oil." (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Nidhi verma and Mohi Narayan)
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Singapore's Equator and Chinese state-owned firm will export power from Indonesian to Singapore
Equator Renewables Asia, a Singapore-based company, and CRE International, a unit of China’s National Nuclear Corp., will develop a solar project and battery storage system in Indonesia’s Riau Islands, to export clean energy to Singapore. Equator announced that the companies plan to build a photovoltaic system of 900 megawatts (MW) and a battery storage system of 1.2 gigawatt hours (GWh) by 2029. They will also generate 830 GWh per year in clean energy, Equator stated. It said that "CREI would lead the generation side investment, construction and operations of the solar PV facilities and BESS, while Equator would manage transmission and offtake co-ordination." Equator's "multi-billion-dollar-project" will be its first project under the Singapore-Indonesia Renewable Energy Programme. Singapore granted six conditional licenses to the company. The specific terms of the investment were not disclosed. Grid interconnection has been widely hailed as an important tool for reducing the region's increasing reliance on fossil-fuels to generate electricity. Singapore aims to import around 6 gigawatts (or about a third) of low-carbon power by 2035. Malaysia currently provides about 1% (or less) of Singapore's low-carbon electricity. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Lucas Liew)
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Profit booking eases ahead of Trump-Xi talks, Fed rate call
The copper price eased Tuesday, as investors consolidated gains following the record-breaking rally of the previous session. This was fueled by optimism about the upcoming Donald Trump-Xi Jinping meeting and the Federal Reserve rate decision. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract erased the morning's gains and closed daytime trading 1.09% lower, at 86.980 yuan (12,211.15 dollars) per metric tonne. As of 0746 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper at the London Metal Exchange dropped 1.05% to $10,000 a ton. The decline ended London copper's 4-day rally, and Shanghai's 3-day rise after both reached 17-month highs Monday amid optimism the world's two largest economies were close to a deal de-escalating trade tensions. Traders said that investors booked profits when copper reached its highest point. The demand for red metal has continued to decline. The Yangshan Copper Premium The price of copper fell to $35 per ton from $58 at the end of September. The stakes are high before Thursday's meeting in South Korea between U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese equivalent, Xi Jinping. Both leaders are expected finalise a framework for trade that was hammered by officials on both sides at the weekend in Malaysia. Investors will also be watching the Fed rate announcement on Wednesday. The U.S. Central Bank is poised to reduce the short-term lending rate by one quarter of a percentage point. The market will be influenced by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech after the decision. It will indicate whether an additional rate cut, which was widely anticipated, will occur in December. Aluminium, lead, tin, and zinc were all down 0.56%. On the LME, nickel fell 0.69%, tin dropped 0.31%, and lead declined 0.52%. $1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Sumana Jacob-Phillips and Sherry Jackson)
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Iberdrola approves an interim dividend and raises its full-year profit forecast
Iberdrola, the Spanish utility company, announced an interim dividend of 0.25 euro per share after announcing a full-year adjusted profit guidance of 6.6 billion euros (7.7 billion dollars). The company saw double-digit growth. Iberdrola reported a net profit of 5.7 billion euro last year. Iberdrola's reported net profit fell by 3% for the first nine-months of the year, due to the effects of the sale in Mexico of assets in 2024. However, the adjusted net profit without one-offs jumped up by 17% from January to September. Iberdrola Chairman Ignacio Sanchez Galan stated that the improved outlook is due to increased investments in the United States of America and Britain. Iberdrola’s network business has driven gains in operating profits and cash flow. The biggest utility company in Europe by market value plans to invest more than 100 billion euro's worth of money through 2031, as it shifts its focus towards more regulated power grids such as those in Britain and the United States. The company released its latest strategic update last month. It outlines a significant increase in investments into power networks and a more selective approach towards renewable energy projects. It has committed to investing 58 billion Euros through 2028, two-thirds of which will be in power networks in Britain and America. Additional investments of 45 billion Euros are expected between 2029-2031.
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Gold falls to a three-week low amid optimism over US-China trade
Gold prices fell on Tuesday, reaching a three-week-low, as investors awaited major central bank announcements. As of 0652 GMT spot gold fell 1% to $3,941.65 an ounce, its lowest level since 10 October. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 1.5% to $3.957.50 an ounce. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst, said that the defrosting of U.S. China trade relations had a negative impact on the gold price because it has led to fewer safe-haven purchases. Top Chinese and U.S. economists hammered out the framework for a trade agreement that U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese equivalent Xi Jinping will decide on this week. If Trump and Xi had a productive trade meeting this week, gold could be swimming against the flow to a certain degree. Waterer noted that this could be countered if the Fed adopts a more dovish tone in its rate-cutting announcement this week. Trump told reporters that he believed a deal with China would be made. He also announced in Malaysia a series of deals with four Southeast Asian countries on minerals and trade. This was the first stop of a five-day Asia tour. Asian shares continued to consolidate recent gains on Tuesday, as the risk appetite remained high amid hopes of a thawing of global trade tensions. Investors are waiting for any future-oriented language from Fed chair Jerome Powell. The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce interest rates by the end of their policy meeting on Tuesday. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan, are expected to keep rates unchanged this week. The gold price has risen by 53% in the past year. It reached a high of $4,381.21 at the end of October, boosted by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, bets on rate cuts, and central bank purchases. Spot silver dropped 0.8%, to $46.51 an ounce. Platinum fell 2.6%, to $1.549.85, and palladium fell 1.2%, to $1.385.50. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jac-Phillips, Subhranshu Sahu, and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru).
As sanctions threaten Russian supplies, Asia's refining margins are on the rise.
Analysts and trade sources reported that Asian oil refinery profits had risen to their highest level in 20 months. This was due to a strong diesel performance, which has been boosted by a tightening of the outlook following US sanctions against two major Russian suppliers.
Singapore's complex refinery margin, a proxy of Asia's refining profitability rose to almost $9 a barrel Tuesday, the highest since February 2024. LSEG data shows that it was about $2 a barrel early October.
The global diesel market has been the main driver of strength in recent weeks, with a strong demand and tighter supplies.
On Tuesday, the price of refining cracks used to refine 10ppm gasoil benchmarked at sulphur reached $26 per barrel. This is a record high for more than 1 1/2 years.
US SANCTIONS RUSSIAN OPEC EXPORTERS
The markets were further boosted last week by U.S. Sanctions on Russian Oil Exporters Rosneft & Lukoil.
The latest sanctions against Russia could threaten diesel exports, since Russia exports about 1 million barrels of diesel per day," ING commodities analysts said in a Tuesday research note.
There is also a risk that Indian refiners will reduce their run rates if they cease to buy Russian oil. This would result in lower export volumes of middle-distillates from India," ING said.
Diesel supplies from India were shifting to Europe before the latest sanctions as refineries reached peak maintenance and production dropped.
According to June Goh of Sparta Commodities Senior Oil Market Analyst, the current diesel rally is a result of reduced Russian diesel exports as a result Ukrainian drone attacks and seasonal refinery turnarounds, along with limited Chinese clean products export quotas in Q4.
"Also, the distillate arbitrages in the Arab Gulf and West Coast India are pointing East and tightly shutting into Europe. The diesel shortage in Europe is expected to be more severe, said Goh.
The short-term sentiment was also boosted by the market talk that fewer spot shipments from Asian suppliers including South Korea China and Taiwan for November shipments.
Other parts of the Barrels
The profit on processing a barrel gasoline jumped nearly 30% to $13 this month, driven by the tight supply due to unplanned outages in Southeast Asia, while margins are narrowing in other regions as winter approaches, traders reported.
Energy Aspects' monthly outlook on middle distillates stated that "Strong margins will keep refinery operations high and a rising OPEC+ supply, particularly medium sours, is expected to improve crude slate optimisation, boosting clean product yields, and increase crude slate optimisation."
The margins on fuel oil remained mediocre. Low-sulphur cracks are down, while high-sulphur fuels have seen some recent gains.
(source: Reuters)