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The biggest weekly drop in oil prices since two years is expected as the war premium disappears

The oil price fell to its lowest weekly level since March 2023, Friday, due to the lack of supply disruption caused by the Iran-Israel conflict.

Brent crude futures gained 35 cents or 0.52% to $68.08 a barge by 0429 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude rose 40 cents or 0.61% to $65.64. Both contracts are now on track for a weekly decline of around 12%.

The benchmarks have now returned to the level they were before Israel began the conflict on June 13 by firing missiles against Iranian military and nucleonic targets.

Prices reached a five-month-high after the U.S. launched an attack on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. However, prices plummeted to their lowest level in more than a week when U.S. president Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Traders and analysts say they do not see any material impact of the oil crisis at this time.

Macquarie analysts said in a Thursday research note that, "absent the threat of significant disruption to supply, we still see oil as fundamentally undersupplied. Our 2025 balances indicate a surplus of approximately 2.1 million barrels a day (bpd)."

Analysts expect WTI to be around $67 per barrel this year and about $60 next year. After factoring in the geopolitical premium, each forecast is raised by $2.

Prices rose slightly in the second half of the week, as U.S. data revealed that crude oil and fuel stocks had fallen a week before. Demand and refining activities were also on the rise.

The market is beginning to realize that crude oil stocks are extremely low, said Phil Flynn. Senior analyst at Price Futures Group.

A Wall Street Journal article stating that Trump intended to select the next Federal Reserve Chief earlier than usual also supported prices. This fueled new bets that the U.S. would cut interest rates, which is what typically boosts demand for oil. Reporting by Siyi Liu and Nicole Jao, both in Singapore; editing by Tom Hogue and Christopher Cushing

(source: Reuters)