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Prices of palm oil will range from 3,750-4,050 Ringgit before recovering amid trade tensions

Prices of palm oil will range from 3,750-4,050 Ringgit before recovering amid trade tensions

The Malaysian Palm Oil Council said that the price of crude palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 Ringgits in May, before recovering gradually amid the volatility on the vegetable oil markets and energy markets.

MPOC stated that the increased volatility on the market was due to the escalating tensions in trade between the United States, China and OPEC.

It said that the global vegetable oil demand will shift from June to September in favor of palm oil, which would limit further downward pressure on prices.

It added that the reduction of palm oil import duties by India will enhance palm's competitiveness, support increased import volumes and potentially reduce demand for soybean oils.

MPOC reported that the palm oil's competitiveness on China's domestic markets has improved since six months ago. The price difference between palm olein (palm oil) and soybean oils had been reduced to only $51 by May 16.

This improved price parity will drive a recovery of Chinese palm oil imports in particular during the peak summer season demand period in June", it said.

MPOC explained that the increased production of palms in April was due to the delayed harvesting caused by the monsoon. They also said that the production is expected to increase moderately from May to September due to the high basis effect.

The report said that the decline in exports in March and April was a major factor in the rise in stock.

The ASEAN region saw an 8% increase in exports. However, exports to all other regions decreased.

The MPOC stated that the compressed margins in the biodiesel industry were limiting the global biodiesel blend to the minimum mandated levels, thereby dampening the overall demand.

It said that U.S. production of biodiesel has declined, and the consumption of biodiesel feedstocks has also fallen sharply.

It added that Indonesia's biodiesel use in March and April was on track to reach the country’s annual target of 13,7 million tons. (Reporting and editing by Ashley Tang)

(source: Reuters)