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Data paints mixed picture of US economy as yield curve flattens

Data paints mixed picture of US economy as yield curve flattens

On Monday, longer-dated U.S. Treasury bonds fell while shorter-dated bonds rose amid concerns that the U.S. economy will slow down if the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at their current level.

The data released on Monday revealed a mixed economy.

Retail sales increased 0.2% in February after a 1.2% drop in January that was revised downwards. However, the rise fell short of economists' expectations.

Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, building supplies, food, and other services, increased by 1.0% in February, after a 1.0% decrease in January. These core retail sales are the closest to the consumer spending component in gross domestic product.

You can either make positive or negative trends from it. The swings in sales were largely attributable to non-store retailers. Last month, they were weaker than usual. This month, they were strong. Guy LeBas is chief fixed income strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott.

The data also showed that the factory activity in New York State fell this month to its lowest level in almost two years.

The yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year notes fell 1.9 basis points in the last day to 4.289%.

The yield on the 2-year note rose by 1.9 basis points, to 4,034%.

The yield curve between the two-year note and the 10-year note flattened out by about four basis points, or 26 basis points.

Investors are still worried that the new tariffs on trade will slow down the economy and also increase prices.

U.S. president Donald Trump has said that he does not intend to create exemptions for steel and aluminum tariffs. He also said that reciprocal and sectoral duties will be implemented on April 2.

In an interview with The Sunday Times, U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent downplayed recent stock market weakness, saying that corrections are healthy, and the markets will "do great" if administration implements good tax policies, deregulation, and energy security.

This has dashed hopes that the government would change its policies in response to market movements.

Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged when it finishes its two-day session next Wednesday. Chair Jerome Powell will likely repeat his recent remarks that the U.S. Central Bank is not in a hurry to resume rate reductions.

Le Bas stated that "Powell sealed the deal in his Friday speech, just before the blackout, with the message - it's not the right time to think about saving the economy by cutting rates." Le Bas said that there was no reason to think this would change in such a short time.

Fed funds futures traders believe that the U.S. Central bank is most likely to continue rate reductions in June. This week, Fed policymakers are expected to update their economic and interest rate projections.

The traders are also keeping an eye on discussions about a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

Trump announced that he will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin Tuesday to discuss the end of the war in Ukraine after positive discussions between U.S. officials and Russian officials held in Moscow.

The Treasury will offer $13 billion of 20-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities on Tuesday and $18 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities on Thursday. (Reporting by Karen Brettell, Editing by Toby Chopra).

(source: Reuters)