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Brazil's inflation rate slows down in January, but the tightening cycle will continue

Official data released on Tuesday showed that Brazil's inflation was in line with expectations, slowing down from the previous months but still exceeding the upper limit of the target range set by the central bank.

IBGE, the government statistics agency, reported that consumer prices in Latin America's biggest economy rose by 0.16% in January, down from 0.5% in December, and in line with expectations in an economist poll.

According to the agency this was the lowest price increase for January since Brazil established its real currency in 1994. This was due to a sharp drop in electricity prices and a fall in housing costs.

IBGE reported that the annual inflation rate was 4.56%. This is a slight decrease from the 4.83% recorded in the previous months.

Brazil's central banks targets an inflation rate of 3% plus or minus 1.5% and tightens its monetary policies to achieve this goal.

In January, policymakers unanimously agreed to raise the benchmark

Interest rate

The second consecutive meeting saw a 100-basis-point increase to 13.25% and a signal of another such hike in March.

Kimberley Sperrfechter, of Capital Economics, said that the latest inflation number "is unlikely" to stop the central bank from increasing the Selic rate by another 100bp. She noted that inflation expectations remain well above target.

"For the moment, we believe that the hike in March will be the end of this tightening cycle. However, the risks to our forecast are to the upside." Reporting by Gabriel Araujo, editing by Mark Heinrich

(source: Reuters)