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Trump's threats against Russian crude buyers have boosted oil prices from a 5-week low.
On Wednesday, oil prices rose, recovering from a five week low the day before, amid concerns about supply disruptions following U.S. president Donald Trump's threat of tariffs against India for its Russian crude purchase. Brent crude futures increased 29 cents or 0.4% to $67.93 per barrel at 0119 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude rose 28 cents or 0.4% to $65.44 per barrel. The two contracts both fell more than one dollar on Tuesday, settling at their lowest level in five weeks. This was the fourth session that they had lost money, due to concerns about oversupply from OPEC+’s planned September production increase. Investors are assessing if India will reduce their Russian crude purchases as a response to Trump's threat, which could tighten the supply. But it is yet to be seen whether this will happen, said Yuki Takashima. He said that if India's imports remained steady, WTI would likely stay in the $60-$70 price range for the remainder of the month. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies agreed on Sunday to increase oil production by 547,000 barges per day in September. This will bring an end to the most recent cut in output earlier than expected. OPEC+ produces about half the oil in the world. For several years, the group had curtailed production to help the market. This year, the group has accelerated its output to regain some market share. The U.S. demand that India stop buying Russian crude oil in order to pressure Moscow to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine may disrupt supply as Indian refiners look for alternatives, and Russian crude will be redirected to another buyer. Trump threatened on Tuesday to increase tariffs on Indian products over the country's Russian-oil purchases in the next 24 hour. Trump said that falling energy prices may also pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into ending the war in Ukraine. New Delhi branded Trump's threats "unjustified", and pledged to protect its own economic interests. This has exacerbated the trade dispute between India and the United States. Takashima, from Nomura, also cited industry data that showed crude inventories in America, the largest oil consumer in the world, as a positive for the oil markets. Sources citing American Petroleum Institute data said Tuesday that U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.2 millions barrels during the past week. This compares to a poll estimation of a 600,000.0 barrels draw in the week ending August 1. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly inventories on Wednesday. (Reporting and editing by Yuka Obaashi; Christian Schmollinger).
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The monsoon season peaks in South China, causing landslides to occur and an increase in viral cases
Rescue crews in south China prepared for the final downpour of heavy rain on Wednesday. They raced between torrential downpours, clearing mudslides and draining waterlogged roads that submerged cars. The East Asian monsoon is at its peak. Forecasters warn of more thunderstorms a day after the skies over Hong Kong and high-tech cities in China's Pearl River Delta went black, unleashing the heaviest rainfall of August since 1884 to the Asian financial center. Videos show that Guangdong province in southern China has transformed its shopping streets into flooded waterways, which is worsening the outbreak of Chikungunya. The mosquitoes are flourishing in the stagnant floodwaters. Guangdong reported over 7,000 cases so far. Since early July, China has been hit by heavy downpours. The East Asian monsoon is stalling over the north and south of the country. This has caused weeks of chaos in the atmosphere. The shifting pattern is attributed to climate change by meteorologists. Flash floods are displacing thousands of people and threatening billions in economic losses. Beijing allocated more than 1 billion yuan (139.21 millions) to disaster relief efforts on Tuesday, including subsidies to repair damage to grain-growing fields. After causing at least five deaths in Guangdong, over the weekend, the extreme rain is expected to subside in the next few days. This was after a massive search and rescue operation that involved over 1,300 rescuers. State media reported that rescue crews rushed on Tuesday to open drains and remove water from urban areas in between showers. The deluge caused mudslides, which brought silt, trees, and debris onto highways. They also exposed cabling, embedded infrastructure, and washed away road foundations. The rains have pushed Guangdong's flood-preparation to the limit. According to Chinese state-run media, 16 rivers in the province are at levels where they could breach their banks. Water levels at two hydrology stations have reached their highest levels since 2017 and 2018. Officials from the Ministry of Emergency Management warned on Tuesday that even though the East Asian Monsoon is beginning to fade, the worst could still be ahead. Two to three typhoons are expected to hit in August.
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Disney's ESPN acquires NFL media assets as part of a major deal
The National Football League and Walt Disney's ESPN have reached a historic agreement to buy NFL Network from the NFL in exchange for a 10% stake in the network. The deal, in which ESPN claims it will enhance the content of its upcoming ESPN streaming services, is subjected to regulatory approval. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. ESPN will also acquire NFL Fantasy, an online offering, as well as the rights to distribute NFL RedZone to its cable television and satellite television subscribers. Disney CEO Robert Iger made a statement saying that the announcement today "paves the road for America's most popular sports brand, ESPN, to provide an even more compelling NFL experience in a manner only Disney and ESPN can deliver," he said. According to sources, The Athletic reported that the deal would be announced soon. ESPN declined to make any comment about the reported amount. Iger said that ESPN's streaming service could be launched as soon as this month. It will cost $29.99 a month. The service will give you access to ESPN's professional and college sports portfolio, including the NFL and the NBA, the WNBA and MLB, and the NCAA Women's Basketball Championship. It also includes studio shows like "SportsCenter" or "Pardon the Interruption". In a press release, ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro stated that by combining NFL media assets and ESPN's reach with innovation, they would create a premier destination to football fans. In 2003, the NFL Network was launched to take advantage of the revenues generated by subscriptions to cable and satellite services. It gained some traction by introducing Thursday Night Football but never became a competitor to ESPN. ESPN will own and operate all TV and streaming rights for the NFL Network. The NFL Network will continue to broadcast seven games per year. Roger Goodell, NFL commissioner, said that the sale of the network to ESPN would build on its remarkable legacy and provide more NFL football in innovative ways for fans. RedZone allows NFL fans to view scoring opportunities in Sunday afternoon games. The NFL will continue to produce, own and operate NFL RedZone, while retaining the rights to digitally distribute it. The NFL will also retain ownership over certain media properties such as NFL Films and platforms like the NFL Podcast Network, NFL+, and NFL+. (Reporting and editing by Lisa Richwine, Dawn Chmielewski)
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Australia's Great Barrier Reef experiences record coral loss following mass bleaching
Research released on Wednesday revealed that Australia's Great Barrier Reef suffered the greatest decline in coral coverage in two of three of its regions in the past year. This was after a mass coral bleaching which was among the worst ever recorded. The Australian Institute of Marine Sciences reported that the reef experienced its largest annual decline of coral cover in the northern and southern areas since monitoring began in 1979. Coral cover dropped between a quarter to a third following several years of steady growth. Mike Emslie is the head of the institute's long-term monitoring programme. This is a phenomenon which has emerged in the last 15 to 20 years, and it indicates an ecosystem that is under stress. The world's largest ecosystem, the reef, extends for 2,400 km (1 500 miles) off of the coast of Queensland, in the north. Since 2016, there have been five summers with mass coral bleaching. This occurs when large sections of reef turn white from heat stress. They are then at greater risk of dying. Report: The 2024 event was the largest ever recorded event on the reef with extreme to high bleaching in all three of its regions. The Great Barrier Reef does not appear on the UNESCO list of endangered world heritage sites, but the UN has recommended that it be included. Australia has been lobbying for years to remove the reef from the endangered list as it could harm tourism. The reef contributes A$6.4billion ($4.2billion) to Australia's economy each year. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast in Sydney, Alasdair pal in Sydney)
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Suncor Energy exceeds its quarterly profit forecasts on the back of higher production
Suncor Energy, a Canadian oil company, exceeded analyst expectations for the second quarter profit on Tuesday as increased output offset the impact from weak commodity prices. Canada's oil-sands industry remains resilient, despite the fact that oil price volatility has pushed the energy sector into a slump. The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline has provided Canadian producers with access to international markets and reduced their reliance on U.S. pipe networks. It now accounts for about 9% of Canada’s total crude oil exports. Canada exports almost 4 million barrels per day (bpd). Suncor's quarterly upstream production increased to 808100 bpd, from 770600 bpd one year earlier. Refinery throughput increased 2.6%, to 442,000 barrels per day (bpd), during the third quarter. Refinery utilization also improved from 92% to 95%. Suncor's results are not comparable Imperial Oil Last week, the company said that weak oil prices and declines in refinery output impacted its second-quarter profits. The Canadian oil sector undergoes peak maintenance in the second quarter. This can cause production to be offline for several weeks or months. Suncor CEO Rich Kruger stated that the company's strong quarter performance was driven "by the outstanding execution of major downstream and upstream turnaround activities, which were completed safely and on time". The Canadian producer has also reduced its forecast for current-year capital expenditures, which are now expected to range between C$5.7 billion and C$5.9billion, as opposed to its previous forecast of C$6.1 to C$6.3billion. According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG, the Calgary, Alberta based company reported an adjusted loss of 71 Canadian dollars per share ($0.5154), beating the average analyst estimate of 69 Canadian dollars per share.
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US Judge blocks Trump Administration from diversion of disaster prevention grants
A federal judge on Tuesday blocked the Trump Administration from diverting over $4 billion from a program of grants designed to protect local communities from natural disasters. The U.S. District Court Judge Richard Stearns issued a preliminary order in Boston prohibiting the government from using money allotted to the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities Program for other purposes. Last month, twenty mostly Democratic states led by Massachusetts & Washington sued the Administration, claiming that the Federal Emergency Management Agency did not have the power to cancel BRIC without congressional approval. FEMA is part of Homeland Security. Both agencies did not immediately respond to requests for comments. Andrea Joy Campbell said that her office would continue to fight to prevent the federal government "from effectively abandoning state- and local-level communities who rely on federal funds to protect their residents". The BRIC program was created in 2018, during the first term of Republican President Donald Trump. It helps local and state governments protect their major infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and highways, before disasters like hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes occur. According to the lawsuit FEMA has approved grants totaling $4.5 billion for almost 2,000 projects in coastal states over the past four years. The agency ended the program in April, claiming it was ineffective, wasteful and politicized. Stearns stated that although FEMA doesn't appear to have canceled grants since then, states shouldn’t wait until they lose funding before suing, and the cancellation of grants suggests FEMA considered a shutdown to be a fait accompli. He said that the states had shown a real chance of irreparable damage if the BRIC Program ended. The judge stated that there is a public interest inherent in making sure the government adheres to the law. Also, the hardship that could be caused to the states by the repurposing of funds is significant. Stearns said that the BRIC program was designed to save lives and protect people from natural disasters. The potential harm to the government is minimal. The lawsuit was also filed by Arizona, California and Colorado. Other states who joined the suit include Maine, Maryland, Michigan Minnesota, New Jersey New York, North Carolina Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont, Wisconsin, Delaware. Reporting by Jonathan Stempel, New York; editing by Howard Goller
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Tariffs continue to pinch earnings, from ingredient costs to declining demand.
Caterpillar and Marriott, among others, reported on Tuesday that the tariff war waged by Donald Trump has resulted in higher prices and a weaker demand. Global tariff tracker estimates that global companies who have reported earnings this quarter will see a loss of $15 billion in profits by 2025. The majority of the affected sectors are industrial, manufacturing, and automotive, while financial and technology sectors are less affected. Trump said that tariffs were necessary to correct the U.S.'s trade imbalances, and to restore manufacturing power. He also said that the import taxes would bring more jobs and investment into the United States. Steve Sosnick is the chief market analyst for Interactive Brokers, Greenwich Connecticut. He said, "I believe we are just getting started." "The tariffs have just begun, particularly with major trading partners such as Canada, China, and India still in flux." The earnings report on Tuesday shows the many ways that trade policy affects companies. From the increasing costs of metals and other imported materials to the slipping consumer confidence which has slashed demand, the results show the impact of the various aspects of the trade policy. Caterpillar saw its revenue fall by 0.7%, but the cost of its goods increased by 6.5%. CEO Joe Creed said that tariffs "will likely be a greater headwind for profitability in 2025's second half." Molson Coors, a beer maker in the United States, said that it expected to incur costs between $20 million to $35 million during the second half due to an increase in aluminum prices in the Midwest of the U.S. The tariffs on aluminum imported into the United States have been doubled from 25% to 50%. White House Spokesman Kush Deai said in a press release that the President's trade agreements "have opened up unprecedented market access to American exports in economies worth more than $32 trillion and with 1.2 billion inhabitants." MARKET RESILIENCE Markets have, however, remained resilient, even as Trump's policy continues to change. He announced on Tuesday that, as part of a continuing spat with India over its purchases from Russia of oil, he will raise the tariffs on goods imported to India from their current 25%. The U.S. equity market has rebounded from its April lows after what Trump called "Liberation Day," in which he unleashed an international tariff wave. S&P 500 reached all-time highs in January on the back of solid earnings. The Magnificent Seven were the leaders, a grouping of tech companies who have benefited from a surge of investment in artificial-intelligence. According to LSEG, of the 370 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings, 80.3% reported quarterly earnings exceeding analyst estimates. Their earnings growth rate was 11.9%. "We're figuring out some industries might be affected but they may also gain, because (new markets) are now open to them which may have been shut in the past. Kim Forrest is the chief investment officer of Bokeh capital Partners. Recent market strategists have warned of a possible correction, but remain optimistic. Analysts at Evercore ISI believe that the market may dip between 7% to 15% during the period of September-October as inflation and growth slow down. However, the AI-driven bull run should continue. Yum Brands' profits were hurt by higher ingredient costs. Like McDonald's, the fast-food chain relied on meal deals that are affordable to increase demand. Marriott International lowered its forecast for 2025 due to a softer travel market, and agribusiness giant Archer-Daniels Midland reported its lowest profit in 5 years. While some market participants said that the uncertainty caused by tariffs was likely to continue this year with more than 100 global companies withdrawing their financial guidance or reducing it, others stated in the long run, investors and companies would be able see some green sprouts. Ross Mayfield is an investment strategy analyst with Baird. Companies will have to be very deft to navigate these (tariffs), and there is no other choice than to pass on some of the costs to consumers. S&P margins are hovering at record highs. It wouldn't be surprising if they dipped a bit in the next quarters.
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Officials appointed by Moscow say that five people were killed in the Ukrainian attack on Russian-held Luhansk Region
Five people were killed in a Ukrainian attack on municipal employees in the Russian-held Luhansk Region on Tuesday, according to officials appointed by Russia in the area. The strike in Svatove killed four workers, according to Leonid Pasechnik the Russia-appointed regional head. He wrote in Telegram about the deaths. The Russian state news agency TASS reported that the head of the regional health service said a worker injured in the strike died in hospital. Luhansk was one of the four Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia in 2022, along with Donetsk and Kherson. This happened seven months after Russia launched its full-scale attack on its smaller neighbor. In June, Moscow announced that it had gained control of the entire Luhansk Region. It controls parts of three others. (Reporting by ; Editing by Sandra Maler)
US natgas output to decline as need hits record high in 2024, EIA says
U.S. natural gas production will decline in 2024 while demand will increase to a record high, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short-term Energy Outlook on Wednesday.
The EIA predicted dry gas production will alleviate from a record 103.8 billion cubic feet each day in 2023 to 103.3 bcfd in 2024 as several producers decrease drilling activities this year after average monthly spot gas rates at the Henry Center benchmark << NG-W-HH-SNL > was up to a 32-year low in March.
In 2025, EIA projected output would rise to 104.5 bcfd.
The agency also predicted domestic gas intake would increase from a record 89.1 bcfd in 2023 to 90.0 bcfd in 2024 in the past reducing back to 89.6 bcfd in 2025.
If the projections are proper, 2024 would be the first time output decreases considering that 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic cut need for the fuel. It would also be the very first time need increases for four years in a row because 2016.
The latest forecasts for 2024 were lower than EIA's. forecasts in October of 103.5 bcfd for supply and 90.1 bcfd for. usage.
The company anticipated average U.S. liquefied gas (LNG). exports would reach 12.1 bcfd in 2024 and 13.8 bcfd in 2025, up. from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2023.
The firm forecasted U.S. coal production would fall from. 578.0 million short loads in 2023 to 504.7 million loads in 2024,. which would be the lowest level considering that 1964, and 469.1 million. lots in 2025, which would be the lowest considering that 1962, as gas and. sustainable sources of power displace coal-fired plants.
EIA forecasted co2 (CO2) emissions from fossil. fuels would relieve from 4.787 billion metric loads in 2023 to 4.768. billion metric heaps in 2024 as coal use reduces, before edging. approximately 4.774 billion metric loads in 2025 as petroleum use. boosts.
That compares to carbon emissions of 4.585 billion metric. heaps in 2020, the most affordable level since 1983, when the pandemic. sapped need for energy.
(source: Reuters)