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Russian ministry sees 2024 GDP at 2.8%, but with greater inflation, weaker rouble

Russia's economy ministry enhanced its expectations for 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) development to 2.8% from 2.3% in brand-new projections released on Tuesday, while imagining a weaker rouble and diminishing current account surplus in the years to come.

Russia's financial rebound from a 2022 downturn relies greatly on state-funded arms and ammunition production as Moscow prosecutes its war in Ukraine, masking issues that are hindering an enhancement in Russians' living requirements.

The International Monetary Fund this month raised its 2024 projection for Russia's GDP growth to 3.2% from the 2.6% predicted in January, pointing to strong government spending and investment associated to the war, as well as higher consumer spending in a tight labour market and strong oil export profits in spite of Western sanctions.

Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, speaking at a federal government meeting, said the primary factor behind financial development was domestic customer and financial investment need.

The economy ministry expects GDP growth of around 2.3% in 2025-2026, while the rouble is forecast to make a stable decrease to trade at approximately 101.2 to the dollar in 2026, compared with present levels around 93.

Russia expects oil prices to fall, the projection showed, and the export price of Russian oil until 2027 is seen at $65 a. barrel. Russia's Urals crude << URL-E > presently trades at around. $ 79 per barrel.

Russia's success in preventing the West's oil cost cap,. through rerouting exports to friendly destinations and the. opaque ownership of a so-called shadow fleets of ships to. transportation oil, has relieved sanctions pressure, however minimized export. profits can still harm the deficit spending.

DANGERS

Russia's war in Ukraine is draining state coffers - the. liquid part of Moscow's rainy day fund has fallen dramatically given that. the intrusion - however financial experts say that even oil costs as low as. $ 60 a barrel still allow Russia to keep a fiscal safety net. that might last for several years.

Lowered export revenues are seen squeezing Russia's trade. and bank account balances. The trade balance is anticipated to. stop by more than 30% in the coming years, compared to. previous estimates and expectations for the current account. surplus are down threefold, to as low as $25.3 billion in 2026.

Threats likewise remain, Reshetnikov stated. Externally, this is. primarily a slowdown in the international economy as a whole. and in the economies of countries that are Russia's primary trading. partners, in addition to continued sanctions pressure.

The ministry improved forecasts genuine non reusable earnings. and retail trade. Earnings, partially driven by high government. spending and the tight labour market, are seen increasing 5.2%. in 2024, up from 2.7% development in the previous forecast.

The ministry expects inflation to end the year at 5.1%,. above the previous quote and the central bank's 4% target. Analysts anticipate rate of interest, presently at 16%, to stay in. double digits up until a minimum of mid-2025.

The ministry does not expect Russia resolving its labour. scarcity quandary at any time soon, according to the projections. Unemployment, presently at a record low 2.8%, is seen hovering. at 3% from 2024-2027.

(source: Reuters)